Tag: By the Numbers

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By the Numbers: Game 4 vs. Rutgers

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LAST WEEK RECAP

Northern Illinois had no answers for Michigan’s offense as the Wolverines raced past the Huskies 63-10 in the final non-conference game of 2021.

NEXT UP: vs. Rutgers: 71st, 1.8

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 21.2, Michigan Win Probability 89%
The SP+ model is in love with the Wolverines.  So much so, that Bill Connelly trolled Michigan fans this past Sunday:

The (way too early) SP+ Resume model is also keeping Rutgers on the radar, currently ranking the Scarlet Knights’ 3-0 start as the 5th best resume to date. Look who is #2:

Michigan Offense (13th) vs. Rutgers Defense (43rd) 

Josh Gattis and the Michigan offense have rolled relentlessly right over the top of their first 3 opponents.  The offensive line is led by super-senior center Andrew Vastardis, who currently sits atop PFF’s blocking grade list for centers in all of FBS.  The Wolverines’ average Expected Points Added (EPA) per play reads an astounding 0.508, even after removing garbage time.  For context, the previous high average EPA for seasons I’ve tracked (back to 2016) was 0.209 in 2018.  In that 2018 season, the offense only eclipsed this current squad’s average EPA in two individual games: vs. WMU (0.750) and vs. Nebraska (0.633).

In 2020, Rutgers’ defense was able to bottle up the Michigan attack for the first half.  However, Cade McNamara’s entry to the game seemed to unlock the Wolverines’ offensive efficiency.  Michigan stormed back with 28 second-half points, and eventually held on in 3OT for a 48-42 victory.  The Scarlet Knights have also made the challenge harder on themselves.  News broke this week that two Rutgers’ defensive players, including starting CB Max Melton, will be suspended for at least this game. 

Michigan Defense (9th) vs. Rutgers Offense (87th)

When Rutgers has the ball, defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald will prioritize stopping the Knights’ rushing attack.  While they amassed 220 yards rushing in their opening win against Temple, and another 163 yards last week vs. Delaware, Rutgers could only manage 67 rushing yards in Week 2 at Syracuse (#57 defense in SP+).  This team is not built to rely on their quarterback, Noah Vedral, and the outside receivers to put up points in bunches either.  To continue their defensive success, Michigan must limit RB Isaih Pacheco’s big play ability.   

PREDICTION:  The 2021 Michigan football team is accomplishing the objectives they have communicated since Spring Ball.  First, the offense wanted to strengthen the run game and get off to a better start in each game.  Check and check.  Second, the defense wanted to install a new system that focuses on being less predictable while maintaining their aggressive nature.  Check and check.  Jim Harbaugh and his revamped staff seem energized by the early success within their respective position groups on both sides of the ball.  The upperclassmen are leading by example on the field.  Publicly all the players have maintained focus on the big picture season goals.  The program seems to effectively prioritize improving each week.  

Good vibes have started to rumble deep within the Michigan fan base.  Many folks are still very cautiously guarding their optimism and hope because they’ve been so scalded in recent seasons.  I can understand that, but try to make sure you’re appreciating and enjoying the excellent football that these kids are playing right now.  Greg Schiano has done well to improve the Rutgers program in just over one full season, but I don’t think this is a team that can disrupt Michigan’s current avalanche of enthusiasm.
Michigan 39 Rutgers 10 (PRESEASON Michigan 33 Rutgers 24)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (9/19/21), 3-0

  • SP+ Overall: 6th (same), 22.4
  • SP+ Offense: 13th (same), 37.5
  • SP+ Defense: 8th (↑1), 15.6
  • SP+ Special Teams: 2nd (↑3), 0.5

AP Poll: 19th (↑6), 456

Coaches’ Poll: 19th (↑6), 423

CFP Rank: N/A

U-M Resume after Game #3
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By the Numbers: Game 3 vs. Northern Illinois

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LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan steamrolled a Washington team who was searching for answers.  The Wolverines rolled up 343 rushing yards on the way to a 31-10 victory that had a vintage Harbaugh feel.

