Tag: By the Numbers

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By the Numbers: Game 14 vs. Georgia – Orange Bowl (CFP SF)

LAST GAME RECAP

The Wolverines jumped out in front of Iowa and never looked back as they eventually steamrolled the Hawkeyes 42-3 to win the Big Ten Championship in Indianapolis.

NEXT UP: vs. Georgia: 1st, 31.7 

PREGAME SP+: Georgia by 5.8, Michigan Win Probability 37%

With this being the Orange Bowl, taking place in Miami at a true neutral site, the projection is the difference between the two teams’ SP+ ratings.  The Vegas line has stayed pretty steady at Georgia (-7), so the SP+ model picks the Dawgs to win, but Michigan to cover.

Michigan Offense (16th) vs. Georgia Defense (1st) 

Josh Gattis is the freshly awarded Broyles Award winner, given to the top assistant coach in the nation.  Gattis’ last three game plans have been works of football art.  Michigan’s offensive Success Rate (garbage time removed) in the last three games: 60% @ Maryland; 72% vs. Ohio State; 48% vs. Iowa.  Perhaps more importantly, since identifying their struggles to finish drives in the mid-season, the Wolverines are now averaging 5.0 points per scoring attempt, and have been 6.0+ in their last 4 games.  

This Georgia defense is a whole other beast, though.  Before giving up 41 points to the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game, the Bulldogs were giving up less than a touchdown per game on the season (6.9 pts/game).  This match up pits the Michigan run-first mentality against an absolute juggernaut defense.  The Georgia players are almost all former blue chip prospects, with huge size and blazing speed.

In order to have success, the Wolverines will have to do another masterful job of keeping the defense guessing, and they’ll need Georgia to guess wrong at least a handful of times.  The most vulnerable area to attack this defense will be over the middle in the passing game.  An ideal situation would be a combination of the Wisconsin and Michigan State offensive game plans, with a much better running attack in the second half than we saw in East Lansing.  

Michigan Defense (7th) vs. Georgia Offense (3rd)

When the Bulldogs get the ball, there will be fascinating individual battles all across the field.  It seems like defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald will have junior safety Daxton Hill at his disposal, and that is a huge crisis averted.  Hill is the Michigan defender best suited to match up with the Dawgs’ most dangerous offensive weapons.  Georgia likes to get multiple tight ends onto the field, with the big bodies flexed out to block on the perimeter.  Dax has also been the Wolverines’ most consistent edge player in terms of taking on blocks and tackling quick screens.

In the vertical passing game, Georgia is likely welcoming back their most dangerous receiving threat, George Pickens.  Pickens suffered an ACL injury in March, but has taken limited snaps in the last two games for the Bulldogs.  The other major threat for MacDonald to account for with his scheme is true freshman tight end Brock Bowers.  Bowers has been the favorite target of QB Stetson Bennett in the absence of Pickens.  The Wolverines will need another herculean effort from their pass defense to contain those two, on par with the performance versus Ohio State’s wide receiving corps. 

With all that said, what Georgia really wants to do is establish the run game and march along the ground, very similarly to what we’ve seen from the Wolverines in 2021.  While Georgia boasts the 3rd ranked SP+ offense, they have earned that slot versus good-not-great defensive units.  Here are the top 5 SP+ defensive units on the Bulldogs’ schedule this year, with Georgia’s offensive points scored in parentheses: #3 Clemson (3); #10 Alabama (24); #21 Auburn (34); #27 Alabama-Birmingham (49); #34 Arkansas (30).  There is reason to believe that Michigan’s 7th-ranked defense can hold up against the Georgia run game.  Then the Bulldogs’ offensive tackles will be challenged to block both Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo on passing downs.  

PREDICTION: Both teams will show their commitment to battling it out in the trenches via the run game, and I think both defenses will maintain the upper hand.  The early stalemate feeling may feel frustrating, but I would call that success for Michigan.  For most of Georgia’s season, they raced in front of teams via explosive plays, and then leaned on their historically tough defense.  Michigan has been in more gut-check moments in 2021, and should relish a close game in the 4th quarter.  At that point, I believe it will be up to the unheralded quarterbacks.  Stetson Bennett has a running element to his game that makes him dangerous, but I think Cade McNamara will show his mental toughness one more time and make the play the Wolverines need.
Michigan 25 Georgia 24

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (12/05/21), 12-1

  • SP+ Overall: 4th (same), 25.9
  • SP+ Offense: 16th (↑1), 37.7
  • SP+ Defense: 7th (same), 14.5
  • SP+ Special Teams: 3rd (↓1), 2.7

AP Poll: 2nd (same), 1,480

Coaches’ Poll: 2nd (↑1), 1,474

CFP Rank: 2nd (same)

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U-M Resume after Game #13
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By the Numbers: Game 13 vs. Iowa (Big Ten Championship Game)

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines scaled the mountain, and didn’t even have to die trying.  While the Big House rocked on a snowy day, Michigan was physically dominant on offense and on defense as they pounded the Ohio State Buckeyes 42-27. 

