Tag: Analysis

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By the Numbers: Game 3 vs. Bowling Green

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines narrowly missed a shut out for the second consecutive week.  Michigan cruised to a 35-7 victory behind pinpoint accuracy from JJ McCarthy, and physical dominance by the defensive line. 

NEXT UP: vs. Bowling Green: SP+ 113th, -15.0

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 45.1, Michigan Win Probability 100%

Rinse and repeat for the non-conference schedule.  The SP+ model again picks the Wolverines by over 40 points, and predicts the opponent to stay under a full touchdown score.  This week the model produced a 49-4 prediction.

Michigan Offense (14th) vs. BGSU Defense (121st) 

The Wolverines have two main objectives offensively in Week 3: maintain the passing game momentum & smooth out the run game execution and timing.  JJ McCarthy only has 7 incompletions through two games, compared to 5 touchdown connections with Roman Wilson.  The key run game metrics for this week will be related to explosiveness.  If we see a significant uptick on yards per play and in EPA per play, we can infer the offensive line has cleaned up assignments, the wide receivers are engaging better on the perimeter, and the running backs are in sync.

Michigan Defense (3rd) vs. BGSU Offense (94th)

This matchup pits one of Michigan’s greatest strengths, the defensive line, directly against one of Bowling Green’s greatest weaknesses, their offensive line.  That imbalance in the trenches might make it difficult to evaluate other individual players, or the back seven position groups.  We can watch out for continued improvement from the edge players.  I would love to see Braden McGregor, Josiah Stewart, Derrick Moore, & Jaylen Harrell continue to fill the stat sheet with TFLs and sacks.  Ideally, those plays would also come after beating the block of an offensive lineman.  Last week, a handful of TFLS were the direct result of Wolverines who were totally unblocked.

PREDICTION: Sherrone Moore gets his turn to add Head Coach duties to his plate this week.  While I am happy for Coach Moore to showcase his talent, I am very much looking forward to putting the Harbaugh suspension behind us and settling into normal coaching staff roles.  Jesse Minter’s defense has flirted with a shutout in both of Michigan’s first two games.  We might be trying to protect a goose egg in this one as well.

BGSU drew praise from Jim Harbaugh this week related to their passing concepts.  However, I think they will rely much more on their running game in order to keep the clock churning.  The Falcons are a team who utilizes hurry up and temp the least.  It makes sense for them to try and reduce the number of drives and plays in order to keep this game close.   
Michigan 36 BGSU 3 (PRESEASON Michigan 48 BGSU 7)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/13/23, 2-0

  • SP+ Overall: 3rd (same), 27.7
    • SP+ Offense: 14th (↓3), 38.2
    • SP+ Defense: 3rd (same), 10.6
    • SP+ Special Teams: 40th (↑4), 0.1
  • AP Poll: 2nd (same), 1458
  • Coaches’ Poll: 2nd (same), 1533
  • CFP Rank: N/A
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Michigan 35 UNLV 7 – Game 2 Recap

GAME 2 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 35-7, Michigan by 28 over UNLV
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 40.2 (-12.2)
CD Projection: Michigan by 33 (-5)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 2 RECAP vs. UNLV

JJ McCarthy was able to match his Week 1 performance going 22-25 through the air for 278 yards and 2 touchdowns. Eventually, the Wolverines nudged their rushing total up to 179 yards, but there is still a feel that they have another gear or maybe two gears they haven’t hit yet in 2023. We did see the Wolverines add the quarterback to the running attack. McCarthy had a 17 yard run on a keeper to set up a Blake Corum touchdown.

The most entertainment value in the 2nd half came from another shutout watch for Jesse Minter’s defense. Michigan set up shop in the UNLV backfield and finished with 10 tackles for loss. Perhaps the most valuable part of the game was adding snaps and reps for the players down the depth chart. The Wolverines were again without Rod Moore and Will Johnson for most of this game as a precaution. Today Quinten Johnson made some impact from the safety position, especially as a blitzer.

James Turner didn’t get any field goal opportunities, but was a perfect 5-for-5 on extra points. In the return game, Semaj Morgan and Kalel Mullings both had 20+ yard kick returns, and we saw a flash of explosiveness from Tyler Morris on punt return. Morris made his first appearance this week after sitting out the opener with a minor injury, and also made a great 3rd down catch in the first half.

Hard to find a whole lot to nit pick in Michigan’s second consecutive solid performance. The defense might be more dominant than 2022 if the pass rush continues to ascend for the defensive line. JJ McCarthy is playing nearly perfectly, albeit versus two lackluster defensive units. Once Michigan settles on their offensive line starters, and Blake Corum knocks the rest of the recovery rust off, the Wolverines seem primed to unleash their full potential in the Big Ten season. Onward!

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By the Numbers: Game 2 vs. UNLV

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan nearly shut out the Pirates of East Carolina, 30-3.  JJ McCarthy had nearly as many touchdown passes (3) as he had incompletions (4), and the defense was dominant despite missing a few stars in the secondary. 