NEXT UP: vs. NIU: 108th, -10.4

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 35.9, Michigan Win Probability 95%

The SP+ model continues to love what Michigan is doing.  The Wolverines again moved up in the SP+ rankings to 6th overall.  NIU has been pretty static in the rankings, but they are a rollercoaster on the field.   The Huskies upset #66 Georgia Tech in Week 1, then lost at home to #88 Wyoming.

Michigan Offense (13th) vs. NIU Defense (97th) 

We used our recap podcast to discuss the worry emanating from Michigan fans about the pass offense after the Washington game.  I warned folks there, and I’ll warn everyone again here: the Wolverines might hand the ball off 40-50 times again in this game.  I do agree it would be nice for Michigan to get game speed reps for Cade McNamara to read the Huskies’ defense and work on his anticipation & improving the timing of his delivery.  It would also be great to see J.J. McCarthy and Donovan Edwards inserted into the game with the starters as early as possible, just as they were as the WMU game reached a 26-point lead.  However, these are nice-to-haves.  It is irrational to melt down if we see another ground & pound blowout over a MAC school.    

Michigan Defense (9th) vs. NIU Offense (108th)

There is one very clear difference between Mike MacDonald and his predecessor Don Brown that we don’t hear enough about.  MacDonald and the defensive staff clearly believe in the value of game experience for younger players down the depth chart.  I did a small double take when I saw both Junior Colson and Rod Moore on the field during the 1st Quarter of the Washington game with a 3-0 score.  We should really see a lot of unfamiliar faces in this one.  I do believe SP+ is underrating the NIU offense a little bit after they put up 395 total yards, including 191 yards on the ground, versus Wyoming last week.  Still, anything but utter domination and the bench emptying will be a disappointment.

PREDICTION: This is a ripe opportunity for an underwhelming hangover performance coming off last week’s Maize Out night game victory.  We are hearing the right coach speak about “…not falling in love with our stuff,” from Jim Harbaugh.  The players have reiterated “…we haven’t done anything yet,” when they are in front of the media.  We’ll see if the captains and other player leaders can actually turn those clichés into focus and enthusiasm right away, or if there is a sleepy start to this game.  One potential smelling salt for the Wolverines: the NIU quarterback is Rocky Lombardi.  He has some very valuable and recent experience catching Michigan asleep in the Big House.
Michigan 45 NIU 13 (PRESEASON Michigan 45 NIU 17)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (9/12/21), 2-0

  • SP+ Overall: 6th (↑1), 22.1
  • SP+ Offense: 13th (↑1), 37.3
  • SP+ Defense: 9th (↑1), 15.5
  • SP+ Special Teams: 5th (↑6), 0.2

AP Poll: 25th (NR), 163

Coaches’ Poll: 25th (NR), 180

CFP Rank: N/A

U-M Resume after Game #2
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By the Numbers: Game 2 vs. Washington

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LAST WEEK RECAP

Joy returned to Ann Arbor surrounding a 47-14 performance against Western Michigan to open the 2021 season.

NEXT UP: vs. Washington: 20th, 13.7

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 9.4, Michigan Win Probability 71%

In his Week 1 over-reactions column, ESPN’s Bill Connelly highlights Michigan as one of the big movers, up 10 spots to 7th overall.  Western Michigan also plummeted to 97th.  Washington’s loss to FCS Montana drops them 7 spots from 13th to 20th.

Michigan Offense (14th) vs. Washington Defense (23rd) 

Jim Harbaugh acknowledged that Michigan has been preparing for this game since fall camp, which is pretty standard.  The offense will be trying to build on the successful execution of their Week 1 game plan.  However, the challenge against Washington, the #1 defense in the Pac 12 in 2020, is on a much different level than Week 1.  

For me, the burning question is how Josh Gattis will use post-snap reads from QB Cade McNamara.  We didn’t see any hint of a QB run threat on zone read option plays until Dan Villari entered in garbage time.  I would expect Michigan to use run-pass-option plays (RPOs) against linebackers and safeties, as opposed to read option run plays against defensive ends, in an attempt to keep QB1 healthy.   

