Tag: By the Numbers

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By the Numbers: Game 9 vs. Indiana

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines let a 16-point lead slip through their fingers in East Lansing during a painful 37-33 loss to the Spartans.  Michigan did many positive things against Michigan State, but just couldn’t come up with the critical plays in high leverage moments.

NEXT UP: vs. Indiana: 61st, 5.3

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 17.9, Michigan Win Probability 85%
Indiana has crashed back to earth after living a charmed existence in 2020 as everyone’s favorite COVID team.  QB Michael Penix can’t stay healthy, and the Hoosiers have also lost their best defensive coverage guys to injury.  

Michigan Offense (18th) vs. Indiana Defense (41st) 

SP+ does not adjust for injured players who are missing, and that is the story of Indiana’s defense.  Their defensive backfield looked elite coming into the 2021 season.  However, they are hobbled by major injuries, most notably to cornerback Taiwan Mullen.  This matchup feels similar to how the Wolverines lined up with the Washington Huskies back in Week 2, except Indiana has lost their best cover guys.  I will be concerned if Michigan struggles for more than a series or two with their starters in this game.

Michigan Defense (8th) vs. Indiana Offense (74th)

Mike MacDonald and the Wolverine defense need a get right game.  The Hoosiers should be just what the doctor ordered.  Former Michigan backup QB Nick Sheridan has been uninspiring as offensive coordinator in Bloomington.  I don’t believe Indiana will be able to protect their own backup QB Donaven McCulley.  Indiana has come up with troublesome game plans in years past, though.  I expect the Hoosiers will attempt to exploit the Wolverines’ alignment issues versus tempo that proved to be fatal last week in East Lansing. 

PREDICTION:  Michigan will be challenged again to focus on the task at hand without looking ahead.  Nearly every matchup on paper is a sizable advantage for the Wolverines, and they are 3 touchdown favorites.  The team will not be able to disprove their most vocal doubters against this under-manned Hoosier team.  The goal must be to clean up the personnel issues on defense.  We also want to see confidence continue to build on offense.  Cade McNamara is coming off his best performance.  Now, Michigan fans would love to see a full, completely balanced performance from both the passing and rushing attacks.  I believe we’ll see continued success in terms of yardage, but this probably won’t be the game where Josh Gattis answers the red zone touchdown questions.

Michigan 32 Indiana 10 (PRESEASON Michigan 25 Indiana 17)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (10/31/21), 7-1

  • SP+ Overall: 5th (↑2), 20.8
  • SP+ Offense: 22nd 18th (same), 35.9
  • SP+ Defense: 8th (same), 15.7
  • SP+ Special Teams: 3rd (same), 0.6

AP Poll: 9th (↓3), 1,048

Coaches’ Poll: 10th (↓4), 1,050

CFP Rank: 7th

U-M Resume after Game 8
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By the Numbers: Game 8 @ Michigan State

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan handled their business by avoiding the classic trap game coming out of the bye week.  The Wolverines dominated statistically en route to a 33-7 victory.

NEXT UP: vs. Michigan State: 21st, 13.6

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 3.5, Michigan Win Probability 58%
There was a mild flare up online when the line for this game settled at Michigan (-4.5).  For yet another week, the Vegas spread is very close to the SP+ projection.  Through 7 games in 2021, Bill Connelly’s model is 5-2 against the opening spread in Michigan games.

Michigan Offense (18th) vs. Michigan State Defense (12th) 

When Michigan has the ball, this game will feel like the prototypical U-M vs MSU rivalry game.  The Wolverines are going to run the ball inside and out, and the Spartans are well aware of this.  For large portions of the contest I am sure this will be a gritty battle in the trenches.  I have very little doubt that Josh Gattis will basically say “here we come, try to stop us” as a base strategy.  Despite all that, the game may largely be decided on the handful of plays that Michigan State sells out to stop the Wolverine running game, and Josh Gattis dials up his counterattack.  Cade McNamara must be efficient and seize those opportunities for big chunk plays down the field.  

