Michigan 13 Ohio State 10 – Game 12 Recap

GAME 12 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 13-10, Michigan by 3 over Ohio State
SP+ Projection: Ohio State by 20.5 (+23.5)
CD Projection: Ohio State by 11 (+14)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 12 RECAP @ Ohio State

See?! I am not crazy! Michigan’s best version in 2024 is a ball control, time of possession, field position strategy! They just saved it for The Game and sacrificed at least 2-3 losses in the regular season to trap Ryan Day!

In all seriousness, this had to be the plan all along, especially once Michigan learned Colston Loveland was unavailable. Kalel Mullings carried the Wolverines on his back again, rushing 32 times for 116 yards and Michigan’s only touchdown. His greatest moment, however, came on a 3rd & 6 in the 4th quarter. Mullings broke a tackle at the line of scrimmage and bounced outside for a 27-yard gallup that ensured Michigan was in field goal range in a tied game.

For the fourth consecutive year, it’s a struggle to determine how much of Michigan’s defensive success is a maize-and-blue masterpiece, and how much is a scarlet-and-grey conundrum. Somehow, Wink Martindale was able to remove Jeremiah Smith from the menu in the 2nd half. Ryan Day was determined to prove the Buckeyes were tougher on the ground this year. Turns out he was wrong…again. Ohio State only mustered 77 rushing yards on 26 attempts, a pitiful 3.0 yard per rush.

After an atrocious 33-yard punt by Tommy Doman to start the day for special teams, Dominic Zvada cashed in a 54-yard field goal, and cooly nailed the 21-yard nail in the coffin with under a minute on the clock. Just like all the Wolverines, Doman had to show some toughness and bounce back. He uncorked a critical 68-yard punt and roll in the 2nd quarter, and finished with a respectable 47.3 yard average.

What a month for Sherrone Moore and the Michigan Wolverines. There seems to be some major changes related to personnel management and recruiting within the program. But other things remain constant. This Michigan team didn’t flinch in the moment, even when it was infuriatingly bleak. When all the chips were on the table, Ryan Day and his “National Title or Bust” Buckeyes were not tough enough to make the critical plays in November. Both programs now find themselves at very different crossroads, with Michigan riding the wave of four straight victories over Ohio State into 2025. SMASH!

Michigan 30 Ohio State 24 – Game 12 Recap

GAME 12 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 30-24, Michigan by 6 over Ohio State
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 6.1 (-0.1)
CD Projection: Michigan by 6 (!)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 12 RECAP vs. Ohio State

Michigan’s offense vs. Ohio State’s defense shifted more than any other matchup when compared to the past two seasons. The Wolverines finished with a 46% success rate for the game, and averaged 5.8 yards/play. The Buckeyes succeeded in reducing their explosive play exposure. But, in the 2nd half when the game was decided, Michigan rushed for 122 yards and 5.8 yards per rush. The Wolverines posted a 64% success rate in the 3rd quarter, and 50% in the 4th. JJ McCarthy chipped in a 16-20 passing performance for another 148 yards and a touchdown to Roman Wilson.

Defensively, the Wolverines battled back-and-forth with a star-studded offense from Ohio State. All-world wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. caught five balls for 118 yards and a touchdown, while Emeka Egbuka also found the end zone. However, even though the Buckeyes established a much clearer commitment to rushing the football, they could not top Michigan. Tradition dictates the winner of the rushing battle wins The Game when Ohio State and Michigan clash. The Wolverines triumphed 156-107 on the ground.

The final slice of Michigan’s complementary football masterpiece came from the kicking game. Tommy Doman averaged 52.0 yards per punt, and James Turner looked rock solid on three field goals from 50, 38, and 37 yards. Jake Thaw also deserves a shout out for catching Ohio State’s punts in the air, often in heavy traffic. Michigan gained nearly a point of EPA per possession with their field position advantage.

Sherrone Moore continues his career ascension in Ann Arbor. He flourished as the offensive line coach and led his unit to back-to-back Joe Moore awards as the best in the nation. He added play calling duty in 2022 and improved the offensive output by 4.1 points per game. Now he lives forever as THE guardian of victory for stepping in during Jim Harbaugh’s November suspension. Enjoy the rivalry win boys, back to work on a B1G Championship tomorrow. Onward!

By the Numbers: Game 12 vs. Ohio State

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan was able to survive and advance in the annual pre-OSU trap game.  The Wolverines held on to beat the Maryland Terrapins 31-24 after shifting into cruise control far too early.

