Michigan 27 Minnesota 24 – Game 5 Recap

GAME 5 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 27-24, Michigan by 3 over Minnesota
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 12.0 (-9.0)
CD Projection: Michigan by 15 (-12)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 5 RECAP vs. Minnesota

Michigan offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell answered the bell. This game plan was solid, and creative. We saw personnel adjustments that better utilized the Wolverines’ talent, even with Semaj Morgan sidelined. Unfortunately, Michigan is still one or two mistakes away from efficient execution. Kalel Mullings cashed in on a long run, and a short field to score two first quarter touchdowns. A blocked punt led to a 3rd score and a 21-3 halftime lead. The yardage told a different story, though. The Gophers outgained Michigan 130-107 in the first half, and 166-134 in the second half. Coleston Loveland still looks less than 100%, and now Myles Hinton adds another big injury concern at left tackle.

While it was clearly a story of two halves for Michigan overall, the defense was a little different. The Wolverines looked dominant in the 1st and 3rd quarters, but could not get the big stops necessary in the 2nd and 4th quarters. Linebacker Ernest Hausmann led the effort with 9 total tackles, and Mason Graham led with 2 tackles for loss. Maybe the highlight of the game was an acrobatic interception by Jayaire Hill on a deep bomb along the sideline. Hill was in great position, got his head around to find the ball, made the pick with his hands and managed to toe tap in bounds.

Placekicker Dominic Zvada reentered the scoring sheet with two field goals, and provided the eventual game winning points. Tommy Doman averaged nearly 47 yards per punt, but a first half touchback, and a big 60-yard return in the second half killed the net effect. Michigan averaged just 26.4 net yards per punt, and lost a significant field position advantage in the second half.

Right now Michigan Football feels like a boxer who has been stunned, and just needs to hang in there until the bell. The injuries are piling up, and it seems like most other teams have had their first bye week at this point. The Wolverines will need to get back to work right away to prep for their first road trip out west to Seattle next week. Then they will feel the relief of some rest during a bye week. The Michigan staff needs to tighten up their execution to ride their complementary football style to another victory before the break. Smash!

By the Numbers: Game 5 vs. Minnesota

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines scored with under a minute remaining to take the lead, and held on to secure the 27-24 victory over the USC Trojans in an instant classic. The defense held their own against a top-tier offense, and Kalel Mullings was an absolute beast on the ground, including a Jim Brown style rumble for 63 yards on the game winning drive. 

NEXT UP: vs. Minnesota: SP+ 47th, 6.3

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 12.0, Michigan Win Probability 77%

The Vegas lines are finally shifting closer to the SP+ model output.  Right now Michigan is a 10.5 point betting favorite, and SP+ likes the Wolverines by 12.  I am surprised Minnesota’s defense stayed ranked in the top 20 after allowing Iowa to score 31 points last week.

Michigan Offense (61st) vs. Minnesota Defense (17th) 

All the analysis and prognostication is centered on this match up with Alex Orji making his second start at QB.  After going 7-for-12 for 32 yards passing last game, a huge portion of the Michigan fan base wants to see more passing game competence.  Unfortunately for them, rainy conditions in the Big House will likely limit the play calling options available to offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell. The Wolverines are completely satisfied duplicating what worked for them last week versus USC, because it also worked just fine for Iowa in a 31-14 victory in Minneapolis.  For me, the most important thing is getting your five best offensive weapons onto the field together as frequently as possible.  Kalel Mullings, Coleston Loveland, Donovan Edwards, Max Bredeson, and Semaj Morgan should see a lion’s share of the snaps in order to threaten the entire field.

