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Michigan 45 Ohio State 23 – Game 12 Recap

GAME 12 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 45-23, Michigan by 22 over Ohio State
SP+ Projection: Ohio State by 6.0 (+28)
CD Projection: Michigan by 3 (+19)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 12 RECAP @ Ohio State

Offensively, this is by far the most explosive performance for Michigan that I have ever tracked (back to 2016), against ANY opponent. The Wolverines’ 2.20 IsoPPP (a metric that measures how explosive just the successful plays are) is 38% higher than the 2nd highest mark in the 2022 season. Michigan’s season-long success on the ground forced the Ohio State defensive coordinator, Jim Knowles, to sell out 100% against the run. JJ McCarthy and Cornelius Johnson kept Michigan afloat in the first half by exploiting that aggressive plan. Then, in the 2nd half, the offensive line and Donovan Edwards left no doubt about who is in control. Edwards streaked for a 75-yard touchdown and an 85-yard touchdown to send the Buckeye fans packing in the 4th quarter.

After Mike MacDonald left in the offseason, Jim Harbaugh reportedly asked candidates how they would plan to stop both the Buckeyes and the Spartans. Today we finally got to see how Jesse Minter answered that question, and why he was selected to be the D Coordinator. Ohio State’s top-ranked pass offense was contained to gathering meaningless yards in the middle of the field. When push came to shove, CJ Stroud and company could not find the end zone. The Buckeyes settled for a meager 3.2 points per trip into scoring position. Ryan Day was also timid on 4th down calls after getting stuffed on an early aggressive decision. Take a bow, Mr. Minter!

Brad Robbins returned to his normal form as he pushed his net punting average back up over 40 yards per kick in this game. That was still 6 yards behind his counterpart from Ohio, but glad to see Robbins back to his old self. Jake Moody converted a 1st quarter attempt as Michigan weathered the storm, but couldn’t quite muster enough juice for a 57-yarder in the 4th quarter.

So now The Rivalry flips in favor of the Maize & Blue. This 2022 version of The Game felt like the inverse of the 2019 version (56-27 OSU). In both cases, the better team won. Both game scores were somewhat close into the 2nd half, but really stretched out late. And, in both cases, the 2nd best team on the field is left wondering whether they can just tweak a few things, or if they need to undergo a major overhaul. ONWARD to the B1G Championship Game!

About Clint Derringer

@clint_derringer on Twitter U-M B.A. Sport Management & Communications ‘05 U-M M.S. Program & Project Management ‘18