NEXT UP: vs. Ohio State: SP+ 3rd, 27.8

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 6.1, Michigan Win Probability 64%

Michigan stayed firm atop the SP+ rankings where they’ve been going back to Week 5.  But, the Wolverines regressed back to the pack during the Jim Harbaugh suspension.  Ohio State remains 3rd overall as well.  Surprisingly, the 1st ranked defense leads the Buckeyes SP+ rating strength, not the 19th ranked offense.

Michigan Offense (6th) vs. Ohio State Defense (1st) 

This matchup embodies the strength-on-strength clash in this rivalry game.  Ohio State clamped down on big plays in 2023 after explosives proved to be the achilles heel for coordinator Jim Knowles in 2022.  I expect the Buckeyes to deploy a more structurally sound defensive approach in The Game this year.  Keeping the Michigan ground attack under wraps will still be top priority, but I don’t think Ohio State believes they need to commit 9 or 10 players to the line of scrimmage to accomplish that.  Michigan fans can expect a rushing attack that looks much more like 2021 (5-6 yards a pop) than the 2022 explosion.

In my eyes, Saturday’s two most critical performances take place up front where Ladarius Henderson expects to return at left tackle, and Karsen Barnhart looks to bounce back in pass protection at right tackle.  Henderson & Barnhart will be the point of attack blockers on Michigan runs.  Most importantly, they must keep JJ McCarthy clean against JT Tuimoloau and the Buckeyes’ pass rush.  Ideally, JJ’s health is no longer a concern and we’ll see him escape the pocket to create down field opportunities.  At the minimum, the Michigan running backs should serve as quick outlet valves if Ohio State is bringing pressure.  

Michigan Defense (2nd) vs. Ohio State Offense (19th)

For the third consecutive year, the Wolverines’ defense will attempt to execute a game plan meant to minimize explosive pass plays.  In 2021 & 2022, impacting quarterback CJ Stroud posed the primary challenge.  Now the Buckeyes are led by Kyle McCord.  McCord is a good passer, but not on the same level as Stroud.  I expect Michigan to utilize extra safeties over the top of Heisman Trophy candidate Marvin Harrison Jr., while relying on the front four plus LB Mike Barrett to generate pressure.  If the Wolverines successfully contain Harrison with extra defenders, the wild card will be Mike Sainristil and Josh Wallace against #2 receiver Emeka Egbuka.

Verbally, this season represents a new commitment to running the ball for Ohio State.  TreVeyon Henderson and Chip Trayanum combine into a formidable challenge.  However, the Buckeyes’ offensive line still falters when trying to get to their second level blocks.  And, when Ohio State faces a high leverage situation, Ryan Day remains highly likely to turn away from his running backs and favor his wide receivers.  Jesse Minter will keep his coverage guys back, daring Ryan Day to run the ball consistently and repeatedly.  The most critical plays in the game will be 3rd down plays with 2-4 yards to go for Ohio State.  The Buckeye coaching staff will tell you that they want to run the ball in those spots, but Minter and the rest of the Wolverine faithful all know these are the times to tighten up outside in coverage.

PREDICTION: The SP+ model would favor Michigan over Ohio State by 3.6 points on a neutral field, and Bill Connely’s system adds 2.5 points for home field advantage, resulting in a 6.1 point tilt toward the Wolverines.  My preseason pick was Michigan by 6, and I am going to keep that same margin.  The teams will trade blows back-and-forth for the first 50-75% of the game.  Marvin Harrison Jr. and Blake Corum will each score early touchdowns.  But, this game boils down to which players step up in the fourth quarter once each team adjusts to the opponent’s game plan.  I think the Michigan defense will seal it late by pressuring McCord into a key mistake.
Michigan 34 Ohio State 28 (PRESEASON Michigan 39 Ohio State 33)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 11/21/23, 11-0

  • SP+ Overall: 1st (same), 31.4
    • SP+ Offense: 6th (↑1), 38.5
    • SP+ Defense: 2nd (↓1), 9.0
    • SP+ Special Teams: 7th (↓1), 1.9
  • AP Poll: 3rd (↓1), 1440
  • Coaches’ Poll: 3rd (↓1), 1458
  • CFP Rank: 3rd (same)

M FOOTBALL 2015-112TH INCARNATION OF “THE GAME” PROVIDES DOWNER FOR THE WOLVERINES AS BUCKEYES OVERWHELM 13-42.