Michigan Defense (9th) vs. Michigan State Offense (53rd)

Michigan State’s offense has proven to be explosive in 2021.  Kenneth Walker has been electric running the ball.  Payton Thorne connects consistently with Jayden Reed and Jaylen Nailor on the outside.  Those two WRs have combined for 11 touchdown receptions through 7 games.  However, both Nebraska and Indiana were able to effectively bottle up this Spartan offense.  Michigan State managed to gain just 254 total yards in Week 4 versus the Cornhuskers.  The Hoosiers’ defense fared even better, holding MSU to only 241 total yards just before the Spartans took their week off.  The challenge for Mike MacDonald will be keeping all of the Spartan playmakers inside and in front of his defenders.  If the Wolverines’ DBs don’t get beat over the top, and can avoid giving away conversions via penalty, I trust Michigan’s edge defenders to keep Walker contained inside.

PREDICTION:  The 2021 battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy is the most anticipated chapter of the game in my lifetime.  Both teams are undefeated heading into the game for the first time since 1999, when UMGoBlue.com first appeared on dial up internet.  In many ways, these teams are very similar.  As is usually the case, Saturday’s victor will be decided by which players step up in key moments and can deliver big time plays.  All things considered, I believe Michigan will wear down the Spartans and take control of this game in the 2nd half.  Prepare yourself for an emotional rollercoaster as Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines are trading haymakers (figuratively of course) with Mel Tucker’s Spartans.
Michigan 31 Michigan State 21 (same as preseason)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (10/24/21), 7-0

  • SP+ Overall: 7th (↑1), 19.6
  • SP+ Offense: 22nd 18th (↓4), 34.9
  • SP+ Defense: 8th (↑1), 15.9
  • SP+ Special Teams: 3rd (↓1), 0.6

AP Poll: 6th (same), 1,270

Coaches’ Poll: 6th (same), 1,313

CFP Rank: N/A

U-M Resume after Game 7
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By the Numbers: Game 7 vs. Northwestern

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LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines are coming off a bye that followed their second consecutive road victory.  The latest victory was a 32-29 nail-biter that included a little bit of everything.  We saw diving catches, interceptions, and hurdled defenders, but also bad reads and blown coverages.

NEXT UP: vs. Northwestern: 77th, 1.0

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 21.6, Michigan Win Probability 89%

Vegas lines have again landed close to SP+ model projections.  I recorded the opening line at Michigan -21.5 on Sunday, so SP+ would have chosen Michigan by 0.1 point.  The line has moved to Michigan -23.5, so Bill Connelly has recorded the pick against the spread for Northwestern. Regardless, the Wolverines will need to avoid the proverbial trap game stumble with a potential top-ten showdown in East Lansing looming next weekend.  

Michigan Offense (18th) vs. Northwestern Defense (31st) 

The Northwestern defense has traditionally been the strength of the team under Pat Fitzgerald.  However, the 2021 team’s 31st SP+ defensive ranking is very misleading.  Their preseason ranking (12th) is still carrying most of the weight.  Longtime defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz retired after 51(!) seasons of coaching.  Northwestern also ranked dead last 129th in all FBS in returning production overall, and 128th on defense specifically.  All that personnel and leadership turnover has resulted in major issues for the Wildcats, especially in their run fits.  Northwestern has allowed an average of 272 yards rushing to their 3 previous Big Ten opponents. That bodes well for the Wolverines’ rushing attack.  

Michigan Defense (9th) vs. Northwestern Offense (108th)

Michigan’s unit-versus-unit advantage will be even more lopsided when Northwestern has the ball.  The Wildcats have scored less than 25 points in 5 of their 6 games, including just 24 points and 275 yards of total offense against FCS Indiana State.  Northwestern does usually trend upward as the season progresses, and they are coming off a much cleaner performance that resulted in a 21-7 victory at home over Rutgers.  

The Wolverines’ talent advantage should allow Michigan to overwhelm the Wildcats in the trenches.  The one potential troubling matchup will be running back Evan Hull and slot receiver Stephan Robinson against the Michigan linebackers in coverage. 

PREDICTION:  Michigan returns from the bye week trying to stay focused on the task at hand without looking ahead to hugely impactful matchups down the line.  I expect the coaching staff and upperclassmen leadership will be able to keep Northwestern as the primary focus.  

