Tag: By the Numbers

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By the Numbers: Game 7 @ Illinois

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines couldn’t hold a 4th quarter lead against the Washington Huskies as they headed into the bye week.  Eventually the big plays allowed by the defense, and two costly turnovers by the offense, fueled Washington’s 27-17 victory. 

NEXT UP: @ Illinois: SP+ 47th, 6.3

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 4.9, Michigan Win Probability 62%

As Michigan rested last week, the Illini were sweating out a 1-point overtime victory over SP+ 82nd ranked Purdue.  I think both the SP+ model and the Vegas odds would have favored the 5-1 Illinois at home if not for that eye-opener against the Boilermakers. 

Michigan Offense (63rd) vs. Illinois Defense (43rd) 

Surprisingly, the Illinois defense provides an advantageous match up for the Wolverines.  The Illini have given up 239 yards rushing in each of their last two games to Purdue and to Penn State  This could be exactly what the doctor ordered for a Michigan offensive line that has yet to click as a unit.  While the Wolverines have had a couple big rushing performances in 2024, they still are searching for consistency.  In Jack Tuttle’s first start for Michigan, their ability to lean on a high success rate in the run game should open throwing lanes to Coleston Loveland and Amorion Walker down the field.  Hopefully left tackle #78 Myles Hinton is back in the starting lineup.  He is the one Michigan lineman who has been able to move defenders off the line of scrimmage regularly. 

Michigan Defense (9th) vs. Illinois Offense (58th)

Early in the season, my assumption was that Michigan’s defensive struggles were mostly due to lack of offensive success putting the D into bad spots.  While that was certainly happening, it was not the case in the Washington loss.  The Huskies put up a gaudy 47% success rate against the Michigan defense, including 45% success on 3rd down.  The Wolverines need their playmakers to step forward in the biggest moments.  Hopefully the bye week helped a few key players heal, especially edge rusher #8 Derrick Moore.  Illinois quarterback Luke Altmeyer has been fantastic this season.  His only poor performance was the one loss for the Illini at Penn State.  The Michigan defensive front will be able to win 1-on-1 against this offensive line, but coordinator Wink Martindale will have to do a better job of pairing disguised coverages with his rushes.  If Altmeyer is allowed to make simple decisions and get the ball out of his hand quickly, this game could look a lot like the Washington game. 

PREDICTION: Most of the focus locally and nationally seems to be on the Michigan offense as they trot out their 3rd starting QB of the season.  While that is understandable, this game will be decided by Michigan’s defense.  Our preseason predictions were looking for an elite defense to lead the Wolverines while a new offensive lineup figured things out.  The offense has a golden opportunity to reestablish a dominant run game, so I am placing the focus squarely on the defense to be elite.  For now, I will predict that the Wolverine defensive front will cause just enough havoc to allow Michigan to escape Champaign with a victory. 
Michigan 24 Illinois 21 (PRESEASON Michigan 20 Illinois 7)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 10/13/24, 4-2

SP+ Overall: 21st (↑6), 13.7
SP+ Offense: 63rd (↑5), 28.1
SP+ Defense: 9th (↑3), 14.8
SP+ Special Teams: 11th (↓2), 0.4

AP Poll: 24th (same), 133

Coaches’ Poll: 22nd (↓1), 223

CFP Rank: N/A

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By the Numbers: Game 5 vs. Minnesota

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines scored with under a minute remaining to take the lead, and held on to secure the 27-24 victory over the USC Trojans in an instant classic. The defense held their own against a top-tier offense, and Kalel Mullings was an absolute beast on the ground, including a Jim Brown style rumble for 63 yards on the game winning drive. 

NEXT UP: vs. Minnesota: SP+ 47th, 6.3

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 12.0, Michigan Win Probability 77%

The Vegas lines are finally shifting closer to the SP+ model output.  Right now Michigan is a 10.5 point betting favorite, and SP+ likes the Wolverines by 12.  I am surprised Minnesota’s defense stayed ranked in the top 20 after allowing Iowa to score 31 points last week.

