Tag: Recap

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Michigan 13 Ohio State 10 – Game 12 Recap

GAME 12 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 13-10, Michigan by 3 over Ohio State
SP+ Projection: Ohio State by 20.5 (+23.5)
CD Projection: Ohio State by 11 (+14)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 12 RECAP @ Ohio State

See?! I am not crazy! Michigan’s best version in 2024 is a ball control, time of possession, field position strategy! They just saved it for The Game and sacrificed at least 2-3 losses in the regular season to trap Ryan Day!

In all seriousness, this had to be the plan all along, especially once Michigan learned Colston Loveland was unavailable. Kalel Mullings carried the Wolverines on his back again, rushing 32 times for 116 yards and Michigan’s only touchdown. His greatest moment, however, came on a 3rd & 6 in the 4th quarter. Mullings broke a tackle at the line of scrimmage and bounced outside for a 27-yard gallup that ensured Michigan was in field goal range in a tied game.

For the fourth consecutive year, it’s a struggle to determine how much of Michigan’s defensive success is a maize-and-blue masterpiece, and how much is a scarlet-and-grey conundrum. Somehow, Wink Martindale was able to remove Jeremiah Smith from the menu in the 2nd half. Ryan Day was determined to prove the Buckeyes were tougher on the ground this year. Turns out he was wrong…again. Ohio State only mustered 77 rushing yards on 26 attempts, a pitiful 3.0 yard per rush.

After an atrocious 33-yard punt by Tommy Doman to start the day for special teams, Dominic Zvada cashed in a 54-yard field goal, and cooly nailed the 21-yard nail in the coffin with under a minute on the clock. Just like all the Wolverines, Doman had to show some toughness and bounce back. He uncorked a critical 68-yard punt and roll in the 2nd quarter, and finished with a respectable 47.3 yard average.

What a month for Sherrone Moore and the Michigan Wolverines. There seems to be some major changes related to personnel management and recruiting within the program. But other things remain constant. This Michigan team didn’t flinch in the moment, even when it was infuriatingly bleak. When all the chips were on the table, Ryan Day and his “National Title or Bust” Buckeyes were not tough enough to make the critical plays in November. Both programs now find themselves at very different crossroads, with Michigan riding the wave of four straight victories over Ohio State into 2025. SMASH!

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Michigan 50 Northwestern 6 – Game 11 Recap

GAME 11 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 50-6, Michigan by 44 over Northwestern
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 15.2 (+28.8)
CD Projection: Michigan by 11 (+33)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 11 RECAP vs. Northwestern

What an explosion from the offense! It is a much needed sigh of relief for the players and the staff to see a solid game plan get executed well for four full quarters. The Wolverines were led by their best offensive player, Kalel Mullings, with three touchdowns on the ground. Davis Warren was 26-for-36 for 195 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Most importantly, 11 different players were targeted. Kirk Campbell was able to diversify, and it paid dividends immediately. It’s also poetic that both Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards scored touchdowns on their final carry in the Big House, a well-deserved honor bestowed upon two great Michigan Men!

The Wildcats were unable to block the Michigan front, and that was the end of that. With sacks removed, Northwestern only mustered 45 rushing yards, with most of those coming during garbage time in the 4th quarter. For much of the game, they had negative yards rushing. Michigan’s coverage did allow a few explosive plays, especially in the middle of the field in the second half. But, in another positive sign of growth, they adjusted and eventually collected a 2nd interception on a 4th down pass. Josiah Stewart had two sacks, and Kenneth Grant added another.

Dominic Zvada was excellent on all his kicks. He is a major weapon for the offense because he can hit from long range in cold weather. Tommy Doman only had one decent 48-yard punt, but Michigan allowed a good return to cut the net to 21 yards. Tyler Morris did a much better job catching the punts in the air after an early roller pinned Michigan back at their own 3 yard line.

I am very satisfied that Michigan had their best performance of the season in their final game in the Big House. The crowd brought a surprisingly high level of energy, and stuck around well into Garbage Time. We all deserved to celebrate being together in Ann Arbor one last time in 2024, and this team deserved to end the home season on a high note. Next up: a battle with the Buckeyes for Ryan Day’s job. SMASH!

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Michigan 17 Oregon 38 – Game 9 Recap

GAME 9 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 17-38, Oregon by 21 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Oregon by 12.5 (-8.5)
CD Projection: Oregon by 11 (-10)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 9 RECAP vs. Oregon

This offensive unit is remarkably consistent, but not necessarily in a great way. In almost every game, when I come back to the stats for the recap, the offense has put up between 260 and 290 yards of total offense. They show flashes of competence, but can’t string good plays together because of big misses on the offensive line, or turnovers. Today it was the offensive line. The Wolverines only managed 3.8 yards per rush attempt, and a 25% success rate on called run plays. That just won’t get it done for a team with a SMASH identity.

The biggest problem for Michigan on defense today came out in the injury report. Not only were the Wolverines missing All American cornerback Will Johnson, but also up and coming cornerback Jayaire Hill. That made for a really tough match up against an Oregon Ducks’ offense who wants to get the ball to fast playmakers on the edge, and challenge the DBs to tackle. In an alternate universe where Michigan pulls an upset, they would have forced multiple turnovers, or at least forced more than 1 FG attempt on scoring opportunities. That’s a really negative outlook, but that doesn’t match the guts the shorthanded defense showed. The defense gave Michigan a chance to climb back into the game in the 4th quarter, but they just couldn’t execute in the biggest moments.

