Tag: 2021

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Michigan 11 Georgia 34 – Orange Bowl (CFP SF) Game 14 Recap

GAME 14 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 34-11, Georgia by 23 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Georgia by 5.8 (-17.2)
CD Projection: Michigan by 1 (-24)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 14 RECAP vs. Georgia – Orange Bowl

This turned into the nightmare scenario for how Michigan was approaching the game. The Wolverines won the toss and deferred. Georgia marched 80 yards in 7 plays for an opening touchdown on a well-scouted and perfectly scripted drive. When Michigan turned the ball over on downs at the Georgia 41 on their first possession, it was clear the Wolverines were going to play from behind. That is not where you want to be against a historically good defense.

Offensively, Michigan had their identity snuffed out. The Bulldogs dominated Michigan’s hard-nosed, smash-mouth running attack. With garbage time removed, the Wolverines managed just a 23% Success Rate on called run plays. When the offensive line did create creases for Haskins, Corum, and Edwards the Georgia linebackers were tremendous tacklers and gave up next to nothing after contact.

The Bulldogs also generated more pressure on Cade McNamara than previously seen this season. McNamara was sacked 4 times, and never settled into a rhythm throwing the ball. He also threw 2 interceptions. This was the antithesis of how Michigan’s offense had functioned in 2021. At the end, Jim Harbaugh inserted freshman QB JJ McCarthy because his scrambling ability was a necessity just to survive down-to-down versus Georgia’s front.

On the defensive side, the Bulldogs also ran circles around Michigan. The first 4 Georgia drives were all scoring opportunities, resulting in 2 touchdowns and 2 field goals, yielding 5.0 points per scoring opportunity. On the fifth drive, Georgia QB Stetson Bennett found Jermaine Burton for a 57-yard touchdown strike that felt like the exclamation point.

To Michigan’s credit, they kept battling despite the lopsided score. Josh Ross again led the team with 11 tackles, and sophomore DL added 7 tackles. Dax Hill returned from an unknown injury or illness and threatened a handful of passes on the edge.

But, in the end this was Georgia’s day. Michigan needed to play another near-perfect game to push this game to the brink. The Bulldogs avalanched the Wolverines early, and gave very little chance for Michigan to claw back.

Instead, most fans turned to a New Year’s Eve mentality for most of the evening. We spent a lot of time reflecting and appreciating the great year that was 2021 for Michigan Football. Then, Michigan started making resolutions to build a better 2022.

2021 Orange Bowl Georgia 34 Michigan 11 Final StatsDownload
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By the Numbers: Game 14 vs. Georgia – Orange Bowl (CFP SF)

LAST GAME RECAP

The Wolverines jumped out in front of Iowa and never looked back as they eventually steamrolled the Hawkeyes 42-3 to win the Big Ten Championship in Indianapolis.

NEXT UP: vs. Georgia: 1st, 31.7 

PREGAME SP+: Georgia by 5.8, Michigan Win Probability 37%

With this being the Orange Bowl, taking place in Miami at a true neutral site, the projection is the difference between the two teams’ SP+ ratings.  The Vegas line has stayed pretty steady at Georgia (-7), so the SP+ model picks the Dawgs to win, but Michigan to cover.

Michigan Offense (16th) vs. Georgia Defense (1st) 

Josh Gattis is the freshly awarded Broyles Award winner, given to the top assistant coach in the nation.  Gattis’ last three game plans have been works of football art.  Michigan’s offensive Success Rate (garbage time removed) in the last three games: 60% @ Maryland; 72% vs. Ohio State; 48% vs. Iowa.  Perhaps more importantly, since identifying their struggles to finish drives in the mid-season, the Wolverines are now averaging 5.0 points per scoring attempt, and have been 6.0+ in their last 4 games.  

This Georgia defense is a whole other beast, though.  Before giving up 41 points to the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game, the Bulldogs were giving up less than a touchdown per game on the season (6.9 pts/game).  This match up pits the Michigan run-first mentality against an absolute juggernaut defense.  The Georgia players are almost all former blue chip prospects, with huge size and blazing speed.

