Tag: Analysis

Posted on

Michigan 29 Michigan State 7 – Game 8 Recap

GAME 8 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 29-7, Michigan by 22 over Michigan State
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 22.4 (-0.4)
CD Projection: Michigan by 28 (-6)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 8 RECAP vs. Michigan State

How do you define a bitter rivalry? I will start with a 22-point victory that feels unsatisfying because there wasn’t enough ass-kicking. Then you can add a physical brawl in the tunnel after the game. Coaches are complaining about one tunnel. Maybe the young men IN the tunnel need to add some steel to their spine and take their L with some dignity.

Podcast- Michigan 29 Michigan State 7

The big stat for the offense is 60% success rate, with garbage time removed. Anything 45% or better is a pretty good showing. The Wolverines racked up 276 rushing yards with a 5.3 yards/carry average. The building concern is centered on red-zone touchdown conversion. I think that is a fair concern, but I would also like to see Michigan stretch the field vertically more often once they cross the 50 yard line.

The defensive staff is establishing a clear pattern of 2nd half dominance. After securing a 13-7 half time lead, the Wolverines came out and choked out the Spartans in the 3rd quarter, allowing just a 17% success rate. For three straight drives, MSU started on their own 25 yard line, advanced four yards, and punted on 4th & 6 from the 29 yard line.

The clear star of the game was Jake Moody. We have seen this before, and this guy earned his nickname: “Money”. Moody was 5-5 on FG attempts, and pounded four touchbacks and a fair catch on his kick offs. The Spartans had their own trouble with a punt snap, and the 3rd quarter SNAFU, followed by a 4 yard touchdown run by Blake Corum, proved to be the back breaker. Onward to New Jersey to battle the Rutgers Scarlet Knights!

2022-08-Michigan-29-MSU-7-StatsDownload
Posted on

Michigan 34 Maryland 27 – Game 4 Recap

GAME 4 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 34-27, Michigan by 7 over Maryland
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 18.5 (-11.5)
CD Projection: Michigan by 25 (-18)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 4 RECAP vs. Maryland

Maybe there is something about the B1G opener in week 4 that stifles the Wolverines. Last year 3-0 Rutgers made us all nervous. This year, the previously undefeated Maryland Terrapins provided the scare.

Blake Corum will dominate the headlines for the second consecutive week. After scoring five touchdowns versus the UConn Huskies last week, Corum finished with 243 yards and two touchdowns this week, the most rushing yards from a Michigan running back since the Biakabatuka 313 game in 1995. The Wolverines needed his heroics, since JJ McCarthy was not as accurate through the air in this one. McCarthy finished 18-of-26 for 220 yards and two touchdowns, but missed at least a handful of receivers downfield.

Michigan 34 Maryland 27 Postgame Press Conference Highlights

The matchup for the Michigan defense was much more intriguing headed into this game. Maryland QB Taulia Tagovailoa was true to his historical form, showing flashes of brilliance mixed in with unforced errors. Junior Colson led the Wolverines with 13 tackles on a busy day of stopping inside runs. Maryland rushed 12 times for 63 yards in the first quarter (5.3 yards/rush). After Jesse Minter was able to adjust, the Terps managed just 65 more yards on 22 carries the rest of the way (3.0 yards/rush).

Both teams came into this game with strong special teams units, but neither squad had a great day. Jake Moody missed a 43-yard FG attempt well left, but did knock down a 38-yarder & a 52-yarder. However, Maryland was much more severely impacted when Tai Felton had the opening kickoff bounce off his facemask and the Wolverines jumped on it. One snap later Michigan had taken a 7-0 lead just 0:08 into the contest.

Michigan will travel for the first time in 2022 as they head to Iowa City to face an even tougher Hawkeye defense. Onward!

2022-04-Michigan-34-Maryland-27-StatsDownload
Posted on

Michigan 59 UConn 0 – Game 3 Recap

GAME 3 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 59-0, Michigan by 59 over UConn
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 50.8 (+8.2)
CD Projection: Michigan by 45 (+14)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 3 RECAP vs. UConn

This was the third consecutive sharp performance for Michigan in all three phases of the game.

Blake Corum snagged the headline this week with five rushing touchdowns. JJ McCarthy nearly duplicated his performance from a week ago, completing 15 of 18 passes for 214 yards. Probably the most important aspect of this game was a solid performance from Ronnie Bell. Bell had 7 receptions for 96 yards. He still looks very fast and shifty after the catch, and nearly pulled in another one-handed circus catch in the end zone in the first half.

Michigan 59 UConn 0 Postgame Press Conference Highlights

The defense finally got their shutout this week. In the first two games the backups gave up meaningless scores, but today the Wolverines protected the goose egg. Junior Colson and Kris Jenkins led the way with five tackles each. Mike Sainristil continues to flash some greatness after switching to DB from WR. He added three tackles, with one Tackle For Loss (TFL). In total, UConn could only muster 110 total yards for the game, and picked up just six first downs.

