Final Score: 27-24, Michigan by 3 over USC SP+ Projection: Michigan by 3.9 (-0.9) CD Projection: USC by 4 (+7)
FIVE FACTORS
GAME 4 RECAP vs. USC
To make a classic football game, both sides have to have a legit chance to win. USC played a whale of a game on the road to put themselves in position to win. Lincoln Riley vs. Wink Martindale was like Ali vs. Frazier. Unfortunately, the offense played the role of Achilles’ heel. The Wolverines only mustered 32 yards passing on 12 attempts. But, the offense was able to put 21 points on the board (defense scored 6) because they committed to their smash identity. One critical result here is buying more time for Kirk Campbell to figure out how to create more balance with scripted plays & high percentage throws. Kalel Mullings should get at least one week of Campbell’s salary. Mullings rushed 17 times for 159 yards and two touchdowns, including a 4th down, game-on-the-line smash that should go into Wolverines’ lore forever.
Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale had a proverbial gauntlet laid down after Texas romped over Michigan in the Big House. He had to simplify enough to let these college kids play fast, without too much thinking. At the same time, he had to keep enough variability to match wits with offensive wizard Lincoln Riley coming off a bye. This afternoon was a resoundingly successful proof of concept for the ol’ NFL coordinator. The Trojans started the third quarter with an impressive 75-yard touchdown drive. Outside of that drive, the wins for USC were more flashes in the pan. By the end, Miller Moss was seeing ghosts, and hearing footsteps when it mattered the most in he fourth quarter. Will Johnson cemented his big play legacy when he set a Michigan record with his third career pick-six, but left the game early for an unknown reason.
We now know that the Michigan kicker, Dominic Zvada, is human. He clunked a PAT low enough to get blocked. That missing pointt gave USC an opportunity to tie the game with a field goal at the end. However, his boy Tommy Doman stepped in and carried the kicking game. Doman averaged 47.9 yards per punt on seven punts. The first half field position advantage led directly to the Wolverines’ 14-3 half time lead.
Live during the game, I noted that Michigan was approximately 70/30 run plays and USC was 70/30 pass plays. This sparked my memory of Jim Harbaugh’s quip about George Patton getting it done on the ground, and Neil Armstrong getting it done through the air. While both sides left it all out there, the astronaut’s offense from California couldn’t outlast Patton’s barrage on the ground. Smash!
Michigan handled their business early, but still didn’t look sharp in the passing game. The Wolverines overcame 3 interceptions and a -2 turnover margin to defeat the Arkansas State Red Wolves 28-18.
NEXT UP: vs. USC: SP+ 17th, 16.0
PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 3.9, Michigan Win Probability 60%
The SP+ model is blind to the QB switch to Alex Orji. We shall see if the offense ticks up from 57th nationally with the added dimension to the run game. USC meanwhile is climbing as a defense, but with only two games of data to add atop their preseason ranking.
Michigan Offense (57th) vs. USC Defense (70th)
The switch to Orji as the starting quarterback will get the majority of media attention. But, the real test is how much continued improvement we see from the offensive line. LT Myles Hinton has been good, but nobody else up front has stood out for positive performance. At a minimum, this unit needs to clean up the mental mistakes. For the Wolverines to be successful, they need to be successful on standard downs, especially 1st & 10. Consistently putting 2nd & 5, or 3rd & 1 in front of Alex Orji will allow coordinator Kirk Campbell to utilize any page from the playbook that they’ve installed.
Michigan Defense (4th) vs. USC Offense (4th)
Very similarly to the Texas matchup, this is strength-on-strength. Lincoln Riley knows how to maximize his QB’s talent. Miller Moss is not a serious run threat, but they will look to pick on the linebackers with RPO’s, as well as attacking Jayaire Hill down the field. Wink Martindale showed that he can turn the dial down last week versus Arkansas State. Early in this game, we want to see Michigan hang back and force USC to hand he ball off into light boxes. The Wolverines’ defensive line should be able to win one-on-one matchups inside, allowing the linebackers to stay in passing lanes.
PREDICTION: Michigan needs their best performance of the season to beat the Trojans. There are a handful of 50/50 what-if matchups, and I think Michigan needs to win three or four of those coin flips. We need Orji to threaten the safeties with his legs (good blocking) and with his arm (stretching deep when they creep forward). We also need to move the chains consistently enough that USC is forced to drive 70+ yards on each of their possessions. Keep the game close, and look to wear the Trojans down in the 4th quarter.
