Final Score: 51-7, Michigan by 44 over Colorado State SP+ Projection: Michigan by 31.5 (+12.5) CD Projection: Michigan by 35 (+9)
FIVE FACTORS
GAME 1 RECAP vs. Colorado State
I am going to avoid overreaction to the best of my ability. The Michigan defense looked a step ahead of where I expected, but who knows how good the CSU offense is? The offense was effective, but left a little bit to be desired in terms of crisp execution. Special teams were solid as always, and I think I heard a sigh of relief from the Big House faithful when AJ Henning was back deep on punt return instead of Ronnie Bell.
Offensively, we know all the attention will be on the QB race. Cade McNamara got the start and led 8 drives, but JJ McCarthy came in on the 8th drive and scored a rushing touchdown. There were 3 FG drives, 2 punts, & 2 touchdown drives before the McCarthy rushing TD. Today is not enough information to make a decision, but if you had to score this round like a boxing match, I would say JJ 10 Cade 9. There is still a long way to go.
The Wolverines dominated on defense. Michigan racked up 11 tackles for loss, including 7 sacks. The longest drive for the Rams was 7 plays for 33 yards and ended in a turnover on downs as the clock turned to the 4th quarter. The most encouraging piece of this defensive performance is the number of players, especially young players, that got onto the field. That was true even in the first half before garbage time.
Another big thing to remember in 2022 is to be grateful for the special teams excellence that we have in Ann Arbor. Jake Moody pounded every kickoff into a touchback, and both of Brad Robbins’ punts were returned for 0 yards inside the Rams’ 20 yard line. Moody was also 3/3 on field goals. All in all it was a great day to be a Michigan Wolverine. Onward!
Michigan’s offense returns nearly everybody, including Ronnie Bell who led the team in receiving in 2019 & 2020 before suffering an ACL injury in last year’s season opener.
Michigan is looking to follow up on perhaps their best season since the 1997 National Championship. We endured a “will he, won’t he” with Jim Harbaugh and the NFL. We’re also just starting a QB battle between Cade McNamara and JJ McCarthy that threatens to split the fan base in half. But now it’s Labor Day weekend, and that means we kick off the 2022 return of UMGoBlue.com By the Numbers analysis with a game-by-game preview of the 2022 Michigan Football season. In the By the Numbersarticles and podcasts we will compile, review, and summarize various metrics to look deeper into the football team’s performance while trying to provide a clearer picture of how the upcoming games may turn out.
The foundation for most of my analysis comes from the ESPN SP+ college football analytics model, created by Bill Connelly. While his system is meant to be predictive for beating the odds against Vegas, studying the Five Factors is also useful for understanding what a team does, or needs to do, to win football games.
What is SP+
SP+ is the tempo and opponent adjusted college football analytical model developed by Bill Connelly for Football Outsiders (he is now at ESPN). SP+ is based around the core concepts of the Five Factors of winning football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers. The resulting metric is expressed in adjusted points per game, as compared to the average CFB team.
When it comes to predicting the outcome of Michigan Football games, I’ve tracked my own record, and that of the SP+ projections, since I started writing for UMGoBlue.com in 2018.
Connelly’s SP+ preseason projections were amazingly accurate in picking the straight up winners in 2018 & 2019, missing only twice (2018 picked MSU & 2019 picked Michigan over PSU). In 2019, as Connelly updated his model through the season for Game Week projections, SP+ correctly picked the straight up winner in all 13 games for Michigan. Just like almost everything in 2020, college football projections were a total crapshoot, even for the best in the business. In 2021 the SP+ preseason model was off in their preseason evaluation of Michigan, including 1-11 against the spread. That can be forgiven since nearly everyone was surprised by Michigan’s 2021 Championship turnaround.
Like most Michigan fans, I have often been a victim of preseason optimism. The 2018 season was also a painful learning experience while riding too high on the Revenge Tour. While I picked the correct outcome in 10 out of 12 games, I was bad at predicting the margins. That led to a 3-9 inaugural season against the spread. In 2019 I bounced back against the spread to 10-3, and followed up with a 5-1 record in the 2020 COVID season. That one miss in 2020 was my worst ever, in Game #2 vs. MSU. I cooled off a touch in 2021 with an 8-6 record against the spread in my game week predictions.