NEXT UP: vs. Iowa: 21st, 13.7 

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 11.1, Michigan Win Probability 74%

I’ve mentioned it a few times this season, but it seems to be getting more and more true.  I think the Vegas bookmakers may have reverse-engineered the SP+ projections.  Currently, Michigan (-10.5) is projected to win by 11.1 by Connelly’s model.

Michigan Offense (22nd) vs. Iowa Defense (4th) 

Iowa’s defense is an open book.  They have run almost the exact same system for a decade.  The Hawkeye’s core philosophy is almost exactly what Michigan’s defensive approach was last week versus OSU.  They are going to stay true to their principles, keep WRs in front of them and tackle well.  Their best defensive player is LB Jack Campbell.  Campbell has racked up 121 tackles in 12 games.  Hassan Haskins versus Jack Campbell could be marketed individually as the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object.  Josh Gattis will likely tap into some of his creativity to find favorable matchups on the edges and underneath the Iowa coverage.  

Michigan Defense (7th) vs. Iowa Offense (92nd)

The Hawkeye’s offense is the lowest ranked unit Michigan has faced since Indiana.  They have two quarterbacks that have separate strengths, but neither has seized control of the offensive unit.  Of greatest concern for Iowa fans is they do NOT have their normal stable of NFL-bound offensive tackles.  The Hawkeyes’ are led by their All Conference center, Tyler Linderbaum.  They will need to find some running room inside, because they stand almost zero chance of slowing down Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo on passing downs.

PREDICTION: Kirk Ferentz and Jim Harbaugh have spoken glowingly about one another this week.  It’s pretty easy to see many similarities in their philosophies, and how they’ve built their respective programs.  For Michigan, the key will be eliminating self-inflicted wounds.  Taking care of the football, and making solid pre-snap decisions has been a strength of the Wolverines and their QB Cade McNamara.   Only 3 teams have scored more than 20 points against Mike MacDonald’s defense.  If the Wolverines avoid shooting themselves in the foot, I can’t see Iowa becoming the 4th.  
Michigan 31 Iowa 13

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/30/21, 11-1

  • SP+ Overall: 4th (same), 24.8
  • SP+ Offense: 17th (↑5), 37.1
  • SP+ Defense: 7th (same), 14.9
  • SP+ Special Teams: 2nd (same), 2.6

AP Poll: 2nd (↑4), 1,449

Coaches’ Poll: 3rd (↑3), 1,408

CFP Rank: 2nd (↑3)

U-M Resume after Game #12
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By the Numbers: Game 12 vs. Ohio State

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines overwhelmed the Maryland Terrapins in College Park.  The offense, defense, and special teams all found the end zone as Michigan trounced the Terps 59-18. 

NEXT UP: vs. Ohio State: 2nd, 32.3 

PREGAME SP+: OSU  by 5.8, Michigan Win Probability 37%

Since we reached the 2nd half of the regular season, the Buckeyes have been neck-and-neck with Georgia for the top spot in Bill Connelly’s SP+ predictive rankings.  Going into this game, OSU and Georgia have a rating of 32.3, while Michigan has climbed to 4th with a rating of 24.0.

Michigan Offense (22nd) vs. Ohio State Defense (14th) 

Most of the commentary in Michigan media this week has been focused on the Wolverines’ running attack helping to keep Ohio State’s high flying offense on the sidelines.  I agree that Michigan’s best defense will be a good offense, but there will be opportunities against the Bucks’ pass defense as well.  

Josh Gattis has put a lot of variation on film in the rushing attack.  Ohio State will need to be prepared for gap scheme runs between the tackles, and zone scheme runs that attack off tackle or outside.  Hassan Haskins will lead the charge from Michigan’s backfield, but I expect to see Blake Corum return.  Also, Donovan Edwards announced his arrival as a weapon last week in College Park.  

I believe all that run game variation will help gain rushing yards, but I think the biggest benefactor will be Cade McNamara.  The Wolverines have speedy outside receivers that must be respected by the CBs and safeties.  I think Michigan will look to find chunk yardage in the middle of the field via the intermediate passing game.  Hopefully Erick All is closer to being healthy, but Donovan Edwards could also threaten those linebackers’ coverage ability. 