More bad news for Michigan as we hear that tight end Coleston Loveland will be sidelined with a shoulder injury. This puts more pressure on Kirk Campbell to scheme up plays that will give Alex Orji a chance to hit an open receiver. When in doubt, pull the ball down and run! It just feels like there may be too many what-ifs for Michigan to overcome. Michigan 20 USC 24 (PRESEASON Michigan 27 USC 10)
On defense, the Wolverines will challenge to be the best unit in the country again in 2024. Junior tackles Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant will garner the most attention. Josiah Stewart and Derrick Moore will start on the edges, while cornerback Will Johnson returns to lead the secondary.
Michigan enters the 2024 season defending the 2023 National Championship, and as the three-time defending B1G Ten champions. However, the college football world is totally different with conference realignment expanding the B1G Ten to eighteen teams, and the CFP expanding to include twelve teams. The football program is also turning the page from the Harbaugh era into the Sherrone Moore era.
The new staff valued consistency on offense, hiring from within the program to fill coaching holes. On defense, every position coach is new to the program, but coordinator Wink Martindale was instrumental in designing the defensive scheme run by Jesse Minter in 2023. Finally, it’s August with a bright red target painted onto the back of the Wolverines, so we kick off the return of UMGoBlue.com By the Numbers analysis with this game-by-game preview of the 2024 Michigan Football season. In the By the Numbersarticles and podcasts we will compile, review, and summarize various metrics to look deeper into the football team’s performance while trying to provide a clearer picture of how the upcoming games may turn out.
The foundation for most of my analysis comes from the ESPN SP+ college football analytics model, created by Bill Connelly. While his system is meant to be predictive for making educated bets, studying the Five Factors is also useful for understanding what a team does, or needs to do, to win football games.
What is SP+
SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date..
When it comes to predicting the outcome of Michigan Football games, I’ve tracked my own record and that of the SP+ projections, both straight up and against the spread (ATS) since I started writing for UMGoBlue.com in 2018. I track the preseason predictions (locked in August), as well as the game week predictions.
Michigan’s 3rd ranked SP+ defense will likely carry the load, especially early in the season while a new starting QB and new offensive line take time to settle in. The 2024 season does not have the same slow ramp up that the 2023 season had, so the Wolverines will need to round into shape very quickly in September to manage one of the nation’s toughest schedules.
2024 Regular Season Schedule
vs. Fresno State: 63rd Overall, 46th Offense, 88th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 27.6
PREDICTION: The national title celebration will continue into August in Ann Arbor as Wolverine fans return to the stadium and check out the 2023 signage. The Fresno State Bulldogs are no pushover, though. The former home of Kalen Deboer has new leadership again after Jeff Tedford stepped away this offseason due to health concerns and Tim Skipper takes over. I expect the Wolverines to ride the huge blue wave of energy from the fans under the lights at the Big House and overwhelm the Bulldogs early. Michigan 31 Fresno St. 7, 1-0
vs. Texas: 5th Overall, 4th Offense, 12th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: Texas by 0.2
PREDICTION: The Texas Longhorns were right in the center of conference realignment frenzy when they joined the rival Sooners from Oklahoma and jumped from the Big 12 to the SEC. This is a program that is hungry coming off a CFP semifinal loss a year ago. While I have full confidence in Michigan’s defense to keep any game close, I think the difference is Texas’ experienced QB Quinn Ewers and returning 4 of 5 starters from a very effective offensive line. Early in the season, Michigan will still be ironing out too many wrinkles, and Texas will capitalize just enough to win in Ann Arbor. Michigan 14 Texas 20, 1-1
vs. Arkansas State: 93rd Overall, 65th Offense, 122nd Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 36.6
PREDICTION: While the Red Wolves may be contenders for a Sun Belt championship this season, they get a tough draw on the schedule here catching Michigan after a loss. The week of practice that focuses on correcting the inevitable mistakes that emerge against Texas will help propel the Michigan offense forward. On the flip side, Arkansas State will struggle to stop most teams, but could really get steamrolled with a wide talent margin. I expect to see one of the Wolverines’ best performances here, and they could really light up the scoreboard. Michigan 33 Arkansas St. 6, 2-1
vs. USC: 21st Overall, 5th Offense, 83rd Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 13.6
PREDICTION: The B1G Ten slate starts off with a banger as the USC Trojans come to Ann Arbor for a 3:30 kickoff. Miller Moss steps into huge shoes at quarterback, replacing 1st overall draft pick Caleb Williams. More importantly, D’Anton Lynn steps in as defensive coordinator, replacing Alex Grinch. In simple terms, I think the defense takes a moderate step forward, but the offense takes a larger step backward. The net result is an overrated team from Los Angeles. Michigan 27 USC 10, 3-1
vs. Minnesota: 47th Overall, 89th Offense, 22nd Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 23.3
