
LAST WEEK RECAP
The defense was dominant, and 84 players logged snaps in Michigan’s season-opening
51-7 romp over Colorado State.
NEXT UP: vs. Hawaii: 128th, -26.0
PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 54.6, Michigan Win Probability 100% (rounded)
This is the largest SP+ spread I’ve seen since I started tracking in 2018. I don’t think 100% win probability is technically possible, but it must be 99.5% or higher for Connelly’s numbers to round to 100%.
Michigan Offense (6th) vs. Hawaii Defense (130th)
There are 131 FBS teams, so the Rainbow Warriors can take solace in being slightly less of a disaster than Florida International on defense. All eyes will be on JJ McCarthy’s performance as he takes his turn to start at QB. The weakness of the Hawaii defense does not figure to give Michigan’s coaching staff a really good read on who is better prepared between McCarthy and Cade McNamara. In week 3, the UConn Huskies bring the 119th SP+ rated defense to Ann Arbor, so please take what we see with the necessary grains of salt.
Michigan Defense (10th) vs. Hawaii Offense (115th)
This figures to look a lot like the Wolverines’ dominance of Colorado State. Hawaii is also going to deploy a pass-heavy attack, but without the necessary pass protection up front. For now, Timmy Chang’s air raid offense is appropriately named, but mostly because his quarterback Brayden Schager is going to feel he’s under attack.
PREDICTION: The QB competition will again monopolize the headlines. I am hoping the Michigan crowd can stay positive and encourage both players. In the Big House last Saturday there was a shortage of patience with Cade. The throngs of people are eager to see JJ McCarthy claim the starting job. We’ll see how the sophomore handles the full range of QB duties. I am optimistic that he will show a few flashes of greatness.
Michigan 60 Hawaii 6 (PRESEASON Michigan 56 Hawaii 9)
MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (9/9/2022)
SP+ Overall: 4th ( ↑2), 26.1
SP+ Offense: 6th (same), 41.8
SP+ Defense: 10th ( ↑7), 15.8
AP Poll: 4th ( ↑4), 1,299
Coaches’ Poll: 5th ( ↑1), 1,333
CFP Rank: N/A

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