Michigan Offense (61st) vs. Minnesota Defense (17th) 

All the analysis and prognostication is centered on this match up with Alex Orji making his second start at QB.  After going 7-for-12 for 32 yards passing last game, a huge portion of the Michigan fan base wants to see more passing game competence.  Unfortunately for them, rainy conditions in the Big House will likely limit the play calling options available to offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell. The Wolverines are completely satisfied duplicating what worked for them last week versus USC, because it also worked just fine for Iowa in a 31-14 victory in Minneapolis.  For me, the most important thing is getting your five best offensive weapons onto the field together as frequently as possible.  Kalel Mullings, Coleston Loveland, Donovan Edwards, Max Bredeson, and Semaj Morgan should see a lion’s share of the snaps in order to threaten the entire field.

Michigan Defense (5th) vs. Minnesota Offense (89th)

Put very simply, this is a David vs. Goliath mismatch.  Michigan has to handle their business down-to-down to avoid giving the Gophers any sense of confidence.  Under PJ Fleck, Minnesota has been a run-first offense with a smash mentality similar to Sherrone Moore’s Wolverines.  However, this year they are more reliant on a super dangerous wide receiver #9 Daniel Jackson, and transfer QB from New Hampshire #16 Max Brosmer.  One potential snag for Michigan could be depth at the defensive back position.  Will Johnson was not 100% healthy to finish last week’s game, so #20 Jyaire Hill and #12 Aamir Hall may be called on to answer the challenge against Jackson.  I expect Michigan’s defensive line to wreak havoc on the Gophers all day, but the defensive backs will have to avoid coverage busts and missed tackles that have been too commonplace to start this season.

PREDICTION: Michigan will likely need to build their own energy down on the sidelines.  It’s a grey, rainy day in Ann Arbor that might suppress the enthusiasm of the Big House crowd after last week’s classic comeback.  I expect the defense to set up the offense with a couple short fields, and if Orji and the offense cash those possessions in early, this could become a blow out.  Right now, I need to see a little cleaner execution from the offensive line, and more creativity with personnel from Kirk Campbell before I start predicting high score totals for the Wolverines.

Michigan 21 Minnesota 6 (PRESEASON Michigan 24 Minnesota 9)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/14/24, 3-1

CFP Rank: N/A

SP+ Overall: 15th (↓3), 15.8
SP+ Offense: 61st (↓4), 28.5
SP+ Defense: 5th (↓1), 13.1
SP+ Special Teams: 2nd (↑9), 0.4

AP Poll: 12th (↑6), 805

Coaches’ Poll: 12th (↑5), 692

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By the Numbers: Game 4 vs. USC

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan handled their business early, but still didn’t look sharp in the passing game.  The Wolverines overcame 3 interceptions and a -2 turnover margin to defeat the Arkansas State Red Wolves 28-18. 

NEXT UP: vs. USC: SP+ 17th, 16.0

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 3.9, Michigan Win Probability 60%

The SP+ model is blind to the QB switch to Alex Orji.  We shall see if the offense ticks up from 57th nationally with the added dimension to the run game.  USC meanwhile is climbing as a defense, but with only two games of data to add atop their preseason ranking.

Michigan Offense (57th) vs. USC Defense (70th) 

The switch to Orji as the starting quarterback will get the majority of media attention.  But, the real test is how much continued improvement we see from the offensive line.  LT Myles Hinton has been good, but nobody else up front has stood out for positive performance.  At a minimum, this unit needs to clean up the mental mistakes.  For the Wolverines to be successful, they need to be successful on standard downs, especially 1st & 10.  Consistently putting 2nd & 5, or 3rd & 1 in front of Alex Orji will allow coordinator Kirk Campbell to utilize any page from the playbook that they’ve installed. 

Michigan Defense (4th) vs. USC Offense (4th)

Very similarly to the Texas matchup, this is strength-on-strength.  Lincoln Riley knows how to maximize his QB’s talent.  Miller Moss is not a serious run threat, but they will look to pick on the linebackers with RPO’s, as well as attacking Jayaire Hill down the field.  Wink Martindale showed that he can turn the dial down last week versus Arkansas State.  Early in this game, we want to see Michigan hang back and force USC to hand he ball off into light boxes.  The Wolverines’ defensive line should be able to win one-on-one matchups inside, allowing the linebackers to stay in passing lanes. 

PREDICTION: Michigan needs their best performance of the season to beat the Trojans.  There are a handful of 50/50 what-if matchups, and I think Michigan needs to win three or four of those coin flips.  We need Orji to threaten the safeties with his legs (good blocking) and with his arm (stretching deep when they creep forward).  We also need to move the chains consistently enough that USC is forced to drive 70+ yards on each of their possessions.  Keep the game close, and look to wear the Trojans down in the 4th quarter.