Michigan Defense (5th) vs. Minnesota Offense (89th)

Put very simply, this is a David vs. Goliath mismatch.  Michigan has to handle their business down-to-down to avoid giving the Gophers any sense of confidence.  Under PJ Fleck, Minnesota has been a run-first offense with a smash mentality similar to Sherrone Moore’s Wolverines.  However, this year they are more reliant on a super dangerous wide receiver #9 Daniel Jackson, and transfer QB from New Hampshire #16 Max Brosmer.  One potential snag for Michigan could be depth at the defensive back position.  Will Johnson was not 100% healthy to finish last week’s game, so #20 Jyaire Hill and #12 Aamir Hall may be called on to answer the challenge against Jackson.  I expect Michigan’s defensive line to wreak havoc on the Gophers all day, but the defensive backs will have to avoid coverage busts and missed tackles that have been too commonplace to start this season.

PREDICTION: Michigan will likely need to build their own energy down on the sidelines.  It’s a grey, rainy day in Ann Arbor that might suppress the enthusiasm of the Big House crowd after last week’s classic comeback.  I expect the defense to set up the offense with a couple short fields, and if Orji and the offense cash those possessions in early, this could become a blow out.  Right now, I need to see a little cleaner execution from the offensive line, and more creativity with personnel from Kirk Campbell before I start predicting high score totals for the Wolverines.

Michigan 21 Minnesota 6 (PRESEASON Michigan 24 Minnesota 9)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/14/24, 3-1

CFP Rank: N/A

SP+ Overall: 15th (↓3), 15.8
SP+ Offense: 61st (↓4), 28.5
SP+ Defense: 5th (↓1), 13.1
SP+ Special Teams: 2nd (↑9), 0.4

AP Poll: 12th (↑6), 805

Coaches’ Poll: 12th (↑5), 692

Michigan 52 Minnesota 10 – Game 6 Recap

GAME 6 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 52-10, Michigan by 42 over Minnesota
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 18.5 (+23.5)
CD Projection: Michigan by 27 (+15)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 6 RECAP @ Minnesota

The Wolverines have settled on their starting five offensive linemen, and it paid off. Michigan put up a 67% success rate against Minnesota, who came into the contest as the 28th ranked defense, per SP+. That is the 2nd highest mark of the season for Michigan (68% vs. Bowling Green). JJ McCarthy was also solid in the passing game with a 70% completion rate, 219 yards, and a touchdown to Colston Loveland. The most impactful part of McCarthy’s game was adding 2 touchdown runs. The QB run game must officially be accounted for by the rest of the defensive coordinators on Michigan’s schedule.

We’ve seen the Michigan defense give up an explosive score early (vs. Rutgers), and a few times late (most recently Nebraska). This time, the cringe-worthy play happened just before halftime when Minnesota’s WR Daniel Jackson beat Mike Sainristil on a fade route late in the 2nd quarter. After the Wolverines were staying blocked on some outside zone runs, this looked like there could be significant question marks. Then the 2nd half arrived, and Mason Graham and his partners smothered the Golden Gophers, allowing only 46 total yards after half time.

On special teams, James Turner has settled in as the place kicker. He has shown a strong leg, and looked solid on all 7 (!) extra points while also converting a chip shot field goal. Jake Thaw and Tyler Morris continue to compete for the punt return duties. Seems like Thaw is the “safe” option, while Morris probably has more upside for an explosive return.

While the B1G Ten season’s opening three games have come against similar opponent profiles (Rutgers, Nebraska, & Minnesota), we are seeing the Wolverines continually improve week after week. The offensive line is settling in, but there is still room to grow as the running backs continue to look to add more big runs. The interior defensive line appears unblock-able for long stretches in every game, but there are still cracks visible in the secondary. This team is playing extraordinarily well, but the scariest thing is that they might not be at their peak. Yet.

By the Numbers: Game 6 @ Minnesota

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan finally delivered a dominant performance in all phases.  This one came on the road in Lincoln as the Wolverines pounded Nebraska 45-7

NEXT UP: @ Minnesota: SP+ 46th, 4.0

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 18.5, Michigan Win Probability 86%

Michigan stayed #1 overall in the SP+ rankings, thanks to the offense jumping back up into the top ten unit rankings.  The Golden Gophers are 46th overall, led by their 28th ranked defense.

