Tag: SP+

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Michigan 13 Ohio State 10 – Game 12 Recap

GAME 12 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 13-10, Michigan by 3 over Ohio State
SP+ Projection: Ohio State by 20.5 (+23.5)
CD Projection: Ohio State by 11 (+14)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 12 RECAP @ Ohio State

See?! I am not crazy! Michigan’s best version in 2024 is a ball control, time of possession, field position strategy! They just saved it for The Game and sacrificed at least 2-3 losses in the regular season to trap Ryan Day!

In all seriousness, this had to be the plan all along, especially once Michigan learned Colston Loveland was unavailable. Kalel Mullings carried the Wolverines on his back again, rushing 32 times for 116 yards and Michigan’s only touchdown. His greatest moment, however, came on a 3rd & 6 in the 4th quarter. Mullings broke a tackle at the line of scrimmage and bounced outside for a 27-yard gallup that ensured Michigan was in field goal range in a tied game.

For the fourth consecutive year, it’s a struggle to determine how much of Michigan’s defensive success is a maize-and-blue masterpiece, and how much is a scarlet-and-grey conundrum. Somehow, Wink Martindale was able to remove Jeremiah Smith from the menu in the 2nd half. Ryan Day was determined to prove the Buckeyes were tougher on the ground this year. Turns out he was wrong…again. Ohio State only mustered 77 rushing yards on 26 attempts, a pitiful 3.0 yard per rush.

After an atrocious 33-yard punt by Tommy Doman to start the day for special teams, Dominic Zvada cashed in a 54-yard field goal, and cooly nailed the 21-yard nail in the coffin with under a minute on the clock. Just like all the Wolverines, Doman had to show some toughness and bounce back. He uncorked a critical 68-yard punt and roll in the 2nd quarter, and finished with a respectable 47.3 yard average.

What a month for Sherrone Moore and the Michigan Wolverines. There seems to be some major changes related to personnel management and recruiting within the program. But other things remain constant. This Michigan team didn’t flinch in the moment, even when it was infuriatingly bleak. When all the chips were on the table, Ryan Day and his “National Title or Bust” Buckeyes were not tough enough to make the critical plays in November. Both programs now find themselves at very different crossroads, with Michigan riding the wave of four straight victories over Ohio State into 2025. SMASH!

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Michigan 50 Northwestern 6 – Game 11 Recap

GAME 11 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 50-6, Michigan by 44 over Northwestern
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 15.2 (+28.8)
CD Projection: Michigan by 11 (+33)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 11 RECAP vs. Northwestern

What an explosion from the offense! It is a much needed sigh of relief for the players and the staff to see a solid game plan get executed well for four full quarters. The Wolverines were led by their best offensive player, Kalel Mullings, with three touchdowns on the ground. Davis Warren was 26-for-36 for 195 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Most importantly, 11 different players were targeted. Kirk Campbell was able to diversify, and it paid dividends immediately. It’s also poetic that both Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards scored touchdowns on their final carry in the Big House, a well-deserved honor bestowed upon two great Michigan Men!

The Wildcats were unable to block the Michigan front, and that was the end of that. With sacks removed, Northwestern only mustered 45 rushing yards, with most of those coming during garbage time in the 4th quarter. For much of the game, they had negative yards rushing. Michigan’s coverage did allow a few explosive plays, especially in the middle of the field in the second half. But, in another positive sign of growth, they adjusted and eventually collected a 2nd interception on a 4th down pass. Josiah Stewart had two sacks, and Kenneth Grant added another.

Dominic Zvada was excellent on all his kicks. He is a major weapon for the offense because he can hit from long range in cold weather. Tommy Doman only had one decent 48-yard punt, but Michigan allowed a good return to cut the net to 21 yards. Tyler Morris did a much better job catching the punts in the air after an early roller pinned Michigan back at their own 3 yard line.

I am very satisfied that Michigan had their best performance of the season in their final game in the Big House. The crowd brought a surprisingly high level of energy, and stuck around well into Garbage Time. We all deserved to celebrate being together in Ann Arbor one last time in 2024, and this team deserved to end the home season on a high note. Next up: a battle with the Buckeyes for Ryan Day’s job. SMASH!

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Michigan 17 Oregon 38 – Game 9 Recap

GAME 9 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 17-38, Oregon by 21 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Oregon by 12.5 (-8.5)
CD Projection: Oregon by 11 (-10)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 9 RECAP vs. Oregon

This offensive unit is remarkably consistent, but not necessarily in a great way. In almost every game, when I come back to the stats for the recap, the offense has put up between 260 and 290 yards of total offense. They show flashes of competence, but can’t string good plays together because of big misses on the offensive line, or turnovers. Today it was the offensive line. The Wolverines only managed 3.8 yards per rush attempt, and a 25% success rate on called run plays. That just won’t get it done for a team with a SMASH identity.

The biggest problem for Michigan on defense today came out in the injury report. Not only were the Wolverines missing All American cornerback Will Johnson, but also up and coming cornerback Jayaire Hill. That made for a really tough match up against an Oregon Ducks’ offense who wants to get the ball to fast playmakers on the edge, and challenge the DBs to tackle. In an alternate universe where Michigan pulls an upset, they would have forced multiple turnovers, or at least forced more than 1 FG attempt on scoring opportunities. That’s a really negative outlook, but that doesn’t match the guts the shorthanded defense showed. The defense gave Michigan a chance to climb back into the game in the 4th quarter, but they just couldn’t execute in the biggest moments.

The special teams units performed just fine today. There were no major mistakes, and they created the game’s only turnover. That big swing play led to Michigan’s first touchdown on a 28-yard field. Tommy Doman notably bounced back. Each of his punts were 45+ yards of carry, or were downed inside the 15 yard line.