From a game plan standpoint, I think Josh Gattis will return to a heavy dose of running the ball against a pretty porous Northwestern front.  It will be interesting to see how Pat Fitzgerald and his defensive staff decide to load the box, and how Gattis reacts with the passing game going over the top.  

On defense, Michigan will be trying to shore up some of the issues the linebackers have experienced since Big Ten play started.  I expect Michigan will be able to pressure QB Ryan Hillinski with 4 or 5 rushers and may challenge Josh Ross, Nikhai Hill-Green, and Junior Colson to improve their underneath pass coverage.  We’ll see if there is a trend using Hill-Green more on standard downs, and the true freshman Colson seeing his snap count increase on passing downs.
Michigan 41 Northwestern 10 (PRESEASON Michigan 24 Northwestern 20)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (date)

  • SP+ Overall: 8th (same), 20.1
  • SP+ Offense: 18th (↑8), 35.6
  • SP+ Defense: 9th (↑1), 16.1
  • SP+ Special Teams: 2nd (↑1), 0.7

AP Poll: 6th (↑2), 1,214

Coaches’ Poll: 6th (↑1), 1,299

CFP Rank: N/A

U-M Resume after Game #6
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By the Numbers: Game 6 @ Nebraska

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LAST WEEK RECAP

The players, coaches, and even the fan base are starting to believe in Michigan as a B1G Ten East contender after the Wolverines traveled to Madison and schooled the Badgers 38-17. 

NEXT UP: @ Nebraska: 22nd, 13.5
PREGAME SP+: U-M by 3.6, Michigan Win Probability 58%

The SP+ model and the Vegas betting lines have converged in Week 6 in regard to Michigan.  There is only a 0.1 point difference in the spread, and a 1 point difference in the O/U total projection.  This spread is narrowed significantly by an adjustment for home field advantage.  We’ll see if Michigan can stay sharp on the road for the second consecutive week.  

Michigan Offense (26th) vs. Nebraska Defense (20th) 

The Wolverines are coming off another clean performance against the SP+ #3 defense from Wisconsin.  The Nebraska “black shirt” defense continues to improve, and manages to keep the Cornhuskers in every game they play.  

Michigan will have to deploy a balanced game plan, but I expect Josh Gattis to start the game by testing the interior of Nebraska’s defense.  The onus will be on the Michigan offensive line to create movement against their DL, and on Cade McNamara to make the correct reads and accurate throws on RPO opportunities behind the linebackers.

Michigan Defense (8th) vs. Nebraska Offense (34th)

On paper, the Michigan defense appears to have another significant advantage over Nebraska’s offensive unit.  One particularly lopsided match up will be on the edges of the line of scrimmage.  Aidan Hutchinson, David Ojabo, and the rest of the “Reapers” who play OLB for the  Wolverines will be too much to handle for the Huskers’ offensive tackles.  That means Scott Frost will be leaning heavily on plays that get the ball out of QB Adrian Martinez’ hands quickly as possible.  

More importantly, I think Nebraska will be extremely dependent on Martinez’ legs to move the ball by running option plays.  Surely Michigan is reviewing the film of Noah Vedral causing problems in the 2nd half of the Rutgers game.  Getting a healthy Josh Ross back into the center of the defense to make the calls and pick up formation tendencies will be a huge boost against Frost’s QB run game.

PREDICTION:  The dynamic of this game is very similar to last week as Michigan prepped for a trip to Madison.  You can add in the challenge of sitting around in a hotel all day waiting for a night game.  The atmosphere and crowd will be much more jacked up for this one.  Also, Adrian Martinez presents a much more dangerous dual threat challenge than Graham Mertz last week.   However, Martinez is prone to taking risks with the ball, and making turnover-worthy mistakes multiple times per game.  

Michigan will also leverage a clear advantage in special teams in this game.  Nebraska dropped their game against MSU specifically because of poor punting and punt coverage.  With all that said, the single largest reason that  I am much more confident that Michigan can bring their best performance on the road is the strength of the player leadership on this team makes a significant difference.  Nebraska’s penchant for making critical errors, and my confidence in Michigan’s ability to stay laser focused in the face of adversity make this feel like another multiple score victory for the Wolverines.

