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Michigan 19 Iowa 20 – Game 4 Recap

GAME 4 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 19-20, Iowa by 1 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 0.3 (-1.3)
CD Projection: Michigan by 6 (-7)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 4 RECAP vs. Iowa

At least four drives were killed by penalties, and two other trips inside Iowa’s forty yard line ended with turnovers. Michigan needed a clean game and instead finally got bitten by all the young team, undisciplined mistakes. Most of the raw stats and five factor numbers look good, but less than three points per scoring opportunity is absolute poison. On the plays that were not poison, there is a lot to like from Michigan. Bryce Underwood has two lethal weapons outside, and Savion Hiter continues to settle in. No more room for error from this group now, though. They have scored 20+ points in just one of their three games.

The defense regressed back to Wink Martindale levels of infuriating on 3rd down in the 2nd half. I count five critical 3rd down conversions in the 2nd half, including gains of 32, 21, 13, & 29. The Wolverines did not make the plays they needed to make, and the death blow was another post-whistle personal foul penalty. The chippy late hit call wiped out an incomplete pass that would have forced Iowa to convert a 4th & 6 on the final touchdown drive.

A kickoff return touchdown allowed Iowa to keep their head above water until Michigan imploded. The rest of the field position battle was basically even, but special teams handed Iowa seven points in a one point loss. Trey Butkowski still looks solid, and that is reason for optimism. But let’s hope all kickoffs are touchbacks for the rest of this season.

There is season-level karma after WMU outplayed Michigan in the Bail Mary game. There is game karma after the Wolverines allowed the Hawkeyes to hang around for three quarters. All of that karma converged into an avalanche of pain for Michigan fans. This group will have to show some serious guts to pick themselves up and play well in their first road game next week. Go Blue.

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Michigan 52 UTEP 17 – Game 3 Recap

The Wolverines emerge on a grey day in Ann Arbor to face UTEP

GAME 3 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 52-17, Michigan by 35 over UTEP
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 32.5 (+2.5)
CD Projection: Michigan by 27 (+8)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 3 RECAP vs. UTEP

The offense still had fans chewing on their finger nails in the first half. Despite a 50% success rate in the first two quarters, the Wolverines had only mustered 17 points against one of the weakest defenses in the country per SP+. Then Michigan stormed out of the tunnel and boat raced the Miners in the third quarter. The offense finally clicked for three touchdown drives in Q3. Bryce Underwood looked sharper as a passer, and both Savion Hiter and Jordan Marshall found some space in the middle. By the time the fourth quarter rolled around, the Wolverines looked like they may bring a balanced offense into Big Ten play next week.

On defense, Michigan was victimized by penalties and turnovers. on UTEP’s first possession, a 3rd down sack was wiped out by an offside penalty. The Miners executed a beautifully executed play-action pass for an explosive touchdown. When Savion Hiter’s fumble turned into a one-play touchdown drive to make it 14-7 UTEP, the Big House felt like a funeral parlor. Just like the offense, the defense flipped a switch at halftime. UTEP ran 12 plays for -5 yards in the third quarter, and Jonah Lea’ea returned an intercepted screen pass for a score in the third. The Wolverines spent the entire second half in the Miners’ backfield, and plays that actually moved the ball forward we few and far between.

The special teams units looked fine, and proved to be head and shoulders better than the opponent today. Kicker Try Butkowski hit a 49-yard field goal to end the first half to give Michigan the lead. It was extra reassuring to see Butkowski nail his first opportunity from significant distance, and he had maybe 5-6 yards to spare in tough conditions.

No doubt, we’ll hear a lot about “a tale of two halves” and the cliche fits this game pretty perfectly. Michigan should still be concerned about sloppiness. They may have been looking past another opponent in their game planning and in their first half energy. There is absolutely no more excuse for that again on this team. In the grand scheme, Michigan finishes the first quarter of the season 3-0 with momentum and a large stack of valuable film to learn from. The Iowa Hawkeyes come to visit next week for the Big Ten opener. Michigan will have to continue to clean up their execution, and ride the wave of this second half. Iowa will not beat themselves, the Wolverines will need four full quarters to win. Go Blue!