Michigan Defense (10th) vs. Washington Offense (27th)

Usually in Week 1, we get a few answers to questions from the offseason.  For Michigan’s defense, we learned what being “multiple” could look like this season.  We saw a mix of even and odd fronts, both man and zone coverages, and a wide range of personnel packages.  However, we might have more questions about Washington’s offense now than when the 2021 season started.  The Huskies only mustered 89 rushing yards against Montana in their opener, and QB Dylan Morris was sacked 3 times.  Morris was shorthanded when it came to weapons, as 3 WRs who were expected to play significant snaps were held out of the opener.  

I am keeping a “wait and see” approach to this matchup.  Sometimes a team can outsmart themselves by keeping their offensive game plan hidden because they think they can rely on superior talent.  We may be witnessing an example of that from Washington’s offense.  I expect them to look better under the lights, on the national TV broadcast, against Michigan.  

PREDICTION: Last week I called for the offense and special teams to give the defense some breathing room (check & check).  This week I am sending the call to Mike MacDonald’s defense.  While Washington’s loss was eye-opening, the real shock was that their offense went on sabbatical after scoring on their first possession vs. Montana.  Michigan will have to keep that offense smothered, especially if the Huskies are still missing 3 of their top WRs. 

The Washington defense under Jimmy Lake is going to be a very stiff test for the Wolverines’ offense.  This game is starting to feel a little bit low scoring, and probably will stay tight throughout the contest.  In the preseason I thought the Huskies’ returning experience on offense would be the difference, but there is no way I can stick with that perception after seeing their struggles in Week 1.  Under the lights this Saturday night, it will be the defense who will be called into the spotlight in some big moments.
Michigan 23 Washington 17 (PRESEASON Michigan 27 Washington 30)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (9/7/21), 1-0

SP+ Overall: 7th (↑10), 20.6
SP+ Offense: 14th (↑14), 36.7
SP+ Defense: 10th (same), 16.2
SP+ Special Teams: 11th, 0.1

AP Poll: NR

Coaches’ Poll: NRCFP Rank: N/A

Resume after Game #1
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2021 By the Numbers: Game 1 vs. Western Michigan

Michigan will need to put up points early and often for a couple reasons as the Wolverines kickoff the 2021 season against the WMU Broncos.

LAST WEEK RECAP

No game last week.  Here are links to the By the Numbers game-by-game preview and the season preview and game preview podcasts with Phil.

NEXT UP: vs. WMU: 72nd, 1.8

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 19, Michigan Win Probability 86%
Bill Connelly is on standby to adjust his model based on whether 2020 covid season data is correlated with early 2021 season performance.  Obviously Michigan fans are hoping that 2020 was an aberration.  The SP+ projected margin has increased from 16.5 to 19.0 since Connelly posted his preseason rankings.

Michigan Offense (28th) vs. WMU Defense (99th) 

We hear some clear themes coming from the Michigan offensive players and coaches as fall camp has shifted to game prep.  First, there will be a bolstered commitment to the run game.  On standard downs, the 2020 Wolverines were 50/50 between run and pass plays called.  Compare that to 2019, when Josh Gattis called 59% run plays, or to 2018 when Pep Hamilton et. al. called 68% run plays. 

Second, they want to start fast, and play from ahead.  Using Expected Points Added (EPA), the 2020 average offensive play actually improved from 2019 overall.  However, the 1st quarter split came back under zero! That means the average 1st quarter play in 2020 actually hurt the team’s chances of scoring points.  Gattis & the offense need to execute a clean game plan against Western’s 99th ranked defensive unit.  We absolutely must see balance, rhythm, and enough big plays to energize a fan base that is starving to reconnect with our favorite team.

Michigan Defense (10th) vs. WMU Offense (44th)

While the talk coming out of fall camp has been very positive, including being ranked #10 in SP+ on defense, I am still expecting to see significant growing pains from the defensive unit.  There will be a period of time early this season that Mike MacDonald will need to improve his feel for matching personnel groups to the opponent, while also signaling in calls from the sideline.  These things take repetition just like any other skill, and game day experience coordinating with coaches up in the booth is tough to simulate in practice.  We’ll also see execution mistakes from players on the field who are still learning the ins and outs of new positions, and young players who are seeing extended playing time for the first time. 

