Category: SP+

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Michigan 27 USC 24 – Game 4 Recap

GAME 4 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 27-24, Michigan by 3 over USC
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 3.9 (-0.9)
CD Projection: USC by 4 (+7)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 4 RECAP vs. USC

To make a classic football game, both sides have to have a legit chance to win. USC played a whale of a game on the road to put themselves in position to win. Lincoln Riley vs. Wink Martindale was like Ali vs. Frazier. Unfortunately, the offense played the role of Achilles’ heel. The Wolverines only mustered 32 yards passing on 12 attempts. But, the offense was able to put 21 points on the board (defense scored 6) because they committed to their smash identity. One critical result here is buying more time for Kirk Campbell to figure out how to create more balance with scripted plays & high percentage throws. Kalel Mullings should get at least one week of Campbell’s salary. Mullings rushed 17 times for 159 yards and two touchdowns, including a 4th down, game-on-the-line smash that should go into Wolverines’ lore forever.

Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale had a proverbial gauntlet laid down after Texas romped over Michigan in the Big House. He had to simplify enough to let these college kids play fast, without too much thinking. At the same time, he had to keep enough variability to match wits with offensive wizard Lincoln Riley coming off a bye. This afternoon was a resoundingly successful proof of concept for the ol’ NFL coordinator. The Trojans started the third quarter with an impressive 75-yard touchdown drive. Outside of that drive, the wins for USC were more flashes in the pan. By the end, Miller Moss was seeing ghosts, and hearing footsteps when it mattered the most in he fourth quarter. Will Johnson cemented his big play legacy when he set a Michigan record with his third career pick-six, but left the game early for an unknown reason.

We now know that the Michigan kicker, Dominic Zvada, is human. He clunked a PAT low enough to get blocked. That missing pointt gave USC an opportunity to tie the game with a field goal at the end. However, his boy Tommy Doman stepped in and carried the kicking game. Doman averaged 47.9 yards per punt on seven punts. The first half field position advantage led directly to the Wolverines’ 14-3 half time lead.

Live during the game, I noted that Michigan was approximately 70/30 run plays and USC was 70/30 pass plays. This sparked my memory of Jim Harbaugh’s quip about George Patton getting it done on the ground, and Neil Armstrong getting it done through the air. While both sides left it all out there, the astronaut’s offense from California couldn’t outlast Patton’s barrage on the ground. Smash!

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By the Numbers: Game 4 vs. USC

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan handled their business early, but still didn’t look sharp in the passing game.  The Wolverines overcame 3 interceptions and a -2 turnover margin to defeat the Arkansas State Red Wolves 28-18. 

NEXT UP: vs. USC: SP+ 17th, 16.0

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 3.9, Michigan Win Probability 60%

The SP+ model is blind to the QB switch to Alex Orji.  We shall see if the offense ticks up from 57th nationally with the added dimension to the run game.  USC meanwhile is climbing as a defense, but with only two games of data to add atop their preseason ranking.

Michigan Offense (57th) vs. USC Defense (70th) 

The switch to Orji as the starting quarterback will get the majority of media attention.  But, the real test is how much continued improvement we see from the offensive line.  LT Myles Hinton has been good, but nobody else up front has stood out for positive performance.  At a minimum, this unit needs to clean up the mental mistakes.  For the Wolverines to be successful, they need to be successful on standard downs, especially 1st & 10.  Consistently putting 2nd & 5, or 3rd & 1 in front of Alex Orji will allow coordinator Kirk Campbell to utilize any page from the playbook that they’ve installed. 

Michigan Defense (4th) vs. USC Offense (4th)

Very similarly to the Texas matchup, this is strength-on-strength.  Lincoln Riley knows how to maximize his QB’s talent.  Miller Moss is not a serious run threat, but they will look to pick on the linebackers with RPO’s, as well as attacking Jayaire Hill down the field.  Wink Martindale showed that he can turn the dial down last week versus Arkansas State.  Early in this game, we want to see Michigan hang back and force USC to hand he ball off into light boxes.  The Wolverines’ defensive line should be able to win one-on-one matchups inside, allowing the linebackers to stay in passing lanes. 

