LAST WEEK RECAP
The Wolverines are coming off a bye that followed their second consecutive road victory. The latest victory was a 32-29 nail-biter that included a little bit of everything. We saw diving catches, interceptions, and hurdled defenders, but also bad reads and blown coverages.
NEXT UP: vs. Northwestern: 77th, 1.0
PREGAME SP+: U-M by 21.6, Michigan Win Probability 89%
Vegas lines have again landed close to SP+ model projections. I recorded the opening line at Michigan -21.5 on Sunday, so SP+ would have chosen Michigan by 0.1 point. The line has moved to Michigan -23.5, so Bill Connelly has recorded the pick against the spread for Northwestern. Regardless, the Wolverines will need to avoid the proverbial trap game stumble with a potential top-ten showdown in East Lansing looming next weekend.
Michigan Offense (18th) vs. Northwestern Defense (31st)
The Northwestern defense has traditionally been the strength of the team under Pat Fitzgerald. However, the 2021 team’s 31st SP+ defensive ranking is very misleading. Their preseason ranking (12th) is still carrying most of the weight. Longtime defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz retired after 51(!) seasons of coaching. Northwestern also ranked dead last 129th in all FBS in returning production overall, and 128th on defense specifically. All that personnel and leadership turnover has resulted in major issues for the Wildcats, especially in their run fits. Northwestern has allowed an average of 272 yards rushing to their 3 previous Big Ten opponents. That bodes well for the Wolverines’ rushing attack.
Michigan Defense (9th) vs. Northwestern Offense (108th)
Michigan’s unit-versus-unit advantage will be even more lopsided when Northwestern has the ball. The Wildcats have scored less than 25 points in 5 of their 6 games, including just 24 points and 275 yards of total offense against FCS Indiana State. Northwestern does usually trend upward as the season progresses, and they are coming off a much cleaner performance that resulted in a 21-7 victory at home over Rutgers.
The Wolverines’ talent advantage should allow Michigan to overwhelm the Wildcats in the trenches. The one potential troubling matchup will be running back Evan Hull and slot receiver Stephan Robinson against the Michigan linebackers in coverage.
PREDICTION: Michigan returns from the bye week trying to stay focused on the task at hand without looking ahead to hugely impactful matchups down the line. I expect the coaching staff and upperclassmen leadership will be able to keep Northwestern as the primary focus.
From a game plan standpoint, I think Josh Gattis will return to a heavy dose of running the ball against a pretty porous Northwestern front. It will be interesting to see how Pat Fitzgerald and his defensive staff decide to load the box, and how Gattis reacts with the passing game going over the top.
On defense, Michigan will be trying to shore up some of the issues the linebackers have experienced since Big Ten play started. I expect Michigan will be able to pressure QB Ryan Hillinski with 4 or 5 rushers and may challenge Josh Ross, Nikhai Hill-Green, and Junior Colson to improve their underneath pass coverage. We’ll see if there is a trend using Hill-Green more on standard downs, and the true freshman Colson seeing his snap count increase on passing downs.
Michigan 41 Northwestern 10 (PRESEASON Michigan 24 Northwestern 20)
MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (date)
- SP+ Overall: 8th (same), 20.1
- SP+ Offense: 18th (↑8), 35.6
- SP+ Defense: 9th (↑1), 16.1
- SP+ Special Teams: 2nd (↑1), 0.7
AP Poll: 6th (↑2), 1,214
Coaches’ Poll: 6th (↑1), 1,299
CFP Rank: N/A
