Tag: SP+

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By the Numbers: Game 14 vs. Georgia – Orange Bowl (CFP SF)

LAST GAME RECAP

The Wolverines jumped out in front of Iowa and never looked back as they eventually steamrolled the Hawkeyes 42-3 to win the Big Ten Championship in Indianapolis.

NEXT UP: vs. Georgia: 1st, 31.7 

PREGAME SP+: Georgia by 5.8, Michigan Win Probability 37%

With this being the Orange Bowl, taking place in Miami at a true neutral site, the projection is the difference between the two teams’ SP+ ratings.  The Vegas line has stayed pretty steady at Georgia (-7), so the SP+ model picks the Dawgs to win, but Michigan to cover.

Michigan Offense (16th) vs. Georgia Defense (1st) 

Josh Gattis is the freshly awarded Broyles Award winner, given to the top assistant coach in the nation.  Gattis’ last three game plans have been works of football art.  Michigan’s offensive Success Rate (garbage time removed) in the last three games: 60% @ Maryland; 72% vs. Ohio State; 48% vs. Iowa.  Perhaps more importantly, since identifying their struggles to finish drives in the mid-season, the Wolverines are now averaging 5.0 points per scoring attempt, and have been 6.0+ in their last 4 games.  

This Georgia defense is a whole other beast, though.  Before giving up 41 points to the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game, the Bulldogs were giving up less than a touchdown per game on the season (6.9 pts/game).  This match up pits the Michigan run-first mentality against an absolute juggernaut defense.  The Georgia players are almost all former blue chip prospects, with huge size and blazing speed.

In order to have success, the Wolverines will have to do another masterful job of keeping the defense guessing, and they’ll need Georgia to guess wrong at least a handful of times.  The most vulnerable area to attack this defense will be over the middle in the passing game.  An ideal situation would be a combination of the Wisconsin and Michigan State offensive game plans, with a much better running attack in the second half than we saw in East Lansing.  

Michigan Defense (7th) vs. Georgia Offense (3rd)

When the Bulldogs get the ball, there will be fascinating individual battles all across the field.  It seems like defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald will have junior safety Daxton Hill at his disposal, and that is a huge crisis averted.  Hill is the Michigan defender best suited to match up with the Dawgs’ most dangerous offensive weapons.  Georgia likes to get multiple tight ends onto the field, with the big bodies flexed out to block on the perimeter.  Dax has also been the Wolverines’ most consistent edge player in terms of taking on blocks and tackling quick screens.

In the vertical passing game, Georgia is likely welcoming back their most dangerous receiving threat, George Pickens.  Pickens suffered an ACL injury in March, but has taken limited snaps in the last two games for the Bulldogs.  The other major threat for MacDonald to account for with his scheme is true freshman tight end Brock Bowers.  Bowers has been the favorite target of QB Stetson Bennett in the absence of Pickens.  The Wolverines will need another herculean effort from their pass defense to contain those two, on par with the performance versus Ohio State’s wide receiving corps. 

With all that said, what Georgia really wants to do is establish the run game and march along the ground, very similarly to what we’ve seen from the Wolverines in 2021.  While Georgia boasts the 3rd ranked SP+ offense, they have earned that slot versus good-not-great defensive units.  Here are the top 5 SP+ defensive units on the Bulldogs’ schedule this year, with Georgia’s offensive points scored in parentheses: #3 Clemson (3); #10 Alabama (24); #21 Auburn (34); #27 Alabama-Birmingham (49); #34 Arkansas (30).  There is reason to believe that Michigan’s 7th-ranked defense can hold up against the Georgia run game.  Then the Bulldogs’ offensive tackles will be challenged to block both Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo on passing downs.  

PREDICTION: Both teams will show their commitment to battling it out in the trenches via the run game, and I think both defenses will maintain the upper hand.  The early stalemate feeling may feel frustrating, but I would call that success for Michigan.  For most of Georgia’s season, they raced in front of teams via explosive plays, and then leaned on their historically tough defense.  Michigan has been in more gut-check moments in 2021, and should relish a close game in the 4th quarter.  At that point, I believe it will be up to the unheralded quarterbacks.  Stetson Bennett has a running element to his game that makes him dangerous, but I think Cade McNamara will show his mental toughness one more time and make the play the Wolverines need.
Michigan 25 Georgia 24

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (12/05/21), 12-1

  • SP+ Overall: 4th (same), 25.9
  • SP+ Offense: 16th (↑1), 37.7
  • SP+ Defense: 7th (same), 14.5
  • SP+ Special Teams: 3rd (↓1), 2.7