The special teams units performed just fine today. There were no major mistakes, and they created the game’s only turnover. That big swing play led to Michigan’s first touchdown on a 28-yard field. Tommy Doman notably bounced back. Each of his punts were 45+ yards of carry, or were downed inside the 15 yard line.

I am a die hard fan, so the theme of the 2024 season is dying hard. I see a lot of small things that I am happy about, and I’m for sure proud that this team fights to the final whistle. But, I am not a Pollyanna either. Coming off a National Title, I expected this team to be pushing for a B1G Championship Game berth. Now, we’re going to have to settle for a fight for bowl eligibility and extended practices into December. This team will have a chance in every game, even the biggest game at the end of the season though, so don’t tune out completely. Go BLUE!

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Michigan 27 Minnesota 24 – Game 5 Recap

GAME 5 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 27-24, Michigan by 3 over Minnesota
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 12.0 (-9.0)
CD Projection: Michigan by 15 (-12)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 5 RECAP vs. Minnesota

Michigan offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell answered the bell. This game plan was solid, and creative. We saw personnel adjustments that better utilized the Wolverines’ talent, even with Semaj Morgan sidelined. Unfortunately, Michigan is still one or two mistakes away from efficient execution. Kalel Mullings cashed in on a long run, and a short field to score two first quarter touchdowns. A blocked punt led to a 3rd score and a 21-3 halftime lead. The yardage told a different story, though. The Gophers outgained Michigan 130-107 in the first half, and 166-134 in the second half. Coleston Loveland still looks less than 100%, and now Myles Hinton adds another big injury concern at left tackle.

While it was clearly a story of two halves for Michigan overall, the defense was a little different. The Wolverines looked dominant in the 1st and 3rd quarters, but could not get the big stops necessary in the 2nd and 4th quarters. Linebacker Ernest Hausmann led the effort with 9 total tackles, and Mason Graham led with 2 tackles for loss. Maybe the highlight of the game was an acrobatic interception by Jayaire Hill on a deep bomb along the sideline. Hill was in great position, got his head around to find the ball, made the pick with his hands and managed to toe tap in bounds.

Placekicker Dominic Zvada reentered the scoring sheet with two field goals, and provided the eventual game winning points. Tommy Doman averaged nearly 47 yards per punt, but a first half touchback, and a big 60-yard return in the second half killed the net effect. Michigan averaged just 26.4 net yards per punt, and lost a significant field position advantage in the second half.

Right now Michigan Football feels like a boxer who has been stunned, and just needs to hang in there until the bell. The injuries are piling up, and it seems like most other teams have had their first bye week at this point. The Wolverines will need to get back to work right away to prep for their first road trip out west to Seattle next week. Then they will feel the relief of some rest during a bye week. The Michigan staff needs to tighten up their execution to ride their complementary football style to another victory before the break. Smash!

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Michigan 27 USC 24 – Game 4 Recap

GAME 4 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 27-24, Michigan by 3 over USC
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 3.9 (-0.9)
CD Projection: USC by 4 (+7)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 4 RECAP vs. USC

To make a classic football game, both sides have to have a legit chance to win. USC played a whale of a game on the road to put themselves in position to win. Lincoln Riley vs. Wink Martindale was like Ali vs. Frazier. Unfortunately, the offense played the role of Achilles’ heel. The Wolverines only mustered 32 yards passing on 12 attempts. But, the offense was able to put 21 points on the board (defense scored 6) because they committed to their smash identity. One critical result here is buying more time for Kirk Campbell to figure out how to create more balance with scripted plays & high percentage throws. Kalel Mullings should get at least one week of Campbell’s salary. Mullings rushed 17 times for 159 yards and two touchdowns, including a 4th down, game-on-the-line smash that should go into Wolverines’ lore forever.

Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale had a proverbial gauntlet laid down after Texas romped over Michigan in the Big House. He had to simplify enough to let these college kids play fast, without too much thinking. At the same time, he had to keep enough variability to match wits with offensive wizard Lincoln Riley coming off a bye. This afternoon was a resoundingly successful proof of concept for the ol’ NFL coordinator. The Trojans started the third quarter with an impressive 75-yard touchdown drive. Outside of that drive, the wins for USC were more flashes in the pan. By the end, Miller Moss was seeing ghosts, and hearing footsteps when it mattered the most in he fourth quarter. Will Johnson cemented his big play legacy when he set a Michigan record with his third career pick-six, but left the game early for an unknown reason.

We now know that the Michigan kicker, Dominic Zvada, is human. He clunked a PAT low enough to get blocked. That missing pointt gave USC an opportunity to tie the game with a field goal at the end. However, his boy Tommy Doman stepped in and carried the kicking game. Doman averaged 47.9 yards per punt on seven punts. The first half field position advantage led directly to the Wolverines’ 14-3 half time lead.

Live during the game, I noted that Michigan was approximately 70/30 run plays and USC was 70/30 pass plays. This sparked my memory of Jim Harbaugh’s quip about George Patton getting it done on the ground, and Neil Armstrong getting it done through the air. While both sides left it all out there, the astronaut’s offense from California couldn’t outlast Patton’s barrage on the ground. Smash!