Tag: Analysis

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By the Numbers: Game 8 @ Michigan State

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan handled their business by avoiding the classic trap game coming out of the bye week.  The Wolverines dominated statistically en route to a 33-7 victory.

NEXT UP: vs. Michigan State: 21st, 13.6

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 3.5, Michigan Win Probability 58%
There was a mild flare up online when the line for this game settled at Michigan (-4.5).  For yet another week, the Vegas spread is very close to the SP+ projection.  Through 7 games in 2021, Bill Connelly’s model is 5-2 against the opening spread in Michigan games.

Michigan Offense (18th) vs. Michigan State Defense (12th) 

When Michigan has the ball, this game will feel like the prototypical U-M vs MSU rivalry game.  The Wolverines are going to run the ball inside and out, and the Spartans are well aware of this.  For large portions of the contest I am sure this will be a gritty battle in the trenches.  I have very little doubt that Josh Gattis will basically say “here we come, try to stop us” as a base strategy.  Despite all that, the game may largely be decided on the handful of plays that Michigan State sells out to stop the Wolverine running game, and Josh Gattis dials up his counterattack.  Cade McNamara must be efficient and seize those opportunities for big chunk plays down the field.  

Michigan Defense (9th) vs. Michigan State Offense (53rd)

Michigan State’s offense has proven to be explosive in 2021.  Kenneth Walker has been electric running the ball.  Payton Thorne connects consistently with Jayden Reed and Jaylen Nailor on the outside.  Those two WRs have combined for 11 touchdown receptions through 7 games.  However, both Nebraska and Indiana were able to effectively bottle up this Spartan offense.  Michigan State managed to gain just 254 total yards in Week 4 versus the Cornhuskers.  The Hoosiers’ defense fared even better, holding MSU to only 241 total yards just before the Spartans took their week off.  The challenge for Mike MacDonald will be keeping all of the Spartan playmakers inside and in front of his defenders.  If the Wolverines’ DBs don’t get beat over the top, and can avoid giving away conversions via penalty, I trust Michigan’s edge defenders to keep Walker contained inside.

PREDICTION:  The 2021 battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy is the most anticipated chapter of the game in my lifetime.  Both teams are undefeated heading into the game for the first time since 1999, when UMGoBlue.com first appeared on dial up internet.  In many ways, these teams are very similar.  As is usually the case, Saturday’s victor will be decided by which players step up in key moments and can deliver big time plays.  All things considered, I believe Michigan will wear down the Spartans and take control of this game in the 2nd half.  Prepare yourself for an emotional rollercoaster as Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines are trading haymakers (figuratively of course) with Mel Tucker’s Spartans.
Michigan 31 Michigan State 21 (same as preseason)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (10/24/21), 7-0

  • SP+ Overall: 7th (↑1), 19.6
  • SP+ Offense: 22nd 18th (↓4), 34.9
  • SP+ Defense: 8th (↑1), 15.9
  • SP+ Special Teams: 3rd (↓1), 0.6

AP Poll: 6th (same), 1,270

Coaches’ Poll: 6th (same), 1,313

CFP Rank: N/A

U-M Resume after Game 7
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Michigan 33 Northwestern 7 – Game 7 Recap

GAME 7 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 33-7, Michigan by 26 over Northwestern
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 21.6 (+4.4)
CD Projection: Michigan by 31 (-5)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 7 RECAP vs. Northwestern

This was definitely not the clean performance we wanted, but it’s not grounds for panic either. The Wolverines dominated nearly every statistical category. Yet, the whole game still felt somehow disjointed. It felt like the Wolverines were trying to stay balanced on offense, while grabbing another week for a few players to rest. On defense, Michigan dominated, outside of one really horrific bust in the run game.

Offensively, Michigan was aggressive in pushing the ball down the field in the pass game early. However, the deep shots missed their targets both into the wind and with the wind helping. The Wolverines racked up another 300 yards rushing (removing sack yardage). Somehow, it never quite felt like Michigan was steamrolling Northwestern despite all the yards. In the grand scheme, this game boiled down to continuously moving the chains and keeping the offense on the field. Michigan ran 87 plays (including garbage time) compared to just 55 for the Wildcats.

Northwestern was able to find a couple holes in the Michigan defense today. However, Mike MacDonald and the defensive staff were able to close those holes quickly. The most egregious bust came in the 2nd quarter when Evan Hull zipped up the middle for a 75-yard touchdown run, untouched. Outside of that highlight for the Wildcats, the Wolverine defenders strangled Northwestern to just a 28% Success Rate and 233 total yards.

Another Michigan blocked punt highlighted the special teams effort in this one. Cornelius Johnson capitalized on a new opportunity to contribute and smothered the Northwester punter. The result was a drive starting at the NW 24 yard line, and led to the touchdown that allowed Michigan to seize control for good.

All attention now turns to East Lansing, where 7-0 Michigan will invade to take on the 7-0 Spartans for the Paul Bunyan trophy and for early control of the Big Ten East division race. Onward!