The Wolverines’ SP+ ranking is in alignment with our preseason expectations. The defense looks like it should be good, but maybe not great. The offense will likely be asked to carry the team multiple times in 2022, particularly in the first half of the season.
2022 Regular Season Schedule
vs. Colorado State: 96th Overall, 109th Offense, 71st Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 31.5
PREDICTION: The weakness of the non-conference slate in 2022 has gotten a lot of publicity as Michigan’s season draws near. Colorado State brings the SP+ 96th ranked team to Ann Arbor, and they are the highest ranked non-con opponents…by ~30 spots. I think the Rams will finish the season much higher than 96th, but this game will see the Wolverines trying to make a statement that last year was no fluke.
Michigan 49 Colorado State 14, 1-0
vs. Hawaii: 123rd Overall, 101st Offense, 129th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 43.1
PREDICTION: It’s tough to make too much out of this mismatch. Hawaii always has an uphill climb with the logistics challenges involved with flying a football team across an ocean for half your season. This season new head coach Timmy Chang will be given plenty of leeway to show what he’s capable of. I expect this Week 2 night game matchup with Michigan to be pretty lopsided for the Wolverines.
Michigan 56 Hawaii 9, 2-0
vs. UConn: 128th Overall, 129th Offense, 122nd Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 48.8
PREDICTION: Michigan might experience an emotional let down in Week 3. UConn comes into Ann Arbor with their new head coach Jim Mora. If the Huskies are 0-2 and look as listless as they did in 2021, this one will struggle to crack 100K in Big House attendance. Let’s hope the apathy is limited to the fan base, and the team is not caught looking ahead to the B1G season opener.
Michigan 37 UConn 10, 3-0
vs. Maryland: 54th Overall, 29th Offense, 89th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 19.8
PREDICTION: This game has already lulled Michigan fans and local media to sleep. The preseason narrative is all about the weak “September Schedule” and the first four walkover games before a road trip to Iowa City. That is a big mistake. Maryland’s wide receivers are in the same tier as Michigan’s & Ohio States. If the Terps can protect Taulia Tagovailoa, and can also protect the football, this game could be a shoot out.
Michigan 48 Maryland 39, 4-0
@ Iowa: 27th Overall, 62nd Offense, 8th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 5.6
PREDICTION: The Wolverines have experienced multiple nightmares at Kinnick versus the Hawkeyes. Both teams could be 4-0 leading into this rematch of the 2021 B1G Championship Game. If that happens, FOX probably chooses this game for their noon slot. That would be a very good break for Michigan. Regardless of time slot, I expect this game will be a low-scoring rock fight. Bet the under as soon as it’s available.
PREDICTION: Indiana’s program has been problematic for Michigan under Tom Allen’s leadership. I think this 2nd consecutive road trip will create some fatigue for the Wolverines, and the Hoosiers will do their best to duplicate the Iowa defensive game plan. In the end, this may be the game where we find out which players will step up in the biggest moments for Michigan. Initially, I am looking to Ronnie Bell and DJ Turner to make the critical plays in high leverage situations.
Michigan 31 Indiana 17, 6-0
vs. Penn State: 13th Overall, 48th Offense, 6th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 7.4
PREDICTION: The Nittany Lions travel to the Big House to kick off the 2nd half of the schedule. Traditionally, Jim Harbaugh’s teams have handled James Franklin’s program with ease in home games. The 2020 COVID year was a glaring exception. Penn State’s defense could keep this from getting to blow out status, but I think the Wolverines will stay in control for almost the entire game to stay unbeaten.
Michigan 29 Penn State 17, 7-0
vs. Michigan State: 15th Overall, 20th Offense, 20th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 7.8
PREDICTION: I am mostly a believer in Mel Tucker’s ability to put together a dangerous team from the transfer portal. I expect the 2022 battle for the Paul Bunyan trophy to resemble a heavyweight fight. Both sides will land some haymakers. The biggest advantage for Michigan will be talent in the secondary. I expect to see the Wolverines make 1 or 2 huge plays in the 4th quarter, with perhaps another Andrel Anthony sighting.
