Tag: Analysis

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Michigan 21 Penn State 17 – Game 10 Recap

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GAME 10 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 21-17, Michigan by 4 over Penn State
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 1.8 (+2.2)
CD Projection: Michigan by 6 (-2)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 10 RECAP @ Penn State

Michigan did not play their best game of the season, but managed to claim their biggest victory to date, 21-17 over the Penn State Nittany Lions. In baseball, you can compliment a pitcher after a similar performance when he is able to get a win without his “best stuff”. I would say this game serves the same purpose for me. I think even higher of this 2021 Michigan Football team because they were able to win a big game, in a legit road atmosphere, even though the Wolverines had to fight some headwind.

Offensively, the Wolverines were led by all-world running back Hassan Haskins. Haskins carried the ball 31 times for 156 yards (5.0 ypc). He added 5 catches for another 45 yards also.

While H2 was doing a lot of heavy lifting on the ground, the Five Factors metrics point to a less successful day than Michigan has been accustomed to this year. Michigan only managed a 38% Success Rate on run plays. This is just the 2nd time in 2021 that the average Expected Points Added (EPA) on run plays was below zero.

One main reason for this was a stuffed run attempt on 4th & 2 in the 2nd quarter. That turnover on downs was worth -4.150 EPA. The remaining run plays averaged an EPA of +0.074.

Again, Cade McNamara showed his poise and leadership in big moments for the Michigan offense. All 3 touchdowns came via the pass. McNamara was 19-of-29 (65.5%) for 217 yards to go with the 3 TDs.

In stark contrast to the called run plays, the Wolverines averaged an EPA of +0.342 on called pass plays. Erick All collected his first career touchdown reception, and it was an even he’ll never forget. All snatched McNamara’s pass on a shallow crossing route and outran the PSU defense 47 yards to the end zone for the go-ahead score in the 4th quarter.

This game was another major test for 1st year defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald. No passing tandem that Michigan has faced to this point is more dangerous than Penn State’s WR Jahan Dotson and QB Sean Clifford.

Heading into the game, many local & national pundits were still reticent to place their confidence in U-M’s secondary. The Wolverines kept a lid on Dotson, allowing 9 catches, but only 61 yards. Sean Clifford finished 23-for-43 (53.5%) for 205 yards and 1 touchdown.

Clifford’s stat line looks very pedestrian, but appeared heroic if you were able to watch the game. Michigan tallied 7 total sacks, and 4 additional hurries. Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo were absolutely impossible to block, again.

This week was also the first time Michigan did not overwhelmingly dominate the special teams phase of the game. That is more a compliment to Penn State than an indictment of the Wolverines. Jake Moody converted 3 PATs, and Brad Robbins averaged 52.4 yards per punt. PSU’s punter/kicker Jordan Stout was also booming punts, averaging 51.0 yards per kick. However, Stout did miss a 42-yard FG attempt in the 3rd quarter.

This was another shining example of Michigan playing complementary football where all 3 phases of the game were picking each other up. The Wolverines will continue to work on converting short yardage opportunities on offense, and the defense has two monster passing attacks coming next. Michigan can still improve a good amount, but this team is capable of playing championship football. Onward!

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By the Numbers: Game 10 @ Penn State

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan rolled in ho-hum fashion over the Indiana Hoosiers.  The Wolverines came out ahead in all of the Five Factors metrics as they collected a 29-7 victory.

NEXT UP: vs. Penn State: 11th, 17.5

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 1.8, Michigan Win Probability 54%
The Wolverines are traveling to Happy Valley in search of their first road victory over Penn State since Jim Harbaugh’s first season in Ann Arbor in 2015.  It is important to note that SP+ does not adjust for injuries.  Some key defenders are missing for PSU, and Michigan may be down a handful of offensive weapons too.

Michigan Offense (17th) vs. Penn State Defense (7th) 

One key injury in this matchup is on the NIttany Lion interior defensive line: PJ Mustipher.  Before Mustipher got hurt, Penn State held opposing rushing attacks to 3.0 yards per carry in 5 out of their first 6 games.  After the injury, Illinois ran for 5.3 yards per carry, and Ohio State ran for 5.1 per carry. 

This should be good news to Josh Gattis’ ears, although Blake Corum will be limited if he’s even available at all.  I am sure the broadcast narrative will highlight red zone efficiency, and Penn State is another great red zone defense.  Michigan may start looking for opportunities to strike from 25-35 yards away through the air.