Michigan Offense (9th) vs. Minnesota Defense (28th) 

The Wolverines may have settled on a 5-man offensive line unit for the time being.  Ladarius Henderson got his first start at left tackle last week, and Karsen Barnhart shifted over to right tackle.  The run game execution looked a little cleaner to me.  Now we’ll be looking to see Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards make a man miss and create explosive runs. 

JJ McCarthy is back to his razor sharp form.  McCarthy continues to carve up zone coverages through the middle of the field.  He also presents a major headache when he moves out of the pocket.  It’s nearly impossible to stay tight in coverage on Michigan’s receivers for the extra three or four seconds when JJ is on the move.  I expect to see the Wolverines exploit the middle of Minnesota’s defense through the air, but maybe we will see more targets toward the tight ends today.  

Michigan Defense (2nd) vs. Minnesota Offense (77th)

Week six presents another lopsided mismatch for the Michigan defense.  Minnesota has an OK running attack when they are at full strength, but they have been missing their best running back recently.  Regardless of who is carrying the ball, defensive tackles Kris Jenkins and Mason Graham have been almost impossible to block.  We expect Graham to return for this game with a club on his hand.  I will be interested to see if he sheds blocks at the same rate without use of one hand.  

The Wolverines’ pass defense presents the best opportunity for growth and improvement in Minneapolis.  We still haven’t seen the outside corners challenge and press the opposing wide receivers at the line of scrimmage.  Also, some of the zone coverages in the middle have yielded big windows for quarterbacks to hit slants, and those receivers have been able to run after the catch.  I will be looking for more aggressive coverage technique from the corners, expecting the ball to come out quickly.  The added aggression could yield multiple turnovers from Minnesota quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis.  

PREDICTION: The first half of the regular season will come to close at the completion of tonight’s game.  There was remarkable similarity between the first three opponents, and now the 4th-6th opponents are equally comparable.  I think we’ll see a performance very similar to those against Rutgers and Nebraska. 

The one concerning question is whether the prime time (7:30 PM EST) time slot creates issues for Michigan as it did in Week 3 versus Bowling Green.  If the Wolverines come out and can generate another hot start on the road like last week, we’ll see matching results.  But, if there is a lack of energy, or any sloppiness that leads to early turnovers, this Minnesota team and crowd will be ready throw everything they have, including the kitchen sink, toward an upset bid.
Michigan 33 Minnesota 6 (PRESEASON Michigan 31 Minnesota 14)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 10/02/23, 5-0

  • SP+ Overall: 1st (same), 25.0
    • SP+ Offense: 9th (↑4), 37.4
    • SP+ Defense: 2nd (↓1), 12.8
    • SP+ Special Teams: 8th (↑8), 0.4
  • AP Poll: 2nd (same), 1436
  • Coaches’ Poll: 2nd (same), 1503
  • CFP Rank: N/A

M-FOOTBALL 2012: MINNESOTA’S GOPHERS GO FER IT, BUT FALL WAY SHORT AS RESERVE QUARTERBACK DEVIN GARDNER EXCELS IN FIRST START: MICHIGAN 35; MINNESOTA 13.

INJURIES SIDELINE ROBINSON, BUT THE LITTLE BROWN JUG IS ON ITS WAY HOME BECAUSE OF THE WOLVERINE’S DEFENSE, AND DEVIN GARDNER AND FRIENDS.

The Michigan Wolverines football team traveled to the Twin Cities of Minneapolis St. Paul, to meet the Minnesota Gophers in their still new TCF Bank stadium on Saturday. The Wolverines were looking to improve their suddenly uncomfortably uncertain football prospects, and in so doing had to kill Gopher Coach Jerry Kill and Company’s dreams of improving their own bowl prospects with a signature win.

The Gophers must have yearned for the football respectability that a win over the University of Michigan would afford them. They were coming off their most solid win of the season, having destroyed Purdue 44-23 last Saturday. This improved their expectations and gave some probability, but not certainty, to obtaining the object of their quest. Sitting at 5 wins, and 3 Big Ten losses, they critically needed another win to go bowling.

