GAME 1 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS
Final Score: 34-17, Michigan by 17 over New Mexico
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 42 (-25)
CD Projection: Michigan by 28 (-11)
FIVE FACTORS
GAME 1 RECAP vs. New Mexico
That was a very effective first outing for the Michigan newcomers. Bryce Underwood went 21-31 (68%) for 251 yards, 1 touchdown, and no interceptions. Justice Haynes was the star carrying 16 times for 159 yards and 3 touchdowns. All of this with new Offensive Coordinator Chip Lindsey prioritizing balance. The Wolverines actually called more pass plays than run plays in a victory for the first time in a long while. The jury is still out on Michigan’s offensive line. They didn’t have any major gaffes that I picked up on first watch. However, Michigan also had a huge size advantage over the Lobos that never got fully exploited either.
Defensively, we knew the Wolverines would try to get a lot of snaps for a lot of guys. Michigan succeeded there, with at least 8 defensive linemen getting meaningful snaps, and 5 or 6 different defensive backs also rotating in. While New Mexico was able to connect on short passes in front of Michigan’s coverage, the Wolverines tackled well and kept those plays to short gains. The second half targeting call on Jayshawn Barham’s sack really swung the momentum in the building. And, he will have to miss the start of next week’s road game against Oklahoma. The Wolverines’ strength on defense is depth, and we’ll need to see some other playmakers step up next week to fill the void left by Barham.
Dominic Zvada is a special teams superstar, even though the Wolverines didn’t need his heroics today. That’s about the end of my positivity for the special teams units. Semaj Morgan muffed a tough punt catch on the run giving me shades of the Rose Bowl issues. He let most of the remaining punts bounce the rest of the game. Freshman wide receiver Andrew Marsh was stripped on a kick return for a costly turnover that handed New Mexico 3 points directly. Hudson Hollenbeck had his best punt on his last with a 44-yard fair catch. His longest punt was a touchback that netted just 32 yards after a conservative 4th & 1 decision by Sherrone Moore. This phase of the game has to take a few big steps forward for Michigan to play championship level football in 2025.
On the whole, Michigan checked most of the boxes next to their biggest question marks. The moment never got too big for Bryce Underwood tonight. Now we’ll see if he can translate that cool demeanor to a hostile road environment at night. Chip Lindsey showed that he will threaten the entire field through the air, which help create running lanes for Justice Haynes. Michigan showed they can create havoc and pass rush with any personnel combo on the field, which bodes well for keeping your playmakers fresh for big defensive snaps in the 2nd half of games. Onward!