Michigan Defense (8th) vs. Penn State Offense (47th)

On paper, Michigan’s defensive unit has the most lopsided advantage over the PSU offense.  This all starts and ends with the Penn State offensive line woes.  They are a mediocre pass protecting unit, and have been abysmal in the run game. 

Another handicap for the Nittany Lions is the health of senior QB Sean Clifford.  Clifford has played well even after being injured against Iowa.  However, James Franklin and his staff have seen what life looks like with Clifford on the bench, and they have since chosen to remove Clifford’s ability to run out the game plan for the most part. 

This matchup will be analogous to a heavyweight fight of big-play haymakers between Clifford & Jahan Dotson versus Aidan Hutchinson, David Ojabo, and Dax Hill.  We could be saying “he who laughs last, laughs loudest” during the post-game.

PREDICTION: Even way back in the preseason, I expected Michigan would have their issues pretty much worked out by November.  I predicted the Wolverines to snap their losing skid in Happy Valley back then, and neither team has done anything to make me think any differently now. 

I do think Penn State will play well, and this will be a tight game.  We could be looking at a second half reminiscent of the 2019 game.  The defense will strangle the Nittany Lion offense for long stretches, but Michigan cannot let Clifford and Dotson make the big plays in high leverage moments late in this game, a la 2019 KJ Hamler. 
Michigan 27 Penn State 21 (PRESEASON Michigan 20 Penn State 16)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/09/21), 8-1

  • SP+ Overall: 5th (same), 21.8
  • SP+ Offense: 17th (↑1), 36.1
  • SP+ Defense: 8th (same), 14.9
  • SP+ Special Teams: 2nd (↑1), 0.6

AP Poll: 9th (same), 1,072

Coaches’ Poll: 8th (↓2), 1,099

CFP Rank: 6th (↑1)

U-M Resume after Game #9
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Michigan 29 Indiana 7 – Game 9 Recap

GAME 9 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 29-7, Michigan by 22 over Indiana
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 17.9 (+4.1)
CD Projection: Michigan by 22 (✅)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 9 RECAP vs. Indiana

That was a clean sweep on the Five Factors for Michigan. Those games usually result in a ho-hum response from the media and from fans. However, that is exactly what this team needed. They played to their strengths, tried to answer a few questions from previous weeks, and rolled to a 3-score victory.

Offensively, Hassan Haskins stepped forward to carry this team once again. Haskins had 168 yards on 27 carries, both career highs. H2 was without his normal running mate, as Blake Corum only played a handful of snaps before retreating to the locker room for further evaluation of an injury.

Also, Cade McNamara showed that he is still the right QB to lead this unit. He completed 10-of-18 passes for 168 yards and 2 touchdowns. Josh Gattis clearly wanted to return to a balanced approach with his run game and passing attack. The play calls were 50/50, and yardage was almost equal as well.

The Michigan defense was back to being dominant for large swaths of this game. Outside of one drive where Indiana QB Donaven McCulley broke tackles and scrambled for big plays, the Wolverines really suffocated the Hoosiers. Indiana finished with just 195 total net yards for the whole game. While the defense bottled up the IU rushing attack (average 0.036 Expected Points Added per play), the Wolverines really attacked Indiana when they dropped back to pass. The Hoosiers’ pass plays averaged a negative EPA on the day, -0.129.

Jake Moody led the special teams unit, and cashed in another 3 field goals today. While his kickoffs were high and short, Indiana wanted no part of testing the coverage units. The return game was particularly impacted by injuries in this one. AJ Henning and Andrel Anthony both were dinged up in addition to Corum. DJ Turner filled in as the next man up returning punts. Onward to Happy Valley!

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By the Numbers: Game 9 vs. Indiana

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines let a 16-point lead slip through their fingers in East Lansing during a painful 37-33 loss to the Spartans.  Michigan did many positive things against Michigan State, but just couldn’t come up with the critical plays in high leverage moments.

NEXT UP: vs. Indiana: 61st, 5.3

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 17.9, Michigan Win Probability 85%
Indiana has crashed back to earth after living a charmed existence in 2020 as everyone’s favorite COVID team.  QB Michael Penix can’t stay healthy, and the Hoosiers have also lost their best defensive coverage guys to injury.  