2021-Game-7-Michigan-33-Northwestern-7-Final-StatsDownload
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By the Numbers: Game 7 vs. Northwestern

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LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines are coming off a bye that followed their second consecutive road victory.  The latest victory was a 32-29 nail-biter that included a little bit of everything.  We saw diving catches, interceptions, and hurdled defenders, but also bad reads and blown coverages.

NEXT UP: vs. Northwestern: 77th, 1.0

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 21.6, Michigan Win Probability 89%

Vegas lines have again landed close to SP+ model projections.  I recorded the opening line at Michigan -21.5 on Sunday, so SP+ would have chosen Michigan by 0.1 point.  The line has moved to Michigan -23.5, so Bill Connelly has recorded the pick against the spread for Northwestern. Regardless, the Wolverines will need to avoid the proverbial trap game stumble with a potential top-ten showdown in East Lansing looming next weekend.  

Michigan Offense (18th) vs. Northwestern Defense (31st) 

The Northwestern defense has traditionally been the strength of the team under Pat Fitzgerald.  However, the 2021 team’s 31st SP+ defensive ranking is very misleading.  Their preseason ranking (12th) is still carrying most of the weight.  Longtime defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz retired after 51(!) seasons of coaching.  Northwestern also ranked dead last 129th in all FBS in returning production overall, and 128th on defense specifically.  All that personnel and leadership turnover has resulted in major issues for the Wildcats, especially in their run fits.  Northwestern has allowed an average of 272 yards rushing to their 3 previous Big Ten opponents. That bodes well for the Wolverines’ rushing attack.  

Michigan Defense (9th) vs. Northwestern Offense (108th)

Michigan’s unit-versus-unit advantage will be even more lopsided when Northwestern has the ball.  The Wildcats have scored less than 25 points in 5 of their 6 games, including just 24 points and 275 yards of total offense against FCS Indiana State.  Northwestern does usually trend upward as the season progresses, and they are coming off a much cleaner performance that resulted in a 21-7 victory at home over Rutgers.  

The Wolverines’ talent advantage should allow Michigan to overwhelm the Wildcats in the trenches.  The one potential troubling matchup will be running back Evan Hull and slot receiver Stephan Robinson against the Michigan linebackers in coverage. 

PREDICTION:  Michigan returns from the bye week trying to stay focused on the task at hand without looking ahead to hugely impactful matchups down the line.  I expect the coaching staff and upperclassmen leadership will be able to keep Northwestern as the primary focus.  

From a game plan standpoint, I think Josh Gattis will return to a heavy dose of running the ball against a pretty porous Northwestern front.  It will be interesting to see how Pat Fitzgerald and his defensive staff decide to load the box, and how Gattis reacts with the passing game going over the top.  

On defense, Michigan will be trying to shore up some of the issues the linebackers have experienced since Big Ten play started.  I expect Michigan will be able to pressure QB Ryan Hillinski with 4 or 5 rushers and may challenge Josh Ross, Nikhai Hill-Green, and Junior Colson to improve their underneath pass coverage.  We’ll see if there is a trend using Hill-Green more on standard downs, and the true freshman Colson seeing his snap count increase on passing downs.
Michigan 41 Northwestern 10 (PRESEASON Michigan 24 Northwestern 20)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (date)

  • SP+ Overall: 8th (same), 20.1
  • SP+ Offense: 18th (↑8), 35.6
  • SP+ Defense: 9th (↑1), 16.1
  • SP+ Special Teams: 2nd (↑1), 0.7

AP Poll: 6th (↑2), 1,214

Coaches’ Poll: 6th (↑1), 1,299

CFP Rank: N/A

U-M Resume after Game #6
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Michigan 32 Nebraska 29 – Game 6 Recap

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GAME 6 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 32-29, Michigan by 3 over Nebraska
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 3.6 (-0.6)
CD Projection: Michigan by 20 (-17)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 6 RECAP @ Nebraska

Michigan fans can learn something from this 2021 Wolverines football team: enjoy the moment! The team is 6-0 heading into the bye week, and not even the most optimistic of us could have guessed that in August.

This group has a clear identity on both sides of the ball. They play hard and execute pretty cleanly, especially on special teams. They are player led, and the coaches augment the players’ positive energy. I am not saying it’s all sunshine and rainbows, but no season is. Embrace the struggle, and celebrate this team that has successfully battled through adversity together.

The offense carried Michigan to the victory today. However, I would also argue they are the main reason the game remained close. The Wolverines had a major efficiency advantage in the first half, and ran 22 more plays than Nebraska did. This ended as a 3-point victory because Michigan could not execute in the red zone and cash in more touchdowns in their 7 (!!) scoring opportunities.

Michigan racked up 219 yards rushing (sack adjusted). The Wolverines were led by Hassan Haskins’ 123 yards rushing (5.9 ypc) and 2 touchdowns. We also witnessed the return of Boom & Zoom in the 4th quarter as Haskins leapt a defender and rumbled 50 yards to set up the game-tying field goal. The drive before that saw Blake Corum zoom around the left end and race untouched into the end zone.