AP Poll: 2nd (same), 1,480

Coaches’ Poll: 2nd (↑1), 1,474

CFP Rank: 2nd (same)

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U-M Resume after Game #13
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Michigan 42 Iowa 3 – 2021 Big Ten Championship Game Recap

GAME 13 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 42-3, Michigan by 39 over Iowa
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 11.1 (+27.9)
CD Projection: Michigan by 18 (+21)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 13 RECAP vs. Iowa (Big Ten Championship)

Football is an emotional sport. It’s very difficult to play the game well without wearing all your passion on your sleeve. However, you have to harness that emotional power. Players have to use their emotion as fuel.

Coaching football is a very interesting high wire act. You have to inspire your players to bring the maximum emotional energy, but you yourself have to try to stay balanced. You have to be a model of how to wield that control over your emotions. Coaches love to preach about not getting too high, or too low. Peaks and valleys ideally have very little space between them, in a coach’s eyes.

Being a fan is almost the inverse of all that. It is pure unbridled emotion all the time. It’s constant emotional escalation, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. The valleys get excavated to greater depths. The mountains are stacked upon to push the peaks higher into the stratosphere.

I try to be much closer to objective than most fans. It helps me modulate my own emotion to dive into the numbers immediately. In the press box, I don’t know how well I could contain myself if I wasn’t plunking away on my keyboard recording the play data. That is why this recap is coming out the day AFTER the Big Ten Championship game. Last night, I couldn’t focus on the numbers. I was up in the clouds with the rest of the Wolverines. Sorry, not sorry.

Offensively, Michigan was near perfectly balanced. With garbage time removed, the play calls were 50/50 run to pass. Michigan amassed 461 total yards: 250 yards passing (54%) and 211 yards rushing (46%).

Hassan Haskins carried most of the workload with 17 carries, but it was the Zoom half of the #BoomAndZoom combo that set the pace. Blake Corum kicked off the scoring with a 67 yard touchdown run in the first quarter.

Donovan Edwards followed that up on the next offensive snap on the ensuing drive. Edwards caught a swing pass on the edge, and then uncorked a beautiful 46 yard spiral to Roman Wilson for a 75-yard touchdown.

Iowa showed a lot of guts by staying in the fight and battling through the entire 2nd quarter, and most of the 3rd. But eventually the dam broke and 21 points came like a tidal wave in the 4th quarter.

On defense, Michigan made the key plays when they had to. Aidan Hutchinson was relentless for the entire game, and earned Big Ten Championship Game MVP honors for his efforts: 1 sack and 7 QB pressures.

Josh Ross led the Wolverines with 9 tackles while Michigan absolutely strangled the Iowa rushing attack. The Hawkeyes could only muster an 18% Success Rate on run plays, with garbage time removed. They ended with 32 carries for 114 sack-adjusted yards, 3.5 yards per carry,

The special teams units put the cherry on top of the championship sundae. Brad Robbins flipped the field as Iowa was grasping for their last breath in the 3rd quarter. His 64-yard punt moved the ball from Michigan’s 13 yard line to the Iowa 23 yard line. The Hawkeyes never moved back into Michigan territory.

After that next Iowa possession, Jay Harbaugh unleashed another punt block. Cornelius Johnson, the Wolverines’ leading receiver of the season, blocked his 2nd punt of the year. A couple JJ McCarthy runs, a Cade McNamara dime, and a Haskins plunge finished off the sequence to provide a perfect microcosm of Michigan’s brand of complementary football.

Kudos to the Michigan Football program. The players have been a joy to watch. The coaches had to envision this path before it could be reality. Aidian Hutchinson spoke in the post game about the connection between Michigan’s 42 points and Oxford HS junior Tate Myre’s #42 jersey. “God works in mysterious ways,” said Hutchinson. I pray we can all pull together like this program has. They have been a true inspiration.

Hail! To the Victors: the 2021 Michigan Wolverines, the greatest Michigan football team of this generation.

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By the Numbers: Game 13 vs. Iowa (Big Ten Championship Game)

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines scaled the mountain, and didn’t even have to die trying.  While the Big House rocked on a snowy day, Michigan was physically dominant on offense and on defense as they pounded the Ohio State Buckeyes 42-27. 

NEXT UP: vs. Iowa: 21st, 13.7 

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 11.1, Michigan Win Probability 74%

I’ve mentioned it a few times this season, but it seems to be getting more and more true.  I think the Vegas bookmakers may have reverse-engineered the SP+ projections.  Currently, Michigan (-10.5) is projected to win by 11.1 by Connelly’s model.