PREDICTION: Plain and simple, Greg Schiano’s defensive scheme gives Michigan problems. The Wolverines got out to a good start against the Scarlet Knights in 2021, but their lack of linebacker depth allowed Rutgers to hang out longer than Maize & Blue faithful were comfortable with. This might be the BTN night game, on the road in Piscataway. I think Schiano finds a way to keep it close again.
Michigan 30 Rutgers 20, 9-0
vs. Nebraska: 44th Overall, 53rd Offense, 33rd Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 15.6
PREDICTION: The crystal ball gets pretty cloudy when trying to predict November games from the couch in preseason. Nebraska is a total wild card. History says that Scott Frost will put together a very solid football team. But, they will find ways to lose football games. In a lot of ways they remind me of my favorite NFL team. I am just assuming the Cornhuskers get it figured out well enough to give this game a medium-sized profile. I also expect Frost to find a way to choke away a heartbreaker.
Michigan 24 Nebraska 23, 10-0
vs. Illinois: 79th Overall, 104th Offense, 42nd Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 26.3
PREDICTION: In 2022, the Fighting Illini have drawn the sandwich November trap game slot in Michigan’s schedule. If the Wolverines find themselves undefeated and in the hunt for a B1G Championship and CFP berth, then the most important question will be whether the players can focus on anything other than The Game. This will be Senior Night, and player leadership will be crucial in keeping Illinois & their running game in the crosshairs.
PREDICTION: Ohio State’s offense is probably going to be BETTER than that Death Star from 2021. CJ Stroud, Jackson Smith-Njigba, & Trevyon Henderson were superstars last year, and they will all be battling for Heisman trophy consideration by this point in the season. The bigger questions reside on the Buckeyes’ coaching staff. Has Ryan Day’s 1-1 record versus Michigan sewn any lasting doubt? Can Jim Knowles right the ship on defense in one season? I expect the Wolverines will have a number of chances to win their 2nd consecutive game versus OSU for the first time since 2000. However, in Columbus, I am bracing myself for something ridiculous to happen.
Michigan 39 Ohio State 45, 11-1 2nd Place in B1G Ten East
DJ Turner emerged as a shutdown corner late in 2021, and will be asked to provide leadership for a young secondary in 2022. Can new Defensive Coordinator Jesse Minter create enough pressure to generate more turnovers this season?
Final Score: 34-11, Georgia by 23 over Michigan SP+ Projection: Georgia by 5.8 (-17.2) CD Projection: Michigan by 1 (-24)
FIVE FACTORS
GAME 14 RECAP vs. Georgia – Orange Bowl
This turned into the nightmare scenario for how Michigan was approaching the game. The Wolverines won the toss and deferred. Georgia marched 80 yards in 7 plays for an opening touchdown on a well-scouted and perfectly scripted drive. When Michigan turned the ball over on downs at the Georgia 41 on their first possession, it was clear the Wolverines were going to play from behind. That is not where you want to be against a historically good defense.
Offensively, Michigan had their identity snuffed out. The Bulldogs dominated Michigan’s hard-nosed, smash-mouth running attack. With garbage time removed, the Wolverines managed just a 23% Success Rate on called run plays. When the offensive line did create creases for Haskins, Corum, and Edwards the Georgia linebackers were tremendous tacklers and gave up next to nothing after contact.
The Bulldogs also generated more pressure on Cade McNamara than previously seen this season. McNamara was sacked 4 times, and never settled into a rhythm throwing the ball. He also threw 2 interceptions. This was the antithesis of how Michigan’s offense had functioned in 2021. At the end, Jim Harbaugh inserted freshman QB JJ McCarthy because his scrambling ability was a necessity just to survive down-to-down versus Georgia’s front.
On the defensive side, the Bulldogs also ran circles around Michigan. The first 4 Georgia drives were all scoring opportunities, resulting in 2 touchdowns and 2 field goals, yielding 5.0 points per scoring opportunity. On the fifth drive, Georgia QB Stetson Bennett found Jermaine Burton for a 57-yard touchdown strike that felt like the exclamation point.
