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Posted on by Clint Derringer

By the Numbers: Game 1 vs. East Carolina

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines finished fall camp to kick off the 2023 season (preview) with sky-high expectations.

NEXT UP: vs. East Carolina: SP+ 87th, -8.7

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 40.9, Michigan Win Probability 99%

Michigan enters the regular season sporting the #3 overall SP+ ranking from Bill Connelly at ESPN.  The Pirates from ECU are a reasonably successful Group of 5 program, but the model expects this to be a laugher.

Michigan Offense (7th) vs. ECU Defense (81st) 

Michigan brings back six starters from the 2022 unit that finished ranked 15th in SP+.  Blake Corum & Donovan Edwards represent the strongest running back room in the country, and the coaching staff believes the entire two-deep on the offensive line is NFL caliber.  The Wolverines’ attack will again be centered on their powerful run game.  However, new QB coach Kirk Campbell & offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore have indicated they want to increase the ratio of pass plays called in 2023.

Fans and analysts alike expect Michigan to get whatever production they want on the ground in this matchup.  The more interesting dynamic will be down the field.  Will senior receiver Roman Wilson see a major increase in targets after stepping in for Ronnie Bell?  Who will emerge at the outside receiver position to join Cornelius Johnson?  How will Kirk Campbell utilize personnel & formations to exploit matchup problems for Donovan Edwards and tight end Colston Loveland? 

The ECU defense will utilize a variety of fronts and coverages in their scheme, which makes the Pirates a good non-conference test for junior quarterback JJ McCarthy.  I am interested to see how much decision making the offensive staff puts on McCarthy’s plate, both pre-snap play adjustments and post-snap option reads.  Ideally, we’ll get to see a few offensive series that rely heavily on the passing game.  If this game gets lopsided, we don’t know how many snaps all the starters will get together.  

Michigan Defense (4th) vs. ECU Offense (93rd)

Defensively, the Wolverines also return six starters from 2022 where they finished ranked 9th in SP+.  Michigan is loaded with experience in the core of their unit, led by defensive tackle Kris Jenkins and bolstered by both Mike Barrett and Junior Colson returning as inside linebackers.  Junior safety Rod Moore, sophomore corner Will Johnson, and sophomore defensive tackle Mason Graham are all poised to make a leap toward All-American status.

The Big House will host the likely debut of ECU’s talented sophomore quarterback Mason Garcia.  While the Pirates lost a majority of their production at the skill positions from last year, they will have experienced players stepping into larger roles.  That experience will be critical to help steady the young quarterback as the Pirates will continue to focus on trying to play mistake-free on offense.

For me, the main matchup focus happens along the edge of the line of scrimmage.  Michigan has question marks about how this defense will generate pressure on the quarterback.  After both Aiden Hutchinson and David Ojabo were drafted into the NFL in spring 2022, Jesse Minter had to rely on overload schemes and blitzing to create havoc last season.  In 2023 Michigan will look to senior Braden McGregor, junior transfer Josiah Stewart, and sophomore Derrick Moore to win more 1-on-1 battles in the pass rush.  The ECU matchup could be advantageous for someone to create some buzz.  Coming out of fall camp, the major questions for ECU seem to center around their offensive tackles.

PREDICTION: Jim Harbaugh will be serving the first of his three-game suspension on Saturday.  Jesse Minter will add head coach responsibilities to his defensive coordinator role.  On offense Kirk Campbell will be the interim play caller while Sherrone Moore also serves a one-game suspension.  To top it all off, recent news rumblings indicate that Michigan may have a handful of injury concerns on both sides of the ball.  

With all of that bad news accounted for, Michigan is fortunate to be able to lean on superstar talent (Corum, McCarthy, Jenkins) as well as impressive depth.  A laundry list of distractions like the one described above is cause for concern.  However, we repeatedly see this group of players excel in their leadership roles.  Somehow, they manage to compartmentalize off-field chaos and focus on their objectives game-by-game.  We might see a few hiccups on Saturday, but I expect to see the Wolverines overwhelm ECU in the opener at the Big House.

Michigan 45 ECU 13 (same as PRESEASON)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 08/16/23, 0-0

  • SP+ Overall: 3rd, 28.6
    • SP+ Offense: 7th, 40.1
    • SP+ Defense: 4th, 11.5
    • SP+ Special Teams: N/A
  • AP Poll: 2nd, 1490
  • Coaches’ Poll: 2nd, 1510
  • CFP Rank: N/A

About Clint Derringer

@clint_derringer on Twitter U-M B.A. Sport Management & Communications ‘05 U-M M.S. Program & Project Management ‘18

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