In order to have success, the Wolverines will have to do another masterful job of keeping the defense guessing, and they’ll need Georgia to guess wrong at least a handful of times.  The most vulnerable area to attack this defense will be over the middle in the passing game.  An ideal situation would be a combination of the Wisconsin and Michigan State offensive game plans, with a much better running attack in the second half than we saw in East Lansing.  

Michigan Defense (7th) vs. Georgia Offense (3rd)

When the Bulldogs get the ball, there will be fascinating individual battles all across the field.  It seems like defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald will have junior safety Daxton Hill at his disposal, and that is a huge crisis averted.  Hill is the Michigan defender best suited to match up with the Dawgs’ most dangerous offensive weapons.  Georgia likes to get multiple tight ends onto the field, with the big bodies flexed out to block on the perimeter.  Dax has also been the Wolverines’ most consistent edge player in terms of taking on blocks and tackling quick screens.

In the vertical passing game, Georgia is likely welcoming back their most dangerous receiving threat, George Pickens.  Pickens suffered an ACL injury in March, but has taken limited snaps in the last two games for the Bulldogs.  The other major threat for MacDonald to account for with his scheme is true freshman tight end Brock Bowers.  Bowers has been the favorite target of QB Stetson Bennett in the absence of Pickens.  The Wolverines will need another herculean effort from their pass defense to contain those two, on par with the performance versus Ohio State’s wide receiving corps. 

With all that said, what Georgia really wants to do is establish the run game and march along the ground, very similarly to what we’ve seen from the Wolverines in 2021.  While Georgia boasts the 3rd ranked SP+ offense, they have earned that slot versus good-not-great defensive units.  Here are the top 5 SP+ defensive units on the Bulldogs’ schedule this year, with Georgia’s offensive points scored in parentheses: #3 Clemson (3); #10 Alabama (24); #21 Auburn (34); #27 Alabama-Birmingham (49); #34 Arkansas (30).  There is reason to believe that Michigan’s 7th-ranked defense can hold up against the Georgia run game.  Then the Bulldogs’ offensive tackles will be challenged to block both Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo on passing downs.  

PREDICTION: Both teams will show their commitment to battling it out in the trenches via the run game, and I think both defenses will maintain the upper hand.  The early stalemate feeling may feel frustrating, but I would call that success for Michigan.  For most of Georgia’s season, they raced in front of teams via explosive plays, and then leaned on their historically tough defense.  Michigan has been in more gut-check moments in 2021, and should relish a close game in the 4th quarter.  At that point, I believe it will be up to the unheralded quarterbacks.  Stetson Bennett has a running element to his game that makes him dangerous, but I think Cade McNamara will show his mental toughness one more time and make the play the Wolverines need.
Michigan 25 Georgia 24

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (12/05/21), 12-1

  • SP+ Overall: 4th (same), 25.9
  • SP+ Offense: 16th (↑1), 37.7
  • SP+ Defense: 7th (same), 14.5
  • SP+ Special Teams: 3rd (↓1), 2.7

AP Poll: 2nd (same), 1,480

Coaches’ Poll: 2nd (↑1), 1,474

CFP Rank: 2nd (same)

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U-M Resume after Game #13
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Michigan 42 Iowa 3 – 2021 Big Ten Championship Game Recap

GAME 13 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 42-3, Michigan by 39 over Iowa
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 11.1 (+27.9)
CD Projection: Michigan by 18 (+21)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 13 RECAP vs. Iowa (Big Ten Championship)

Football is an emotional sport. It’s very difficult to play the game well without wearing all your passion on your sleeve. However, you have to harness that emotional power. Players have to use their emotion as fuel.

Coaching football is a very interesting high wire act. You have to inspire your players to bring the maximum emotional energy, but you yourself have to try to stay balanced. You have to be a model of how to wield that control over your emotions. Coaches love to preach about not getting too high, or too low. Peaks and valleys ideally have very little space between them, in a coach’s eyes.

Being a fan is almost the inverse of all that. It is pure unbridled emotion all the time. It’s constant emotional escalation, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. The valleys get excavated to greater depths. The mountains are stacked upon to push the peaks higher into the stratosphere.