Cunningly disguised as THE Ohio State Football team, the Buckzillas blathered into the civilized confines of Ann Arbor and Michigan Stadium, along with their usual horde of protagonists, as they have in all the uneven years since 1918.

Vocal as always, many of the garishly bedecked crowd in Scarlet and Drab (oops, Grey), seemed to waft in on an aroma of spiritus fermenti. As always, all were in high spirits. While I wanted to add “At least before the game”, the Buckeyes had every right to remain that way after the game as well.

They won the day, as the Wolverines needed to run play action passing, but were minus a running game. Michigan also needed to protect Jake Ruddock, but failed miserably at times. Another ouch was the inability of the defense to stop the run or protect the red zone. Coupled with a no run offense, they could command no run defense. OSU piled up 369 net yards rushing for a 6.8 average per carry, and 5 TDs, as opposed to 57 net yards rushing by the Wolverines, and a lone TD. OSU’s RB Elliot had 30-carries for 214-yards, 2 TDs, and a 7.1 average per carry. Giving a D minus grade for Saturday’s rush defense would be grading this effort too high. All in all, it was the Wolverine’s worst outing, and resulted in their worst beating of the season.

[avantlink_ad merchant=”Fanatics” title=”Michigan Wolverines 468×60″][/avantlink_ad]

A SHORT COMMENTARY REGARDING THE HISTORY OF “THE GAME”: M and OSU first played in 1897, and the game has been an annual competition since 1918. Memorable moments have originated in each subsequent era.

The game caught the attention of the sporting world for a number of reasons. Hard hitting games usually displayed well played and coached football, often with possible Big Ten championships at stake, and sometimes high national ranking against high national ranking. Also, sometimes with undefeated records at stake as in 1993, 1995 and 1996, when the Wolverines ruined OSU perfection.

These games decided the Big Ten title 27 times, and so often on the biggest of stages. They feature huge stadiums, and consistent hard edged fan enthusiasm, and these games featured splendid Saturday afternoon spectacle, some elating wins, and some deflating losses. They also featured coaching antics and on field heroics.

Colorful characters like the uniquely talented and quirky OSU Coach Woody Hayes, and the equally volatile and dedicated Wolverine Coach Bo Schembechler added luster to scenes still remembered.

They engineered the so-called Ten Years War. In Bo’s era, nothing irked Bo more than the selection of Ohio State as the Rose Bowl Representative in 1973 after a 10-10 tie, in which Quarterback Dennis Franklin’s injury during the game was cited as the explanatory reason for naming Ohio State. It was not unnoticed by Michigan fans that MSU’s AD Smith had voted for Ohio State.

To really understate it, Coach Hayes had a tendency to over enthusiasm which he could not entirely control. For example, bopping a competitor player during a bowl game cost him his career, and should have. Another less heinous instance, with no consequences but energizing and entertaining Michigan Stadium fans, happened in 1972, in Michigan Stadium.

Woody did not appreciate the officials validating a Michigan interception in a close game. To illustrate his rage, he grabbed the chained yard markers and systematically destroyed them. By so doing he set the Michigan crowd’s enthusiasm afire, and the team sent Billie Taylor into the end zone, for a Wolverine TD and win.

While Woody was not always beloved by Wolverine fans (for example, he went for two in 1968 while leading M by almost 50 points, because he said, he couldn’t go for three). His coaching ability, if not always his demeanor, was always respected. It was tough to accomplish at times, but it never was any more fun to watch a coach lose than it was to watch the volatile Woody Wilson Hayes lose.

The eras since Bo’s remarkable and improbable 1969 win have spawned Heisman trophy winners on both sides. As you undoubtedly remember, the two notables that are most fondly remembered by the Michigan side now are Desmond Howard, who famously struck a striking Heisman pose in the end zone after a stunning long kick return that sealed the Buckeyes fate. Not to be out done another former Ohioan, Charles Woodson, sealed Ohio’s fate in much the same manner, by returning a punt.

These were the two most memorable Michigan moments in my memory, but other performances like Tim Biakabatuka’s over three hundred yard rushing tour de force against the S & G in 1995 shouldn’t be forgotten.

Also, there were other performances before my time, which still shimmer in an aura of greatness. Among them were Tom Harmon’s extraordinary performance in “the Game” in Columbus in the early forties.