With all of that said, Michigan still has a significant talent advantage over the Broncos.  Also, Western has been forced to game plan using video from Baltimore Ravens games, and Tim Lester’s offensive staff is trying to guess what they’ll see just like we are.  I am bracing for a few eye-opening problems to cause concern with the fans at the Big House, but I expect Michigan’s most experienced and talented players will make enough key plays to secure a victory.  

PREDICTION: I am keeping my preseason prediction in place for the first game against Western Michigan.  All of our questions from the offseason are still valid.  I am encouraged by the optimism radiating from Schembechler Hall, but that is pretty standard fare for fall camp buzz.  I am looking for a solid performance out of the offense and special teams.  Those two units will have to give the new look Michigan defense some room for error.  I don’t expect the Wolverines to cover the spread.
Michigan 37 WMU 24 (Same as preseason)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (9/1/2021)

SP+ Overall: 17th, 18.3
SP+ Offense: 28th, 35.4
SP+ Defense: 10th, 17.1
SP+ Special Teams: N/A

AP Poll: NR

Coaches’ Poll: NR

CFP Rank: N/A

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By the Numbers: Week 6 vs. Penn State

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines survived three OTs against Rutgers to win 48-42 on the road.  The offense did a near-180 degree turnaround under Cade McNamara.  The defense did not.

NEXT UP: vs. Penn State: 29th, 9.8

PREGAME SP+: Penn State by 1.0, Michigan Win Probability 48%
Michigan & Penn State both look radically different than anybody expected before the Big Ten kicked off in October.  Michigan has underperformed SP+ expectations on defense allowing an average of 12.8 points more than SP+ projections.  Penn State has underperformed on both sides of the ball.  The Nittany Lion defense gives up an average of 11.2 more points than projections.  Their offense has scored 6.6 points less than projected.

Michigan Offense (44th) vs. Penn State Defense (30th) 
Michigan may have answered a couple big questions on offense.  It looks like Hassan Haskins will get a larger share of the running back carries going forward.  Also, Josh Gattis seemed to have more plays that use post-snap reads at his disposal once Cade McNamara took over at quarterback.  Still, the largest question mark still looms: how healthy will the Wolverines’ offensive line be?  We asked the same question headed into the Rutgers game, but lost center Andrew Vastardis to injury instead of regaining Jaylen Mayfield or Ryan Hayes at tackle.  Regardless, this Penn State defense is also short handed and just gave up 34 points to Iowa (54th SP+ offense).

Michigan Defense (37th) vs. Penn State Offense (34th)
In my mind, this game will be decided in big moments while Penn State has the ball.  First, it’s critical for Michigan to get off to a solid start.  Penn State has yet to score more than 7 points in the first half in any game in 2020.  That includes games against Maryland (67th SP+ defense, PSU 19 points) and against Nebraska (76th SP+ defense, PSU 23 points).  Second, the Wolverines need to keep the Penn State quarterbacks uncomfortable.  If Don Brown can get back to using havoc and confusion to create turnovers, then the defensive unit could give their offensive teammates a big boost.  That may be too big an “IF” statement though, given the injuries stretching the defensive two deep perilously thin.

PREDICTION: Michigan should be able to string together successful offensive plays against this diminished Penn State defensive unit.  If I was confident that Michigan would have their best 5 offensive linemen healthy, I would feel much more comfortable heading into Saturday.  While we are starting to see a few playmakers emerge on offense, the Wolverines need some young defenders to step forward.  I will be looking for DT Chris Hinton, LB Michael Barrett, and S Daxton Hill to be difference makers during crunch time in Ann Arbor.

Michigan 28 Penn State 27 (PRESEASON Michigan 27 Penn State 21)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/24/2020), 2-3

SP+ Overall: 40th (↓13), 6.8
SP+ Offense: 44th (↓9), 31.6
SP+ Defense: 37th (↓11), 24.7
SP+ Special Teams: 81st (↑2), -0.1

AP Poll: NR (same), 0

Coaches’ Poll: NR (same), 0

CFP Rank: NR