I try to be much closer to objective than most fans. It helps me modulate my own emotion to dive into the numbers immediately. In the press box, I don’t know how well I could contain myself if I wasn’t plunking away on my keyboard recording the play data. That is why this recap is coming out the day AFTER the Big Ten Championship game. Last night, I couldn’t focus on the numbers. I was up in the clouds with the rest of the Wolverines. Sorry, not sorry.

Offensively, Michigan was near perfectly balanced. With garbage time removed, the play calls were 50/50 run to pass. Michigan amassed 461 total yards: 250 yards passing (54%) and 211 yards rushing (46%).

Hassan Haskins carried most of the workload with 17 carries, but it was the Zoom half of the #BoomAndZoom combo that set the pace. Blake Corum kicked off the scoring with a 67 yard touchdown run in the first quarter.

Donovan Edwards followed that up on the next offensive snap on the ensuing drive. Edwards caught a swing pass on the edge, and then uncorked a beautiful 46 yard spiral to Roman Wilson for a 75-yard touchdown.

Iowa showed a lot of guts by staying in the fight and battling through the entire 2nd quarter, and most of the 3rd. But eventually the dam broke and 21 points came like a tidal wave in the 4th quarter.

On defense, Michigan made the key plays when they had to. Aidan Hutchinson was relentless for the entire game, and earned Big Ten Championship Game MVP honors for his efforts: 1 sack and 7 QB pressures.

Josh Ross led the Wolverines with 9 tackles while Michigan absolutely strangled the Iowa rushing attack. The Hawkeyes could only muster an 18% Success Rate on run plays, with garbage time removed. They ended with 32 carries for 114 sack-adjusted yards, 3.5 yards per carry,

The special teams units put the cherry on top of the championship sundae. Brad Robbins flipped the field as Iowa was grasping for their last breath in the 3rd quarter. His 64-yard punt moved the ball from Michigan’s 13 yard line to the Iowa 23 yard line. The Hawkeyes never moved back into Michigan territory.

After that next Iowa possession, Jay Harbaugh unleashed another punt block. Cornelius Johnson, the Wolverines’ leading receiver of the season, blocked his 2nd punt of the year. A couple JJ McCarthy runs, a Cade McNamara dime, and a Haskins plunge finished off the sequence to provide a perfect microcosm of Michigan’s brand of complementary football.

Kudos to the Michigan Football program. The players have been a joy to watch. The coaches had to envision this path before it could be reality. Aidian Hutchinson spoke in the post game about the connection between Michigan’s 42 points and Oxford HS junior Tate Myre’s #42 jersey. “God works in mysterious ways,” said Hutchinson. I pray we can all pull together like this program has. They have been a true inspiration.

Hail! To the Victors: the 2021 Michigan Wolverines, the greatest Michigan football team of this generation.

2021-13-UM-42-Iowa-3-StatsDownload
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By the Numbers: Game 13 vs. Iowa (Big Ten Championship Game)

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines scaled the mountain, and didn’t even have to die trying.  While the Big House rocked on a snowy day, Michigan was physically dominant on offense and on defense as they pounded the Ohio State Buckeyes 42-27. 

NEXT UP: vs. Iowa: 21st, 13.7 

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 11.1, Michigan Win Probability 74%

I’ve mentioned it a few times this season, but it seems to be getting more and more true.  I think the Vegas bookmakers may have reverse-engineered the SP+ projections.  Currently, Michigan (-10.5) is projected to win by 11.1 by Connelly’s model.

Michigan Offense (22nd) vs. Iowa Defense (4th) 

Iowa’s defense is an open book.  They have run almost the exact same system for a decade.  The Hawkeye’s core philosophy is almost exactly what Michigan’s defensive approach was last week versus OSU.  They are going to stay true to their principles, keep WRs in front of them and tackle well.  Their best defensive player is LB Jack Campbell.  Campbell has racked up 121 tackles in 12 games.  Hassan Haskins versus Jack Campbell could be marketed individually as the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object.  Josh Gattis will likely tap into some of his creativity to find favorable matchups on the edges and underneath the Iowa coverage.  

