Michigan 13 Ohio State 10 – Game 12 Recap

GAME 12 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 13-10, Michigan by 3 over Ohio State
SP+ Projection: Ohio State by 20.5 (+23.5)
CD Projection: Ohio State by 11 (+14)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 12 RECAP @ Ohio State

See?! I am not crazy! Michigan’s best version in 2024 is a ball control, time of possession, field position strategy! They just saved it for The Game and sacrificed at least 2-3 losses in the regular season to trap Ryan Day!

In all seriousness, this had to be the plan all along, especially once Michigan learned Colston Loveland was unavailable. Kalel Mullings carried the Wolverines on his back again, rushing 32 times for 116 yards and Michigan’s only touchdown. His greatest moment, however, came on a 3rd & 6 in the 4th quarter. Mullings broke a tackle at the line of scrimmage and bounced outside for a 27-yard gallup that ensured Michigan was in field goal range in a tied game.

For the fourth consecutive year, it’s a struggle to determine how much of Michigan’s defensive success is a maize-and-blue masterpiece, and how much is a scarlet-and-grey conundrum. Somehow, Wink Martindale was able to remove Jeremiah Smith from the menu in the 2nd half. Ryan Day was determined to prove the Buckeyes were tougher on the ground this year. Turns out he was wrong…again. Ohio State only mustered 77 rushing yards on 26 attempts, a pitiful 3.0 yard per rush.

After an atrocious 33-yard punt by Tommy Doman to start the day for special teams, Dominic Zvada cashed in a 54-yard field goal, and cooly nailed the 21-yard nail in the coffin with under a minute on the clock. Just like all the Wolverines, Doman had to show some toughness and bounce back. He uncorked a critical 68-yard punt and roll in the 2nd quarter, and finished with a respectable 47.3 yard average.

What a month for Sherrone Moore and the Michigan Wolverines. There seems to be some major changes related to personnel management and recruiting within the program. But other things remain constant. This Michigan team didn’t flinch in the moment, even when it was infuriatingly bleak. When all the chips were on the table, Ryan Day and his “National Title or Bust” Buckeyes were not tough enough to make the critical plays in November. Both programs now find themselves at very different crossroads, with Michigan riding the wave of four straight victories over Ohio State into 2025. SMASH!

Michigan 30 Ohio State 24 – Game 12 Recap

GAME 12 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 30-24, Michigan by 6 over Ohio State
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 6.1 (-0.1)
CD Projection: Michigan by 6 (!)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 12 RECAP vs. Ohio State

Michigan’s offense vs. Ohio State’s defense shifted more than any other matchup when compared to the past two seasons. The Wolverines finished with a 46% success rate for the game, and averaged 5.8 yards/play. The Buckeyes succeeded in reducing their explosive play exposure. But, in the 2nd half when the game was decided, Michigan rushed for 122 yards and 5.8 yards per rush. The Wolverines posted a 64% success rate in the 3rd quarter, and 50% in the 4th. JJ McCarthy chipped in a 16-20 passing performance for another 148 yards and a touchdown to Roman Wilson.

Defensively, the Wolverines battled back-and-forth with a star-studded offense from Ohio State. All-world wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. caught five balls for 118 yards and a touchdown, while Emeka Egbuka also found the end zone. However, even though the Buckeyes established a much clearer commitment to rushing the football, they could not top Michigan. Tradition dictates the winner of the rushing battle wins The Game when Ohio State and Michigan clash. The Wolverines triumphed 156-107 on the ground.

The final slice of Michigan’s complementary football masterpiece came from the kicking game. Tommy Doman averaged 52.0 yards per punt, and James Turner looked rock solid on three field goals from 50, 38, and 37 yards. Jake Thaw also deserves a shout out for catching Ohio State’s punts in the air, often in heavy traffic. Michigan gained nearly a point of EPA per possession with their field position advantage.

Sherrone Moore continues his career ascension in Ann Arbor. He flourished as the offensive line coach and led his unit to back-to-back Joe Moore awards as the best in the nation. He added play calling duty in 2022 and improved the offensive output by 4.1 points per game. Now he lives forever as THE guardian of victory for stepping in during Jim Harbaugh’s November suspension. Enjoy the rivalry win boys, back to work on a B1G Championship tomorrow. Onward!

By the Numbers: Game 12 vs. Ohio State

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan was able to survive and advance in the annual pre-OSU trap game.  The Wolverines held on to beat the Maryland Terrapins 31-24 after shifting into cruise control far too early.

NEXT UP: vs. Ohio State: SP+ 3rd, 27.8

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 6.1, Michigan Win Probability 64%

Michigan stayed firm atop the SP+ rankings where they’ve been going back to Week 5.  But, the Wolverines regressed back to the pack during the Jim Harbaugh suspension.  Ohio State remains 3rd overall as well.  Surprisingly, the 1st ranked defense leads the Buckeyes SP+ rating strength, not the 19th ranked offense.

