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Posted on by Clint Derringer

By the Numbers: Game 4 vs. USC

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan handled their business early, but still didn’t look sharp in the passing game.  The Wolverines overcame 3 interceptions and a -2 turnover margin to defeat the Arkansas State Red Wolves 28-18. 

NEXT UP: vs. USC: SP+ 17th, 16.0

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 3.9, Michigan Win Probability 60%

The SP+ model is blind to the QB switch to Alex Orji.  We shall see if the offense ticks up from 57th nationally with the added dimension to the run game.  USC meanwhile is climbing as a defense, but with only two games of data to add atop their preseason ranking.

Michigan Offense (57th) vs. USC Defense (70th) 

The switch to Orji as the starting quarterback will get the majority of media attention.  But, the real test is how much continued improvement we see from the offensive line.  LT Myles Hinton has been good, but nobody else up front has stood out for positive performance.  At a minimum, this unit needs to clean up the mental mistakes.  For the Wolverines to be successful, they need to be successful on standard downs, especially 1st & 10.  Consistently putting 2nd & 5, or 3rd & 1 in front of Alex Orji will allow coordinator Kirk Campbell to utilize any page from the playbook that they’ve installed. 

Michigan Defense (4th) vs. USC Offense (4th)

Very similarly to the Texas matchup, this is strength-on-strength.  Lincoln Riley knows how to maximize his QB’s talent.  Miller Moss is not a serious run threat, but they will look to pick on the linebackers with RPO’s, as well as attacking Jayaire Hill down the field.  Wink Martindale showed that he can turn the dial down last week versus Arkansas State.  Early in this game, we want to see Michigan hang back and force USC to hand he ball off into light boxes.  The Wolverines’ defensive line should be able to win one-on-one matchups inside, allowing the linebackers to stay in passing lanes. 

PREDICTION: Michigan needs their best performance of the season to beat the Trojans.  There are a handful of 50/50 what-if matchups, and I think Michigan needs to win three or four of those coin flips.  We need Orji to threaten the safeties with his legs (good blocking) and with his arm (stretching deep when they creep forward).  We also need to move the chains consistently enough that USC is forced to drive 70+ yards on each of their possessions.  Keep the game close, and look to wear the Trojans down in the 4th quarter.

More bad news for Michigan as we hear that tight end Coleston Loveland will be sidelined with a shoulder injury.  This puts more pressure on Kirk Campbell to scheme up plays that will give Alex Orji a chance to hit an open receiver.  When in doubt, pull the ball down and run!  It just feels like there may be too many what-ifs for Michigan to overcome.
Michigan 20 USC 24 (PRESEASON Michigan 27 USC 10)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/17/24, 2-1

CFP Rank: N/A

SP+ Overall: 12th (↑1), 17.4
SP+ Offense: 57th (↑10), 28.4
SP+ Defense: 4th (↓1), 11.3
SP+ Special Teams: 11th (↑13), 0.3

AP Poll: 18th (↓1), 447

Coaches’ Poll: 17th (↓1), 439

About Clint Derringer

@clint_derringer on Twitter U-M B.A. Sport Management & Communications ‘05 U-M M.S. Program & Project Management ‘18

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