Michigan Defense (7th) vs. Iowa Offense (92nd)

The Hawkeye’s offense is the lowest ranked unit Michigan has faced since Indiana.  They have two quarterbacks that have separate strengths, but neither has seized control of the offensive unit.  Of greatest concern for Iowa fans is they do NOT have their normal stable of NFL-bound offensive tackles.  The Hawkeyes’ are led by their All Conference center, Tyler Linderbaum.  They will need to find some running room inside, because they stand almost zero chance of slowing down Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo on passing downs.

PREDICTION: Kirk Ferentz and Jim Harbaugh have spoken glowingly about one another this week.  It’s pretty easy to see many similarities in their philosophies, and how they’ve built their respective programs.  For Michigan, the key will be eliminating self-inflicted wounds.  Taking care of the football, and making solid pre-snap decisions has been a strength of the Wolverines and their QB Cade McNamara.   Only 3 teams have scored more than 20 points against Mike MacDonald’s defense.  If the Wolverines avoid shooting themselves in the foot, I can’t see Iowa becoming the 4th.  
Michigan 31 Iowa 13

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/30/21, 11-1

  • SP+ Overall: 4th (same), 24.8
  • SP+ Offense: 17th (↑5), 37.1
  • SP+ Defense: 7th (same), 14.9
  • SP+ Special Teams: 2nd (same), 2.6

AP Poll: 2nd (↑4), 1,449

Coaches’ Poll: 3rd (↑3), 1,408

CFP Rank: 2nd (↑3)

U-M Resume after Game #12
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Michigan 42 Ohio State 27 – Game 12 Recap

It’s Great…To Be…A MICHIGAN WOLVERINE!

GAME 12 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 42-27, Michigan by 15 over Ohio State
SP+ Projection: OSU by 5.8 (+20.8)
CD Projection: OSU by 3 (+18)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 12 RECAP vs. Ohio State

What a day! It was a fitting cap to an outstanding regular season for these Michigan Wolverines. Michigan dominated on both sides of the ball on the way to a 42-27 statement victory over their greatest rival, the Ohio State Buckeyes. This is Jim Harbaugh’s first victory over the Buckeyes, and Ryan Day’s first loss to any team in the Big Ten.

Offensively, the best way to describe today is COMPLETE. As usual, the Wolverines were led by their senior running back Hassan Haskins. Haskins carried 28 times for 169 yards and a Michigan-record-tying 5 touchdowns. Blake Corum returned to action and also chipped in 87 yards and 14.5 yards per carry.

When the Wolverines wanted to throw the ball, they were also successful. Cade McNamara was 13-of-19 for 159 yards after shaking off an early interception. JJ McCarthy flashed all-world talent once again on a beautiful 31-yard connection with Roman Wilson along the right sideline. Josh Gattis brought the best game plan he’s ever put together, and the Wolverines executed to the tune of 42 points and a 72% Success Rate.

Most of the concern heading into the game was whether the Michigan defense could stand up to a historically great Ohio State offense. The feeling of what may be possible started to spread through the Big House at half time when the Buckeyes only had 13 points to show. CJ Stroud amassed 394 passing yards, and Jackson Smith-Njigba was a human highlight reel, but the Bucks could never catch the Wolverines on the score board in the 2nd half.

Aidan Hutchinson looked nearly unblockable again. His 3rd quarter sack gave him sole possession of the Michigan single season sack record, with at least two games yet to play this year. Josh Ross also stepped forward and made 2 or 3 huge stops on key short yardage situations. It was a fitting narrative that these leaders would stamp The Game with such heroic performances.

The return game was solid again, another common theme for this 2021 team. Michigan won the field position battle, if only slightly. Perhaps the biggest key was avoiding FG attempts in the red zone. Michigan had seven opportunities in scoring position, and scored 6 touchdowns without having to attempt a field goal.

Jim Harbaugh echoed Wolverine lore in his press conference, stating that the Michigan faithful will be celebrating deep into the night. He is 100% right. I pray the players and coaches can enjoy this as well. There is still work to be done, as Michigan looks for their first Big Ten Championship in 17 years next weekend. Onward!

2021-12-Michigan-42-Ohio-State-27-StatsDownload