Tag: Analysis

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines scaled the mountain, and didn’t even have to die trying.  While the Big House rocked on a snowy day, Michigan was physically dominant on offense and on defense as they pounded the Ohio State Buckeyes 42-27. 

NEXT UP: vs. Iowa: 21st, 13.7 

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 11.1, Michigan Win Probability 74%

I’ve mentioned it a few times this season, but it seems to be getting more and more true.  I think the Vegas bookmakers may have reverse-engineered the SP+ projections.  Currently, Michigan (-10.5) is projected to win by 11.1 by Connelly’s model.

Michigan Offense (22nd) vs. Iowa Defense (4th) 

Iowa’s defense is an open book.  They have run almost the exact same system for a decade.  The Hawkeye’s core philosophy is almost exactly what Michigan’s defensive approach was last week versus OSU.  They are going to stay true to their principles, keep WRs in front of them and tackle well.  Their best defensive player is LB Jack Campbell.  Campbell has racked up 121 tackles in 12 games.  Hassan Haskins versus Jack Campbell could be marketed individually as the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object.  Josh Gattis will likely tap into some of his creativity to find favorable matchups on the edges and underneath the Iowa coverage.  

Michigan Defense (7th) vs. Iowa Offense (92nd)

The Hawkeye’s offense is the lowest ranked unit Michigan has faced since Indiana.  They have two quarterbacks that have separate strengths, but neither has seized control of the offensive unit.  Of greatest concern for Iowa fans is they do NOT have their normal stable of NFL-bound offensive tackles.  The Hawkeyes’ are led by their All Conference center, Tyler Linderbaum.  They will need to find some running room inside, because they stand almost zero chance of slowing down Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo on passing downs.

PREDICTION: Kirk Ferentz and Jim Harbaugh have spoken glowingly about one another this week.  It’s pretty easy to see many similarities in their philosophies, and how they’ve built their respective programs.  For Michigan, the key will be eliminating self-inflicted wounds.  Taking care of the football, and making solid pre-snap decisions has been a strength of the Wolverines and their QB Cade McNamara.   Only 3 teams have scored more than 20 points against Mike MacDonald’s defense.  If the Wolverines avoid shooting themselves in the foot, I can’t see Iowa becoming the 4th.  
Michigan 31 Iowa 13

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/30/21, 11-1

• SP+ Overall: 4th (same), 24.8
• SP+ Offense: 17th (↑5), 37.1
• SP+ Defense: 7th (same), 14.9
• SP+ Special Teams: 2nd (same), 2.6

AP Poll: 2nd (↑4), 1,449

Coaches’ Poll: 3rd (↑3), 1,408

CFP Rank: 2nd (↑3)

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines overwhelmed the Maryland Terrapins in College Park.  The offense, defense, and special teams all found the end zone as Michigan trounced the Terps 59-18. 

NEXT UP: vs. Ohio State: 2nd, 32.3 

PREGAME SP+: OSU  by 5.8, Michigan Win Probability 37%

Since we reached the 2nd half of the regular season, the Buckeyes have been neck-and-neck with Georgia for the top spot in Bill Connelly’s SP+ predictive rankings.  Going into this game, OSU and Georgia have a rating of 32.3, while Michigan has climbed to 4th with a rating of 24.0.

Michigan Offense (22nd) vs. Ohio State Defense (14th) 

Most of the commentary in Michigan media this week has been focused on the Wolverines’ running attack helping to keep Ohio State’s high flying offense on the sidelines.  I agree that Michigan’s best defense will be a good offense, but there will be opportunities against the Bucks’ pass defense as well.  

Josh Gattis has put a lot of variation on film in the rushing attack.  Ohio State will need to be prepared for gap scheme runs between the tackles, and zone scheme runs that attack off tackle or outside.  Hassan Haskins will lead the charge from Michigan’s backfield, but I expect to see Blake Corum return.  Also, Donovan Edwards announced his arrival as a weapon last week in College Park.  

I believe all that run game variation will help gain rushing yards, but I think the biggest benefactor will be Cade McNamara.  The Wolverines have speedy outside receivers that must be respected by the CBs and safeties.  I think Michigan will look to find chunk yardage in the middle of the field via the intermediate passing game.  Hopefully Erick All is closer to being healthy, but Donovan Edwards could also threaten those linebackers’ coverage ability. 

Michigan Defense (7th) vs. Ohio State Offense (1st)

When the Buckeyes have the ball, Michigan will need every coach and every player to have their best game of the season.  OSU has 3 WRs that would likely be #1 pass threats on any other team in the Big Ten except Penn State with Jahan Dotson.  Nobody in the country can cover all three of those guys for more than 2-2.5 seconds.  Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo will need to lead a heroic effort to consistently force QB CJ Stroud to throw quickly.  Then all 11 Wolverines need to gang tackle because Wilson, Olave, and Smith-Njigba could each turn a 6 yard reception into a house call.   

