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By the Numbers: Game 2 vs. UNLV

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan nearly shut out the Pirates of East Carolina, 30-3.  JJ McCarthy had nearly as many touchdown passes (3) as he had incompletions (4), and the defense was dominant despite missing a few stars in the secondary. 

NEXT UP: vs. UNLV: SP+ 93rd, -9.7

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 40.2, Michigan Win Probability 99%
While the Wolverines stayed at #3 in the SP+ for Week 2, the Rebels moved up 17 spots on the back of their 44-14 victory over the FCS Bryant Bulldogs.  Bill Connelly’s model spit out a Week 2 Michigan prediction (M 45-5) that is almost exactly the same as the Week 1 prediction (45-4).

Michigan Offense (11th) vs. UNLV Defense (100th) 

The Wolverines will look to maintain balance between run & pass play calling in 2023.  Michigan was quicker to adjust the game plan last week when ECU clearly sold out to stop the run.  Kirk Campbell turned the reins over to JJ McCarthy as soon a field position allowed on the second possession.  In addition to utilizing multiple receiving targets, Michigan will look to test the edge more frequently this week.  This should provide more points of comparison at both tackle positions.  We expect to see two new starters against UNLV: Trente Jones and Ladarius Henderson. 

The Rebels’ base defense is a  3-3-5, similar to what Michigan saw recently versus TCU and East Carolina.  While I expect UNLV will try to duplicate the TCU/ECU game plan that held Michigan’s run game in check, I don’t believe they will be successful to the same degree.  This UNLV unit just gave up 400+ yards of offense to FCS-level Bryant in Week 1.  Despite ceding all that yardage, UNLV managed to tighten up inside their own 40 yard line and only allowed 14 points.  For Michigan, the key metric this week will be points per scoring opportunity.

Michigan Defense (3rd) vs. UNLV Offense (89th)

UNLV runs an uncommon system called the Go-Go offense.  My oversimplified description: it’s a shotgun two-back system that relies heavily on option-style runs that include the quarterback.  While they will churn up most of their yardage on the ground, the passing game goes for the jugular by pushing the ball vertically on sporadic deep shots.  By now you probably have heard that Saturday also marks the return of Ricky White, the former Spartan wide receiver who showed loads of deep ball prowess in the Big House in 2020.  

While Michigan will have a talent advantage in the trenches, I am most encouraged by how clean the three top linebackers played last week.  Chris Partridge’s group will need to be sound in their assignments and run fits to stop this rushing attack.  The Wolverines may also welcome the return of corner Will Johnson and possibly safety Rod Moore to extend a talent advantage on the perimeter.

PREDICTION: Jay Harbaugh will assume head coaching duties in the first half, and Mike Hart will take over in the second half while Jim Harbaugh serves the second of his three-game suspension Saturday.  Michigan also adds offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore back to the sideline after a one game suspension.  Switching head coaches mid-game seems like an unnecessary risk to me.  However, I am confident the return of Moore as a play caller and as the OL coach will make Game 2 a net positive for the staff. 

UNLV started the 2023 season ranked 110th overall in SP+.  By the end of this season, I think this team may get up near the top half of FBS teams.  The Rebels will be interesting to watch all season, but they are not ready defensively to stop a balanced Michigan attack. 

I am reducing my expected points scored from my preseason estimate due to the new clock rules.  Both teams will feature plenty of run plays, and we might see both teams run fewer than 70 total plays in the game.  It’s critical to avoid huge mistakes on special teams and stay even in turnover margin to remove any thoughts of an upset.  I expect Michigan will almost cover the 36-point spread, but not quite.  
Michigan 40 UNLV 7 (PRESEASON Michigan 52 UNLV 6)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/05/23, 1-0

  • SP+ Overall: 3rd (same), 28.0
    • SP+ Offense: 11th (↓4), 38.3
    • SP+ Defense: 3rd (↑1), 10.4
    • SP+ Special Teams: 40th, 0.1
  • AP Poll: 2nd (same), 1485
  • Coaches’ Poll: 2nd (same), 1534
  • CFP Rank: N/A

About Clint Derringer

@clint_derringer on Twitter U-M B.A. Sport Management & Communications ‘05 U-M M.S. Program & Project Management ‘18