Tag: Analysis

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By the Numbers: Game 6 @ Minnesota

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan finally delivered a dominant performance in all phases.  This one came on the road in Lincoln as the Wolverines pounded Nebraska 45-7. 

NEXT UP: @ Minnesota: SP+ 46th, 4.0

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 18.5, Michigan Win Probability 86%

Michigan stayed #1 overall in the SP+ rankings, thanks to the offense jumping back up into the top ten unit rankings.  The Golden Gophers are 46th overall, led by their 28th ranked defense.

Michigan Offense (9th) vs. Minnesota Defense (28th) 

The Wolverines may have settled on a 5-man offensive line unit for the time being.  Ladarius Henderson got his first start at left tackle last week, and Karsen Barnhart shifted over to right tackle.  The run game execution looked a little cleaner to me.  Now we’ll be looking to see Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards make a man miss and create explosive runs. 

JJ McCarthy is back to his razor sharp form.  McCarthy continues to carve up zone coverages through the middle of the field.  He also presents a major headache when he moves out of the pocket.  It’s nearly impossible to stay tight in coverage on Michigan’s receivers for the extra three or four seconds when JJ is on the move.  I expect to see the Wolverines exploit the middle of Minnesota’s defense through the air, but maybe we will see more targets toward the tight ends today.  

Michigan Defense (2nd) vs. Minnesota Offense (77th)

Week six presents another lopsided mismatch for the Michigan defense.  Minnesota has an OK running attack when they are at full strength, but they have been missing their best running back recently.  Regardless of who is carrying the ball, defensive tackles Kris Jenkins and Mason Graham have been almost impossible to block.  We expect Graham to return for this game with a club on his hand.  I will be interested to see if he sheds blocks at the same rate without use of one hand.  

The Wolverines’ pass defense presents the best opportunity for growth and improvement in Minneapolis.  We still haven’t seen the outside corners challenge and press the opposing wide receivers at the line of scrimmage.  Also, some of the zone coverages in the middle have yielded big windows for quarterbacks to hit slants, and those receivers have been able to run after the catch.  I will be looking for more aggressive coverage technique from the corners, expecting the ball to come out quickly.  The added aggression could yield multiple turnovers from Minnesota quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis.  

PREDICTION: The first half of the regular season will come to close at the completion of tonight’s game.  There was remarkable similarity between the first three opponents, and now the 4th-6th opponents are equally comparable.  I think we’ll see a performance very similar to those against Rutgers and Nebraska. 

The one concerning question is whether the prime time (7:30 PM EST) time slot creates issues for Michigan as it did in Week 3 versus Bowling Green.  If the Wolverines come out and can generate another hot start on the road like last week, we’ll see matching results.  But, if there is a lack of energy, or any sloppiness that leads to early turnovers, this Minnesota team and crowd will be ready throw everything they have, including the kitchen sink, toward an upset bid.
Michigan 33 Minnesota 6 (PRESEASON Michigan 31 Minnesota 14)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 10/02/23, 5-0

  • SP+ Overall: 1st (same), 25.0
    • SP+ Offense: 9th (↑4), 37.4
    • SP+ Defense: 2nd (↓1), 12.8
    • SP+ Special Teams: 8th (↑8), 0.4
  • AP Poll: 2nd (same), 1436
  • Coaches’ Poll: 2nd (same), 1503
  • CFP Rank: N/A
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By the Numbers: Game 5 @ Nebraska

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines stood tall after Rutgers came out swinging in the B1G opener.  Michigan scored 31 unanswered points after a poor start and salted the game away in the 4th quarter for a 31-7 victory over the Scarlet Knights.

NEXT UP: @ Nebraska: SP+ 59th, 1.9

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 22.3, Michigan Win Probability 90%

While Michigan has climbed to the top of the SP+ rankings, Nebraska has a very similar profile to the Rutgers team that was just in Ann Arbor.  The Cornhuskers are also carried by a legitimate defensive unit and find themselves sitting 10 spots ahead of Rugers, for now.

Michigan Offense (13th) vs. Nebraska Defense (28th) 

For a second consecutive week, this matchup will likely play the biggest role in the final outcome of the game.  Nebraska has a stout, 3-man defensive line.  They also utilize a similar 3-3-5 scheme that has caused some blocking issues for Michigan’s run attack this season and last.  While the Cornhuskers have put up impressive defensive stats, Michigan’s offense will be the first significant test in the ground game. 

Through the air, JJ McCarthy had a solid bounce back performance last week.  Sherrone Moore schemed up a few beautiful chunk plays through the air early, but put those back into the garage almost immediately.  I think it would be wise to utilize the best designed plays early in this contest.  A couple early scores would be extremely valuable to take some of the starch out of that passionate Nebraska crowd. 