Traditionally, this game is won by the team who rushes for more yardage.  While I don’t think this game is quite that simple to project, I do think that will end up being a true statement again this year.  5-star freshman TreVeyon Henderson has the same type of explosive ability as Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards.  The Buckeyes are also deep at running back with Miyan Williams and Master Teague likely to get touches as well.  Given how dangerous the quick-strike passing attack can be for OSU, it may be beneficial to use the defensive game plan to invite the Buckeyes to march along the ground.  This would help keep the clock running and reduce the total number of possessions the same way a Michigan running attack would.   

PREDICTION: On our preview podcast for The Game, we spent a good chunk of time trying to rally our portion of the fan base.  The pitch is basically this: don’t let past results suppress your enthusiasm for this 2021 team.  The Wolverines are absolutely capable of standing toe-to-toe with Ohio State.  Michigan’s most talented players will need to turn in iconic performances.  The offensive and defensive game plans need to land successfully, especially early on.  The 2nd half adjustments will also be critical, as the Buckeyes have found a way to pull away in the 3rd quarter in the last 3 editions of  The Game.  

The numbers and analytics are pretty clear, and I reflect that analysis in my official prediction.  But, I know there are multiple paths to a Michigan victory.  I am excited to see the entire community gather in Ann Arbor to cheer this team as they try to forge one of those victory paths this Saturday.  Have a very Happy Thanksgiving, and Go Blue!
Michigan 35 Ohio State 38 (PRESEASON Michigan 21 Ohio State 31)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/23/21), 10-1

• SP+ Overall: 4th (↑1), 24.0
• SP+ Offense: 22nd (↑3), 35.8
• SP+ Defense: 7th (↓2), 14.5
• SP+ Special Teams: 2nd (↑1), 2.6

AP Poll: 6th (↑2), 1,246

Coaches’ Poll: 6th (↑1), 1,250

CFP Rank: 5th (↑1)

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan bounced back from a sluggish start in Happy Valley.  Cade McNamara threw for 3 touchdowns and the Wolverines’ defense harassed Sean Clifford en route to a physical 21-17 victory over the Nittany Lions.

NEXT UP: @ Maryland: 56th, 6.3 

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 13.1, Michigan Win Probability 78%

The Vegas bookmakers have certainly dialed into similar calculations as those that Connelly uses for the SP+ model.  The Sunday betting line opened at Michigan -14.5 and has moved to -15.0.  Michigan has been very consistent and predictable, going 8-2 versus the spread so far.  Maryland is a total rollercoaster for the 2nd consecutive season.

Michigan Offense (25th) vs. Maryland Defense (73rd) 

Regardless of how Josh Gattis chooses to attack the Terps, Michigan should be able to execute that particular game plan.  The Wolverines haven’t seen a defense ranked this low in SP+ since Game #3 vs. NIU.  The number one question in this match up is the health of Michigan’s various offensive players, especially Blake Corum.  Hassan Haskins has proven that he is capable of carrying the workload.  However, Corum’s open field explosiveness has been missed.  Also, forcing the opposing defensive coordinator to account for Corum from sideline to sideline helps create running and passing lanes in the middle. 

Some other walking wounded may also see reduced snaps in this game, including tight end Erick All and wide receiver Roman Wilson.  With at least a handful of these injury problems facing the offense, we may not see the scoring explosion that the SP+ ranking disparity would suggest.

Michigan Defense (5th) vs. Maryland Offense (38th)

I was pleasantly surprised to see the Wolverines’ defensive unit ranked in the top 10 in the preseason.  I fully expected the defense to drop in the early season, and hoped they could rebound back near the top 10 by November.  Here we are in late November, and the Michigan defense has steadily climbed the SP+ rankings to #5 nationally. 

Maryland’s offense is dangerous, but not nearly as consistent as the Wolverines’ defense.  Quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa leads the Terps.  He possesses both the arm talent and the running ability to cause significant problems for Michigan.  I expect that he will pull a few rabbits out of his magic hat.  However, he will also fall victim to creating huge negative plays as well.  Taulia has shown that he will throw into coverage, especially when targeting former 5-star recruit Rakim Jarrett. 

We know Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo will make Tagovailoa scramble.  If the Michigan linebackers keep him contained on the ground, and the Michigan DBs make a handful of plays on 50/50 balls, then the Wolverines should be able to hold Maryland under 20 points.

PREDICTION: I didn’t expect that Michigan’s path to this point in the season would look how it has.  However, this is pretty much what I expected Michigan to be once this game rolled around on the calendar, so I didn’t tweak my preseason prediction by much.  Part of me wanted to lower Michigan’s offensive output, because the Wolverines’ staff may be overly vanilla if they can get away with it.  However, even a conservative game plan has yielded 30+ points for this team against better defenses than Maryland’s.  I know it’s familiar, but it remains true: if Michigan plays well, this should be a comfortable victory.
Michigan 39 Maryland 17 (PRESEASON Michigan 39 Maryland 14)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/16/21), 9-1

• SP+ Overall: 5th (same), 21.9
• SP+ Offense: 25th (↓8), 35.3
• SP+ Defense: 5th (↑3), 14.1
• SP+ Special Teams: 3rd (↓1), 0.6

AP Poll: 8th (↑1), 1,134

Coaches’ Poll: 7th (↑1), 1,153

CFP Rank: 6th (same)