Tag: Northwestern

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Michigan 50 Northwestern 6 – Game 11 Recap

GAME 11 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 50-6, Michigan by 44 over Northwestern
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 15.2 (+28.8)
CD Projection: Michigan by 11 (+33)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 11 RECAP vs. Northwestern

What an explosion from the offense! It is a much needed sigh of relief for the players and the staff to see a solid game plan get executed well for four full quarters. The Wolverines were led by their best offensive player, Kalel Mullings, with three touchdowns on the ground. Davis Warren was 26-for-36 for 195 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Most importantly, 11 different players were targeted. Kirk Campbell was able to diversify, and it paid dividends immediately. It’s also poetic that both Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards scored touchdowns on their final carry in the Big House, a well-deserved honor bestowed upon two great Michigan Men!

The Wildcats were unable to block the Michigan front, and that was the end of that. With sacks removed, Northwestern only mustered 45 rushing yards, with most of those coming during garbage time in the 4th quarter. For much of the game, they had negative yards rushing. Michigan’s coverage did allow a few explosive plays, especially in the middle of the field in the second half. But, in another positive sign of growth, they adjusted and eventually collected a 2nd interception on a 4th down pass. Josiah Stewart had two sacks, and Kenneth Grant added another.

Dominic Zvada was excellent on all his kicks. He is a major weapon for the offense because he can hit from long range in cold weather. Tommy Doman only had one decent 48-yard punt, but Michigan allowed a good return to cut the net to 21 yards. Tyler Morris did a much better job catching the punts in the air after an early roller pinned Michigan back at their own 3 yard line.

I am very satisfied that Michigan had their best performance of the season in their final game in the Big House. The crowd brought a surprisingly high level of energy, and stuck around well into Garbage Time. We all deserved to celebrate being together in Ann Arbor one last time in 2024, and this team deserved to end the home season on a high note. Next up: a battle with the Buckeyes for Ryan Day’s job. SMASH!

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By the Numbers: Game 7 vs. Northwestern

2021_04_UM20_Rutgers13_0-9

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines are coming off a bye that followed their second consecutive road victory.  The latest victory was a 32-29 nail-biter that included a little bit of everything.  We saw diving catches, interceptions, and hurdled defenders, but also bad reads and blown coverages.

NEXT UP: vs. Northwestern: 77th, 1.0

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 21.6, Michigan Win Probability 89%

Vegas lines have again landed close to SP+ model projections.  I recorded the opening line at Michigan -21.5 on Sunday, so SP+ would have chosen Michigan by 0.1 point.  The line has moved to Michigan -23.5, so Bill Connelly has recorded the pick against the spread for Northwestern. Regardless, the Wolverines will need to avoid the proverbial trap game stumble with a potential top-ten showdown in East Lansing looming next weekend.  

Michigan Offense (18th) vs. Northwestern Defense (31st) 

The Northwestern defense has traditionally been the strength of the team under Pat Fitzgerald.  However, the 2021 team’s 31st SP+ defensive ranking is very misleading.  Their preseason ranking (12th) is still carrying most of the weight.  Longtime defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz retired after 51(!) seasons of coaching.  Northwestern also ranked dead last 129th in all FBS in returning production overall, and 128th on defense specifically.  All that personnel and leadership turnover has resulted in major issues for the Wildcats, especially in their run fits.  Northwestern has allowed an average of 272 yards rushing to their 3 previous Big Ten opponents. That bodes well for the Wolverines’ rushing attack.  

Michigan Defense (9th) vs. Northwestern Offense (108th)

Michigan’s unit-versus-unit advantage will be even more lopsided when Northwestern has the ball.  The Wildcats have scored less than 25 points in 5 of their 6 games, including just 24 points and 275 yards of total offense against FCS Indiana State.  Northwestern does usually trend upward as the season progresses, and they are coming off a much cleaner performance that resulted in a 21-7 victory at home over Rutgers.  

The Wolverines’ talent advantage should allow Michigan to overwhelm the Wildcats in the trenches.  The one potential troubling matchup will be running back Evan Hull and slot receiver Stephan Robinson against the Michigan linebackers in coverage. 

PREDICTION:  Michigan returns from the bye week trying to stay focused on the task at hand without looking ahead to hugely impactful matchups down the line.  I expect the coaching staff and upperclassmen leadership will be able to keep Northwestern as the primary focus.  

From a game plan standpoint, I think Josh Gattis will return to a heavy dose of running the ball against a pretty porous Northwestern front.  It will be interesting to see how Pat Fitzgerald and his defensive staff decide to load the box, and how Gattis reacts with the passing game going over the top.  