To Michigan’s credit, they kept battling despite the lopsided score. Josh Ross again led the team with 11 tackles, and sophomore DL added 7 tackles. Dax Hill returned from an unknown injury or illness and threatened a handful of passes on the edge.
But, in the end this was Georgia’s day. Michigan needed to play another near-perfect game to push this game to the brink. The Bulldogs avalanched the Wolverines early, and gave very little chance for Michigan to claw back.
Instead, most fans turned to a New Year’s Eve mentality for most of the evening. We spent a lot of time reflecting and appreciating the great year that was 2021 for Michigan Football. Then, Michigan started making resolutions to build a better 2022.
PREGAME SP+: Georgia by 5.8, Michigan Win Probability 37%
With this being the Orange Bowl, taking place in Miami at a true neutral site, the projection is the difference between the two teams’ SP+ ratings. The Vegas line has stayed pretty steady at Georgia (-7), so the SP+ model picks the Dawgs to win, but Michigan to cover.
Michigan Offense (16th) vs. Georgia Defense (1st)
Josh Gattis is the freshly awarded Broyles Award winner, given to the top assistant coach in the nation. Gattis’ last three game plans have been works of football art. Michigan’s offensive Success Rate (garbage time removed) in the last three games: 60% @ Maryland; 72% vs. Ohio State; 48% vs. Iowa. Perhaps more importantly, since identifying their struggles to finish drives in the mid-season, the Wolverines are now averaging 5.0 points per scoring attempt, and have been 6.0+ in their last 4 games.
This Georgia defense is a whole other beast, though. Before giving up 41 points to the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game, the Bulldogs were giving up less than a touchdown per game on the season (6.9 pts/game). This match up pits the Michigan run-first mentality against an absolute juggernaut defense. The Georgia players are almost all former blue chip prospects, with huge size and blazing speed.
In order to have success, the Wolverines will have to do another masterful job of keeping the defense guessing, and they’ll need Georgia to guess wrong at least a handful of times. The most vulnerable area to attack this defense will be over the middle in the passing game. An ideal situation would be a combination of the Wisconsin and Michigan State offensive game plans, with a much better running attack in the second half than we saw in East Lansing.
Michigan Defense (7th) vs. Georgia Offense (3rd)
When the Bulldogs get the ball, there will be fascinating individual battles all across the field. It seems like defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald will have junior safety Daxton Hill at his disposal, and that is a huge crisis averted. Hill is the Michigan defender best suited to match up with the Dawgs’ most dangerous offensive weapons. Georgia likes to get multiple tight ends onto the field, with the big bodies flexed out to block on the perimeter. Dax has also been the Wolverines’ most consistent edge player in terms of taking on blocks and tackling quick screens.
In the vertical passing game, Georgia is likely welcoming back their most dangerous receiving threat, George Pickens. Pickens suffered an ACL injury in March, but has taken limited snaps in the last two games for the Bulldogs. The other major threat for MacDonald to account for with his scheme is true freshman tight end Brock Bowers. Bowers has been the favorite target of QB Stetson Bennett in the absence of Pickens. The Wolverines will need another herculean effort from their pass defense to contain those two, on par with the performance versus Ohio State’s wide receiving corps.
With all that said, what Georgia really wants to do is establish the run game and march along the ground, very similarly to what we’ve seen from the Wolverines in 2021. While Georgia boasts the 3rd ranked SP+ offense, they have earned that slot versus good-not-great defensive units. Here are the top 5 SP+ defensive units on the Bulldogs’ schedule this year, with Georgia’s offensive points scored in parentheses: #3 Clemson (3); #10 Alabama (24); #21 Auburn (34); #27 Alabama-Birmingham (49); #34 Arkansas (30). There is reason to believe that Michigan’s 7th-ranked defense can hold up against the Georgia run game. Then the Bulldogs’ offensive tackles will be challenged to block both Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo on passing downs.