Michigan Offense (18th) vs. Indiana Defense (41st) 

SP+ does not adjust for injured players who are missing, and that is the story of Indiana’s defense.  Their defensive backfield looked elite coming into the 2021 season.  However, they are hobbled by major injuries, most notably to cornerback Taiwan Mullen.  This matchup feels similar to how the Wolverines lined up with the Washington Huskies back in Week 2, except Indiana has lost their best cover guys.  I will be concerned if Michigan struggles for more than a series or two with their starters in this game.

Michigan Defense (8th) vs. Indiana Offense (74th)

Mike MacDonald and the Wolverine defense need a get right game.  The Hoosiers should be just what the doctor ordered.  Former Michigan backup QB Nick Sheridan has been uninspiring as offensive coordinator in Bloomington.  I don’t believe Indiana will be able to protect their own backup QB Donaven McCulley.  Indiana has come up with troublesome game plans in years past, though.  I expect the Hoosiers will attempt to exploit the Wolverines’ alignment issues versus tempo that proved to be fatal last week in East Lansing. 

PREDICTION:  Michigan will be challenged again to focus on the task at hand without looking ahead.  Nearly every matchup on paper is a sizable advantage for the Wolverines, and they are 3 touchdown favorites.  The team will not be able to disprove their most vocal doubters against this under-manned Hoosier team.  The goal must be to clean up the personnel issues on defense.  We also want to see confidence continue to build on offense.  Cade McNamara is coming off his best performance.  Now, Michigan fans would love to see a full, completely balanced performance from both the passing and rushing attacks.  I believe we’ll see continued success in terms of yardage, but this probably won’t be the game where Josh Gattis answers the red zone touchdown questions.

Michigan 32 Indiana 10 (PRESEASON Michigan 25 Indiana 17)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (10/31/21), 7-1

  • SP+ Overall: 5th (↑2), 20.8
  • SP+ Offense: 22nd 18th (same), 35.9
  • SP+ Defense: 8th (same), 15.7
  • SP+ Special Teams: 3rd (same), 0.6

AP Poll: 9th (↓3), 1,048

Coaches’ Poll: 10th (↓4), 1,050

CFP Rank: 7th

U-M Resume after Game 8
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Michigan 33 MSU 37 – Game 8 Recap

GAME 8 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 33-37, MSU by 4 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 3.5 (-7.5)
CD Projection: Michigan by 10 (-14)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 8 RECAP @ MSU

It was incomplete. All of it. Any facet of this game that you look at, there is a lot more good to talk about than there is bad. But, Michigan didn’t finish. The game plans on both sides were solid, but didn’t adjust once the Wolverines were up 16 in the 3rd quarter and MSU had to empty the clip.

Offensively, Michigan got off to a rocket start by surprising everyone with a first-half passing clinic. Andrel Anthony burst onto the scene with a 93-yard touchdown, and Cade McNamara was pin-point accurate.

When the Wolverines pushed it to a 30-14 lead, I assumed Michigan would salt this away. The only questions was whether Haskins or Corum would be the one hammering. Somehow, that didn’t happen. This was the first negative EPA run performance of 2021, and it deserves a much closer look. There would be a lot on this film to be excited about offensively, if Paul B. was on the bus back to Ann Arbor. But…he ain’t.

It was sickening to listen to the FOX broadcast team highlight Mel Tucker’s pregame quote: “…body blows…In the championship round, we think they’ll flinch…” It was sickening because it was happening in front of our eyes. Defenders got out of the run gaps, and Kenneth Walker made us all pay. Interceptions were there to be had, yet hit the turf instead.

When a 2nd half lead evaporates, I always want to see under the hood on defense first. Regardless of the detail, the Wolverines could not limit the big plays the way Indiana and Nebraska did previously to the Spartans.

On special teams, Jake Moody gets a huge tip of my cap. He was 4/4 on field goals, including repeatedly hitting them at the end of the 1st half when Mel Tucker tried to ice him with all three timeouts. Additionally, the MSU return game was satisfied with Fair Catches and Touchbacks. Brad Robbins mishandled a punt snap (yikes!), but the defense managed to cover for him.

AJ Henning was solid returning the ball, but really hurt field position in the 2nd quarter when he let a punt bounce and roll. Still work to do in all three phases.

There will be a lot of bluster and big talking this week. Michigan needs to get right against Indiana and play well in all 3 phases. No Michigan team should ever shrivel in the face of adversity. Still a lot to play for. We’ll see how this version of the Wolverines manages to dig deep. Onward!

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