By the Numbers: Game 14 CFP SF vs. Alabama @ Rose Bowl | By Fans...For Fans Since 1999 | UMGOBLUE.COM Michigan Wolverine Football & Basketball

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan shut out the Iowa Hawkeyes 26-0 in Indianapolis to secure their third straight B1G Ten Championship. The offense didn’t put up flashy statistics, but the defense only allowed Iowa one scoring opportunity that ended with a fumble recovery for the Wolverines.

NEXT UP: vs. Alabama: SP+ 7th, 23.7

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 8.4, Michigan Win Probability 69%

Michigan maintained the #1 SP+ ranking, and added the top ranking in the CFP poll, AP poll, and Coaches’ poll. According to SP+, the Wolverines would be favored over any of the other three playoff teams: Texas (6th, 24.6); Alabama (7th, 23.7); Washington (11th, 18.6)

Michigan Offense (10th) vs. Alabama Defense (9th)

The Michigan offense and Crimson Tide defense square up pretty equally on paper. However, the SP+ model cannot factor in the season ending injury to All-American guard Zak Zinter. Since the injury in the second half of the Ohio State game, senior Karsen Barhart slid inside to guard to backfill Zinter, and Trente Jones entered at right tackle. This configuration allowed four sacks to Iowa in the B1G Championship game, and only mustered 106 rushing yards. The Wolverines need a huge bounce back performance from the offensive line group to keep Alabama edge rushers Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell off JJ McCarthy.

The strength of the Alabama defensive unit resides in the secondary. Both corners Kool-Aid McKinstry and Terrion Arnold will play in the NFL soon. In order to attack the Crimson Tide, Michigan will have to look for match up advantages in the middle of the field. Center Drake Nugent and guard Trevor Keegan will need decisive wins on the interior to pave the way for Blake Corum between the tackles. Then JJ McCarthy should be able to find Colston Loveland and Donovan Edwards covered by linebackers and safeties who first have to respect the interior run threat. Running QB Alex Orji could also play a key role in creating a run game advantage by running option plays.

Michigan Defense (1st) vs. Alabama Offense (11th)

The Wolverines defense should have an advantage over the Alabama offense. The strength of Michigan’s defensive line will create problems for Alabama’s blocking scheme. I expect Bama to utilize double teams on the interior against DTs Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant. The resulting single blocking on the edge must be exploited by Jaylen Harrell, Josiah Stewart, Derrick Moore, and Braden McGregor. In my eyes, the edge rushers are the largest key for this game. Alabama QB Jalen Milroe can make plays with his legs, and throws the deep ball very well. However, he will also make a handful of big mistakes in each half, very similar to Maryland QB Taulia Tagovailoa. The pass rush must be disciplined by staying in their rush lanes without providing an escape alley for Milroe. The Wolverines can create big plays by making him read the downfield coverage from a collapsing pocket as often as possible.

The Crimson Tide are not as explosive in 2023 as they have been in years past. After a string of Heisman winners on the offensive side of the ball, this year’s Alabama squad doesn’t have the same dominant superstar playmaker. Wide receiver Jermaine Burton is the most dangerous threat in my opinion, averaging 22.2 yards per reception and pulling in 8 touchdowns on the season. In the backfield, Bama had three players carry the ball over 100 times. Running back Jase McClellan should be the secondary focus for stopping the running attack, after the QB Milroe. We saw Alabama’s late-season opponents dedicate one, or sometimes two (!), players as spies to follow Milroe on the ground. We can expect Jesse Minter to utilize a similar plan by keeping safeties over the top of Burton, and using linebackers Michael Barret and/or Junior Colson to chase the quarterback on scramble plays.

PREDICTION: These two blue-blood programs will meet in the Granddaddy of them All, the Rose Bowl, for the first time. With the B1G Ten, SEC, and College Football Playoff all expanding in 2024, this may be one of the last hurrahs for nostalgia and tradition to bolster the high-stakes CFP atmosphere. I expect this game to be dictated by both defensive units, and potentially a few special teams plays. The scoreboard could stay tight for the entire duration, but in the 4th quarter I think the experience and poise of JJ McCarthy and the Wolverines will lead to a decisive play to clinch Michigan’s first CFP victory.
Michigan 27 Alabama 24

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 12/17/23, 13-0

SP+ Overall: 1st (same), 32.1
- SP+ Offense: 10th (↓1), 37.6
- SP+ Defense: 1st (↑1), 7.4
- SP+ Special Teams: 4th (↑1), 2.0
AP Poll: 1st (↑1), 1539
Coaches’ Poll: 1st (↑1), 1535
CFP Rank: 1st (↑1)