Final Score: 30-10, Michigan by 20 over Fresno State SP+ Projection: Michigan by 27.6 (-7.6) CD Projection: Michigan by 24 (-4)
FIVE FACTORS
GAME 1 RECAP vs. Fresno State
On the offensive side of the ball, the Wolverines sputtered from start to finish. For me, that was to be expected. There is one returning starter on this unit, tight end Colston Loveland. Everyone else is stepping into a bigger role, as well as new play caller Kirk Campbell. That doesn’t mean this should be acceptable internally to the team, or externally to the fans. It’s only context to understand why we saw some struggles. Quarterback Davis Warren finished 15-25 for 118 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Tonight’s backup was Alex Orji, and he chipped in 6.4 yards per carry on the ground. The improvement focus needs to shift up front on the line. Both pass protection and interior push in the run game should be much better as the season goes along.
For large stretches of the game, the Michigan defense was absolutely dominant. The Wolverines allowed less than 100 total yards in the first half. The defensive line looked unstoppable while coordinator Wink Martindale rotated in two or three guys at most positions. Then the Bulldogs managed to spring a few big plays. Surprisingly, those big plays came against All-American cornerback Will Johnson. Johnson finished with the last laugh after cashing in a pick six to put the game on ice for good in the fourth quarter.
In the kicking game, I had no idea what to expect coming into tonight. I leave afterward pleasantly surprised. Kicker Dominic Zvada consistently put the ball into the end zone on kickoffs. He also looked cool as ice while he banged home three field goals of 45, 53, & 55 yards. Punter Tommy Doman averaged 42.5 yards in net punting. And, both Tyler Morris and Semaj Morgan looked steady catching punts.
I am looking forward to crunching the numbers here and finding the appropriate context. I expected some struggles, and we definitely saw them. There were moments of horror, but also plenty of foundational strengths to build on. Next week, in comes a national championship contender to test the Wolverines. Michigan takes on No. 4 Texas at noon right back in the Big House. Smash!
On defense, the Wolverines will challenge to be the best unit in the country again in 2024. Junior tackles Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant will garner the most attention. Josiah Stewart and Derrick Moore will start on the edges, while cornerback Will Johnson returns to lead the secondary.
Michigan enters the 2024 season defending the 2023 National Championship, and as the three-time defending B1G Ten champions. However, the college football world is totally different with conference realignment expanding the B1G Ten to eighteen teams, and the CFP expanding to include twelve teams. The football program is also turning the page from the Harbaugh era into the Sherrone Moore era.
The new staff valued consistency on offense, hiring from within the program to fill coaching holes. On defense, every position coach is new to the program, but coordinator Wink Martindale was instrumental in designing the defensive scheme run by Jesse Minter in 2023. Finally, it’s August with a bright red target painted onto the back of the Wolverines, so we kick off the return of UMGoBlue.com By the Numbers analysis with this game-by-game preview of the 2024 Michigan Football season. In the By the Numbersarticles and podcasts we will compile, review, and summarize various metrics to look deeper into the football team’s performance while trying to provide a clearer picture of how the upcoming games may turn out.
The foundation for most of my analysis comes from the ESPN SP+ college football analytics model, created by Bill Connelly. While his system is meant to be predictive for making educated bets, studying the Five Factors is also useful for understanding what a team does, or needs to do, to win football games.
What is SP+
SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date..
When it comes to predicting the outcome of Michigan Football games, I’ve tracked my own record and that of the SP+ projections, both straight up and against the spread (ATS) since I started writing for UMGoBlue.com in 2018. I track the preseason predictions (locked in August), as well as the game week predictions.
Michigan’s 3rd ranked SP+ defense will likely carry the load, especially early in the season while a new starting QB and new offensive line take time to settle in. The 2024 season does not have the same slow ramp up that the 2023 season had, so the Wolverines will need to round into shape very quickly in September to manage one of the nation’s toughest schedules.
