Tag: SP+

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By the Numbers: Game 7 vs. Northwestern

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LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines are coming off a bye that followed their second consecutive road victory.  The latest victory was a 32-29 nail-biter that included a little bit of everything.  We saw diving catches, interceptions, and hurdled defenders, but also bad reads and blown coverages.

NEXT UP: vs. Northwestern: 77th, 1.0

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 21.6, Michigan Win Probability 89%

Vegas lines have again landed close to SP+ model projections.  I recorded the opening line at Michigan -21.5 on Sunday, so SP+ would have chosen Michigan by 0.1 point.  The line has moved to Michigan -23.5, so Bill Connelly has recorded the pick against the spread for Northwestern. Regardless, the Wolverines will need to avoid the proverbial trap game stumble with a potential top-ten showdown in East Lansing looming next weekend.  

Michigan Offense (18th) vs. Northwestern Defense (31st) 

The Northwestern defense has traditionally been the strength of the team under Pat Fitzgerald.  However, the 2021 team’s 31st SP+ defensive ranking is very misleading.  Their preseason ranking (12th) is still carrying most of the weight.  Longtime defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz retired after 51(!) seasons of coaching.  Northwestern also ranked dead last 129th in all FBS in returning production overall, and 128th on defense specifically.  All that personnel and leadership turnover has resulted in major issues for the Wildcats, especially in their run fits.  Northwestern has allowed an average of 272 yards rushing to their 3 previous Big Ten opponents. That bodes well for the Wolverines’ rushing attack.  

Michigan Defense (9th) vs. Northwestern Offense (108th)

Michigan’s unit-versus-unit advantage will be even more lopsided when Northwestern has the ball.  The Wildcats have scored less than 25 points in 5 of their 6 games, including just 24 points and 275 yards of total offense against FCS Indiana State.  Northwestern does usually trend upward as the season progresses, and they are coming off a much cleaner performance that resulted in a 21-7 victory at home over Rutgers.  

The Wolverines’ talent advantage should allow Michigan to overwhelm the Wildcats in the trenches.  The one potential troubling matchup will be running back Evan Hull and slot receiver Stephan Robinson against the Michigan linebackers in coverage. 

PREDICTION:  Michigan returns from the bye week trying to stay focused on the task at hand without looking ahead to hugely impactful matchups down the line.  I expect the coaching staff and upperclassmen leadership will be able to keep Northwestern as the primary focus.  

From a game plan standpoint, I think Josh Gattis will return to a heavy dose of running the ball against a pretty porous Northwestern front.  It will be interesting to see how Pat Fitzgerald and his defensive staff decide to load the box, and how Gattis reacts with the passing game going over the top.  

On defense, Michigan will be trying to shore up some of the issues the linebackers have experienced since Big Ten play started.  I expect Michigan will be able to pressure QB Ryan Hillinski with 4 or 5 rushers and may challenge Josh Ross, Nikhai Hill-Green, and Junior Colson to improve their underneath pass coverage.  We’ll see if there is a trend using Hill-Green more on standard downs, and the true freshman Colson seeing his snap count increase on passing downs.
Michigan 41 Northwestern 10 (PRESEASON Michigan 24 Northwestern 20)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (date)

  • SP+ Overall: 8th (same), 20.1
  • SP+ Offense: 18th (↑8), 35.6
  • SP+ Defense: 9th (↑1), 16.1
  • SP+ Special Teams: 2nd (↑1), 0.7

AP Poll: 6th (↑2), 1,214

Coaches’ Poll: 6th (↑1), 1,299

CFP Rank: N/A

U-M Resume after Game #6
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Michigan 32 Nebraska 29 – Game 6 Recap

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GAME 6 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 32-29, Michigan by 3 over Nebraska
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 3.6 (-0.6)
CD Projection: Michigan by 20 (-17)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 6 RECAP @ Nebraska

Michigan fans can learn something from this 2021 Wolverines football team: enjoy the moment! The team is 6-0 heading into the bye week, and not even the most optimistic of us could have guessed that in August.

