By the Numbers: Game 13 vs. Iowa (Big Ten Championship Game) | By Fans...For Fans Since 1999 | UMGOBLUE.COM Michigan Wolverine Football & Basketball

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines scaled the mountain, and didn’t even have to die trying. While the Big House rocked on a snowy day, Michigan was physically dominant on offense and on defense as they pounded the Ohio State Buckeyes 42-27.

NEXT UP: vs. Iowa: 21st, 13.7

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 11.1, Michigan Win Probability 74%

I’ve mentioned it a few times this season, but it seems to be getting more and more true. I think the Vegas bookmakers may have reverse-engineered the SP+ projections. Currently, Michigan (-10.5) is projected to win by 11.1 by Connelly’s model.

Michigan Offense (22nd) vs. Iowa Defense (4th)

Iowa’s defense is an open book. They have run almost the exact same system for a decade. The Hawkeye’s core philosophy is almost exactly what Michigan’s defensive approach was last week versus OSU. They are going to stay true to their principles, keep WRs in front of them and tackle well. Their best defensive player is LB Jack Campbell. Campbell has racked up 121 tackles in 12 games. Hassan Haskins versus Jack Campbell could be marketed individually as the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object. Josh Gattis will likely tap into some of his creativity to find favorable matchups on the edges and underneath the Iowa coverage.

Michigan Defense (7th) vs. Iowa Offense (92nd)

The Hawkeye’s offense is the lowest ranked unit Michigan has faced since Indiana. They have two quarterbacks that have separate strengths, but neither has seized control of the offensive unit. Of greatest concern for Iowa fans is they do NOT have their normal stable of NFL-bound offensive tackles. The Hawkeyes’ are led by their All Conference center, Tyler Linderbaum. They will need to find some running room inside, because they stand almost zero chance of slowing down Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo on passing downs.

PREDICTION: Kirk Ferentz and Jim Harbaugh have spoken glowingly about one another this week. It’s pretty easy to see many similarities in their philosophies, and how they’ve built their respective programs. For Michigan, the key will be eliminating self-inflicted wounds. Taking care of the football, and making solid pre-snap decisions has been a strength of the Wolverines and their QB Cade McNamara. Only 3 teams have scored more than 20 points against Mike MacDonald’s defense. If the Wolverines avoid shooting themselves in the foot, I can’t see Iowa becoming the 4th.
Michigan 31 Iowa 13