2024 Regular Season Schedule
vs. Fresno State: 63rd Overall, 46th Offense, 88th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 27.6
PREDICTION: The national title celebration will continue into August in Ann Arbor as Wolverine fans return to the stadium and check out the 2023 signage. The Fresno State Bulldogs are no pushover, though. The former home of Kalen Deboer has new leadership again after Jeff Tedford stepped away this offseason due to health concerns and Tim Skipper takes over. I expect the Wolverines to ride the huge blue wave of energy from the fans under the lights at the Big House and overwhelm the Bulldogs early. Michigan 31 Fresno St. 7, 1-0
vs. Texas: 5th Overall, 4th Offense, 12th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: Texas by 0.2
PREDICTION: The Texas Longhorns were right in the center of conference realignment frenzy when they joined the rival Sooners from Oklahoma and jumped from the Big 12 to the SEC. This is a program that is hungry coming off a CFP semifinal loss a year ago. While I have full confidence in Michigan’s defense to keep any game close, I think the difference is Texas’ experienced QB Quinn Ewers and returning 4 of 5 starters from a very effective offensive line. Early in the season, Michigan will still be ironing out too many wrinkles, and Texas will capitalize just enough to win in Ann Arbor. Michigan 14 Texas 20, 1-1
vs. Arkansas State: 93rd Overall, 65th Offense, 122nd Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 36.6
PREDICTION: While the Red Wolves may be contenders for a Sun Belt championship this season, they get a tough draw on the schedule here catching Michigan after a loss. The week of practice that focuses on correcting the inevitable mistakes that emerge against Texas will help propel the Michigan offense forward. On the flip side, Arkansas State will struggle to stop most teams, but could really get steamrolled with a wide talent margin. I expect to see one of the Wolverines’ best performances here, and they could really light up the scoreboard. Michigan 33 Arkansas St. 6, 2-1
vs. USC: 21st Overall, 5th Offense, 83rd Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 13.6
PREDICTION: The B1G Ten slate starts off with a banger as the USC Trojans come to Ann Arbor for a 3:30 kickoff. Miller Moss steps into huge shoes at quarterback, replacing 1st overall draft pick Caleb Williams. More importantly, D’Anton Lynn steps in as defensive coordinator, replacing Alex Grinch. In simple terms, I think the defense takes a moderate step forward, but the offense takes a larger step backward. The net result is an overrated team from Los Angeles. Michigan 27 USC 10, 3-1
vs. Minnesota: 47th Overall, 89th Offense, 22nd Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 23.3
PREDICTION: PJ Fleck is still searching for the formula he used to rack up 10-win seasons for the Gophers when he first arrived in Minneapolis. While the defense has been shored up, the offense still lacks consistency. In 2024 Fleck will turn to Max Hosmer, a transfer from New Hampshire who slings it all over. I’m skeptical that Minnesota will have it figured out on offense in early October. This could be a chance for a breakout game for the Wolverines’ pass rushers. Michigan 24 Minnesota 9, 4-1
PREDICTION: The rematch of last season’s CFP National Championship game will feature two very different teams. Former friend & trusted agent Jedd Fisch takes over the program after Kalen DeBoer moved to Tuscaloosa. The Huskies are also replacing nearly every starter from their high-powered offense from a year ago, just like Michigan. I am always wary of away games in tough environments, and Seattle definitely qualifies. It’s also the first road trip of the season, and a west coast swing to boot. I predict the Wolverines will have to find a way to battle and steal a victory in a game where they may not play their best. Michigan 21 Washington 20, 5-1
PREDICTION: Michigan returns from a mid-season bye week and hits the road again to visit Champagne and take on Bret Bielma’s Illini squad. Illinois returns a good chunk of their offensive production, but they need to improve in the trenches. I like their chances to take a step forward on both the offensive and defensive lines in 2024. But, this matchup doesn’t align very well for the Illini. They want to smash a defense up the middle, and that is the strength of the Wolverines’ D. This is probably another ugly game, but I expect Michigan to win the field position battle and to chalk up another W. Michigan 20 Illinois 7, 6-1
vs. Michigan State: 71st Overall, 121st Offense, 26th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 29.9
PREDICTION: Another program looking to turn the page into a new era is just up the road in East Lansing. The Spartans hired well when they snagged Jonathon Smith from Oregon State. The turnover in personnel will keep Michigan State on the wrong side of the ledger against the best teams. However, I expect them to surprise somebody at least once in 2024. The Wolverines will not be that team. Sparty still has the full attention of the players in Ann Arbor, and the Michigan faithful will be amped up to welcome the team home to the Big House. Tough break for State. Michigan 30 Michigan State 3, 7-1
