GAME 4 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS
Final Score: 19-20, Iowa by 1 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 0.3 (-1.3)
CD Projection: Michigan by 6 (-7)
FIVE FACTORS
GAME 4 RECAP vs. Iowa
At least four drives were killed by penalties, and two other trips inside Iowa’s forty yard line ended with turnovers. Michigan needed a clean game and instead finally got bitten by all the young team, undisciplined mistakes. Most of the raw stats and five factor numbers look good, but less than three points per scoring opportunity is absolute poison. On the plays that were not poison, there is a lot to like from Michigan. Bryce Underwood has two lethal weapons outside, and Savion Hiter continues to settle in. No more room for error from this group now, though. They have scored 20+ points in just one of their three games.
The defense regressed back to Wink Martindale levels of infuriating on 3rd down in the 2nd half. I count five critical 3rd down conversions in the 2nd half, including gains of 32, 21, 13, & 29. The Wolverines did not make the plays they needed to make, and the death blow was another post-whistle personal foul penalty. The chippy late hit call wiped out an incomplete pass that would have forced Iowa to convert a 4th & 6 on the final touchdown drive.
A kickoff return touchdown allowed Iowa to keep their head above water until Michigan imploded. The rest of the field position battle was basically even, but special teams handed Iowa seven points in a one point loss. Trey Butkowski still looks solid, and that is reason for optimism. But let’s hope all kickoffs are touchbacks for the rest of this season.
There is season-level karma after WMU outplayed Michigan in the Bail Mary game. There is game karma after the Wolverines allowed the Hawkeyes to hang around for three quarters. All of that karma converged into an avalanche of pain for Michigan fans. This group will have to show some serious guts to pick themselves up and play well in their first road game next week. Go Blue.