Michigan Defense (1st) vs. Nebraska Offense (85th)

As a program, Nebraska is going through a major transition as Matt Rhule tries to leave the Scott Frost era in the past.  Part of that transition appears to include a return to leaning on a running quarterback, and even some option looks.  In the first two games, both losses, turnover-worthy plays plagued quarterback Jeff Sims. Heinrich Haarberg has now taken over to lead the new QB rushing attack.

I would expect Michigan to be tested on the edges in this game.  I can’t imagine Nebraska trying to man up and block Kris Jenkins and the other defensive tackles.  Instead, look for the Cornhuskers testing Braiden McGregor, Josiah Stewart, and the other edge players with various option looks.  The three Wolverine linebackers will also be tested when Nebraska spreads their formation to isolate Haarberg with the LBs on draw plays. 

PREDICTION: Nebraska’s similarity to Rutgers is striking.  They want to lean heavily on a rushing attack that features the quarterback.  This is likely to keep the clock running, shortening this game yet again.  When there are fewer plays over the course of a full game, then the less talented team has a better chance to catch lightning in a bottle a few times to stay competitive.  

In terms of scheme, gameplan, and talent Michigan will have a huge advantage in each phase.  However, I do expect to see a somewhat sluggish start in the Wolverines’ first road trip.  In the past we’ve seen Michigan struggle early on the road, especially when moving out of the noon time slot.  This 3:30 kickoff in Lincoln poses the first mental challenge of this kind in the 2023 season.
Michigan 28 Nebraska 7 (PRESEASON Michigan 34 Nebraska 13)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/25/23, 4-0

  • SP+ Overall: 1st (↑2), 26.7
    • SP+ Offense: 13th (↑3), 36.8
    • SP+ Defense: 1st (↑1), 10.4
    • SP+ Special Teams: 16th (↓11), 0.3
  • AP Poll: 2nd (same), 1445
  • Coaches’ Poll: 2nd (same), 1495
  • CFP Rank: N/A
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Michigan 31 Rutgers 7 – Game 4 Recap

WEEK 4 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 31-7, Michigan by 24 over Rutgers
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 28.6 (-4.6)
CD Projection: Michigan by 17 (+7)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 4 RECAP vs. Rutgers

A longing feeling still remains with the offense.  It’s not very easy to put a finger on, but we can certainly feel like there is more potential remaining untapped.  But, Michigan gained over 400 yards, and again eclipsed 50% success rate in the run game.  We got an early peek at some creative play calling in the first quarter with a reverse flea flicker.  I also enjoy the two-running back formations that the Wolverines put on film today.  But, after those schemes were successful, they went back into the garage and the Wolverines methodically trampled the Rutgers defensive front.  Blake Corum finished with 97 yards and 2 touchdowns.  JJ McCarthy was cleaner today, going 15-for-21 through the air for 214 yards and a touchdown.

The defense had an unfortunate missed tackle on Rutgers’ first series of the day.  A 69-yard touchdown pass on the third snap sucked the energy right out of the building.  However, the Michigan defense flexed after the start of the 2nd quarter.  The Scarlet Knights only gained 122 yards in the final three quarters of the game.  Junior Colson led on the stat sheet with six tackles.  But, the most electric moment of the game was a 71-yard pick six by captain Mike Sainristil in the 3rd quarter.  Rutgers never seriously threatened to score again.

The kicking game also left something to be desired.   James Turner narrowly missed a 42-yard field goal wide.  Also, Jake Thaw wasn’t aggressive on an early punt and let it roll out.  The result was a 75-yard field punt that flipped the field position.  There is still no alarm to panic about, but this team will need to improve their special teams execution to win the biggest games on the schedule. 

Overall, the Wolverines have held serve through these opening four home games.  Now, Michigan must pack a few more improvements into their suitcases and travel for the first time in 2023 next week.  We’ll keep an eye on exactly how good a win this ends up being over Rutgers.  I think that team should head to a bowl this season, and might surprise one or two B1G teams, also.  Onward!

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By the Numbers: Game 4 vs. Rutgers

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan cashed in a few run game corrections, but JJ McCarthy had perhaps his worst game as a starter.  The result was a 31-6 victory over BGSU that didn’t serve to calm the discomfort of our fan base.

NEXT UP: vs. Rutgers: SP+ 64th, 2.1

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 28.6, Michigan Win Probability 95%

The Big Ten season brings a marginal increase in opponent strength according to SP+.  The model still favors the Wolverines by four touchdowns against the Scarlet Knights.