PREDICTION: Michigan needs their best performance of the season to beat the Trojans.  There are a handful of 50/50 what-if matchups, and I think Michigan needs to win three or four of those coin flips.  We need Orji to threaten the safeties with his legs (good blocking) and with his arm (stretching deep when they creep forward).  We also need to move the chains consistently enough that USC is forced to drive 70+ yards on each of their possessions.  Keep the game close, and look to wear the Trojans down in the 4th quarter.

More bad news for Michigan as we hear that tight end Coleston Loveland will be sidelined with a shoulder injury.  This puts more pressure on Kirk Campbell to scheme up plays that will give Alex Orji a chance to hit an open receiver.  When in doubt, pull the ball down and run!  It just feels like there may be too many what-ifs for Michigan to overcome.
Michigan 20 USC 24 (PRESEASON Michigan 27 USC 10)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/17/24, 2-1

CFP Rank: N/A

SP+ Overall: 12th (↑1), 17.4
SP+ Offense: 57th (↑10), 28.4
SP+ Defense: 4th (↓1), 11.3
SP+ Special Teams: 11th (↑13), 0.3

AP Poll: 18th (↓1), 447

Coaches’ Poll: 17th (↓1), 439

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Michigan 28 Arkansas State 18 – Game 3 Recap

GAME 3 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 28-18, Michigan by 10 over Arkansas State
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 28.9 (-18.9)
CD Projection: Michigan by 21 (-11)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 3 RECAP vs. Arkansas State

The coaching staff for the Wolverines committed to returning to their run first identity, and it paid off. Michigan finished with 301 yards rushing on the day. However, there was still enough sloppiness up front to give some of the doubters oxygen. The pass protection was still a major issue, and Davis Warren let it affect him in the pocket. Warren was pulled after throwing his third interception of the day. Alex Orji entered and led a scoring drive, but we still haven’ seen him lead an efficient passing effort yet. The biggest blow for Michigan was an apparent shoulder injury suffered by Coleston Loveland, the All-American tight end.

The defense spent a majority of his game looking as dominant as we’ve come to expect. Arkansas State could only muser 280 total yards for the game. Both touchdowns came in the 4th quarter while Michigan’s 28-3 lead would define that period as garbage time. However, there was also sloppiness to worry about from the D. Most critically, the penalties after the whistle must stop. Two drives were saved for the Red Wolves on absolutely avoidable penalties.

On special teams, we didn’t get a chance to deploy our most dangerous weapon, placekicker Dominic Zvada. I am sure he was looking for an opportunity to score against his former team, but no opportunity presented itself. Returns were muted all day by mostly fair catch signals. Punter Tommy Doman still has me a little worried. His three punts today averaged 39.0 yards. But, we’ve seen multiple punts this year of less than 30 yards, including a 29-yarder in the 4th quarter of this game.

We wanted to see a come-to-Jesus moment, but this game just underwhelmed those expectations. Offensively, I think we’ll get to see what Alex Orji is capable of. He certainly adds another explosive threat to the mix, and that will be a big boost if Loveland’s injury is serious. Defensively, they look closer to a finished product, but there is another major challenge looming when USC visits next weekend.

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By the Numbers: Game 3 vs. Arkansas State

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan was outclassed by Texas in the Big House, and scored late to post a 31-12 score that looks better than the game felt.  Davis Warren threw two interceptions, and the Wolverines’ defense showed they are human.

NEXT UP: vs. Ark. St.: SP+ 99th, -9.4

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 28.9, Michigan Win Probability 96%

While the Wolverines were thoroughly outplayed last weekend by the Texas Longhorns, the SP+ model did not shift much.  Michigan drops one spot to 13th overall.  The even wilder quirk of the model is that Texas’ unit rankings each improved, but overall the Longhorns also dropped one spot to #4.  Arkansas State is in alignment with average G5 teams.

Michigan Offense (67th) vs. Ark. St. Defense (124th) 

This week is potentially a now-or-never moment for Michign’s offense.  The Red Wolves bring a bottom feeder defensive unit to Ann Arbor.  We can use any number of traditional stats or advanced stats to measure the offense this week, but I just want to see Michigan move the line of scrimmage at the snap.  Arkansas State is giving up over 140 yards rushing per game so far versus Central Arkansas and Tulsa.  This is a big week for first year Offensive Line Coach Grant Newsome.  Michigan must re-establish their identity as a smash offense.  Any of the quarterbacks on the roster require an efficient run game to open up explosive plays in the air, or even using Oriji’s legs for chunk yardage gains.  Priority #1 for Michigan on Saturday has to be clean execution up front on offense.  

