GAME 3 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS
Final Score: 28-18, Michigan by 10 over Arkansas State
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 28.9 (-18.9)
CD Projection: Michigan by 21 (-11)
FIVE FACTORS
GAME 3 RECAP vs. Arkansas State
The coaching staff for the Wolverines committed to returning to their run first identity, and it paid off. Michigan finished with 301 yards rushing on the day. However, there was still enough sloppiness up front to give some of the doubters oxygen. The pass protection was still a major issue, and Davis Warren let it affect him in the pocket. Warren was pulled after throwing his third interception of the day. Alex Orji entered and led a scoring drive, but we still haven’ seen him lead an efficient passing effort yet. The biggest blow for Michigan was an apparent shoulder injury suffered by Coleston Loveland, the All-American tight end.
The defense spent a majority of his game looking as dominant as we’ve come to expect. Arkansas State could only muser 280 total yards for the game. Both touchdowns came in the 4th quarter while Michigan’s 28-3 lead would define that period as garbage time. However, there was also sloppiness to worry about from the D. Most critically, the penalties after the whistle must stop. Two drives were saved for the Red Wolves on absolutely avoidable penalties.
On special teams, we didn’t get a chance to deploy our most dangerous weapon, placekicker Dominic Zvada. I am sure he was looking for an opportunity to score against his former team, but no opportunity presented itself. Returns were muted all day by mostly fair catch signals. Punter Tommy Doman still has me a little worried. His three punts today averaged 39.0 yards. But, we’ve seen multiple punts this year of less than 30 yards, including a 29-yarder in the 4th quarter of this game.
We wanted to see a come-to-Jesus moment, but this game just underwhelmed those expectations. Offensively, I think we’ll get to see what Alex Orji is capable of. He certainly adds another explosive threat to the mix, and that will be a big boost if Loveland’s injury is serious. Defensively, they look closer to a finished product, but there is another major challenge looming when USC visits next weekend.
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