The special teams returned to stellar form after a so-so performance last week. AJ Henning cashed in a 61-yard punt return touchdown. This is the first punt return TD since 2018 when Donovan Peoples-Jones found pay dirt. Jay Harbaugh also drew up a punt block, and senior special teams ace Caden Kolesar delivered by getting a hand on the ball.

This team is firing on all cylinders, but all of the weak opponent caveats apply to all three games. Let’s see how the Big House can get rocking when the Maryland Terrapins come into town next weekend to kick off the B1G conference schedule. Onward!

2022-03-Michigan-59-UConn-0-StatsDownload
Posted on

Michigan 56 Hawai’i 10 – Game 2 Recap

You’ve got to pump it up!

GAME 2 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 56-10, Michigan by 46 over Hawai’i
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 54.6 (-8.6)
CD Projection: Michigan by 54 (-8)

FIVE FACTORS (Garbage Time Removed)

GAME 2 RECAP vs. Hawai’i

The story is the QB competition…again. Last week Jim Harbaugh was thrust into the spotlight for criticism of his “unfairness”. This week, people are singing a different tune. In the preseason, and still leading up to this game, my feeling was that Cade would still be the starter in 2022, with an increased role for JJ. Those feelings have changed.

JJ McCarthy truly seized his opportunity to prove he should be the starting QB. McCarthy went 11-12 for 229 yards and three touchdowns. The one incompletion was an inexplicable drop by Ronnie Bell. My questions were all centered around JJ running the full passing playbook, not just the read-option series. He did that today, and looked masterful. With all that said, I expect JJ to start again next week. And, I also expect Cade to get a significant number of snaps to work through the funk he’s in. There will be a role for McNamara on this team. But right now the offense looks much smoother with JJ McCarthy at the helm.

The starters were overpowering again in Week 2, but didn’t fill up the stat sheet in the same way. The Wolverines only collected 1 sack against the Rainbow Warriors, and forced 0 turnovers. However, Hawai’i’s first half drive results were an Iowa fever dream: Punt, Punt, Punt, Punt, Punt, Punt, Punt, Punt, End of the Half. Well done, Jesse Minter.

Special Teams were surprisingly pedestrian. The “hidden yards” are really hidden deep in a 46-point blowout. But Brad Robbins averaged just 41 yards on four punts. AJ Henning looked explosive on an early 35-yard return, but still seems a little shaky reading the ball in the air and catching the punt before it bounces. I have faith in Jay Harbaugh and the rest of the special teams, and we’ll see AJ Henning as a weapon on punt return more than once this season.

All in all this went according to script. It was a fun game, but never should have gone past the midnight hour. AND, don’t even get me started on skipping the tradition of touching M Club banner in pre-game to save time. That was an unforced error by the admin.

2022-Game-2-Michigan-59-Hawaii-10-StatsDownload
Posted on

By the Numbers: Game 2 vs. Hawaii

The Wolverines cleared the first hurdle of the 2022 season vs. Colorado State

LAST WEEK RECAP

The defense was dominant, and 84 players logged snaps in Michigan’s season-opening
51-7 romp over Colorado State.

NEXT UP: vs. Hawaii: 128th, -26.0

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 54.6, Michigan Win Probability 100% (rounded)
This is the largest SP+ spread I’ve seen since I started tracking in 2018. I don’t think 100% win probability is technically possible, but it must be 99.5% or higher for Connelly’s numbers to round to 100%.

Michigan Offense (6th) vs. Hawaii Defense (130th)
There are 131 FBS teams, so the Rainbow Warriors can take solace in being slightly less of a disaster than Florida International on defense. All eyes will be on JJ McCarthy’s performance as he takes his turn to start at QB. The weakness of the Hawaii defense does not figure to give Michigan’s coaching staff a really good read on who is better prepared between McCarthy and Cade McNamara. In week 3, the UConn Huskies bring the 119th SP+ rated defense to Ann Arbor, so please take what we see with the necessary grains of salt.

Michigan Defense (10th) vs. Hawaii Offense (115th)
This figures to look a lot like the Wolverines’ dominance of Colorado State. Hawaii is also going to deploy a pass-heavy attack, but without the necessary pass protection up front. For now, Timmy Chang’s air raid offense is appropriately named, but mostly because his quarterback Brayden Schager is going to feel he’s under attack.

PREDICTION: The QB competition will again monopolize the headlines. I am hoping the Michigan crowd can stay positive and encourage both players. In the Big House last Saturday there was a shortage of patience with Cade. The throngs of people are eager to see JJ McCarthy claim the starting job. We’ll see how the sophomore handles the full range of QB duties. I am optimistic that he will show a few flashes of greatness.
Michigan 60 Hawaii 6 (PRESEASON Michigan 56 Hawaii 9)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (9/9/2022)

SP+ Overall: 4th ( ↑2), 26.1
SP+ Offense: 6th (same), 41.8
SP+ Defense: 10th ( ↑7), 15.8

AP Poll: 4th ( ↑4), 1,299

Coaches’ Poll: 5th ( ↑1), 1,333

CFP Rank: N/A