Understandably, they wanted to lay their Gopher paws on our Little Brown Jug again. One of the most venerable and venerated “trophies” in the history of college football, it has dwelt most of its time in Ann Arbor, at home in the home of the Wolverines, and it is difficult to categorize any season that ends with its absence as a success.

Even though M leads the series 71-24-1, the Gophers have had their moments. Rickey Foggy laid a memorable loss on the number two ranked Wolverines in 1986, and for those of us in attendance, that was bitter. And there was that miserable playing surface at the Metro dome, where the fleet and shifty Tony Boles ran up the sideline for a nice gain, but twisted a knee, and lost his playing career, due it was said, to a miserable Metro dome rug. Among those 24 prior Wolverine losses there were some stunners.

The Wolverines set out, as they always do, to provide the Jug with a round trip ticket. But there were obstacles in the way, not the least of which were some aspects of the Wolverine’s team itself.

PREGAME KEYS:

When Denard Robinson fell on his elbow in the second quarter of last Saturday’s Nebraska loss, it illustrated like nothing else could how dependent the Wolverines offensive productivity is on his many athletic skills. Some had suspected that M’s offense was a one act pony, and the Nebraska game seemed to prove the point. This injury changed the course of Michigan’s offense, just as it made Nebraska change its very conservative, contain Robinson at all costs, defense. They went to a hell for leather blitzing scheme which took its toll on Denard’s replacement, Freshman Russell Bellomy.

Russell suffered the growing pains of inexperience, the slings and arrows of some fans, and too little help from his friends as catchable passes were dropped, blitzers were coming free, and nearly everything else that besets QBs in ineffective debuts, beset Russell. It was as intense a baptism and learning situation as it was dismal. Russell was 3 of 16 for 38-yards and three interceptions.

  • Could Denard shake off his injured elbow, start and play at his usual high level of performance shaking off the injury? Actuality: No, the injury has persisted. Good luck trying to find out if Denard will be ready for next week until game time. 
  • If Denard was not available, would Devin Gardner or Russell Bellomy replace him? Prior to Nebraska, Coach Hoke said in a presser that Russell was the back up, and that he was taking most of the snaps. Now the scenario had changed a little and they were saying that Devin Gardner would get more snaps at QB, and that there was competition at the position. Actuality: Devin Gardner started and after a dismal first quarter, got going. The ice breaker was a third and seventeen pass play in which he rolled to his right, circled back left, and heaved a perfect pass to Drew Dileo waiting by himself in the end zone. Devin held the ball for nine seconds before the toss. That play set the Michigan offensive wheels in motion. Devin’s career day included 12 completions, 2 TDs, and one interception. He hit 67% of his passes, hitting 12 of 18, for 234-yards. He had a very athletic run down the sidelines. 
  • Could the Wolverines run the ball with no Denard? Actuality: Late in the game, on fourth and one, Fitz broke up the middle late in the game for a 41-yard score. Almost collared, he put an arm down, regained balance and sped to six. He had 70-yards on 13 carries. Thomas Rawls ran 16 times for 43-yards, and played early in the game. Devin Gardner had 44-yards on 10 carries. Jeremy Gallon rushed twice for 21-yards. The total of 182-yards and a 3.9-yard average rush is nothing to write home about considering the struggle of the competition’s defense against the rush, but its better than some recent results. Could M throw it? Actuality: The passing was not effective in the first quarter. The offensive line did not hold its own in that quarter. The passing game was great the rest of the game. As mentioned Devin had some good runs. On his TD run, he ran as tough as any back and stretched for six . It was a remarkable play that was the game’s turning point. The receiver’s cooperated with Devin. Dileo, Roundtree, and Gallon all making outstanding catches. Gallon was a little inconsistent, fumbling a punt return, and getting a silly block in the back penalty, but he redeemed all by snaring a 47-yarder with a beautiful catch. Relatively short, Gallon showed remarkable elevation making that catch, as he has others. Gallon had four with a score. Drew Dileo had 69-yards on four catches and a TD. Roy Roundtree caught two for 64-yards with a long of 47-yards. This was a spectacular grab he as he wrestled with the defender. The catch was upheld on review. Michigan “won” all its reviews.
  • Would the defense continue to improve? Get off the field and stop big plays? Actuality: The defense did well overall. They snuffed a critical fourth and ones and were great in the red zone, once backing short and goal back up to the twenty. They held Minnesota to 144-yds rushing and 147-yards passing, maintaining another 13 point effort. Jake Ryan had nine tackles, three of which were TFLs. Kenny Demens had 10-tackles with one of those being a TFL. The Gophers were limited to 49-yards offense in the second quarter. Outstanding. But with room for improvement per Coach Hoke.  Probably he was thinking of third and long conversions, and that first drive.
  • Would special teams again be special? Too often the Gophers had good field position on KO returns, and Will Hagerup was less spectacular punting than usual, hitting 3 for 88-yards. His 29.3 average was surprising. Gibbons missed an extra point but got a re-try on a Minnesota gift, keeping his made string intact.
  • Penalties? Michigan made some stupid penalties, but Minnesota hurt themselves, once getting charged for two penalties on the same play, and an ill- advised fake kick was effectively snuffed out be the Wolverines.

