Category: SP+

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Michigan 52 UTEP 17 – Game 3 Recap

The Wolverines emerge on a grey day in Ann Arbor to face UTEP

GAME 3 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 52-17, Michigan by 35 over UTEP
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 32.5 (+2.5)
CD Projection: Michigan by 27 (+8)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 3 RECAP vs. UTEP

The offense still had fans chewing on their finger nails in the first half. Despite a 50% success rate in the first two quarters, the Wolverines had only mustered 17 points against one of the weakest defenses in the country per SP+. Then Michigan stormed out of the tunnel and boat raced the Miners in the third quarter. The offense finally clicked for three touchdown drives in Q3. Bryce Underwood looked sharper as a passer, and both Savion Hiter and Jordan Marshall found some space in the middle. By the time the fourth quarter rolled around, the Wolverines looked like they may bring a balanced offense into Big Ten play next week.

On defense, Michigan was victimized by penalties and turnovers. on UTEP’s first possession, a 3rd down sack was wiped out by an offside penalty. The Miners executed a beautifully executed play-action pass for an explosive touchdown. When Savion Hiter’s fumble turned into a one-play touchdown drive to make it 14-7 UTEP, the Big House felt like a funeral parlor. Just like the offense, the defense flipped a switch at halftime. UTEP ran 12 plays for -5 yards in the third quarter, and Jonah Lea’ea returned an intercepted screen pass for a score in the third. The Wolverines spent the entire second half in the Miners’ backfield, and plays that actually moved the ball forward we few and far between.

The special teams units looked fine, and proved to be head and shoulders better than the opponent today. Kicker Try Butkowski hit a 49-yard field goal to end the first half to give Michigan the lead. It was extra reassuring to see Butkowski nail his first opportunity from significant distance, and he had maybe 5-6 yards to spare in tough conditions.

No doubt, we’ll hear a lot about “a tale of two halves” and the cliche fits this game pretty perfectly. Michigan should still be concerned about sloppiness. They may have been looking past another opponent in their game planning and in their first half energy. There is absolutely no more excuse for that again on this team. In the grand scheme, Michigan finishes the first quarter of the season 3-0 with momentum and a large stack of valuable film to learn from. The Iowa Hawkeyes come to visit next week for the Big Ten opener. Michigan will have to continue to clean up their execution, and ride the wave of this second half. Iowa will not beat themselves, the Wolverines will need four full quarters to win. Go Blue!

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Michigan 17 Oklahoma 10 – Game 2 Recap

GAME 2 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 17-10, Michigan by 7 over Oklahoma
SP+ Projection: Oklahoma by 7.0 (+14.0)
CD Projection: Oklahoma by 6 (+13)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 2 RECAP vs. Oklahoma

The Michigan offense is still sputtering, but we saw a commitment to the QB run game that has been absent since the days of Shoelace. Bryce Underwood’s 38-yard touchdown run was the most explosive play for the Wolverines in a game pitting two great defenses against one another. Michigan’s 28% success rate is not good enough to win most games, but this team has proven they can find a path to victory even in the darkest hours. I was especially encouraged to see Jason Beck find ways to get Andrew Marsh the ball, as well as integrating Savion Hiter into the pass game. This offense will continue to improve game after game.

The Michigan defense is start of the show for the 2nd consecutive week. Holding Oklahoma’s offense to 10 points, and 35% success rate is a huge accomplishment. John Mateer created all kinds of trouble for the Wolverines last season, and this coaching staff learned some valuable lessons from that film. Most critically, Jay Hill’s defense was able to create 2 huge turnovers: 1 fumble recovery on the Sooners’ only first half scoring opportunity and a clutch fourth quarter interception by Jayaire Hill to set up the winning touchdown.

This was another absolutely solid performance for the kicking game. Trey Butkowski made his only FG attempt, and both extra points. Cam Brown pinned Oklahoma inside the 1-yard line twice! In the return game, Bryson Kudzal had one return that would have been better left a touchback. Also, Andrew Marsh was tentative on a first half punt that bounced, and then did not fair catch a critical fourth quarter punt that ended up downed at the 1-yard line also. If the return game can match the kicking game, the Wolverines will continue to set up their offense and defense with a field position advantage.

This will make for a fascinating week in the media. Bryce still showed a few struggles, but also showed what he can add to the offense with his legs. The biggest take away must be that penalties and alignment issues must be cleaned up before Big Ten play starts. At the end of this day, Michigan is 2-0 and likely to climb back up into the middle of the top 25 as they head into Week 3. GO BLUE!

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Michigan 13 WMU 12 – Game 1 Recap

Never a doubt

GAME 1 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 13-12, Michigan by 1 over WMU
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 25.5 (-24.5)
CD Projection: Michigan by 32 (-31)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 1 RECAP vs. WMU

The offense was abysmal for the entirety of the game, save the first drive and the last four plays. The Wolverines held onto a 44% success rate after starting with 60% success in the first quarter. The lack of run game is the headline that will be buried by JJ Buchanan’s heroics on the final drive. Michigan has to go back to the drawing board with the offensive line and figure out how to get some push inside. Bryce Underwood still struggles to make decisions quickly and accurately in games, but he will be a different player if the Wolverines add some run game success through the season.