vs. Oregon: 3rd Overall, 1st Offense, 15th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: Oregon by 1.5
PREDICTION: Oregon is a trendy pick to win a B1G Ten title in their first year in the conference. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel transferred in from Oklahoma and leads the SP+ top-ranked offense. While the schedule makers created a very tough slate for the Wolverines, they do get a small break hosting the Ducks in November. Oregon will come into the game having already played Ohio State at home, as well. I think that opportunity to scout the Ducks’ best shot will give the Wolverines’ defense just enough edge to slow down Oregon. Also, by the ninth game, we’ll start to see the Michigan offensive line really moving people up front. This game will plant U-M right back into the national title conversation. Michigan 24 Oregon 13, 8-1
PREDICTION: New head coach Curt Cignetti decided he wanted to kick down the doors on his entrance into the B1G Ten, calling out not only the rival Boilermakers but Michigan and Ohio State too. The Hoosiers’ roster has also been imported from James Madison University. Even if Indiana moves leaps and bounds forward, they are still not on the same level as the Wolverines from a talent perspective. That will show in this game as depth becomes a major factor this deep into the season. Michigan 28 Indiana 10, 9-1
vs. Northwestern: 75th Overall, 117th Offense, 29th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 30.3
PREDICTION: Michigan will come off the second bye week of the season and host the Northwestern Wildcats for Senior Day at the Big House. David Braun pulled a rabbit out of his hat in 2023, leading the ‘Cats to an 8-5 finish. Many pundits questioned whether they would win any games at all. I would be surprised to see the positivity extend into 2024, though. Northwestern will still struggle to move the ball against B1G Ten teams. And, by late November they could be sporting a very thin two-deep. The Wolverines will likely keep their best stuff on the shelf in this game with many eyeballs turning toward Columbus. Michigan 23 Northwestern 6, 10-1
PREDICTION: It’s a bit startling to see Ohio State head into a season with an offense ranked as low as 25th in SP+. The Buckeyes are perennially at the top of Bill Connelly’s ratings on offense. After pinning the blame for the 2023 loss on Kyle McCord, the program forced him out via transfer to Syracuse. In comes running QB Will Howard, and new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly to call plays. These two defensive units may very well be the best two in the country, so the team who minimizes mistakes on offense and special teams is going to win. If the Wolverines were at home, I would pick them to win, but right now I lean toward a Buckeye victory in the Shoe. Michigan 17 Ohio State 21, 10-2
3rd Place in B1G Ten CFP At-Large Selection – 8th seed
Senior running back Donovan Edwards looks to carry the torch passed on by JJ McCarthy and 9 other starters from the 2023 team. Edwards has scored some of the most iconic touchdowns in Michigan football history, but now it’s his turn to be the featured back.
Final Score: 34-13, Michigan by 21 over Washington SP+ Projection: Michigan by 12.3 (+8.7) CD Projection: Michigan by 7 (+14)
FIVE FACTORS
GAME 15 CFP FINAL RECAP vs. Washington
With the National Championship on the line, the Michigan offense stayed true to their identity and mashed the Washington Huskies on the ground for 303 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. The Wolverines rocketed out of the gate with two long touchdown runs from Donovan Edwards in the first quarter, one that covered 41 yards and the other from 46 yards out. When James Turner added a field goal on Michigan’s third drive to go up 17-3 early in the second quarter, fans felt this could turn into a blowout.
But, that story did not come to be. Over the next seven drives in the second and third quarters, the Wolverines managed just one additional field goal on a short field drive, set up by the defense. JJ McCarthy never quite got into rhythm, and finished 10-18 for 140 yards passing and no touchdowns. But, McCarthy was the spark that ignited the finishing flurry for Michigan. His 22-yard scramble from near his own goal line allowed the Wolverines to flip the field position. On their second possession of the fourth quarter, up by just seven points, JJ threw a strike to Coleston Loveland over the middle for a 41 yard backbreaker. Two plays later, Blake Corum juked his way into the endzone for a 12-yard touchdown. That 14-point lead felt insurmountable with just seven minutes remaining, and it was fitting for Corum to cap it off as the heartbeat of this offensive unit.
The CFP Final game narrative fits perfectly atop the 2023 season, because the star of the show was the Michigan defense. In the premier strength-on-strength matchup for all the marbles versus Kalen DeBoer, Ryan Grubb, and an NFL-level offensive unit for the Huskies, defensive coordinator Jesse Minter reigned supreme. Heisman runner-up Michael Penix was battered by the time the clock hit zero. He finished 27-51 for 255 yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions. This is on the heels of a 430-yard, two touchdown performance the week before in the semifinals.