More bad news for Michigan as we hear that tight end Coleston Loveland will be sidelined with a shoulder injury.  This puts more pressure on Kirk Campbell to scheme up plays that will give Alex Orji a chance to hit an open receiver.  When in doubt, pull the ball down and run!  It just feels like there may be too many what-ifs for Michigan to overcome.
Michigan 20 USC 24 (PRESEASON Michigan 27 USC 10)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/17/24, 2-1

CFP Rank: N/A

SP+ Overall: 12th (↑1), 17.4
SP+ Offense: 57th (↑10), 28.4
SP+ Defense: 4th (↓1), 11.3
SP+ Special Teams: 11th (↑13), 0.3

AP Poll: 18th (↓1), 447

Coaches’ Poll: 17th (↓1), 439

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By the Numbers: Game 3 vs. Arkansas State

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan was outclassed by Texas in the Big House, and scored late to post a 31-12 score that looks better than the game felt.  Davis Warren threw two interceptions, and the Wolverines’ defense showed they are human.

NEXT UP: vs. Ark. St.: SP+ 99th, -9.4

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 28.9, Michigan Win Probability 96%

While the Wolverines were thoroughly outplayed last weekend by the Texas Longhorns, the SP+ model did not shift much.  Michigan drops one spot to 13th overall.  The even wilder quirk of the model is that Texas’ unit rankings each improved, but overall the Longhorns also dropped one spot to #4.  Arkansas State is in alignment with average G5 teams.

Michigan Offense (67th) vs. Ark. St. Defense (124th) 

This week is potentially a now-or-never moment for Michign’s offense.  The Red Wolves bring a bottom feeder defensive unit to Ann Arbor.  We can use any number of traditional stats or advanced stats to measure the offense this week, but I just want to see Michigan move the line of scrimmage at the snap.  Arkansas State is giving up over 140 yards rushing per game so far versus Central Arkansas and Tulsa.  This is a big week for first year Offensive Line Coach Grant Newsome.  Michigan must re-establish their identity as a smash offense.  Any of the quarterbacks on the roster require an efficient run game to open up explosive plays in the air, or even using Oriji’s legs for chunk yardage gains.  Priority #1 for Michigan on Saturday has to be clean execution up front on offense.  

Michigan Defense (3rd) vs. Ark. St. Offense (69th)

Maybe it’s unfair to keep comparing the 2024 Michigan Football team to the 2023 team that won the national title.  But, if the Wolverines are going to maintain the program standard under first-year head coach Sherrone Moore, this defense will have to be just as good as last year’s unit.  The major challenge to accomplishing that objective is the 2024 depth being much thinner this season.  The Wolverines can no longer rely on a dominant performance from the 1st and 2nd units interchangeably.  So, to have success remotely comparable to last year’s defense, Wink Martindale will have to find a way to get off the field when they have the chance.  Hopefully, the offense will continue to evolve and improve enough to help rest the 1st team defense so they are fresh for the key moments late in games.

Arkansas State is almost exactly average nationally as an offensive unit.  They are averaging 426 total yards per game so far against a couple low-level opponents.  Quarterback Jaylen Raynor will be looking to push the ball down the field and challenge Michigan’s DBs who aren’t named Will Johnson.  Raynor is also the leading rusher for the Red Wolves through two weeks.  The Wolverines will definitely be rotating many players into this game as they try to shore up their depth.  If they can consistently get to Raynor and hit him, they will have some chances to create a few turnovers in this game. 

PREDICTION: This should be the last week where we enter the game with major question marks about how Michigan will manage personnel.  If Alex Orji is getting more snaps, especially consecutively, then they see his ability as critical to supporting the run game.  When Davis Warren and/or Jack Tuttle is at quarterback, the Wolverines are stating they think the run game will continue to improve without adding the QB run plays.  Either way, the key players are on the offensive line.  I am especially looking to see how Newsome is rotating players at right tackle. 