Michigan Offense (6th) vs. Ohio State Defense (1st) 

This matchup embodies the strength-on-strength clash in this rivalry game.  Ohio State clamped down on big plays in 2023 after explosives proved to be the achilles heel for coordinator Jim Knowles in 2022.  I expect the Buckeyes to deploy a more structurally sound defensive approach in The Game this year.  Keeping the Michigan ground attack under wraps will still be top priority, but I don’t think Ohio State believes they need to commit 9 or 10 players to the line of scrimmage to accomplish that.  Michigan fans can expect a rushing attack that looks much more like 2021 (5-6 yards a pop) than the 2022 explosion.

In my eyes, Saturday’s two most critical performances take place up front where Ladarius Henderson expects to return at left tackle, and Karsen Barnhart looks to bounce back in pass protection at right tackle.  Henderson & Barnhart will be the point of attack blockers on Michigan runs.  Most importantly, they must keep JJ McCarthy clean against JT Tuimoloau and the Buckeyes’ pass rush.  Ideally, JJ’s health is no longer a concern and we’ll see him escape the pocket to create down field opportunities.  At the minimum, the Michigan running backs should serve as quick outlet valves if Ohio State is bringing pressure.  

Michigan Defense (2nd) vs. Ohio State Offense (19th)

For the third consecutive year, the Wolverines’ defense will attempt to execute a game plan meant to minimize explosive pass plays.  In 2021 & 2022, impacting quarterback CJ Stroud posed the primary challenge.  Now the Buckeyes are led by Kyle McCord.  McCord is a good passer, but not on the same level as Stroud.  I expect Michigan to utilize extra safeties over the top of Heisman Trophy candidate Marvin Harrison Jr., while relying on the front four plus LB Mike Barrett to generate pressure.  If the Wolverines successfully contain Harrison with extra defenders, the wild card will be Mike Sainristil and Josh Wallace against #2 receiver Emeka Egbuka.

Verbally, this season represents a new commitment to running the ball for Ohio State.  TreVeyon Henderson and Chip Trayanum combine into a formidable challenge.  However, the Buckeyes’ offensive line still falters when trying to get to their second level blocks.  And, when Ohio State faces a high leverage situation, Ryan Day remains highly likely to turn away from his running backs and favor his wide receivers.  Jesse Minter will keep his coverage guys back, daring Ryan Day to run the ball consistently and repeatedly.  The most critical plays in the game will be 3rd down plays with 2-4 yards to go for Ohio State.  The Buckeye coaching staff will tell you that they want to run the ball in those spots, but Minter and the rest of the Wolverine faithful all know these are the times to tighten up outside in coverage.

PREDICTION: The SP+ model would favor Michigan over Ohio State by 3.6 points on a neutral field, and Bill Connely’s system adds 2.5 points for home field advantage, resulting in a 6.1 point tilt toward the Wolverines.  My preseason pick was Michigan by 6, and I am going to keep that same margin.  The teams will trade blows back-and-forth for the first 50-75% of the game.  Marvin Harrison Jr. and Blake Corum will each score early touchdowns.  But, this game boils down to which players step up in the fourth quarter once each team adjusts to the opponent’s game plan.  I think the Michigan defense will seal it late by pressuring McCord into a key mistake.
Michigan 34 Ohio State 28 (PRESEASON Michigan 39 Ohio State 33)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 11/21/23, 11-0

  • SP+ Overall: 1st (same), 31.4
    • SP+ Offense: 6th (↑1), 38.5
    • SP+ Defense: 2nd (↓1), 9.0
    • SP+ Special Teams: 7th (↓1), 1.9
  • AP Poll: 3rd (↓1), 1440
  • Coaches’ Poll: 3rd (↓1), 1458
  • CFP Rank: 3rd (same)

Michigan 27 Ohio State 56 – Week 14 Recap

WEEK 14 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 56-27, Ohio State by 29 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Ohio State by 11.0 (-18.0)
CD Projection: Michigan by 3 (-32)

FIVE FACTORS

Week 14 Five Factors box score

WEEK 14 RECAP vs. Ohio State

This became another version of The Game that looked a lot like Michigan-Ohio State games of this generation.  The Wolverines came out strong and scored on their first drive. They stood toe-to-toe through the first quarter at 14-13.  But, as the 2nd quarter and 3rd quarter wore on, Ohio State continued to execute and make big plays. Michigan ran out of steam and looked hapless as the Buckeyes pulled away.  

The offensive game plan provided a solid foundation for Michigan on the day.  However, the Buckeyes’ #1 defense gave the Wolverines a dose of their own medicine by choking them out after halftime.  The Wolverines could only muster 111 total yards against the smothering OSU defense in the 3rd and 4th quarters combined.  Plays were available to be made, especially in the 3rd quarter, but too many of Shea Patterson’s passes hit the wide receivers and then hit the turf.  As the clock turned to the 4th quarter, Michigan had completed just one pass in the 3rd frame. While Michigan’s 39% success rate is only slightly below average, looking at it by quarter is more telling: 53% (1st) 47% (2nd) 29% (3rd) 30% (4th).