Michigan 33 Nebraska 13 (PRESEASON Michigan 42 Nebraska 23)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (10/3/21), 5-0

  • SP+ Overall: 8th (same), 19.7
  • SP+ Offense: 26th (↓9), 34.4
  • SP+ Defense: 8th (same), 15.3
  • SP+ Special Teams: 3rd (↑6), 0.6

AP Poll: 9th (↑5), 1,053

Coaches’ Poll: 8th (↑6), 1,125

CFP Rank: N/A

U-M Resume after Game #5
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By the Numbers: Game 5 @ Wisconsin

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LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan survived a scare from Rutgers for the second season in a row.  This time the Scarlet Knights were the team coming back from a 17-point deficit, but the Wolverines made the stops they needed to hold on 20-13.

NEXT UP: @ Wisconsin: 11th, 16.9

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 1.0, Michigan Win Probability 52%

Only 3 spots separate Michigan and Wisconsin in the SP+ rankings, despite the Wolverines’ (4-0) and Badgers’ (1-2) vastly different records.   Wisconsin’s two losses have come to SP+ #5 Penn State and #22 Notre Dame. 

Michigan Offense (17th) vs. Wisconsin Defense (4th) 

One primary reason I ground my expectations in analytics involves avoiding recency bias.  Even though Michigan’s offense had been a juggernaut for 6 out of 8 quarters this season, the last 2 quarters against Rutgers are fresh in the minds of all Michigan fans.  Although the rushing attack sputtered, and the passing game could not find their rhythm last Saturday, the Wolverines still sit at #17 in SP+ offense rankings.  That’s 1 spot in front of Penn State, and 22 spots ahead of Notre Dame.

On the flip side Wisconsin has an elite defensive unit, especially against the run.  I don’t expect to see the Badgers surrender a large number of scoring chances.  That means we’ll keep an eye on IsoPPP to measure how explosive Michigan can be when they do find successful plays. 

Points per Scoring Opportunity also shines as a critical metric for this game .  When the offense penetrates the Wisconsin 40-yard line, they will need to score touchdowns rather than settling for field goal attempts.

Michigan Defense (8th) vs. Wisconsin Offense (50th)

We can reasonably say that Mike MacDonald’s defensive unit saved Michigan’s victory over Rutgers.  When SP+ ranked the Wolverines’ defense #10 in the preseason, I mentioned that I thought that was inflated.  Through 4 weeks, Michigan has not only validated that initial ranking, but continued to climb as preseason expectations are removed from the SP+ model. 

In this week’s matchup with the Badgers, the Michigan defense represents the largest unit-versus-unit advantage for the Wolverines.  If the defense can create havoc and negative plays early in this game, they may be able to help subdue the crowd’s energy.  The Badgers’ fan base is starving for some positivity during their rocky start to the 2021 season.  Aidan Hutchinson, Dax Hill, and Josh Ross need to implant doubt & negative vibes into the Camp Randall crowd as early as possible.

PREDICTION: The range of possible outcomes for this game extends to both ends of the spectrum.  It could be a nail-biter for the duration.  However, the conditions feel right for either team to play poorly and get boat-raced off the field. 

The early season narrative for the Badgers starts with QB Graham Mertz struggling and turning the ball over.  Michigan continues to protect the ball very well to this point of the season.  If the turnover margin continues on that trend, then we could be celebrating a huge road victory from Madison. 

I expect both teams to play conservatively to limit the big momentum swings.  I can’t yet bring myself to predict a fast start and a complete 60-minute performance from Michigan on the road.  I still need to see a sharp game plan from each coordinator, and the leaders on the field consistently execute at a high level.
Michigan 17 Wisconsin 20 (PRESEASON Michigan 24 Wisconsin 30)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (9/26/21), 4-0

  • SP+ Overall: 8th (↓2), 20.4
  • SP+ Offense: 17th (↓4), 35.8
  • SP+ Defense: 8th (same), 15.8
  • SP+ Special Teams: 9th (↓7), 0.3

AP Poll: 14th (↑5), 677

Coaches’ Poll: 14th (↑5), 674

CFP Rank: N/A

U-M Resume after Game #4