On defense, Michigan will be trying to shore up some of the issues the linebackers have experienced since Big Ten play started.  I expect Michigan will be able to pressure QB Ryan Hillinski with 4 or 5 rushers and may challenge Josh Ross, Nikhai Hill-Green, and Junior Colson to improve their underneath pass coverage.  We’ll see if there is a trend using Hill-Green more on standard downs, and the true freshman Colson seeing his snap count increase on passing downs.
Michigan 41 Northwestern 10 (PRESEASON Michigan 24 Northwestern 20)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (date)

  • SP+ Overall: 8th (same), 20.1
  • SP+ Offense: 18th (↑8), 35.6
  • SP+ Defense: 9th (↑1), 16.1
  • SP+ Special Teams: 2nd (↑1), 0.7

AP Poll: 6th (↑2), 1,214

Coaches’ Poll: 6th (↑1), 1,299

CFP Rank: N/A

U-M Resume after Game #6
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Michigan Football By the Numbers: Northwestern

It’s tough to win on the road in the B1G Ten, especially when you’ve spotted a 17-point lead to a team with a top-25 defense.  Michigan definitely showed some guts as they pulled off the largest comeback in Jim Harbaugh’s NCAA coaching career.

TABLE: FIVE FACTORS

OFFENSE

I am not worried about the Offensive Coordinator Committee, yet. Maybe this game was more about a solid Northwestern defensive staff having a bye week to prepare. Michigan still averaged 5.7 yards per play against a top-25 defense. However, I have had this blind optimism in years past. I held out hope that there was an ace or two up Harbaugh’s sleeve that he would pull out at exactly the right moment, perhaps against a favored Buckeye team. If I recall correctly, those previous seasons ended in disappointment. Here’s hoping that the offensive game plan looks sharper against what should be an over-matched Maryland squad.

DEFENSE

Do you want the good news, or the bad news first? The good news is that Don Brown and his staff can be counted on to make superb in-game adjustments. Once Michigan’s defensive staff has diagnosed the offense’s plan of attack, they are almost lights out. The bad news? Slow starts on the road have resulted in giving up 31 first half points, as opposed to just 3 in the second half. The Wolverine defense has carried the lion’s share of the load under Harbaugh, but offensive success was the only thing that made this game feel different than Week 1 versus Notre Dame.

S&P+ THROUGH WEEK 5

MICHIGAN S&P+
Overall: 21.6, 7th (down 2)
Offense: 35.6, 27th (down 3)
Defense: 14.5, 4th (same)

REGULAR SEASON PROJECTIONS vs. RESULTS

@ Northwestern: UM 20 NEB 17
Pregame S&P+: UM by 10.7, 5-0
Pregame Clint: UM by 17, 4-1
MICH Cumulative 2ndO Wins: 4.4

vs. Nebraska: UM 56 NEB 10
Pregame S&P+: UM by 8.6, 4-0
Pregame Clint: UM by 11, 3-1
MICH Cumulative 2ndO Wins: 3.6

vs. SMU: UM 45 SMU 20
Pregame S&P+: UM by 20.0, 3-0
Pregame Clint: UM by 39, 2-1
MICH Cumulative 2ndO Wins: 2.6

vs. Western Michigan: UM 49 WMU 3
Pregame S&P+: UM by 10.8, 2-0
Pregame Clint: UM by 25, 1-1
MICH Cumulative 2ndO Wins: 1.6

@ Notre Dame: ND 24 UM 17
Preseason S&P+: ND by 0.1, 1-0
Preseason Clint: UM by 4, 0-1
MICH Cumulative 2ndO Wins: 0.6

NEXT UP

vs. Maryland: Overall 3.2, 56th
M Offense 35.6, (27th) vs. O Defense 25.5 (50th), Midpoint: 30.55
M Defense 14.5 (4th) vs. O Offense 28.3 (76th), Midpoint: 21.4

PREGAME EDGE: Michigan
The midpoint S&P+ gives a 9.15 point edge to Michigan. The Terrapins have a slightly better-than-average defense, and slightly worse-than-average offense.

GAME WEEK UPDATE: The Wolverines simply play much better at home. I expect to see Maryland cause some early problems before Michigan settles in and starts to roll along. I am particularly interested to see if the Michigan defense can eliminate the penalty issues. On the offensive side, I wonder what happened to Grant Perry?
Michigan 35 Maryland 10 (PRESEASON: Michigan 45 Maryland 10)

TL;DR SUMMARY

Some concerning trends are emerging, but Michigan is 4-1 and still showing signs of growth offensively. A home tilt versus the wildly inconsistent Maryland Terrapins should be another opportunity for the Wolverines to correct mistakes before key games against Wisconsin, MSU, and PSU.