Michigan Defense (7th) vs. Ohio State Offense (1st)

When the Buckeyes have the ball, Michigan will need every coach and every player to have their best game of the season.  OSU has 3 WRs that would likely be #1 pass threats on any other team in the Big Ten except Penn State with Jahan Dotson.  Nobody in the country can cover all three of those guys for more than 2-2.5 seconds.  Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo will need to lead a heroic effort to consistently force QB CJ Stroud to throw quickly.  Then all 11 Wolverines need to gang tackle because Wilson, Olave, and Smith-Njigba could each turn a 6 yard reception into a house call.   

Traditionally, this game is won by the team who rushes for more yardage.  While I don’t think this game is quite that simple to project, I do think that will end up being a true statement again this year.  5-star freshman TreVeyon Henderson has the same type of explosive ability as Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards.  The Buckeyes are also deep at running back with Miyan Williams and Master Teague likely to get touches as well.  Given how dangerous the quick-strike passing attack can be for OSU, it may be beneficial to use the defensive game plan to invite the Buckeyes to march along the ground.  This would help keep the clock running and reduce the total number of possessions the same way a Michigan running attack would.   

PREDICTION: On our preview podcast for The Game, we spent a good chunk of time trying to rally our portion of the fan base.  The pitch is basically this: don’t let past results suppress your enthusiasm for this 2021 team.  The Wolverines are absolutely capable of standing toe-to-toe with Ohio State.  Michigan’s most talented players will need to turn in iconic performances.  The offensive and defensive game plans need to land successfully, especially early on.  The 2nd half adjustments will also be critical, as the Buckeyes have found a way to pull away in the 3rd quarter in the last 3 editions of  The Game.  

The numbers and analytics are pretty clear, and I reflect that analysis in my official prediction.  But, I know there are multiple paths to a Michigan victory.  I am excited to see the entire community gather in Ann Arbor to cheer this team as they try to forge one of those victory paths this Saturday.  Have a very Happy Thanksgiving, and Go Blue!
Michigan 35 Ohio State 38 (PRESEASON Michigan 21 Ohio State 31)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/23/21), 10-1

  • SP+ Overall: 4th (↑1), 24.0
  • SP+ Offense: 22nd (↑3), 35.8
  • SP+ Defense: 7th (↓2), 14.5
  • SP+ Special Teams: 2nd (↑1), 2.6

AP Poll: 6th (↑2), 1,246

Coaches’ Poll: 6th (↑1), 1,250

CFP Rank: 5th (↑1)

U-M Resume after Game #11
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By the Numbers: Game 11 @ Maryland

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan bounced back from a sluggish start in Happy Valley.  Cade McNamara threw for 3 touchdowns and the Wolverines’ defense harassed Sean Clifford en route to a physical 21-17 victory over the Nittany Lions.

NEXT UP: @ Maryland: 56th, 6.3 

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 13.1, Michigan Win Probability 78%

The Vegas bookmakers have certainly dialed into similar calculations as those that Connelly uses for the SP+ model.  The Sunday betting line opened at Michigan -14.5 and has moved to -15.0.  Michigan has been very consistent and predictable, going 8-2 versus the spread so far.  Maryland is a total rollercoaster for the 2nd consecutive season.

Michigan Offense (25th) vs. Maryland Defense (73rd) 

Regardless of how Josh Gattis chooses to attack the Terps, Michigan should be able to execute that particular game plan.  The Wolverines haven’t seen a defense ranked this low in SP+ since Game #3 vs. NIU.  The number one question in this match up is the health of Michigan’s various offensive players, especially Blake Corum.  Hassan Haskins has proven that he is capable of carrying the workload.  However, Corum’s open field explosiveness has been missed.  Also, forcing the opposing defensive coordinator to account for Corum from sideline to sideline helps create running and passing lanes in the middle. 

Some other walking wounded may also see reduced snaps in this game, including tight end Erick All and wide receiver Roman Wilson.  With at least a handful of these injury problems facing the offense, we may not see the scoring explosion that the SP+ ranking disparity would suggest.

Michigan Defense (5th) vs. Maryland Offense (38th)

I was pleasantly surprised to see the Wolverines’ defensive unit ranked in the top 10 in the preseason.  I fully expected the defense to drop in the early season, and hoped they could rebound back near the top 10 by November.  Here we are in late November, and the Michigan defense has steadily climbed the SP+ rankings to #5 nationally. 