BRIEF GAME AND SCORING RECAP:

The Wolverines received and it looked like a replay of last week’s troubles at Nebraska would materialize again as the offensive line and Devin struggled, tossing an early interception, but the defense proved solid and the quarter ended zip to zip. A short punt put the Gophers at the M 43 and they took full advantage of the good field position, driving 43-yards on a 6 play drive ending with a 6-yard TD pass. M-0, Minn.- 7.

The Wolverines put together a sweet 91-yard, 12-play drive featuring the 45-yard end zone reception by Drew Dileo that marked the emergence of Devin Gardner and the resurgence of the Wolverines offense. Dileo knows how to get open and he catches the ball reliably all the time, and spectacularly some of the time. The TD drought was over. M-7, Minn.-7.

The Wolverines showed they meant business by producing a 13-play, 90-yard drive. Roundtree, Funchess, and J. Robinson, caught passes and Gardner contributed a nice run. Thomas Rawls finished the drive with a two-yard TD run and it was 14-7 and halftime.

In the third quarter, Minnesota drove to the M 14, but turned the ball over on downs, and during a 7 play 86-yard drive, Gardner hit Jeremy Gallon for a 47-yard completion. M-21, Minn.-7.

In the 4th quarter Minnesota got 3 back on a 26-yard FG. The defense held them to a FG, after they had got to the M 3-yard line. A good example of the defense’s effectiveness when and opponent is in its red zone. M-21, Minn-10.

Soon Devin Gardner was at it again conducting an 8-play 70-yard scoring drive with Roy Roundtree gathering in a 47-yard reception at the Minnesota three. What a reception that was. Roy caught the ball as well as the arm of the defender, and replay verified that the call of a catch on the field was valid. M-28, Minn-10.

Minnesota produced another long drive of 13-plays and 69-yards, which ended at fourth and goal at the M 2. It was another great defensive stand. M-28, Minn-13.

Fitz Toussaint then ripped off the 41-yard TD jaunt described above and it was over. FINAL: M-35, Minn.-13.

In Coach Jerry Kill’s second season, the Gophers have been a much improved team over the one that the Wolverines destroyed in Ann Arbor last year 58-0. With five wins and three losses, they are hunting for a bowl berth in spite of playing musical chairs at QB and on the offensive line. That said, most teams have not had to pass much against them as rushing yardage has been readily available. The Wolverines rushing game again still struggled somewhat, but with Gardner’s contributions, it was enough for a very needed win.

Congratulations to Devin Gardner who had a spectacular first start, and bring on a good Northwestern team.  And thanks to you for perusing these pages.

 

Go Blue!