Defensively, Nebraska’s dual threat quarterback gave Michigan fits. Adrian Martinez went 18-of-28 for 291 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT. He also converted a handful of big 3rd downs with his legs on QB draw plays through the middle of the defense.

You have to give the Husker offensive staff a good chunk of credit. They made some very shrewd halftime adjustments. After suffering through a 21% and 17% success rate in the 1st and 2nd quarters, Nebraska bounced back to 65% success rate in the 3rd quarter, and 44% in the 4th. In the biggest moment, however, Michigan senior safety Brad Hawkins stripped Martinez as the QB ran for another 3rd down conversion. The Wolverines recovered the ball and kicked the game-winning field goal.

Once you pat Hassan Haskins on the back, the next game ball probably goes to the kicker Jake Moody. Moody was a perfect 4-for-4 on field goals, including two high-pressure kicks in the 4th quarter. He also blasted every kickoff well through the end zone to force the Cornhuskers to start nearly every drive from their own 25 yard line.

Because the Nebraska offense moved the chains reliably in the second half, we didn’t see many punt returns for AJ Henning. That may have been a blessing in disguise after Henning misjudged his last return attempt and nearly turned the ball over.

All-in-all this goes down as a tremendous team victory on the road against a team who desperately needed to win. Take a breather during the bye week, and get ready to enjoy the 2nd half of this great 2021 season. Onward!

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By the Numbers: Game 6 @ Nebraska

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LAST WEEK RECAP

The players, coaches, and even the fan base are starting to believe in Michigan as a B1G Ten East contender after the Wolverines traveled to Madison and schooled the Badgers 38-17. 

NEXT UP: @ Nebraska: 22nd, 13.5
PREGAME SP+: U-M by 3.6, Michigan Win Probability 58%

The SP+ model and the Vegas betting lines have converged in Week 6 in regard to Michigan.  There is only a 0.1 point difference in the spread, and a 1 point difference in the O/U total projection.  This spread is narrowed significantly by an adjustment for home field advantage.  We’ll see if Michigan can stay sharp on the road for the second consecutive week.  

Michigan Offense (26th) vs. Nebraska Defense (20th) 

The Wolverines are coming off another clean performance against the SP+ #3 defense from Wisconsin.  The Nebraska “black shirt” defense continues to improve, and manages to keep the Cornhuskers in every game they play.  

Michigan will have to deploy a balanced game plan, but I expect Josh Gattis to start the game by testing the interior of Nebraska’s defense.  The onus will be on the Michigan offensive line to create movement against their DL, and on Cade McNamara to make the correct reads and accurate throws on RPO opportunities behind the linebackers.

Michigan Defense (8th) vs. Nebraska Offense (34th)

On paper, the Michigan defense appears to have another significant advantage over Nebraska’s offensive unit.  One particularly lopsided match up will be on the edges of the line of scrimmage.  Aidan Hutchinson, David Ojabo, and the rest of the “Reapers” who play OLB for the  Wolverines will be too much to handle for the Huskers’ offensive tackles.  That means Scott Frost will be leaning heavily on plays that get the ball out of QB Adrian Martinez’ hands quickly as possible.  

More importantly, I think Nebraska will be extremely dependent on Martinez’ legs to move the ball by running option plays.  Surely Michigan is reviewing the film of Noah Vedral causing problems in the 2nd half of the Rutgers game.  Getting a healthy Josh Ross back into the center of the defense to make the calls and pick up formation tendencies will be a huge boost against Frost’s QB run game.

PREDICTION:  The dynamic of this game is very similar to last week as Michigan prepped for a trip to Madison.  You can add in the challenge of sitting around in a hotel all day waiting for a night game.  The atmosphere and crowd will be much more jacked up for this one.  Also, Adrian Martinez presents a much more dangerous dual threat challenge than Graham Mertz last week.   However, Martinez is prone to taking risks with the ball, and making turnover-worthy mistakes multiple times per game.  

Michigan will also leverage a clear advantage in special teams in this game.  Nebraska dropped their game against MSU specifically because of poor punting and punt coverage.  With all that said, the single largest reason that  I am much more confident that Michigan can bring their best performance on the road is the strength of the player leadership on this team makes a significant difference.  Nebraska’s penchant for making critical errors, and my confidence in Michigan’s ability to stay laser focused in the face of adversity make this feel like another multiple score victory for the Wolverines.

Michigan 33 Nebraska 13 (PRESEASON Michigan 42 Nebraska 23)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (10/3/21), 5-0

  • SP+ Overall: 8th (same), 19.7
  • SP+ Offense: 26th (↓9), 34.4
  • SP+ Defense: 8th (same), 15.3
  • SP+ Special Teams: 3rd (↑6), 0.6

AP Poll: 9th (↑5), 1,053

Coaches’ Poll: 8th (↑6), 1,125

CFP Rank: N/A

U-M Resume after Game #5