Tag: Arkansas State

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Michigan 28 Arkansas State 18 – Game 3 Recap

GAME 3 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 28-18, Michigan by 10 over Arkansas State
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 28.9 (-18.9)
CD Projection: Michigan by 21 (-11)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 3 RECAP vs. Arkansas State

The coaching staff for the Wolverines committed to returning to their run first identity, and it paid off. Michigan finished with 301 yards rushing on the day. However, there was still enough sloppiness up front to give some of the doubters oxygen. The pass protection was still a major issue, and Davis Warren let it affect him in the pocket. Warren was pulled after throwing his third interception of the day. Alex Orji entered and led a scoring drive, but we still haven’ seen him lead an efficient passing effort yet. The biggest blow for Michigan was an apparent shoulder injury suffered by Coleston Loveland, the All-American tight end.

The defense spent a majority of his game looking as dominant as we’ve come to expect. Arkansas State could only muser 280 total yards for the game. Both touchdowns came in the 4th quarter while Michigan’s 28-3 lead would define that period as garbage time. However, there was also sloppiness to worry about from the D. Most critically, the penalties after the whistle must stop. Two drives were saved for the Red Wolves on absolutely avoidable penalties.

On special teams, we didn’t get a chance to deploy our most dangerous weapon, placekicker Dominic Zvada. I am sure he was looking for an opportunity to score against his former team, but no opportunity presented itself. Returns were muted all day by mostly fair catch signals. Punter Tommy Doman still has me a little worried. His three punts today averaged 39.0 yards. But, we’ve seen multiple punts this year of less than 30 yards, including a 29-yarder in the 4th quarter of this game.

We wanted to see a come-to-Jesus moment, but this game just underwhelmed those expectations. Offensively, I think we’ll get to see what Alex Orji is capable of. He certainly adds another explosive threat to the mix, and that will be a big boost if Loveland’s injury is serious. Defensively, they look closer to a finished product, but there is another major challenge looming when USC visits next weekend.

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By the Numbers: Game 3 vs. Arkansas State

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan was outclassed by Texas in the Big House, and scored late to post a 31-12 score that looks better than the game felt.  Davis Warren threw two interceptions, and the Wolverines’ defense showed they are human.

NEXT UP: vs. Ark. St.: SP+ 99th, -9.4

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 28.9, Michigan Win Probability 96%

While the Wolverines were thoroughly outplayed last weekend by the Texas Longhorns, the SP+ model did not shift much.  Michigan drops one spot to 13th overall.  The even wilder quirk of the model is that Texas’ unit rankings each improved, but overall the Longhorns also dropped one spot to #4.  Arkansas State is in alignment with average G5 teams.

Michigan Offense (67th) vs. Ark. St. Defense (124th) 

This week is potentially a now-or-never moment for Michign’s offense.  The Red Wolves bring a bottom feeder defensive unit to Ann Arbor.  We can use any number of traditional stats or advanced stats to measure the offense this week, but I just want to see Michigan move the line of scrimmage at the snap.  Arkansas State is giving up over 140 yards rushing per game so far versus Central Arkansas and Tulsa.  This is a big week for first year Offensive Line Coach Grant Newsome.  Michigan must re-establish their identity as a smash offense.  Any of the quarterbacks on the roster require an efficient run game to open up explosive plays in the air, or even using Oriji’s legs for chunk yardage gains.  Priority #1 for Michigan on Saturday has to be clean execution up front on offense.  

Michigan Defense (3rd) vs. Ark. St. Offense (69th)

Maybe it’s unfair to keep comparing the 2024 Michigan Football team to the 2023 team that won the national title.  But, if the Wolverines are going to maintain the program standard under first-year head coach Sherrone Moore, this defense will have to be just as good as last year’s unit.  The major challenge to accomplishing that objective is the 2024 depth being much thinner this season.  The Wolverines can no longer rely on a dominant performance from the 1st and 2nd units interchangeably.  So, to have success remotely comparable to last year’s defense, Wink Martindale will have to find a way to get off the field when they have the chance.  Hopefully, the offense will continue to evolve and improve enough to help rest the 1st team defense so they are fresh for the key moments late in games.

Arkansas State is almost exactly average nationally as an offensive unit.  They are averaging 426 total yards per game so far against a couple low-level opponents.  Quarterback Jaylen Raynor will be looking to push the ball down the field and challenge Michigan’s DBs who aren’t named Will Johnson.  Raynor is also the leading rusher for the Red Wolves through two weeks.  The Wolverines will definitely be rotating many players into this game as they try to shore up their depth.  If they can consistently get to Raynor and hit him, they will have some chances to create a few turnovers in this game. 

PREDICTION: This should be the last week where we enter the game with major question marks about how Michigan will manage personnel.  If Alex Orji is getting more snaps, especially consecutively, then they see his ability as critical to supporting the run game.  When Davis Warren and/or Jack Tuttle is at quarterback, the Wolverines are stating they think the run game will continue to improve without adding the QB run plays.  Either way, the key players are on the offensive line.  I am especially looking to see how Newsome is rotating players at right tackle. 

The Wolverines have a major talent advantage in this game, and expectations should match that edge.  Behind the scenes, we really need to evaluate how this group of leaders (both players & coaches) respond to being punched in the mouth.  If Michigan comes out hungry, looking to prove themselves all over again, then we can all move forward with more confidence into B1G Ten play.  I expect to see better balance and complementary football, but the offense will still be showing some growing pains.
Michigan 27 Ark. St. 6 (PRESEASON Michigan 33 Ark. St. 6)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/08/24, 1-1

SP+ Overall: 13th (↓1), 16.9

SP+ Offense: 67th (↓11), 27.7
SP+ Defense: 3rd (same), 10.9
SP+ Special Teams: 24th (↓16), 0.2

AP Poll: 17th (↓7), 503
Coaches’ Poll: 16th (↓7), 501
CFP Rank: N/A