PREDICTION: Both teams will show their commitment to battling it out in the trenches via the run game, and I think both defenses will maintain the upper hand. The early stalemate feeling may feel frustrating, but I would call that success for Michigan. For most of Georgia’s season, they raced in front of teams via explosive plays, and then leaned on their historically tough defense. Michigan has been in more gut-check moments in 2021, and should relish a close game in the 4th quarter. At that point, I believe it will be up to the unheralded quarterbacks. Stetson Bennett has a running element to his game that makes him dangerous, but I think Cade McNamara will show his mental toughness one more time and make the play the Wolverines need. Michigan 25 Georgia 24
Final Score: 42-3, Michigan by 39 over Iowa SP+ Projection: Michigan by 11.1 (+27.9) CD Projection: Michigan by 18 (+21)
FIVE FACTORS
GAME 13 RECAP vs. Iowa (Big Ten Championship)
Football is an emotional sport. It’s very difficult to play the game well without wearing all your passion on your sleeve. However, you have to harness that emotional power. Players have to use their emotion as fuel.
Coaching football is a very interesting high wire act. You have to inspire your players to bring the maximum emotional energy, but you yourself have to try to stay balanced. You have to be a model of how to wield that control over your emotions. Coaches love to preach about not getting too high, or too low. Peaks and valleys ideally have very little space between them, in a coach’s eyes.
Being a fan is almost the inverse of all that. It is pure unbridled emotion all the time. It’s constant emotional escalation, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. The valleys get excavated to greater depths. The mountains are stacked upon to push the peaks higher into the stratosphere.
I try to be much closer to objective than most fans. It helps me modulate my own emotion to dive into the numbers immediately. In the press box, I don’t know how well I could contain myself if I wasn’t plunking away on my keyboard recording the play data. That is why this recap is coming out the day AFTER the Big Ten Championship game. Last night, I couldn’t focus on the numbers. I was up in the clouds with the rest of the Wolverines. Sorry, not sorry.
Offensively, Michigan was near perfectly balanced. With garbage time removed, the play calls were 50/50 run to pass. Michigan amassed 461 total yards: 250 yards passing (54%) and 211 yards rushing (46%).
Hassan Haskins carried most of the workload with 17 carries, but it was the Zoom half of the #BoomAndZoom combo that set the pace. Blake Corum kicked off the scoring with a 67 yard touchdown run in the first quarter.
Donovan Edwards followed that up on the next offensive snap on the ensuing drive. Edwards caught a swing pass on the edge, and then uncorked a beautiful 46 yard spiral to Roman Wilson for a 75-yard touchdown.
Iowa showed a lot of guts by staying in the fight and battling through the entire 2nd quarter, and most of the 3rd. But eventually the dam broke and 21 points came like a tidal wave in the 4th quarter.
On defense, Michigan made the key plays when they had to. Aidan Hutchinson was relentless for the entire game, and earned Big Ten Championship Game MVP honors for his efforts: 1 sack and 7 QB pressures.
Josh Ross led the Wolverines with 9 tackles while Michigan absolutely strangled the Iowa rushing attack. The Hawkeyes could only muster an 18% Success Rate on run plays, with garbage time removed. They ended with 32 carries for 114 sack-adjusted yards, 3.5 yards per carry,
The special teams units put the cherry on top of the championship sundae. Brad Robbins flipped the field as Iowa was grasping for their last breath in the 3rd quarter. His 64-yard punt moved the ball from Michigan’s 13 yard line to the Iowa 23 yard line. The Hawkeyes never moved back into Michigan territory.
After that next Iowa possession, Jay Harbaugh unleashed another punt block. Cornelius Johnson, the Wolverines’ leading receiver of the season, blocked his 2nd punt of the year. A couple JJ McCarthy runs, a Cade McNamara dime, and a Haskins plunge finished off the sequence to provide a perfect microcosm of Michigan’s brand of complementary football.
Kudos to the Michigan Football program. The players have been a joy to watch. The coaches had to envision this path before it could be reality. Aidian Hutchinson spoke in the post game about the connection between Michigan’s 42 points and Oxford HS junior Tate Myre’s #42 jersey. “God works in mysterious ways,” said Hutchinson. I pray we can all pull together like this program has. They have been a true inspiration.
Hail! To the Victors: the 2021 Michigan Wolverines, the greatest Michigan football team of this generation.