This group has a clear identity on both sides of the ball. They play hard and execute pretty cleanly, especially on special teams. They are player led, and the coaches augment the players’ positive energy. I am not saying it’s all sunshine and rainbows, but no season is. Embrace the struggle, and celebrate this team that has successfully battled through adversity together.

The offense carried Michigan to the victory today. However, I would also argue they are the main reason the game remained close. The Wolverines had a major efficiency advantage in the first half, and ran 22 more plays than Nebraska did. This ended as a 3-point victory because Michigan could not execute in the red zone and cash in more touchdowns in their 7 (!!) scoring opportunities.

Michigan racked up 219 yards rushing (sack adjusted). The Wolverines were led by Hassan Haskins’ 123 yards rushing (5.9 ypc) and 2 touchdowns. We also witnessed the return of Boom & Zoom in the 4th quarter as Haskins leapt a defender and rumbled 50 yards to set up the game-tying field goal. The drive before that saw Blake Corum zoom around the left end and race untouched into the end zone.

Defensively, Nebraska’s dual threat quarterback gave Michigan fits. Adrian Martinez went 18-of-28 for 291 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT. He also converted a handful of big 3rd downs with his legs on QB draw plays through the middle of the defense.

You have to give the Husker offensive staff a good chunk of credit. They made some very shrewd halftime adjustments. After suffering through a 21% and 17% success rate in the 1st and 2nd quarters, Nebraska bounced back to 65% success rate in the 3rd quarter, and 44% in the 4th. In the biggest moment, however, Michigan senior safety Brad Hawkins stripped Martinez as the QB ran for another 3rd down conversion. The Wolverines recovered the ball and kicked the game-winning field goal.

Once you pat Hassan Haskins on the back, the next game ball probably goes to the kicker Jake Moody. Moody was a perfect 4-for-4 on field goals, including two high-pressure kicks in the 4th quarter. He also blasted every kickoff well through the end zone to force the Cornhuskers to start nearly every drive from their own 25 yard line.

Because the Nebraska offense moved the chains reliably in the second half, we didn’t see many punt returns for AJ Henning. That may have been a blessing in disguise after Henning misjudged his last return attempt and nearly turned the ball over.

All-in-all this goes down as a tremendous team victory on the road against a team who desperately needed to win. Take a breather during the bye week, and get ready to enjoy the 2nd half of this great 2021 season. Onward!

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By the Numbers: Game 6 @ Nebraska

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LAST WEEK RECAP

The players, coaches, and even the fan base are starting to believe in Michigan as a B1G Ten East contender after the Wolverines traveled to Madison and schooled the Badgers 38-17. 

NEXT UP: @ Nebraska: 22nd, 13.5
PREGAME SP+: U-M by 3.6, Michigan Win Probability 58%

The SP+ model and the Vegas betting lines have converged in Week 6 in regard to Michigan.  There is only a 0.1 point difference in the spread, and a 1 point difference in the O/U total projection.  This spread is narrowed significantly by an adjustment for home field advantage.  We’ll see if Michigan can stay sharp on the road for the second consecutive week.  

Michigan Offense (26th) vs. Nebraska Defense (20th) 

The Wolverines are coming off another clean performance against the SP+ #3 defense from Wisconsin.  The Nebraska “black shirt” defense continues to improve, and manages to keep the Cornhuskers in every game they play.  

Michigan will have to deploy a balanced game plan, but I expect Josh Gattis to start the game by testing the interior of Nebraska’s defense.  The onus will be on the Michigan offensive line to create movement against their DL, and on Cade McNamara to make the correct reads and accurate throws on RPO opportunities behind the linebackers.

Michigan Defense (8th) vs. Nebraska Offense (34th)

On paper, the Michigan defense appears to have another significant advantage over Nebraska’s offensive unit.  One particularly lopsided match up will be on the edges of the line of scrimmage.  Aidan Hutchinson, David Ojabo, and the rest of the “Reapers” who play OLB for the  Wolverines will be too much to handle for the Huskers’ offensive tackles.  That means Scott Frost will be leaning heavily on plays that get the ball out of QB Adrian Martinez’ hands quickly as possible.  

