By the Numbers: Game 12 vs. Ohio State | By Fans...For Fans Since 1999 | UMGOBLUE.COM Michigan Wolverine Football & Basketball

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan was able to survive and advance in the annual pre-OSU trap game. The Wolverines held on to beat the Maryland Terrapins 31-24 after shifting into cruise control far too early.

NEXT UP: vs. Ohio State: SP+ 3rd, 27.8

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 6.1, Michigan Win Probability 64%

Michigan stayed firm atop the SP+ rankings where they’ve been going back to Week 5. But, the Wolverines regressed back to the pack during the Jim Harbaugh suspension. Ohio State remains 3rd overall as well. Surprisingly, the 1st ranked defense leads the Buckeyes SP+ rating strength, not the 19th ranked offense.

Michigan Offense (6th) vs. Ohio State Defense (1st)

This matchup embodies the strength-on-strength clash in this rivalry game. Ohio State clamped down on big plays in 2023 after explosives proved to be the achilles heel for coordinator Jim Knowles in 2022. I expect the Buckeyes to deploy a more structurally sound defensive approach in The Game this year. Keeping the Michigan ground attack under wraps will still be top priority, but I don’t think Ohio State believes they need to commit 9 or 10 players to the line of scrimmage to accomplish that. Michigan fans can expect a rushing attack that looks much more like 2021 (5-6 yards a pop) than the 2022 explosion.

In my eyes, Saturday’s two most critical performances take place up front where Ladarius Henderson expects to return at left tackle, and Karsen Barnhart looks to bounce back in pass protection at right tackle. Henderson & Barnhart will be the point of attack blockers on Michigan runs. Most importantly, they must keep JJ McCarthy clean against JT Tuimoloau and the Buckeyes’ pass rush. Ideally, JJ’s health is no longer a concern and we’ll see him escape the pocket to create down field opportunities. At the minimum, the Michigan running backs should serve as quick outlet valves if Ohio State is bringing pressure.

Michigan Defense (2nd) vs. Ohio State Offense (19th)

For the third consecutive year, the Wolverines’ defense will attempt to execute a game plan meant to minimize explosive pass plays. In 2021 & 2022, impacting quarterback CJ Stroud posed the primary challenge. Now the Buckeyes are led by Kyle McCord. McCord is a good passer, but not on the same level as Stroud. I expect Michigan to utilize extra safeties over the top of Heisman Trophy candidate Marvin Harrison Jr., while relying on the front four plus LB Mike Barrett to generate pressure. If the Wolverines successfully contain Harrison with extra defenders, the wild card will be Mike Sainristil and Josh Wallace against #2 receiver Emeka Egbuka.

Verbally, this season represents a new commitment to running the ball for Ohio State. TreVeyon Henderson and Chip Trayanum combine into a formidable challenge. However, the Buckeyes’ offensive line still falters when trying to get to their second level blocks. And, when Ohio State faces a high leverage situation, Ryan Day remains highly likely to turn away from his running backs and favor his wide receivers. Jesse Minter will keep his coverage guys back, daring Ryan Day to run the ball consistently and repeatedly. The most critical plays in the game will be 3rd down plays with 2-4 yards to go for Ohio State. The Buckeye coaching staff will tell you that they want to run the ball in those spots, but Minter and the rest of the Wolverine faithful all know these are the times to tighten up outside in coverage.

PREDICTION: The SP+ model would favor Michigan over Ohio State by 3.6 points on a neutral field, and Bill Connely’s system adds 2.5 points for home field advantage, resulting in a 6.1 point tilt toward the Wolverines. My preseason pick was Michigan by 6, and I am going to keep that same margin. The teams will trade blows back-and-forth for the first 50-75% of the game. Marvin Harrison Jr. and Blake Corum will each score early touchdowns. But, this game boils down to which players step up in the fourth quarter once each team adjusts to the opponent’s game plan. I think the Michigan defense will seal it late by pressuring McCord into a key mistake.
Michigan 34 Ohio State 28 (PRESEASON Michigan 39 Ohio State 33)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 11/21/23, 11-0

SP+ Overall: 1st (same), 31.4
- SP+ Offense: 6th (↑1), 38.5
- SP+ Defense: 2nd (↓1), 9.0
- SP+ Special Teams: 7th (↓1), 1.9
AP Poll: 3rd (↓1), 1440
Coaches’ Poll: 3rd (↓1), 1458
CFP Rank: 3rd (same)