By the Numbers: Game 3 vs. Arkansas State | By Fans...For Fans Since 1999 | UMGOBLUE.COM Michigan Wolverine Football & Basketball

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan was outclassed by Texas in the Big House, and scored late to post a 31-12 score that looks better than the game felt. Davis Warren threw two interceptions, and the Wolverines’ defense showed they are human.

NEXT UP: vs. Ark. St.: SP+ 99th, -9.4

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 28.9, Michigan Win Probability 96%

While the Wolverines were thoroughly outplayed last weekend by the Texas Longhorns, the SP+ model did not shift much. Michigan drops one spot to 13th overall. The even wilder quirk of the model is that Texas’ unit rankings each improved, but overall the Longhorns also dropped one spot to #4. Arkansas State is in alignment with average G5 teams.

Michigan Offense (67th) vs. Ark. St. Defense (124th)

This week is potentially a now-or-never moment for Michign’s offense. The Red Wolves bring a bottom feeder defensive unit to Ann Arbor. We can use any number of traditional stats or advanced stats to measure the offense this week, but I just want to see Michigan move the line of scrimmage at the snap. Arkansas State is giving up over 140 yards rushing per game so far versus Central Arkansas and Tulsa. This is a big week for first year Offensive Line Coach Grant Newsome. Michigan must re-establish their identity as a smash offense. Any of the quarterbacks on the roster require an efficient run game to open up explosive plays in the air, or even using Oriji’s legs for chunk yardage gains. Priority #1 for Michigan on Saturday has to be clean execution up front on offense.

Michigan Defense (3rd) vs. Ark. St. Offense (69th)

Maybe it’s unfair to keep comparing the 2024 Michigan Football team to the 2023 team that won the national title. But, if the Wolverines are going to maintain the program standard under first-year head coach Sherrone Moore, this defense will have to be just as good as last year’s unit. The major challenge to accomplishing that objective is the 2024 depth being much thinner this season. The Wolverines can no longer rely on a dominant performance from the 1st and 2nd units interchangeably. So, to have success remotely comparable to last year’s defense, Wink Martindale will have to find a way to get off the field when they have the chance. Hopefully, the offense will continue to evolve and improve enough to help rest the 1st team defense so they are fresh for the key moments late in games.

Arkansas State is almost exactly average nationally as an offensive unit. They are averaging 426 total yards per game so far against a couple low-level opponents. Quarterback Jaylen Raynor will be looking to push the ball down the field and challenge Michigan’s DBs who aren’t named Will Johnson. Raynor is also the leading rusher for the Red Wolves through two weeks. The Wolverines will definitely be rotating many players into this game as they try to shore up their depth. If they can consistently get to Raynor and hit him, they will have some chances to create a few turnovers in this game.

PREDICTION: This should be the last week where we enter the game with major question marks about how Michigan will manage personnel. If Alex Orji is getting more snaps, especially consecutively, then they see his ability as critical to supporting the run game. When Davis Warren and/or Jack Tuttle is at quarterback, the Wolverines are stating they think the run game will continue to improve without adding the QB run plays. Either way, the key players are on the offensive line. I am especially looking to see how Newsome is rotating players at right tackle.

The Wolverines have a major talent advantage in this game, and expectations should match that edge. Behind the scenes, we really need to evaluate how this group of leaders (both players & coaches) respond to being punched in the mouth. If Michigan comes out hungry, looking to prove themselves all over again, then we can all move forward with more confidence into B1G Ten play. I expect to see better balance and complementary football, but the offense will still be showing some growing pains.
Michigan 27 Ark. St. 6 (PRESEASON Michigan 33 Ark. St. 6)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/08/24, 1-1

SP+ Overall: 13th (↓1), 16.9

SP+ Offense: 67th (↓11), 27.7
SP+ Defense: 3rd (same), 10.9
SP+ Special Teams: 24th (↓16), 0.2

AP Poll: 17th (↓7), 503
Coaches’ Poll: 16th (↓7), 501
CFP Rank: N/A