More importantly, I think Nebraska will be extremely dependent on Martinez’ legs to move the ball by running option plays.  Surely Michigan is reviewing the film of Noah Vedral causing problems in the 2nd half of the Rutgers game.  Getting a healthy Josh Ross back into the center of the defense to make the calls and pick up formation tendencies will be a huge boost against Frost’s QB run game.

PREDICTION:  The dynamic of this game is very similar to last week as Michigan prepped for a trip to Madison.  You can add in the challenge of sitting around in a hotel all day waiting for a night game.  The atmosphere and crowd will be much more jacked up for this one.  Also, Adrian Martinez presents a much more dangerous dual threat challenge than Graham Mertz last week.   However, Martinez is prone to taking risks with the ball, and making turnover-worthy mistakes multiple times per game.  

Michigan will also leverage a clear advantage in special teams in this game.  Nebraska dropped their game against MSU specifically because of poor punting and punt coverage.  With all that said, the single largest reason that  I am much more confident that Michigan can bring their best performance on the road is the strength of the player leadership on this team makes a significant difference.  Nebraska’s penchant for making critical errors, and my confidence in Michigan’s ability to stay laser focused in the face of adversity make this feel like another multiple score victory for the Wolverines.

Michigan 33 Nebraska 13 (PRESEASON Michigan 42 Nebraska 23)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (10/3/21), 5-0

  • SP+ Overall: 8th (same), 19.7
  • SP+ Offense: 26th (↓9), 34.4
  • SP+ Defense: 8th (same), 15.3
  • SP+ Special Teams: 3rd (↑6), 0.6

AP Poll: 9th (↑5), 1,053

Coaches’ Poll: 8th (↑6), 1,125

CFP Rank: N/A

U-M Resume after Game #5
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Michigan 38 Wisconsin 17 – Game 5 Recap

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GAME 5 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 38-17, Michigan by 21 over Wisconsin
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 1 (+20)
CD Projection: Wisconsin by 3 (+24)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 5 RECAP @ Wisconsin

Michigan now stands a perfect 5-0 after beating Wisconsin convincingly 38-17 in Madison. While nobody would call this a perfect performance for the Wolverines, this team showed mental toughness on the road that previous teams of the Jim Harbaugh era lacked. Michigan got off to a great start in the 1st quarter and never gave the Badgers any reprieve. When key plays needed to be made, various players managed to step up to the challenge. By the 4th quarter Wisconsin had suffered too many key injuries on offense and became totally one dimensional. The vaunted Badger defense also wore down early in the 4th quarter and finally conceded a handful of explosive plays to the Wolverines.

Offensively, Josh Gattis and his staff surprised me. I expected another conservative game plan. I thought Michigan would want to manage the offense to avoid risk in an effort to challenge the Badger offense’s execution problems this season. Instead, the Wolverines displayed their most balanced attack of the season running 54% of the time and passing 46% of the time (garbage time removed at the end). Cade McNamara finished 17-28 for 197 yards and 2 TDs. More importantly, I think, Gattis showed he was willing to stretch the defense vertically down the field once again. Keeping the pressure on the Wisconsin safeties deep helped create just enough room underneath, and unclogged the box just a bit for the run game.

The FOX broadcast team showered Michigan’s defense with a lot of love, and rightfully so. Wisconsin was only able to run 9 plays in the 1st quarter, and started the game with 4 straight 3-and-out drives. Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz showed a lot of guts and accuracy just before halftime to cut Michigan’s lead to 13-10 with two perfect throws over Daxton Hill. However, Dax got the last laugh. Hill flashed into the backfield for a sack on a 3rd & 9 blitz on the first drive of the 3rd quarter. The backup QB was forced to take over from there, and Wisconsin was never within one score again.