NEXT UP: vs. UNLV: SP+ 93rd, -9.7

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 40.2, Michigan Win Probability 99%
While the Wolverines stayed at #3 in the SP+ for Week 2, the Rebels moved up 17 spots on the back of their 44-14 victory over the FCS Bryant Bulldogs.  Bill Connelly’s model spit out a Week 2 Michigan prediction (M 45-5) that is almost exactly the same as the Week 1 prediction (45-4).

Michigan Offense (11th) vs. UNLV Defense (100th) 

The Wolverines will look to maintain balance between run & pass play calling in 2023.  Michigan was quicker to adjust the game plan last week when ECU clearly sold out to stop the run.  Kirk Campbell turned the reins over to JJ McCarthy as soon a field position allowed on the second possession.  In addition to utilizing multiple receiving targets, Michigan will look to test the edge more frequently this week.  This should provide more points of comparison at both tackle positions.  We expect to see two new starters against UNLV: Trente Jones and Ladarius Henderson. 

The Rebels’ base defense is a  3-3-5, similar to what Michigan saw recently versus TCU and East Carolina.  While I expect UNLV will try to duplicate the TCU/ECU game plan that held Michigan’s run game in check, I don’t believe they will be successful to the same degree.  This UNLV unit just gave up 400+ yards of offense to FCS-level Bryant in Week 1.  Despite ceding all that yardage, UNLV managed to tighten up inside their own 40 yard line and only allowed 14 points.  For Michigan, the key metric this week will be points per scoring opportunity.

Michigan Defense (3rd) vs. UNLV Offense (89th)

UNLV runs an uncommon system called the Go-Go offense.  My oversimplified description: it’s a shotgun two-back system that relies heavily on option-style runs that include the quarterback.  While they will churn up most of their yardage on the ground, the passing game goes for the jugular by pushing the ball vertically on sporadic deep shots.  By now you probably have heard that Saturday also marks the return of Ricky White, the former Spartan wide receiver who showed loads of deep ball prowess in the Big House in 2020.  

While Michigan will have a talent advantage in the trenches, I am most encouraged by how clean the three top linebackers played last week.  Chris Partridge’s group will need to be sound in their assignments and run fits to stop this rushing attack.  The Wolverines may also welcome the return of corner Will Johnson and possibly safety Rod Moore to extend a talent advantage on the perimeter.

PREDICTION: Jay Harbaugh will assume head coaching duties in the first half, and Mike Hart will take over in the second half while Jim Harbaugh serves the second of his three-game suspension Saturday.  Michigan also adds offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore back to the sideline after a one game suspension.  Switching head coaches mid-game seems like an unnecessary risk to me.  However, I am confident the return of Moore as a play caller and as the OL coach will make Game 2 a net positive for the staff. 

UNLV started the 2023 season ranked 110th overall in SP+.  By the end of this season, I think this team may get up near the top half of FBS teams.  The Rebels will be interesting to watch all season, but they are not ready defensively to stop a balanced Michigan attack. 

I am reducing my expected points scored from my preseason estimate due to the new clock rules.  Both teams will feature plenty of run plays, and we might see both teams run fewer than 70 total plays in the game.  It’s critical to avoid huge mistakes on special teams and stay even in turnover margin to remove any thoughts of an upset.  I expect Michigan will almost cover the 36-point spread, but not quite.  
Michigan 40 UNLV 7 (PRESEASON Michigan 52 UNLV 6)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/05/23, 1-0

  • SP+ Overall: 3rd (same), 28.0
    • SP+ Offense: 11th (↓4), 38.3
    • SP+ Defense: 3rd (↑1), 10.4
    • SP+ Special Teams: 40th, 0.1
  • AP Poll: 2nd (same), 1485
  • Coaches’ Poll: 2nd (same), 1534
  • CFP Rank: N/A
2023 Michigan Wolverine Football Depth Chart – Game 2 vs UNLV
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Michigan 30 East Carolina 3 – Game 1 Recap

GAME 1 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 30-3, Michigan by 27 over ECU
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 40.9 (-13.9)
CD Projection: Michigan by 32 (-5)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 1 RECAP vs. ECU

Offensively, the number that stands out is 60(%).  Michigan called pass plays 60% of the snaps that were non-garbage time against ECU.  That clarifies an increased focus on letting J.J. McCarthy have more control over the game.  He stepped up to the challenge by going 26-of-30 for 280 yards and connecting for 3 touchdowns to Roman Wilson.  There were hiccups, as we expected, with the offense in Sherrone Moore’s absence.  However, I expect that will smooth out when Moore returns and the offensive line continues to gel together.

The defense was robbed of a shutout on the final snap of the game.  ECU settled for the saddest possible 33-yard field goal to get onto the scoreboard with 0:05 left in the game.  The Wolverines gained a lot of game experience for their younger players, especially in the secondary.  With Will Johnson and Rod Moore both sitting out, Keon Sabb and Jyaire Hill stepped in admirably.  Kenneth Grant showed that he will be adding value to the interior pass rush.  He was in the face of ECU quarterback Mason Garcia to force an interception by Mike Sainristil.