The defense flat out ran out of gas. After the Broncos took the ball with 9:00+ on the clock in the third quarter, they didn’t give it back until nearly 14:00 later on the game clock. The Michigan LBs were mixed up too frequently by RPOs, and the interior of the line started to march backward. I still give the defense credit for standing up in the biggest moments. If Western finds the end zone once in this game, they would have been out of reach for Michigan at the end.

Special teams is still not solved, but the punter Cam Brown may have been the MVP before Buchanan put his cape on for the last drive. Brown had 6 punts and averaged 46.7 per kick, with 0 returns. The Broncos still managed to dominate field position, but without Brown, it would have been insurmountable.

There is a lot to learn in this film for a young team. As fans, we will have to let go of this narrative as soon as possible, and some day we can all laugh about Michigan students storming the field after a Hail Mary win over the MAC champs. Kyle Whittingham will remember this night forever, but he has a lot of work to do with his staff to avoid a 2026 nightmare. The schedule is far too tough to have any similar performance by the Wolverines. Go Blue!

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Michigan 9 Ohio State 27 – Game 12 Recap

GAME 12 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 9-27, Ohio State by 18 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Ohio State by 14.6 (-3.4)
CD Projection: Ohio State by 4 (-14)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 12 RECAP vs. Ohio State

Offensively, a 24% success rate isn’t going to beat anyone. The game plan seemed solid to start the game, but just wasn’t sustainable once both coaching staffs adjusted, and a few key injuries popped back up. Bryce Underwood finished 8 of 18 for 63 yards and an interception. There was never a chance for coordinator Chip Lindsey to create any rhythm, but 0 targets for Andrew Marsh still seems like Chip’s mistake. The most important thing that happened in this game was critical experience for this offensive unit heading into 2026. They have a long way to go, but plenty of talent and fire power coming back.

Ohio State’s offensive line won the game for the Buckeyes. Julian Sayin was never in any serious danger, and OSU put up a 48% success rate on run plays. For all the posturing Michigan fans have done about program toughness and The Game, today the Buckeyes were tougher. Running back Bo Jackson averaged 5.3 yards per carry while Sayin was given plenty of time to attack downfield. He connected on two long touchdown passes, and three total on the day.

In my eyes, the game flipped in the 3rd quarter. The defense got the stop required and Ryan Day punted on 4th and 2. Underwood hit McCulley down the seam to get into favorable field position, but then the offense stalled. Hudson Hollenbeck then shanked an 11 yard punt that was effectively a turnover. The Buckeyes treated it like a sudden change, and hit a bomb to Carnell Tate on the very next snap. Special teams need a full make over this offseason.

As Michigan fans, we hate losing this game. I am not going to make any excuses for the team and coaches falling short. But, take whatever time you need to be angry, then start looking forward to 2026 and 2027. There will be many new faces, and the players have a lot of work to do, but championship-level football is just around the corner for the Wolverines. Onward!

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Michigan 21 Purdue 16 – Game 9 Recap

GAME 9 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 21-16, Michigan by 5 over Purdue
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 21.7 (-16.7)
CD Projection: Michigan by 19 (-14)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 9 RECAP vs. Purdue

It’s important to understand whether you are a glass-half-full person, or a glass-half-empty person. The offense, as a unit, is not playing well for a multitude of reasons. But, Jordan Marshall is carrying the program on his back in heroic fashion. And, most importantly, the Wolverines keep winning football games. Marshall carried the ball 25 times for 185 yards and scored all 3 Michigan touchdowns.

The sophomore running back stepped in to save the day after Chip Lindsey could no longer keep the game in Bryce Underwood’s hands. The freshman quarterback finished 13-of-22 for 145 yards passing, but had two very costly turnovers in the red zone that cost the team anywhere from 6 to 14 points. With 75% of the regular season completed, Underwood is at the level I would have expected back in August, but the progress feels pretty flat over the past few weeks. Outside of the plethora of injured Wolverines, nobody needs the bye week more than Bryce.

Defensively, I was prepared for frustration as Saturday progressed. First, I learned Purdue’s OC previously worked under Lincoln Riley at USC. I remember the coaching mismatch I saw a month ago, so I was ready for Purdue to hit a few plays. Second, we learned Michigan would be missing Jimmy Rolder, Cole Sullivan, Jayshawn Barham, and Rod Moore from the starting lineup. That put a lot of inexperienced guys onto the field. Add in Purdue’s preference for high tempo, and it was clear Michigan was going to give up some points tonight. When it was all said and done, I think the battered Wolverines did an admirable job. However, this film combined with the USC film will no doubt be under a microscope in Columbus.

The special teams units are still wildly inconsistent. Semaj Morgan caught one punt in the air, but turned in a -2 yard return. The previous return opportunity was another example of playing too deep and letting the ball bounce and roll for a 57 yard net for Purdue. Michigan’s punter Hudson Hollenbeck continues his up-down, feast-or-famine pattern. I am confident he is capable, but he needs to reset the floor on his bad kicks.

Jim Harbaugh said famously, “When they put ‘pretty’ on the scoreboard, we’ll worry about it.” It was after a game just like this. Winning a B1G Ten game in November is no small feat. The Wolverines have to maximize their rest and self-study during the upcoming bye week. This month will determine how we remember the 2025 team.