Michigan leveraged a huge special teams advantage in this game also. The Wolverines turned a muffed punt into 3 points in the 1st half. Jake Moody was 2-for-2 on field goals, including a 47-yarder. And Wisconsin shanked one kickoff out of bounds trying to avoid giving the ball to Blake Corum. One big special teams swing occurred in the 2nd quarter when the Badgers nearly gave Michigan the ball back on a squib kick with less than a minute on the clock before halftime. Wisconsin managed to recover, and started their last drive at their own 37 yard line. That field position allowed them to unleash Mertz for their first touchdown of the game. Onward to Nebraska!

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By the Numbers: Game 5 @ Wisconsin

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LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan survived a scare from Rutgers for the second season in a row.  This time the Scarlet Knights were the team coming back from a 17-point deficit, but the Wolverines made the stops they needed to hold on 20-13.

NEXT UP: @ Wisconsin: 11th, 16.9

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 1.0, Michigan Win Probability 52%

Only 3 spots separate Michigan and Wisconsin in the SP+ rankings, despite the Wolverines’ (4-0) and Badgers’ (1-2) vastly different records.   Wisconsin’s two losses have come to SP+ #5 Penn State and #22 Notre Dame. 

Michigan Offense (17th) vs. Wisconsin Defense (4th) 

One primary reason I ground my expectations in analytics involves avoiding recency bias.  Even though Michigan’s offense had been a juggernaut for 6 out of 8 quarters this season, the last 2 quarters against Rutgers are fresh in the minds of all Michigan fans.  Although the rushing attack sputtered, and the passing game could not find their rhythm last Saturday, the Wolverines still sit at #17 in SP+ offense rankings.  That’s 1 spot in front of Penn State, and 22 spots ahead of Notre Dame.

On the flip side Wisconsin has an elite defensive unit, especially against the run.  I don’t expect to see the Badgers surrender a large number of scoring chances.  That means we’ll keep an eye on IsoPPP to measure how explosive Michigan can be when they do find successful plays. 

Points per Scoring Opportunity also shines as a critical metric for this game .  When the offense penetrates the Wisconsin 40-yard line, they will need to score touchdowns rather than settling for field goal attempts.

Michigan Defense (8th) vs. Wisconsin Offense (50th)

We can reasonably say that Mike MacDonald’s defensive unit saved Michigan’s victory over Rutgers.  When SP+ ranked the Wolverines’ defense #10 in the preseason, I mentioned that I thought that was inflated.  Through 4 weeks, Michigan has not only validated that initial ranking, but continued to climb as preseason expectations are removed from the SP+ model. 

In this week’s matchup with the Badgers, the Michigan defense represents the largest unit-versus-unit advantage for the Wolverines.  If the defense can create havoc and negative plays early in this game, they may be able to help subdue the crowd’s energy.  The Badgers’ fan base is starving for some positivity during their rocky start to the 2021 season.  Aidan Hutchinson, Dax Hill, and Josh Ross need to implant doubt & negative vibes into the Camp Randall crowd as early as possible.

PREDICTION: The range of possible outcomes for this game extends to both ends of the spectrum.  It could be a nail-biter for the duration.  However, the conditions feel right for either team to play poorly and get boat-raced off the field. 

The early season narrative for the Badgers starts with QB Graham Mertz struggling and turning the ball over.  Michigan continues to protect the ball very well to this point of the season.  If the turnover margin continues on that trend, then we could be celebrating a huge road victory from Madison. 

I expect both teams to play conservatively to limit the big momentum swings.  I can’t yet bring myself to predict a fast start and a complete 60-minute performance from Michigan on the road.  I still need to see a sharp game plan from each coordinator, and the leaders on the field consistently execute at a high level.
Michigan 17 Wisconsin 20 (PRESEASON Michigan 24 Wisconsin 30)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (9/26/21), 4-0

  • SP+ Overall: 8th (↓2), 20.4
  • SP+ Offense: 17th (↓4), 35.8
  • SP+ Defense: 8th (same), 15.8
  • SP+ Special Teams: 9th (↓7), 0.3

AP Poll: 14th (↑5), 677

Coaches’ Poll: 14th (↑5), 674

CFP Rank: N/A

U-M Resume after Game #4