PREDICTION: PJ Fleck is still searching for the formula he used to rack up 10-win seasons for the Gophers when he first arrived in Minneapolis. While the defense has been shored up, the offense still lacks consistency. In 2024 Fleck will turn to Max Hosmer, a transfer from New Hampshire who slings it all over. I’m skeptical that Minnesota will have it figured out on offense in early October. This could be a chance for a breakout game for the Wolverines’ pass rushers. Michigan 24 Minnesota 9, 4-1
PREDICTION: The rematch of last season’s CFP National Championship game will feature two very different teams. Former friend & trusted agent Jedd Fisch takes over the program after Kalen DeBoer moved to Tuscaloosa. The Huskies are also replacing nearly every starter from their high-powered offense from a year ago, just like Michigan. I am always wary of away games in tough environments, and Seattle definitely qualifies. It’s also the first road trip of the season, and a west coast swing to boot. I predict the Wolverines will have to find a way to battle and steal a victory in a game where they may not play their best. Michigan 21 Washington 20, 5-1
PREDICTION: Michigan returns from a mid-season bye week and hits the road again to visit Champagne and take on Bret Bielma’s Illini squad. Illinois returns a good chunk of their offensive production, but they need to improve in the trenches. I like their chances to take a step forward on both the offensive and defensive lines in 2024. But, this matchup doesn’t align very well for the Illini. They want to smash a defense up the middle, and that is the strength of the Wolverines’ D. This is probably another ugly game, but I expect Michigan to win the field position battle and to chalk up another W. Michigan 20 Illinois 7, 6-1
vs. Michigan State: 71st Overall, 121st Offense, 26th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 29.9
PREDICTION: Another program looking to turn the page into a new era is just up the road in East Lansing. The Spartans hired well when they snagged Jonathon Smith from Oregon State. The turnover in personnel will keep Michigan State on the wrong side of the ledger against the best teams. However, I expect them to surprise somebody at least once in 2024. The Wolverines will not be that team. Sparty still has the full attention of the players in Ann Arbor, and the Michigan faithful will be amped up to welcome the team home to the Big House. Tough break for State. Michigan 30 Michigan State 3, 7-1
vs. Oregon: 3rd Overall, 1st Offense, 15th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: Oregon by 1.5
PREDICTION: Oregon is a trendy pick to win a B1G Ten title in their first year in the conference. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel transferred in from Oklahoma and leads the SP+ top-ranked offense. While the schedule makers created a very tough slate for the Wolverines, they do get a small break hosting the Ducks in November. Oregon will come into the game having already played Ohio State at home, as well. I think that opportunity to scout the Ducks’ best shot will give the Wolverines’ defense just enough edge to slow down Oregon. Also, by the ninth game, we’ll start to see the Michigan offensive line really moving people up front. This game will plant U-M right back into the national title conversation. Michigan 24 Oregon 13, 8-1
PREDICTION: New head coach Curt Cignetti decided he wanted to kick down the doors on his entrance into the B1G Ten, calling out not only the rival Boilermakers but Michigan and Ohio State too. The Hoosiers’ roster has also been imported from James Madison University. Even if Indiana moves leaps and bounds forward, they are still not on the same level as the Wolverines from a talent perspective. That will show in this game as depth becomes a major factor this deep into the season. Michigan 28 Indiana 10, 9-1
vs. Northwestern: 75th Overall, 117th Offense, 29th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 30.3
PREDICTION: Michigan will come off the second bye week of the season and host the Northwestern Wildcats for Senior Day at the Big House. David Braun pulled a rabbit out of his hat in 2023, leading the ‘Cats to an 8-5 finish. Many pundits questioned whether they would win any games at all. I would be surprised to see the positivity extend into 2024, though. Northwestern will still struggle to move the ball against B1G Ten teams. And, by late November they could be sporting a very thin two-deep. The Wolverines will likely keep their best stuff on the shelf in this game with many eyeballs turning toward Columbus. Michigan 23 Northwestern 6, 10-1
PREDICTION: It’s a bit startling to see Ohio State head into a season with an offense ranked as low as 25th in SP+. The Buckeyes are perennially at the top of Bill Connelly’s ratings on offense. After pinning the blame for the 2023 loss on Kyle McCord, the program forced him out via transfer to Syracuse. In comes running QB Will Howard, and new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly to call plays. These two defensive units may very well be the best two in the country, so the team who minimizes mistakes on offense and special teams is going to win. If the Wolverines were at home, I would pick them to win, but right now I lean toward a Buckeye victory in the Shoe. Michigan 17 Ohio State 21, 10-2
3rd Place in B1G Ten CFP At-Large Selection – 8th seed
Senior running back Donovan Edwards looks to carry the torch passed on by JJ McCarthy and 9 other starters from the 2023 team. Edwards has scored some of the most iconic touchdowns in Michigan football history, but now it’s his turn to be the featured back.