Michigan Offense (22nd) vs. Iowa Defense (4th) 

Iowa’s defense is an open book.  They have run almost the exact same system for a decade.  The Hawkeye’s core philosophy is almost exactly what Michigan’s defensive approach was last week versus OSU.  They are going to stay true to their principles, keep WRs in front of them and tackle well.  Their best defensive player is LB Jack Campbell.  Campbell has racked up 121 tackles in 12 games.  Hassan Haskins versus Jack Campbell could be marketed individually as the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object.  Josh Gattis will likely tap into some of his creativity to find favorable matchups on the edges and underneath the Iowa coverage.  

Michigan Defense (7th) vs. Iowa Offense (92nd)

The Hawkeye’s offense is the lowest ranked unit Michigan has faced since Indiana.  They have two quarterbacks that have separate strengths, but neither has seized control of the offensive unit.  Of greatest concern for Iowa fans is they do NOT have their normal stable of NFL-bound offensive tackles.  The Hawkeyes’ are led by their All Conference center, Tyler Linderbaum.  They will need to find some running room inside, because they stand almost zero chance of slowing down Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo on passing downs.

PREDICTION: Kirk Ferentz and Jim Harbaugh have spoken glowingly about one another this week.  It’s pretty easy to see many similarities in their philosophies, and how they’ve built their respective programs.  For Michigan, the key will be eliminating self-inflicted wounds.  Taking care of the football, and making solid pre-snap decisions has been a strength of the Wolverines and their QB Cade McNamara.   Only 3 teams have scored more than 20 points against Mike MacDonald’s defense.  If the Wolverines avoid shooting themselves in the foot, I can’t see Iowa becoming the 4th.  
Michigan 31 Iowa 13

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/30/21, 11-1

  • SP+ Overall: 4th (same), 24.8
  • SP+ Offense: 17th (↑5), 37.1
  • SP+ Defense: 7th (same), 14.9
  • SP+ Special Teams: 2nd (same), 2.6

AP Poll: 2nd (↑4), 1,449

Coaches’ Poll: 3rd (↑3), 1,408

CFP Rank: 2nd (↑3)

U-M Resume after Game #12
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Michigan 42 Ohio State 27 – Game 12 Recap

It’s Great…To Be…A MICHIGAN WOLVERINE!

GAME 12 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 42-27, Michigan by 15 over Ohio State
SP+ Projection: OSU by 5.8 (+20.8)
CD Projection: OSU by 3 (+18)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 12 RECAP vs. Ohio State

What a day! It was a fitting cap to an outstanding regular season for these Michigan Wolverines. Michigan dominated on both sides of the ball on the way to a 42-27 statement victory over their greatest rival, the Ohio State Buckeyes. This is Jim Harbaugh’s first victory over the Buckeyes, and Ryan Day’s first loss to any team in the Big Ten.

Offensively, the best way to describe today is COMPLETE. As usual, the Wolverines were led by their senior running back Hassan Haskins. Haskins carried 28 times for 169 yards and a Michigan-record-tying 5 touchdowns. Blake Corum returned to action and also chipped in 87 yards and 14.5 yards per carry.

When the Wolverines wanted to throw the ball, they were also successful. Cade McNamara was 13-of-19 for 159 yards after shaking off an early interception. JJ McCarthy flashed all-world talent once again on a beautiful 31-yard connection with Roman Wilson along the right sideline. Josh Gattis brought the best game plan he’s ever put together, and the Wolverines executed to the tune of 42 points and a 72% Success Rate.

Most of the concern heading into the game was whether the Michigan defense could stand up to a historically great Ohio State offense. The feeling of what may be possible started to spread through the Big House at half time when the Buckeyes only had 13 points to show. CJ Stroud amassed 394 passing yards, and Jackson Smith-Njigba was a human highlight reel, but the Bucks could never catch the Wolverines on the score board in the 2nd half.

Aidan Hutchinson looked nearly unblockable again. His 3rd quarter sack gave him sole possession of the Michigan single season sack record, with at least two games yet to play this year. Josh Ross also stepped forward and made 2 or 3 huge stops on key short yardage situations. It was a fitting narrative that these leaders would stamp The Game with such heroic performances.

The return game was solid again, another common theme for this 2021 team. Michigan won the field position battle, if only slightly. Perhaps the biggest key was avoiding FG attempts in the red zone. Michigan had seven opportunities in scoring position, and scored 6 touchdowns without having to attempt a field goal.