Maryland’s offense is dangerous, but not nearly as consistent as the Wolverines’ defense.  Quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa leads the Terps.  He possesses both the arm talent and the running ability to cause significant problems for Michigan.  I expect that he will pull a few rabbits out of his magic hat.  However, he will also fall victim to creating huge negative plays as well.  Taulia has shown that he will throw into coverage, especially when targeting former 5-star recruit Rakim Jarrett. 

We know Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo will make Tagovailoa scramble.  If the Michigan linebackers keep him contained on the ground, and the Michigan DBs make a handful of plays on 50/50 balls, then the Wolverines should be able to hold Maryland under 20 points.

PREDICTION: I didn’t expect that Michigan’s path to this point in the season would look how it has.  However, this is pretty much what I expected Michigan to be once this game rolled around on the calendar, so I didn’t tweak my preseason prediction by much.  Part of me wanted to lower Michigan’s offensive output, because the Wolverines’ staff may be overly vanilla if they can get away with it.  However, even a conservative game plan has yielded 30+ points for this team against better defenses than Maryland’s.  I know it’s familiar, but it remains true: if Michigan plays well, this should be a comfortable victory.
Michigan 39 Maryland 17 (PRESEASON Michigan 39 Maryland 14)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/16/21), 9-1

  • SP+ Overall: 5th (same), 21.9
  • SP+ Offense: 25th (↓8), 35.3
  • SP+ Defense: 5th (↑3), 14.1
  • SP+ Special Teams: 3rd (↓1), 0.6

AP Poll: 8th (↑1), 1,134

Coaches’ Poll: 7th (↑1), 1,153

CFP Rank: 6th (same)

U-M Resume after Game #10
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By the Numbers: Game 10 @ Penn State

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan rolled in ho-hum fashion over the Indiana Hoosiers.  The Wolverines came out ahead in all of the Five Factors metrics as they collected a 29-7 victory.

NEXT UP: vs. Penn State: 11th, 17.5

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 1.8, Michigan Win Probability 54%
The Wolverines are traveling to Happy Valley in search of their first road victory over Penn State since Jim Harbaugh’s first season in Ann Arbor in 2015.  It is important to note that SP+ does not adjust for injuries.  Some key defenders are missing for PSU, and Michigan may be down a handful of offensive weapons too.

Michigan Offense (17th) vs. Penn State Defense (7th) 

One key injury in this matchup is on the NIttany Lion interior defensive line: PJ Mustipher.  Before Mustipher got hurt, Penn State held opposing rushing attacks to 3.0 yards per carry in 5 out of their first 6 games.  After the injury, Illinois ran for 5.3 yards per carry, and Ohio State ran for 5.1 per carry. 

This should be good news to Josh Gattis’ ears, although Blake Corum will be limited if he’s even available at all.  I am sure the broadcast narrative will highlight red zone efficiency, and Penn State is another great red zone defense.  Michigan may start looking for opportunities to strike from 25-35 yards away through the air.

Michigan Defense (8th) vs. Penn State Offense (47th)

On paper, Michigan’s defensive unit has the most lopsided advantage over the PSU offense.  This all starts and ends with the Penn State offensive line woes.  They are a mediocre pass protecting unit, and have been abysmal in the run game. 

Another handicap for the Nittany Lions is the health of senior QB Sean Clifford.  Clifford has played well even after being injured against Iowa.  However, James Franklin and his staff have seen what life looks like with Clifford on the bench, and they have since chosen to remove Clifford’s ability to run out the game plan for the most part. 

This matchup will be analogous to a heavyweight fight of big-play haymakers between Clifford & Jahan Dotson versus Aidan Hutchinson, David Ojabo, and Dax Hill.  We could be saying “he who laughs last, laughs loudest” during the post-game.

PREDICTION: Even way back in the preseason, I expected Michigan would have their issues pretty much worked out by November.  I predicted the Wolverines to snap their losing skid in Happy Valley back then, and neither team has done anything to make me think any differently now. 

I do think Penn State will play well, and this will be a tight game.  We could be looking at a second half reminiscent of the 2019 game.  The defense will strangle the Nittany Lion offense for long stretches, but Michigan cannot let Clifford and Dotson make the big plays in high leverage moments late in this game, a la 2019 KJ Hamler. 
Michigan 27 Penn State 21 (PRESEASON Michigan 20 Penn State 16)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/09/21), 8-1

  • SP+ Overall: 5th (same), 21.8
  • SP+ Offense: 17th (↑1), 36.1
  • SP+ Defense: 8th (same), 14.9
  • SP+ Special Teams: 2nd (↑1), 0.6

AP Poll: 9th (same), 1,072

Coaches’ Poll: 8th (↓2), 1,099

CFP Rank: 6th (↑1)

U-M Resume after Game #9