The Wolverines have a major talent advantage in this game, and expectations should match that edge.  Behind the scenes, we really need to evaluate how this group of leaders (both players & coaches) respond to being punched in the mouth.  If Michigan comes out hungry, looking to prove themselves all over again, then we can all move forward with more confidence into B1G Ten play.  I expect to see better balance and complementary football, but the offense will still be showing some growing pains.
Michigan 27 Ark. St. 6 (PRESEASON Michigan 33 Ark. St. 6)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/08/24, 1-1

SP+ Overall: 13th (↓1), 16.9

SP+ Offense: 67th (↓11), 27.7
SP+ Defense: 3rd (same), 10.9
SP+ Special Teams: 24th (↓16), 0.2

AP Poll: 17th (↓7), 503
Coaches’ Poll: 16th (↓7), 501
CFP Rank: N/A

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By the Numbers: Game 15 CFP Final vs. Washington

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines came back to force overtime on the Alabama Crimson Tide.  Then Blake Corum and the Michigan defense put the finishing touches on an epic 27-20 victory in the Rose Bowl to qualify for the CFP National Championship game.

NEXT UP: vs. Washington: SP+ 12th, 18.8

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 12.2, Michigan Win Probability 76%

The post-bowl SP+ rankings show why Bill Connelly is constantly tweaking the algorithm, especially as college football changes over time.  Michigan slid to #2 overall in the rankings because Georgia won by 60 over Florida State.  There is currently no way for the model to adjust for significant injuries or opt-outs, so the dozen or so missing players for the Noles were not accounted for. 

Michigan Offense (12th) vs. Washington Defense (44th) 

A huge advantage for Michigan exists when they have possession against the Huskies’ defense.  It is not a bad defense, especially in high leverage moments.  However, the Wolverines played eight opponents with defensive units ranked higher than Washington’s.  I expect Sherrone Moore to do what he’s done best all season.  Michigan will look for run-pass balance early on, but will rely on Blake Corum and the running game to wear down the Huskies and keep Michael Penix Jr. on the Washington sideline.

Michigan Defense (1st) vs. Washington Offense (4th)

Both fan bases point to this strength-on-strength match up and warn the other side that they haven’t seen a unit like this in 2023.  While it’s true given the context of this season, I feel most comfortable with Michigan’s defense preparing for a Heisman contender at quarterback with All American wide receivers.  That’s because the entire defensive philosophy and scheme was designed to contain CJ Stroud, and the Ohio State wide receiver room.  Penix could very likely throw for over 300 yards again on Monday night.  In 2021, Stroud threw for 394 yards and two touchdowns himself.  The key will be whether Michigan can make key plays inside their own 40 yard line to force field goal attempts, or come up with 4th down stops.  

PREDICTION: The culmination of this amazing 2023 season has finally arrived.  The story started to build 12 full months ago when upperclassmen like Blake Corum, Michael Barrett, and Zak Zinter were considering their returns to Ann Arbor.  Immediately, the bar was set as high as possible when Corum declared to Crisler Arena in February that this team would win a National Championship.  Then, during the early season the Wolverines started rolling comfortably in each game.  The star players rarely played much in the second half of games, allowing depth players to get a significant number of snaps on both sides of the ball.  But then the tougher part of the schedule arrived, and something unexpected happened: the depth guys were still getting snaps at big moments of the big games!  

After reading, listening, talking (check out the preview podcast), and processing a lot of data about how this game could go, I think Michigan’s greatest edge might be their depth.  Wide receiver Tyler Morris just scored his first career touchdown to take the lead over Alabama in the Rose Bowl.  Safeties Quentin Johnson & Keon Sabb were both forced into duty by an untimely injury during the fourth quarter, and they both made huge plays late.  The Wolverines harassed Jalen Milroe all night while still rotating at least seven defensive linemen consistently (prayers up for Rayshaun Benny).  Michigan created game plans and managed their roster for an entire season to ensure they could be as close to full strength as possible in the College Football Playoff.  Now it’s time to go play the game, and earn not only the National Title, but the title of Greatest Michigan Team of All Time. 
Michigan 31 Washington 24

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 01/02/24, 14-0

  • SP+ Overall: 2nd (↓1), 31.0
    • SP+ Offense: 12th (↓2), 36.5
    • SP+ Defense: 1st (same), 7.3
    • SP+ Special Teams: 7th (↓3), 1.8
  • AP Poll: 1st (same)
  • Coaches’ Poll: 1st (same)
  • CFP Rank: 1st (same)