The defensive line proved the depth development strategy employed by Michigan in 2023 was indeed brilliant. All seven rotational defensive lineman created pressure on Penix. Mason Graham finished as the statistical leader with three tackles, and Kenneth Grant added a sack. That pressure, paired with a physical game plan from the Michigan defensive backs, yielded two interceptions at critical moments. The first interception by Will Johnson came on the opening possession of the second half and created the short field I mentioned before. The second interception was the coronation of the National Championship season: an 81-yard celebratory return by Mike Sainristil who, like Corum, embodied the perfect player to put an exclamation point on this perfect season.
The special teams unit eliminated the huge mistakes from the prior week in the Rose Bowl. Jay Harbaugh made a brilliant adjustment to the Washington punter’s low, line-drive style by utilizing two returners: one shallow and one deep. James Turner was very near the upright on a short field goal, and actually hit the upright on an extra point, but made all his kicks. And, punter Tommy Doman bounced back the best. His kicks carried an average of 47.6 yards, and a net of 43.6.
This team is the greatest team in the land, and cannot be disputed. They are forever National Champions. However, the word I will always associate with this team is unflappable. No force exists within a football stadium that could shake the 2023 Michigan Wolverines. That proved true again for the fifteenth time on Monday, January 8th, 2024. In my eyes, by realizing their year-long mission to win the title by defeating all comers, this is the greatest Michigan Football team in the 144-year history of the program. Don’t agree with such a lofty statement? Somehow they’ll show up and prove it again. Bet!
2023 SEASON RECAP
It felt shortsighted to just do a game recap after the season the Michigan Wolverines just completed. So, I want to layout briefly how I experienced this 2023 season, through a series of eight phases:
Expectations
When Blake Corum, Zak Zinter, and the other upperclassmen decided to return for another season back in January of 2023, the championship foundation was preserved. However, the stakes were raised immediately when Blake Corum called his shot in front of a crowd at Crisler Arena, stating that this team would win a National Title and go down in history. There was no turning back, the boats had been burned.
Happy Mission
Spring and summer were traditional from a program and media standpoint. There were a few questions about starting battles at offensive tackle and at the second cornerback spot, but Jim Harbaugh reiterated that his guys were embarking on a happy mission.
Harbaugh Suspension #1
A negotiated settlement with the NCAA related to 2020 dead period violations fell through at the eleventh hour. Still, the Michigan administration self-imposed a three-game suspension on Jim Harbaugh and four different assistants received an opportunity to add head coach responsibilities on game day. Developing that depth would prove to be valuable.
Big Ten Dominance
When Jim Harbaugh returned and the B1G Ten season started, the Wolverines showed they had at least another gear that they had not shown through the first four games. Back-to-back road blowouts over Nebraska and Minnesota silenced a handful of doubters who thought Michigan looked unimpressive early in the season.
Connor Stalions & Media Chaos
A media firestorm exploded when news leaked regarding support staffer Connor Stalions leading an in-person scouting operation that skirted various NCAA regulations. The news was timed and targeted to maximize the amplitude of the chaos, and triggered a chorus of complaints from B1G Ten coaches and administrators to new conference commissioner Tony Petitti.
Harbaugh Suspension #2
Tony Petitti acquiesced to the complaints and determined he would suspend Jim Harbaugh midseason for three more games. Petitti also maximized the potential damage for targeting the three toughest games on the schedule, including The Game versus Ohio State. The final salt in the wound was the timing & delivery of the announcement. The commissioner waited until the team was in flight en route to the Penn State road game, and the Michigan contingent found out via social media.
#Bet (Savage Warrior),
In response to a failed appeal for injunction in a Washtenaw County court, the administration, the team, and the fan base was incensed with the B1G Ten conference. Many hot takes were created and fired into the media environment, but the Michigan community rallied around a viral tweet sent by the players and echoed by even university president Santa Ono: Bet. The one-word rallying cry was a call to fight by saying less and doing more. The Wolverines were determined to let their actions speak. The happy mission had transformed into one taken on by savage warriors.
Confirmation & Coronation
Through all the distraction, and under the guidance of Sherrone Moore as interim head coach, the Michigan Wolverines executed a variety of game plans to continue their victorious march. Key injuries on both sides of the ball dictated how Michigan could attack the best defenses on their schedule. But, they made the key plays against Penn State, Maryland, Ohio State, Iowa, Alabama, and Washington. Over this stretch of games, the game narratives in my mind slowly shifted. It started from a place of fear that this team’s opportunity could be squandered in an epic “What If…” season. That narrative morphed to a confirmation that this team was good enough and tough enough that none of the outside forces mattered. None of the on-field foes mattered. The Rose Bowl semifinal and CFP final games were fitting coronations for the sport’s new kings.