I am a die hard fan, so the theme of the 2024 season is dying hard. I see a lot of small things that I am happy about, and I’m for sure proud that this team fights to the final whistle. But, I am not a Pollyanna either. Coming off a National Title, I expected this team to be pushing for a B1G Championship Game berth. Now, we’re going to have to settle for a fight for bowl eligibility and extended practices into December. This team will have a chance in every game, even the biggest game at the end of the season though, so don’t tune out completely. Go BLUE!

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By the Numbers: Game 7 @ Illinois

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines couldn’t hold a 4th quarter lead against the Washington Huskies as they headed into the bye week.  Eventually the big plays allowed by the defense, and two costly turnovers by the offense, fueled Washington’s 27-17 victory. 

NEXT UP: @ Illinois: SP+ 47th, 6.3

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 4.9, Michigan Win Probability 62%

As Michigan rested last week, the Illini were sweating out a 1-point overtime victory over SP+ 82nd ranked Purdue.  I think both the SP+ model and the Vegas odds would have favored the 5-1 Illinois at home if not for that eye-opener against the Boilermakers. 

Michigan Offense (63rd) vs. Illinois Defense (43rd) 

Surprisingly, the Illinois defense provides an advantageous match up for the Wolverines.  The Illini have given up 239 yards rushing in each of their last two games to Purdue and to Penn State  This could be exactly what the doctor ordered for a Michigan offensive line that has yet to click as a unit.  While the Wolverines have had a couple big rushing performances in 2024, they still are searching for consistency.  In Jack Tuttle’s first start for Michigan, their ability to lean on a high success rate in the run game should open throwing lanes to Coleston Loveland and Amorion Walker down the field.  Hopefully left tackle #78 Myles Hinton is back in the starting lineup.  He is the one Michigan lineman who has been able to move defenders off the line of scrimmage regularly. 

Michigan Defense (9th) vs. Illinois Offense (58th)

Early in the season, my assumption was that Michigan’s defensive struggles were mostly due to lack of offensive success putting the D into bad spots.  While that was certainly happening, it was not the case in the Washington loss.  The Huskies put up a gaudy 47% success rate against the Michigan defense, including 45% success on 3rd down.  The Wolverines need their playmakers to step forward in the biggest moments.  Hopefully the bye week helped a few key players heal, especially edge rusher #8 Derrick Moore.  Illinois quarterback Luke Altmeyer has been fantastic this season.  His only poor performance was the one loss for the Illini at Penn State.  The Michigan defensive front will be able to win 1-on-1 against this offensive line, but coordinator Wink Martindale will have to do a better job of pairing disguised coverages with his rushes.  If Altmeyer is allowed to make simple decisions and get the ball out of his hand quickly, this game could look a lot like the Washington game. 

PREDICTION: Most of the focus locally and nationally seems to be on the Michigan offense as they trot out their 3rd starting QB of the season.  While that is understandable, this game will be decided by Michigan’s defense.  Our preseason predictions were looking for an elite defense to lead the Wolverines while a new offensive lineup figured things out.  The offense has a golden opportunity to reestablish a dominant run game, so I am placing the focus squarely on the defense to be elite.  For now, I will predict that the Wolverine defensive front will cause just enough havoc to allow Michigan to escape Champaign with a victory. 
Michigan 24 Illinois 21 (PRESEASON Michigan 20 Illinois 7)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 10/13/24, 4-2

SP+ Overall: 21st (↑6), 13.7
SP+ Offense: 63rd (↑5), 28.1
SP+ Defense: 9th (↑3), 14.8
SP+ Special Teams: 11th (↓2), 0.4

AP Poll: 24th (same), 133

Coaches’ Poll: 22nd (↓1), 223

CFP Rank: N/A

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Michigan 27 Minnesota 24 – Game 5 Recap

GAME 5 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 27-24, Michigan by 3 over Minnesota
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 12.0 (-9.0)
CD Projection: Michigan by 15 (-12)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 5 RECAP vs. Minnesota

Michigan offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell answered the bell. This game plan was solid, and creative. We saw personnel adjustments that better utilized the Wolverines’ talent, even with Semaj Morgan sidelined. Unfortunately, Michigan is still one or two mistakes away from efficient execution. Kalel Mullings cashed in on a long run, and a short field to score two first quarter touchdowns. A blocked punt led to a 3rd score and a 21-3 halftime lead. The yardage told a different story, though. The Gophers outgained Michigan 130-107 in the first half, and 166-134 in the second half. Coleston Loveland still looks less than 100%, and now Myles Hinton adds another big injury concern at left tackle.

While it was clearly a story of two halves for Michigan overall, the defense was a little different. The Wolverines looked dominant in the 1st and 3rd quarters, but could not get the big stops necessary in the 2nd and 4th quarters. Linebacker Ernest Hausmann led the effort with 9 total tackles, and Mason Graham led with 2 tackles for loss. Maybe the highlight of the game was an acrobatic interception by Jayaire Hill on a deep bomb along the sideline. Hill was in great position, got his head around to find the ball, made the pick with his hands and managed to toe tap in bounds.

Placekicker Dominic Zvada reentered the scoring sheet with two field goals, and provided the eventual game winning points. Tommy Doman averaged nearly 47 yards per punt, but a first half touchback, and a big 60-yard return in the second half killed the net effect. Michigan averaged just 26.4 net yards per punt, and lost a significant field position advantage in the second half.

Right now Michigan Football feels like a boxer who has been stunned, and just needs to hang in there until the bell. The injuries are piling up, and it seems like most other teams have had their first bye week at this point. The Wolverines will need to get back to work right away to prep for their first road trip out west to Seattle next week. Then they will feel the relief of some rest during a bye week. The Michigan staff needs to tighten up their execution to ride their complementary football style to another victory before the break. Smash!