Tune into the latest podcast with @pcallihan and @Clint_Derringer for an in-depth breakdown of Michigan’s pivotal matchup against Washington. Learn about key factors that will shape the game, from Michigan’s road performance and offensive line strength, to the importance of discipline, defense, and special teams execution. With insights from Sherrone Moore this episode highlights what Michigan must do to succeed in this close contest. With the odds against the Wolverines every play counts—don’t miss this engaging analysis of what could be a season-defining game!
Tune into the latest podcast as @pcallihan and @Clint_Derringer break down Michigan’s 27-24 victory over Minnesota, focusing on a strong first half and the need for better second-half execution. They discuss the key role of QB Alex Orji in opening up the run game, while stressing the importance of improving his passing accuracy. The health of the offensive line, defensive struggles late in the game, and officiating controversies are also examined. With a 4-1 record and a tough road game against Washington ahead, the conversation offers insight into the team’s challenges and areas for growth.
Tune in for expert insights and analysis—don’t miss out!
Final Score: 27-24, Michigan by 3 over Minnesota SP+ Projection: Michigan by 12.0 (-9.0) CD Projection: Michigan by 15 (-12)
FIVE FACTORS
GAME 5 RECAP vs. Minnesota
Michigan offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell answered the bell. This game plan was solid, and creative. We saw personnel adjustments that better utilized the Wolverines’ talent, even with Semaj Morgan sidelined. Unfortunately, Michigan is still one or two mistakes away from efficient execution. Kalel Mullings cashed in on a long run, and a short field to score two first quarter touchdowns. A blocked punt led to a 3rd score and a 21-3 halftime lead. The yardage told a different story, though. The Gophers outgained Michigan 130-107 in the first half, and 166-134 in the second half. Coleston Loveland still looks less than 100%, and now Myles Hinton adds another big injury concern at left tackle.
While it was clearly a story of two halves for Michigan overall, the defense was a little different. The Wolverines looked dominant in the 1st and 3rd quarters, but could not get the big stops necessary in the 2nd and 4th quarters. Linebacker Ernest Hausmann led the effort with 9 total tackles, and Mason Graham led with 2 tackles for loss. Maybe the highlight of the game was an acrobatic interception by Jayaire Hill on a deep bomb along the sideline. Hill was in great position, got his head around to find the ball, made the pick with his hands and managed to toe tap in bounds.
Placekicker Dominic Zvada reentered the scoring sheet with two field goals, and provided the eventual game winning points. Tommy Doman averaged nearly 47 yards per punt, but a first half touchback, and a big 60-yard return in the second half killed the net effect. Michigan averaged just 26.4 net yards per punt, and lost a significant field position advantage in the second half.
Right now Michigan Football feels like a boxer who has been stunned, and just needs to hang in there until the bell. The injuries are piling up, and it seems like most other teams have had their first bye week at this point. The Wolverines will need to get back to work right away to prep for their first road trip out west to Seattle next week. Then they will feel the relief of some rest during a bye week. The Michigan staff needs to tighten up their execution to ride their complementary football style to another victory before the break. Smash!
The Wolverines scored with under a minute remaining to take the lead, and held on to secure the 27-24 victory over the USC Trojans in an instant classic. The defense held their own against a top-tier offense, and Kalel Mullings was an absolute beast on the ground, including a Jim Brown style rumble for 63 yards on the game winning drive.
NEXT UP: vs. Minnesota: SP+ 47th, 6.3
PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 12.0, Michigan Win Probability 77%
The Vegas lines are finally shifting closer to the SP+ model output. Right now Michigan is a 10.5 point betting favorite, and SP+ likes the Wolverines by 12. I am surprised Minnesota’s defense stayed ranked in the top 20 after allowing Iowa to score 31 points last week.
Michigan Offense (61st) vs. Minnesota Defense (17th)
All the analysis and prognostication is centered on this match up with Alex Orji making his second start at QB. After going 7-for-12 for 32 yards passing last game, a huge portion of the Michigan fan base wants to see more passing game competence. Unfortunately for them, rainy conditions in the Big House will likely limit the play calling options available to offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell. The Wolverines are completely satisfied duplicating what worked for them last week versus USC, because it also worked just fine for Iowa in a 31-14 victory in Minneapolis. For me, the most important thing is getting your five best offensive weapons onto the field together as frequently as possible. Kalel Mullings, Coleston Loveland, Donovan Edwards, Max Bredeson, and Semaj Morgan should see a lion’s share of the snaps in order to threaten the entire field.
Michigan Defense (5th) vs. Minnesota Offense (89th)
Put very simply, this is a David vs. Goliath mismatch. Michigan has to handle their business down-to-down to avoid giving the Gophers any sense of confidence. Under PJ Fleck, Minnesota has been a run-first offense with a smash mentality similar to Sherrone Moore’s Wolverines. However, this year they are more reliant on a super dangerous wide receiver #9 Daniel Jackson, and transfer QB from New Hampshire #16 Max Brosmer. One potential snag for Michigan could be depth at the defensive back position. Will Johnson was not 100% healthy to finish last week’s game, so #20 Jyaire Hill and #12 Aamir Hall may be called on to answer the challenge against Jackson. I expect Michigan’s defensive line to wreak havoc on the Gophers all day, but the defensive backs will have to avoid coverage busts and missed tackles that have been too commonplace to start this season.
PREDICTION: Michigan will likely need to build their own energy down on the sidelines. It’s a grey, rainy day in Ann Arbor that might suppress the enthusiasm of the Big House crowd after last week’s classic comeback. I expect the defense to set up the offense with a couple short fields, and if Orji and the offense cash those possessions in early, this could become a blow out. Right now, I need to see a little cleaner execution from the offensive line, and more creativity with personnel from Kirk Campbell before I start predicting high score totals for the Wolverines.