Old 98 excelled at nearly all phases of the game, winning over a hostile crowd in Columbus to an audible demonstration of appreciation of his performance. Unexpectedly, he was presented with a great ovation, by some of the toughest critics in the world if you are Maize and Blue, the Buckeye home crowd.

A SHORT 2015 GAME COMMENTERY: Unfortunately last Saturday’s lack of ability to defend its home turf proved that the Wolverines are not yet a finished product in this, Coach Harbaugh’s first year at the helm. He always says there is more work to do and Saturday proved him right.

Last Saturday’s game won’t earn inclusion in any synopsis of M’s great games against OSU, because it truly wasn’t. Still, it must be said it was a hard fought battle on both sides.

The Wolverines punished themselves with foolish and costly penalties. In fact a first quarter roughing the kicker penalty provided OSU a fresh first down after the defense had held them deep, and had forced a Buckeye punt.

It was a bad coaching call, as the kick block failed. The M rusher did not fail to illegally bump the OSU punter, and the stalled Buckeyes were on their way.

Peppers fielding the punt and possibly running it back seems a better option as it could have put the Wolverines deep in OSU territory. Obviously that early gamble did not pay off.

Instead, this penalty was actually the turning point of the game as it advanced the Buckeyes to their 24, ruining the great field position provided by M’s punter Blake O’Neill. Via that gaff, the Bucks turned adversity into advantage as good teams will. The Bucks subsequently drove for their first TD after a 7 play, 94-yard drive in the first quarter.

A 66-yard gallop on that series by OSU’s RB E. Elliot took it to the M 10, also helping turn M’s fortunes the wrong way. Jerrod Wilson put him down at the ten, but red zone greatness was not a facet of this game for the Wolverines. OSU QB J.T Barrett ran it in for six, and the die was cast. The first quarter ended M-0. OSU-7. OSU only had 4 first downs to M’s six in the quarter, but momentum had shifted for good to the Bucks.

In the second quarter, M finally hit a field goal after a 14 play, 72-yard long drive. A false start hurt, and back to back incompletions to Amara Darboh helped cause the stall. There were two or three instances in this game where the usually sure handed Amara was hit in the hands, and dropped the pass.

OSU answered the Michigan FG with another TD.  J.T. Barrett rushed for 25-yards, and Braxton Miller rushed for 6 and 3-yards. J T. Barrett rushed for 16 and 7 to the 5, and Elliott broke the plane for 6 on two attempts to complete a 9-play 75-yard drive. M-3. OSU-14.

The hurry up offense bothered the Wolverine’s defensive play, they couldn’t defend the edge and sometimes the middle against the run. This drive was fairly indicative of the Wolverines problematic defense against the run all afternoon.

The Wolverines answered with their lone TD of the afternoon. This was the result of an 11-play 92-yard drive. A 4-yard Smith run and catch of 5-yards got it started. A pass to Peppers got 13. An OSU pass interference call enhanced it, as did a 24-yard reception by Smith.

Chesson, who has shown remarkable development and diversity this season, finished off the drive with a nifty 5-yard catch on a flag route into the front corner of the South end zone on a perfectly thrown Jake Rudock pass. The second quarter and half ended at M-10, OSU-14, and hope began to soar just a little, but fell flat as the second half was an absolute disaster for the Wolverines.

The Buckeyes received, and scored four second half TDs around a single FG by the Wolverines. OSU produced TD drives of 82-yards, 84-yards, 75-yards, and 47-yards as they overwhelmed the Wolverines. M could only answer with that single field goal. The final was M-13, OSU-42.

M could not protect the corners, tackle effectively, consistently pass protect QB Jake Rudock, or stay penalty free. The hurry up tired M’s thin defensive line.

Offensively, in the second half Jake Rudock took more viscous hits, one of which in the third quarter resulted in a Rudock fumble recovered by the Wolverine’s Mason Cole.

Later, in the fourth quarter, Jake Rudock injured a shoulder when sacked again by OSU’s Joey Bosa. His understudy, QB Wilton Speight replaced him, and was ineffective as by now the Bucks had their ears laid back.

I have heard some say the Wolverines quit. I don’t think that is true at all. Both sides were hitting. The Wolverines were simply overwhelmed by superior talent in this game. Talent which was trying to recover from their own worst performance of the season in losing their shot at the championship game against MSU.