Michigan Offense (16th) vs. Rutgers Defense (44th) 

This matchup will likely play the biggest role in the final outcome of the game.  Greg Schiano has continued to improve on defense in each season since his return to Pascataway.  The defensive line creates a lot of motion and disruption for the blocking scheme of the offensive line.  This will be a legitimate test for Sherrone Moore’s group to show that they have ironed out the last of the wrinkles we’ve seen so far in the 2023 run game.  

I expect a bounce-back performance from JJ McCarthy through the air after the night-game wakeup call last week.  Really, the primary danger for Michigan in terms of an upset would be another sloppy performance riddled with turnovers.  I don’t want the Wolverines to be completely risk averse, but they should prioritize executing the base offensive plays well. 

Michigan Defense (2nd) vs. Rutgers Offense (78th)

Again this week, we’ll see Michigan’s defensive line looking to exploit a giant mismatch, this time versus the Rutgers offensive line.  The Scarlet Knights are led by mobile quarterback Gavin Wimsatt, and underrated running back Kyle Monangai.  While I expect to see 2 or 3 Wolverines in the backfield on nearly every snap, Rutgers has shown the ability to exploit a defense using designed QB runs.  The Scarlet Knights will be looking for a Denard-like performance from Wimsatt to try and shock Michigan.

When Rutgers does try to pass, they will likely settle for short dump off passes within 6 or 7 yards of the line of scrimmage.  The tight ends and running backs have nearly as many targets as the wide receivers from game-to-game.  The key will be fundamental tackling.  Linebackers, safeties, and corners must be sure tacklers to keep short passes and QB run plays from becoming explosive plays.

PREDICTION: Michigan gains two intangible bonuses for Week 4: Jim Harbaugh returns to the sideline after completing his three-game suspension & the kickoff returns to the traditional noon window.  I expect to see a game plan that is much more cleanly executed now that the coaching staff will all be back to their normally assigned roles.  Also, we should see adjustments made more quickly.  If the Wolverines get off to a fast start in all three phases, they could potentially bury Rutgers.

However, that has not been the case recently in these games against the Knights.  Greg Schiano will stick to a conservative, defense & field-position strategy to try and keep the game close.  Offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca will also be looking for his preferred matchup to isolate Wimsatt.  This game could go by quickly with the new clock rules.  And, when we look up at the new scoreboards, we might be wondering how Rutgers managed to hang around.
Michigan 27 Rutgers 10 (PRESEASON Michigan 31 Rutgers 16)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/20/23, 3-0

  • SP+ Overall: 3rd (same), 28.2
    • SP+ Offense: 16th (↓2), 37.8
    • SP+ Defense: 2nd (↑1), 9.9
    • SP+ Special Teams: 5th (↑35), 0.3
  • AP Poll: 2nd (same), 1481
  • Coaches’ Poll: 2nd (same), 1514
  • CFP Rank: N/A
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Michigan 31 Bowling Green 6 – Game 3 Recap

GAME 3 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 31-6, Michigan by 25 over BGSU
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 45.1 (-20.1)
CD Projection: Michigan by 33 (-8)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 3 RECAP vs. Bowling Green

Do you want the good news first, or the bad news? For the third consecutive week, Michigan had one phase of the offense humming, but struggled in the other. JJ McCarthy threw 3 interceptions, all of them on scoring opportunities inside Bowling Green’s 40-yard line. In addition to the turnovers, he also missed a few open receivers with his eyes, and a couple with his arm. While the passing attack struggled, Michigan returned to sky-high success rate on the ground (68%). Blake Corum kicked the game off with a 54-yard scamper, and Donovan Edwards also averaged 5.6 yards per carry for the game.

The defense was physically dominant again for the third consecutive week. On a night that Michigan turned the ball over four times, the shut out potential was lost early. However, the pass rush and ball-hawking secondary combined to create three turnovers to help balance the scales. One particular highlight was Mason Graham pressuring the Falcons’ quarterback on a screen pass that was picked off by tackle Kris Jenkins. Jenkins had his eyes on the end zone, but was dragged down just short. Corum pounded the ball in for Michigan’s third touchdown.

Special teams was uncharacteristically sloppy as well. The most costly event was a fumbled pooch kick by Max Bredeson after Bowling Green’s first field goal. That quick change resulted in the second score allowed by the defensive unit, but they would not allow any more. On the positive side of the ledger, James Turner looks like he’s settled in as the place kicker. Also, both Jake Thaw and Tyler Morris were sure-handed while fielding bouncing punts.

This was a text book example of an ugly win. The Wolverines were able to win comfortably based on their defensive line dominance and creating explosive offensive plays. This might be the ugliest of the three games we’ve seen in 2023, but the concern is that we still haven’t seen a complete performance from Michigan. The next test from Rutgers will force the Wolverines to put all the pieces together. The Scarlet Knights come to Ann Arbor next week with a 3-0 record. Onward!