Michigan Defense (3rd) vs. Ark. St. Offense (69th)

Maybe it’s unfair to keep comparing the 2024 Michigan Football team to the 2023 team that won the national title.  But, if the Wolverines are going to maintain the program standard under first-year head coach Sherrone Moore, this defense will have to be just as good as last year’s unit.  The major challenge to accomplishing that objective is the 2024 depth being much thinner this season.  The Wolverines can no longer rely on a dominant performance from the 1st and 2nd units interchangeably.  So, to have success remotely comparable to last year’s defense, Wink Martindale will have to find a way to get off the field when they have the chance.  Hopefully, the offense will continue to evolve and improve enough to help rest the 1st team defense so they are fresh for the key moments late in games.

Arkansas State is almost exactly average nationally as an offensive unit.  They are averaging 426 total yards per game so far against a couple low-level opponents.  Quarterback Jaylen Raynor will be looking to push the ball down the field and challenge Michigan’s DBs who aren’t named Will Johnson.  Raynor is also the leading rusher for the Red Wolves through two weeks.  The Wolverines will definitely be rotating many players into this game as they try to shore up their depth.  If they can consistently get to Raynor and hit him, they will have some chances to create a few turnovers in this game. 

PREDICTION: This should be the last week where we enter the game with major question marks about how Michigan will manage personnel.  If Alex Orji is getting more snaps, especially consecutively, then they see his ability as critical to supporting the run game.  When Davis Warren and/or Jack Tuttle is at quarterback, the Wolverines are stating they think the run game will continue to improve without adding the QB run plays.  Either way, the key players are on the offensive line.  I am especially looking to see how Newsome is rotating players at right tackle. 

The Wolverines have a major talent advantage in this game, and expectations should match that edge.  Behind the scenes, we really need to evaluate how this group of leaders (both players & coaches) respond to being punched in the mouth.  If Michigan comes out hungry, looking to prove themselves all over again, then we can all move forward with more confidence into B1G Ten play.  I expect to see better balance and complementary football, but the offense will still be showing some growing pains.
Michigan 27 Ark. St. 6 (PRESEASON Michigan 33 Ark. St. 6)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/08/24, 1-1

SP+ Overall: 13th (↓1), 16.9

SP+ Offense: 67th (↓11), 27.7
SP+ Defense: 3rd (same), 10.9
SP+ Special Teams: 24th (↓16), 0.2

AP Poll: 17th (↓7), 503
Coaches’ Poll: 16th (↓7), 501
CFP Rank: N/A

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Michigan 12 Texas 31 – Game 2 Recap

GAME 2 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 12-31, Texas by 19
SP+ Projection: Texas by 6.5 (-12.5)
CD Projection: Texas by 6 (-13)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 2 RECAP vs. Texas

The false start by LT Myles Hinton on the first offensive snap at home was a harbinger of things to come. The Wolverines did not look sharp at any position. When there were flashes of competence, they quickly dulled into a burnt orange haze. QB Davis Warren finished 22-33 for 204 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately, most of that came in the fourth quarter when all my metrics were removed as Garbage Time. Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings combined for just 14 carries and 66 yards, an average of 4.7 yards per carry.

My pregame prediction was for Michigan to score 14 points, and a victory would require the Wolverines D to hold Texas under 20. The Longhorns looked as if they could execute any set of plays they wanted, under very little pressure. I was truly shocked that Texas could amass 374 total yards in three quarters (!!) against Wink Martindale’s unit. Some of the issues were short fields and battling uphill. But, plain and simple, the Texas offense whipped up on the Michigan defense today.

Just as the offense started out with a bad omen, special teams also tripped out of the gate. Tommy Doman punted just 28 yards after the first series went 3-and-out, allowing Texas to get out to an initial 7-0 lead. There were no other critical errors, but the Wolverines were never in a position to capitalize on a potential advantage here.

In the grand scheme of things nationally, today was much more about Texas being good as opposed to Michigan being bad. But, that doesn’t make it any easier to swallow. The Wolverines need to continue to toughen up in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Every season-long goal is still available. The challenge is now one of grit and leadership for both players and coaches. Next week, Arkansas State comes in, and hopefully Michigan can build some confidence in a “Get Right Game”. Smash!