LAST WEEK RECAP
The Wolverines scored with under a minute remaining to take the lead, and held on to secure the 27-24 victory over the USC Trojans in an instant classic. The defense held their own against a top-tier offense, and Kalel Mullings was an absolute beast on the ground, including a Jim Brown style rumble for 63 yards on the game winning drive.
NEXT UP: vs. Minnesota: SP+ 47th, 6.3
PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 12.0, Michigan Win Probability 77%
The Vegas lines are finally shifting closer to the SP+ model output. Right now Michigan is a 10.5 point betting favorite, and SP+ likes the Wolverines by 12. I am surprised Minnesota’s defense stayed ranked in the top 20 after allowing Iowa to score 31 points last week.
Michigan Offense (61st) vs. Minnesota Defense (17th)
All the analysis and prognostication is centered on this match up with Alex Orji making his second start at QB. After going 7-for-12 for 32 yards passing last game, a huge portion of the Michigan fan base wants to see more passing game competence. Unfortunately for them, rainy conditions in the Big House will likely limit the play calling options available to offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell. The Wolverines are completely satisfied duplicating what worked for them last week versus USC, because it also worked just fine for Iowa in a 31-14 victory in Minneapolis. For me, the most important thing is getting your five best offensive weapons onto the field together as frequently as possible. Kalel Mullings, Coleston Loveland, Donovan Edwards, Max Bredeson, and Semaj Morgan should see a lion’s share of the snaps in order to threaten the entire field.
Michigan Defense (5th) vs. Minnesota Offense (89th)
Put very simply, this is a David vs. Goliath mismatch. Michigan has to handle their business down-to-down to avoid giving the Gophers any sense of confidence. Under PJ Fleck, Minnesota has been a run-first offense with a smash mentality similar to Sherrone Moore’s Wolverines. However, this year they are more reliant on a super dangerous wide receiver #9 Daniel Jackson, and transfer QB from New Hampshire #16 Max Brosmer. One potential snag for Michigan could be depth at the defensive back position. Will Johnson was not 100% healthy to finish last week’s game, so #20 Jyaire Hill and #12 Aamir Hall may be called on to answer the challenge against Jackson. I expect Michigan’s defensive line to wreak havoc on the Gophers all day, but the defensive backs will have to avoid coverage busts and missed tackles that have been too commonplace to start this season.
PREDICTION: Michigan will likely need to build their own energy down on the sidelines. It’s a grey, rainy day in Ann Arbor that might suppress the enthusiasm of the Big House crowd after last week’s classic comeback. I expect the defense to set up the offense with a couple short fields, and if Orji and the offense cash those possessions in early, this could become a blow out. Right now, I need to see a little cleaner execution from the offensive line, and more creativity with personnel from Kirk Campbell before I start predicting high score totals for the Wolverines.
Michigan 21 Minnesota 6 (PRESEASON Michigan 24 Minnesota 9)
MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/14/24, 3-1
CFP Rank: N/A
SP+ Overall: 15th (↓3), 15.8
SP+ Offense: 61st (↓4), 28.5
SP+ Defense: 5th (↓1), 13.1
SP+ Special Teams: 2nd (↑9), 0.4
AP Poll: 12th (↑6), 805
Coaches’ Poll: 12th (↑5), 692
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- By the Numbers: Game 5 vs. Minnesota - September 28, 2024
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- By the Numbers: Game 4 vs. USC - September 21, 2024
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- By the Numbers: Game 3 vs. Arkansas State - September 12, 2024
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- By the Numbers: 2024 Michigan Football Season Preview - August 30, 2024
- Michigan 34 Washington 13 – Game 15 CFP Final Recap - January 11, 2024