THE FUTURE STILL BODES WELL: The fifteen bowl practices will assist the Wolverines. Last year they sat and watched the bowl games on TV like fans. They may not make a New Year’s Day Bowl, but it will be a decent bowl. Iowa, MSU, and OSU have earned spots above them, and might use up all of the New Year’s Day slots, but maybe not.

I do not believe that the 2016 recruiting class will be hampered by this game, and still believe that M will still gather a top ten or better class. This game just shows prospective running backs, linebackers, offensive and defensive lineman, that superior athletes will have a chance of playing early at Michigan.

Harbaugh and his staff will use freshman early, and will coach them up. The team needs speed at many positions including running back, and linebacker, and else where, and they need play makers every where.

Saturday’s loss was a nasty one, the worst of the season, a big fan disappointment. It proved that the talent gap with the best teams in the league is still a problem. Even so, the improvement over last season is obvious even if there is more work to be done. The coaching has been good overall.

Special teams are an enigma. They have often helped win this season, and have been superior in many respects, but in the two games that have counted most, special teams errors have helped roadblock wins.  Go figure.

Player development is illustrated by the progress of 5th year graduate QB Jake Rudock. His acquisition showed remarkable foresight on Harbaugh’s part, and his development over the course of the season has been remarkable.

When, in about the middle of the season, M switched to more passing than rushing because of necessity, Jake was totally up to the task to the surprise of many fans after a rough time connecting downfield at first.

Another QB has been added to Harbaugh’s list of successes. Hopefully Jake will get a chance in the bowl game, if his shoulder permits.

This coaching team has been mostly remarkable. Nine and three for the regular season shows a vast improvement.

M Football will only get better.

Go Blue!

Michigan vs Ohio State Football – Looking Back – 1986

The fifth and final installment of this year’s series looking back at the Michigan-Ohio State rivalry takes us to 1986. The national economy was booming, the Mets won an absolute classic of a World Series, President Ronald Reagan was dealing with the Iran-Contra controversy, and Microsoft Corporation issued its initial public offering of shares. In college football, Michigan quarterback Jim Harbaugh guaranteed that his team would beat archrival Ohio State. Guaranteed.

The history of sports guarantees has been checkered over the years. Joe Namath made his legend when the New York Jets fulfilled his guarantee of victory over the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III, but Patrick Ewing guaranteed that his New York Knicks would defeat numerous opponents, and his guarantees almost always fell flat on their face. So when Harbaugh guaranteed a Michigan victory in “The Game”, it grabbed sports headlines with the subtle attraction of a magnet. Harbaugh’s guarantee assured only one thing: Either his legend would be defined, or he would look like a fool.

As it turns out, he came very close to looking like a fool. Fortunately for Harbaugh and all the Maize & Blue faithful, the Michigan defense had his back, particularly when it counted most. With Ohio State driving in the final minutes, Buckeye quarterback Jim Karsatos threw a long pass for the end zone, and had a man open, but Michigan safety Ivan Hicks got his hand on the ball and knocked it away. Then, on a third down, Karsatos connected with Cris Carter, who headed for the first down marker, but was tackled a little more than two yards shy of the first down by Erik Campbell, who went on to became an excellent wide receivers coach. The yardage necessary was more than Ohio State coach Earle Bruce was comfortable with, and he sent out Matt Frantz to try a 45-yard field goal. Almost immediately, Frantz’s kick started to hook, and it veered wide of the goal posts, allowing Michigan to run out the clock for the victory.

Michigan finished the season with an 11-2 record. Oddly, the Wolverines had one regular season game left on the schedule after Ohio State, and they enjoyed their trip to sunny Honolulu, beating Hawaii 27-10. The Rose Bowl wound up being a disappointment, as the Wolverines fell to Arizona State, 22-15. Harbaugh was named to the All-America team, as were Garland Rivers and Jumbo Elliott, an offensive tackle who went on to a tremendous career in the NFL. Ohio State rebounded nicely to top Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl, 28-12.

This year, as we approach The Game, the atmosphere is more somber. An Ohio State student passed away during the school’s annual student tradition of jumping in Mirror Lake during the week leading up to the Michigan game. Please keep that student’s family and loved ones in your thoughts and prayers. We’d also like to thank the Ohio State and Michigan State football teams, who showed tremendous compassion and support for Chad Carr during his fight against cancer.

Thanks to CBS Sports and youtube poster Wolverine Historian. As always, I own nothing, nobody profits off this blog post, and everything here is done strictly for your enjoyment.