While Michigan sputtered in the second half, Ohio State kept rolling.  The Buckeyes scored 14 points in each quarter by staying true to their identity.  JK Dobbins was explosive running the ball, and Justin Fields repeatedly hit deep shots through the air.  OSU matched Michigan’s hot start with a 57% success rate and 8.4 yards per play in the 1st quarter. Unlike the Wolverines offense, Ryan Day and his staff had the next round of answers for their opponents’ in game adjustments.  The Buckeyes’ 7.5 yards per play will likely send Jim Harbaugh’s staff back to the drawing board. That is the most Michigan allowed per play all season, including the early season blow out in Madison (6.9 YPP).

This puts the final stamp onto a frustrating season for Jim Harbaugh and the Michigan Wolverines football program.  With the experience and talent returning from 2018, this team had their eyes set on much loftier goals. The goals are the correct ones.  To achieve those championship goals, this program needs to execute in big games. There is nothing to do at this point but get back to work.

By the Numbers: Week 14 vs. Ohio State

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan finished up the road portion of their regular season schedule with an impressive 39-14 disassembly of the Indiana Hoosiers in Bloomington.

NEXT UP: vs. Ohio State: 1st, 36.2

PREGAME SP+: Ohio State by 11.0, Michigan Win Probability 26%
The Buckeyes’ SP+ rating score (36.2) is 59% higher than #10 Michigan’s (22.7).  On the other hand, Michigan has beaten the SP+ projected margin in 8 consecutive games.  The Wolverines have outperformed the projected margin by an average of 14.5 points since Week 4 @ Wisconsin, and by an average of 21.4 since Week 8 @ Penn State.

Michigan Offense (26th) vs. Ohio State Defense (1st) 
With just under 5:00 remaining in the 3rd quarter, Ohio State’s Sevyn Banks returned a blocked punt for a touchdown to increase the 2018 Buckeyes’ lead over Michigan to 15 points 34-19.  This is the moment the wind left the sails for the Wolverines and for the fan base. With 19+ minutes remaining in game time, I did not believe the Michigan offense would be able to change gears to the hurry-up passing attack necessary to come from behind.  That need to be able to change gears on offense, I believe, led to the January 10th hiring of Josh Gattis as offensive coordinator. The early season transition costs were steeper than I predicted, and a Big Ten Championship berth is not possible. However, those transition costs were absorbed to buy the chance for success in this game vs. Ohio State.  In that regard, Gattis and Jim Harbaugh have this unit peaking at the right time with added flexibility to exploit scoring opportunities against the Buckeyes.

Michigan Defense (5th) vs. Ohio State Offense (5th)
Like Harbaugh and Gattis, Don Brown and his staff designed a sharp transition triggered by the 2018 Ohio State game.  The defensive evolution also came with significant cost. Wisconsin exploited major mistakes in the run game in Week 4, and Penn State did so through the air in Week 8.  But, as October turned into November the Michigan defense re-emerged as a top-tier unit. The Wolverines drowned Notre Dame in a first-half rain storm and the Irish could only muster 180 total yards.  Indiana’s passing attack leads the Big Ten in 2019, but barely crept over 200 yards passing last week versus Michigan. Don Brown does not have to be perfect in this game, but he will have to utilize every tool in his belt to bottle up JK Dobbins and Justin Fields on standard downs.  If Michigan can force the Buckeyes into passing downs (2nd & 8+ or 3rd/4th & 5+), the Wolverines’ speed personnel can attack Ohio State from all angles.

PREDICTION: The Wolverines and Buckeyes share 3 SP+ top-25 opponents: Wisconsin, Penn State, and Indiana.  Michigan’s resume also includes victories over 2 more: Iowa and Notre Dame. I believe this particular version of The Game sets up much more evenly than most analysts.  The Wolverines are averaging 26.8 points in 5 games against current SP+ top-25 defenses. The 4 top-25 offenses have scored an average of 22.8 points against Michigan’s defense.  Ohio State is better than those other teams, but this isn’t the same Michigan team either.
Michigan 30 Ohio State 27  (PRESEASON Michigan 37 Ohio State 33)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/26/19), 9-2

  • SP+ Overall: 10th (same), 22.7
    • SP+ Offense: 26th (↑8), 35.0
    • SP+ Defense: 5th (same), 12.7
    • SP+ Special Teams 52nd (↓3) 0.3
  • CFP Rank: 13th (same)
  • AP Poll: 10th (↑2), 913
  • Coaches’ Poll: 11th (↑1), 893
Week 14 Resume vs. Ohio State