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Michigan 17 Oklahoma 10 – Game 2 Recap

GAME 2 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 17-10, Michigan by 7 over Oklahoma
SP+ Projection: Oklahoma by 7.0 (+14.0)
CD Projection: Oklahoma by 6 (+13)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 2 RECAP vs. Oklahoma

The Michigan offense is still sputtering, but we saw a commitment to the QB run game that has been absent since the days of Shoelace. Bryce Underwood’s 38-yard touchdown run was the most explosive play for the Wolverines in a game pitting two great defenses against one another. Michigan’s 28% success rate is not good enough to win most games, but this team has proven they can find a path to victory even in the darkest hours. I was especially encouraged to see Jason Beck find ways to get Andrew Marsh the ball, as well as integrating Savion Hiter into the pass game. This offense will continue to improve game after game.

The Michigan defense is start of the show for the 2nd consecutive week. Holding Oklahoma’s offense to 10 points, and 35% success rate is a huge accomplishment. John Mateer created all kinds of trouble for the Wolverines last season, and this coaching staff learned some valuable lessons from that film. Most critically, Jay Hill’s defense was able to create 2 huge turnovers: 1 fumble recovery on the Sooners’ only first half scoring opportunity and a clutch fourth quarter interception by Jayaire Hill to set up the winning touchdown.

This was another absolutely solid performance for the kicking game. Trey Butkowski made his only FG attempt, and both extra points. Cam Brown pinned Oklahoma inside the 1-yard line twice! In the return game, Bryson Kudzal had one return that would have been better left a touchback. Also, Andrew Marsh was tentative on a first half punt that bounced, and then did not fair catch a critical fourth quarter punt that ended up downed at the 1-yard line also. If the return game can match the kicking game, the Wolverines will continue to set up their offense and defense with a field position advantage.

This will make for a fascinating week in the media. Bryce still showed a few struggles, but also showed what he can add to the offense with his legs. The biggest take away must be that penalties and alignment issues must be cleaned up before Big Ten play starts. At the end of this day, Michigan is 2-0 and likely to climb back up into the middle of the top 25 as they head into Week 3. GO BLUE!

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Michigan Wolverine Football Podcast — Game 1 – Michigan 13 Western Michigan 12 – Flirting with Disaster

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Michigan survived. Barely. 😳〽️

Michigan 13, Western Michigan 12.

A 47-yard Hail Mary. One extra second. A spectacular JJ Buchanan catch. And a game that went from season opener to near-disaster in a hurry. Michigan is 1–0, but there are warning lights everywhere.

🎙️ NEW UMGoBlue.com Podcast — “Flirting with Disaster”

Phil & Clint break down:
🏈 What went wrong after Michigan’s opening TD drive
⚠️ The concerns surrounding Bryce Underwood
😬 Western’s stunning domination of time of possession
💪 What the defense did right — and where it struggled
🔥 Whether Michigan can fix these problems before Oklahoma
🤔 And the question already being asked around Ann Arbor: How concerned should we be?

As Clint summed it up:

“47-yard Hail Mary… Other than that, burn the tape. Move on.”

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Michigan 13 WMU 12 – Game 1 Recap

Never a doubt

GAME 1 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 13-12, Michigan by 1 over WMU
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 25.5 (-24.5)
CD Projection: Michigan by 32 (-31)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 1 RECAP vs. WMU

The offense was abysmal for the entirety of the game, save the first drive and the last four plays. The Wolverines held onto a 44% success rate after starting with 60% success in the first quarter. The lack of run game is the headline that will be buried by JJ Buchanan’s heroics on the final drive. Michigan has to go back to the drawing board with the offensive line and figure out how to get some push inside. Bryce Underwood still struggles to make decisions quickly and accurately in games, but he will be a different player if the Wolverines add some run game success through the season.

The defense flat out ran out of gas. After the Broncos took the ball with 9:00+ on the clock in the third quarter, they didn’t give it back until nearly 14:00 later on the game clock. The Michigan LBs were mixed up too frequently by RPOs, and the interior of the line started to march backward. I still give the defense credit for standing up in the biggest moments. If Western finds the end zone once in this game, they would have been out of reach for Michigan at the end.

Special teams is still not solved, but the punter Cam Brown may have been the MVP before Buchanan put his cape on for the last drive. Brown had 6 punts and averaged 46.7 per kick, with 0 returns. The Broncos still managed to dominate field position, but without Brown, it would have been insurmountable.

There is a lot to learn in this film for a young team. As fans, we will have to let go of this narrative as soon as possible, and some day we can all laugh about Michigan students storming the field after a Hail Mary win over the MAC champs. Kyle Whittingham will remember this night forever, but he has a lot of work to do with his staff to avoid a 2026 nightmare. The schedule is far too tough to have any similar performance by the Wolverines. Go Blue!