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There was almost no way to sustain the kicking game level we’re used to from the Jake Moody / Brad Robbins era.  James Turner’s nerves got the best of him as he missed an extra point.  However, he showed plenty of leg while he nailed a 50-yard field goal in the first half, and missed a 53-yarder wide in the second half.

Overall, I didn’t see anything that made me change my expectations for the early portion of the season.  It was very encouraging to see an offensive commitment to the pass game, and we know the run game will sort itself out to some extent.  Other than the players who sat out, I think the Wolverines managed to stay healthy.  Next, Michigan will look to play a cleaner game under two different acting head coaches when they take on UNLV for Game #2.  Onward!

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By the Numbers: Game 1 vs. East Carolina

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines finished fall camp to kick off the 2023 season (preview) with sky-high expectations.

NEXT UP: vs. East Carolina: SP+ 87th, -8.7

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 40.9, Michigan Win Probability 99%

Michigan enters the regular season sporting the #3 overall SP+ ranking from Bill Connelly at ESPN.  The Pirates from ECU are a reasonably successful Group of 5 program, but the model expects this to be a laugher.

Michigan Offense (7th) vs. ECU Defense (81st) 

Michigan brings back six starters from the 2022 unit that finished ranked 15th in SP+.  Blake Corum & Donovan Edwards represent the strongest running back room in the country, and the coaching staff believes the entire two-deep on the offensive line is NFL caliber.  The Wolverines’ attack will again be centered on their powerful run game.  However, new QB coach Kirk Campbell & offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore have indicated they want to increase the ratio of pass plays called in 2023.

Fans and analysts alike expect Michigan to get whatever production they want on the ground in this matchup.  The more interesting dynamic will be down the field.  Will senior receiver Roman Wilson see a major increase in targets after stepping in for Ronnie Bell?  Who will emerge at the outside receiver position to join Cornelius Johnson?  How will Kirk Campbell utilize personnel & formations to exploit matchup problems for Donovan Edwards and tight end Colston Loveland? 

The ECU defense will utilize a variety of fronts and coverages in their scheme, which makes the Pirates a good non-conference test for junior quarterback JJ McCarthy.  I am interested to see how much decision making the offensive staff puts on McCarthy’s plate, both pre-snap play adjustments and post-snap option reads.  Ideally, we’ll get to see a few offensive series that rely heavily on the passing game.  If this game gets lopsided, we don’t know how many snaps all the starters will get together.  

Michigan Defense (4th) vs. ECU Offense (93rd)

Defensively, the Wolverines also return six starters from 2022 where they finished ranked 9th in SP+.  Michigan is loaded with experience in the core of their unit, led by defensive tackle Kris Jenkins and bolstered by both Mike Barrett and Junior Colson returning as inside linebackers.  Junior safety Rod Moore, sophomore corner Will Johnson, and sophomore defensive tackle Mason Graham are all poised to make a leap toward All-American status.

The Big House will host the likely debut of ECU’s talented sophomore quarterback Mason Garcia.  While the Pirates lost a majority of their production at the skill positions from last year, they will have experienced players stepping into larger roles.  That experience will be critical to help steady the young quarterback as the Pirates will continue to focus on trying to play mistake-free on offense.

For me, the main matchup focus happens along the edge of the line of scrimmage.  Michigan has question marks about how this defense will generate pressure on the quarterback.  After both Aiden Hutchinson and David Ojabo were drafted into the NFL in spring 2022, Jesse Minter had to rely on overload schemes and blitzing to create havoc last season.  In 2023 Michigan will look to senior Braden McGregor, junior transfer Josiah Stewart, and sophomore Derrick Moore to win more 1-on-1 battles in the pass rush.  The ECU matchup could be advantageous for someone to create some buzz.  Coming out of fall camp, the major questions for ECU seem to center around their offensive tackles.

PREDICTION: Jim Harbaugh will be serving the first of his three-game suspension on Saturday.  Jesse Minter will add head coach responsibilities to his defensive coordinator role.  On offense Kirk Campbell will be the interim play caller while Sherrone Moore also serves a one-game suspension.  To top it all off, recent news rumblings indicate that Michigan may have a handful of injury concerns on both sides of the ball.  

With all of that bad news accounted for, Michigan is fortunate to be able to lean on superstar talent (Corum, McCarthy, Jenkins) as well as impressive depth.  A laundry list of distractions like the one described above is cause for concern.  However, we repeatedly see this group of players excel in their leadership roles.  Somehow, they manage to compartmentalize off-field chaos and focus on their objectives game-by-game.  We might see a few hiccups on Saturday, but I expect to see the Wolverines overwhelm ECU in the opener at the Big House.

Michigan 45 ECU 13 (same as PRESEASON)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 08/16/23, 0-0

  • SP+ Overall: 3rd, 28.6
    • SP+ Offense: 7th, 40.1
    • SP+ Defense: 4th, 11.5
    • SP+ Special Teams: N/A
  • AP Poll: 2nd, 1490
  • Coaches’ Poll: 2nd, 1510
  • CFP Rank: N/A