Jim Harbaugh echoed Wolverine lore in his press conference, stating that the Michigan faithful will be celebrating deep into the night. He is 100% right. I pray the players and coaches can enjoy this as well. There is still work to be done, as Michigan looks for their first Big Ten Championship in 17 years next weekend. Onward!

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By the Numbers: Game 12 vs. Ohio State

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines overwhelmed the Maryland Terrapins in College Park.  The offense, defense, and special teams all found the end zone as Michigan trounced the Terps 59-18. 

NEXT UP: vs. Ohio State: 2nd, 32.3 

PREGAME SP+: OSU  by 5.8, Michigan Win Probability 37%

Since we reached the 2nd half of the regular season, the Buckeyes have been neck-and-neck with Georgia for the top spot in Bill Connelly’s SP+ predictive rankings.  Going into this game, OSU and Georgia have a rating of 32.3, while Michigan has climbed to 4th with a rating of 24.0.

Michigan Offense (22nd) vs. Ohio State Defense (14th) 

Most of the commentary in Michigan media this week has been focused on the Wolverines’ running attack helping to keep Ohio State’s high flying offense on the sidelines.  I agree that Michigan’s best defense will be a good offense, but there will be opportunities against the Bucks’ pass defense as well.  

Josh Gattis has put a lot of variation on film in the rushing attack.  Ohio State will need to be prepared for gap scheme runs between the tackles, and zone scheme runs that attack off tackle or outside.  Hassan Haskins will lead the charge from Michigan’s backfield, but I expect to see Blake Corum return.  Also, Donovan Edwards announced his arrival as a weapon last week in College Park.  

I believe all that run game variation will help gain rushing yards, but I think the biggest benefactor will be Cade McNamara.  The Wolverines have speedy outside receivers that must be respected by the CBs and safeties.  I think Michigan will look to find chunk yardage in the middle of the field via the intermediate passing game.  Hopefully Erick All is closer to being healthy, but Donovan Edwards could also threaten those linebackers’ coverage ability. 

Michigan Defense (7th) vs. Ohio State Offense (1st)

When the Buckeyes have the ball, Michigan will need every coach and every player to have their best game of the season.  OSU has 3 WRs that would likely be #1 pass threats on any other team in the Big Ten except Penn State with Jahan Dotson.  Nobody in the country can cover all three of those guys for more than 2-2.5 seconds.  Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo will need to lead a heroic effort to consistently force QB CJ Stroud to throw quickly.  Then all 11 Wolverines need to gang tackle because Wilson, Olave, and Smith-Njigba could each turn a 6 yard reception into a house call.   

Traditionally, this game is won by the team who rushes for more yardage.  While I don’t think this game is quite that simple to project, I do think that will end up being a true statement again this year.  5-star freshman TreVeyon Henderson has the same type of explosive ability as Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards.  The Buckeyes are also deep at running back with Miyan Williams and Master Teague likely to get touches as well.  Given how dangerous the quick-strike passing attack can be for OSU, it may be beneficial to use the defensive game plan to invite the Buckeyes to march along the ground.  This would help keep the clock running and reduce the total number of possessions the same way a Michigan running attack would.   

PREDICTION: On our preview podcast for The Game, we spent a good chunk of time trying to rally our portion of the fan base.  The pitch is basically this: don’t let past results suppress your enthusiasm for this 2021 team.  The Wolverines are absolutely capable of standing toe-to-toe with Ohio State.  Michigan’s most talented players will need to turn in iconic performances.  The offensive and defensive game plans need to land successfully, especially early on.  The 2nd half adjustments will also be critical, as the Buckeyes have found a way to pull away in the 3rd quarter in the last 3 editions of  The Game.  

The numbers and analytics are pretty clear, and I reflect that analysis in my official prediction.  But, I know there are multiple paths to a Michigan victory.  I am excited to see the entire community gather in Ann Arbor to cheer this team as they try to forge one of those victory paths this Saturday.  Have a very Happy Thanksgiving, and Go Blue!
Michigan 35 Ohio State 38 (PRESEASON Michigan 21 Ohio State 31)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/23/21), 10-1

  • SP+ Overall: 4th (↑1), 24.0
  • SP+ Offense: 22nd (↑3), 35.8
  • SP+ Defense: 7th (↓2), 14.5
  • SP+ Special Teams: 2nd (↑1), 2.6

AP Poll: 6th (↑2), 1,246

Coaches’ Poll: 6th (↑1), 1,250

CFP Rank: 5th (↑1)

U-M Resume after Game #11