THANK YOU
I’ll conclude with a thank you to Phil Callihan for the opportunity to contribute to the site, and for his support and flexibility that allowed me to experience this magical ride from the press box with him and his family, from home with my family, and through it all with our Michigan family. Also, thank you for reading, listening, following, and talking to us about this team.
It’s Great…to be…a Michigan Wolverine…because the ultimate team–the greatest Michigan team of all of all time!–finished their business and brought home the ultimate prize to Ann Arbor.
The Wolverines came back to force overtime on the Alabama Crimson Tide. Then Blake Corum and the Michigan defense put the finishing touches on an epic 27-20 victory in the Rose Bowl to qualify for the CFP National Championship game.
NEXT UP: vs. Washington: SP+ 12th, 18.8
PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 12.2, Michigan Win Probability 76%
The post-bowl SP+ rankings show why Bill Connelly is constantly tweaking the algorithm, especially as college football changes over time. Michigan slid to #2 overall in the rankings because Georgia won by 60 over Florida State. There is currently no way for the model to adjust for significant injuries or opt-outs, so the dozen or so missing players for the Noles were not accounted for.
Michigan Offense (12th) vs. Washington Defense (44th)
A huge advantage for Michigan exists when they have possession against the Huskies’ defense. It is not a bad defense, especially in high leverage moments. However, the Wolverines played eight opponents with defensive units ranked higher than Washington’s. I expect Sherrone Moore to do what he’s done best all season. Michigan will look for run-pass balance early on, but will rely on Blake Corum and the running game to wear down the Huskies and keep Michael Penix Jr. on the Washington sideline.
Michigan Defense (1st) vs. Washington Offense (4th)
Both fan bases point to this strength-on-strength match up and warn the other side that they haven’t seen a unit like this in 2023. While it’s true given the context of this season, I feel most comfortable with Michigan’s defense preparing for a Heisman contender at quarterback with All American wide receivers. That’s because the entire defensive philosophy and scheme was designed to contain CJ Stroud, and the Ohio State wide receiver room. Penix could very likely throw for over 300 yards again on Monday night. In 2021, Stroud threw for 394 yards and two touchdowns himself. The key will be whether Michigan can make key plays inside their own 40 yard line to force field goal attempts, or come up with 4th down stops.
PREDICTION: The culmination of this amazing 2023 season has finally arrived. The story started to build 12 full months ago when upperclassmen like Blake Corum, Michael Barrett, and Zak Zinter were considering their returns to Ann Arbor. Immediately, the bar was set as high as possible when Corum declared to Crisler Arena in February that this team would win a National Championship. Then, during the early season the Wolverines started rolling comfortably in each game. The star players rarely played much in the second half of games, allowing depth players to get a significant number of snaps on both sides of the ball. But then the tougher part of the schedule arrived, and something unexpected happened: the depth guys were still getting snaps at big moments of the big games!
After reading, listening, talking (check out the preview podcast), and processing a lot of data about how this game could go, I think Michigan’s greatest edge might be their depth. Wide receiver Tyler Morris just scored his first career touchdown to take the lead over Alabama in the Rose Bowl. Safeties Quentin Johnson & Keon Sabb were both forced into duty by an untimely injury during the fourth quarter, and they both made huge plays late. The Wolverines harassed Jalen Milroe all night while still rotating at least seven defensive linemen consistently (prayers up for Rayshaun Benny). Michigan created game plans and managed their roster for an entire season to ensure they could be as close to full strength as possible in the College Football Playoff. Now it’s time to go play the game, and earn not only the National Title, but the title of Greatest Michigan Team of All Time. Michigan 31 Washington 24
Final Score: 27-20 OT, Michigan by 7 over Alabama SP+ Projection: Michigan by 8.4 (-1.4) CD Projection: Michigan by 3 (+4)
FIVE FACTORS
GAME 14 ROSE BOWL RECAP vs. Alabama
The Michigan offense was night and day different from first half to second half. The Wolverines held a 13-10 halftime lead after gifting the Tide an extra possession, but only ran nine plays in the third quarter. Of those nine Q3 plays, only one was successful, yielding an 11% success rate for the quarter. Just when negativity started to emerge throughout Wolverine nation, JJ McCarthy and Blake Corum rose to the occasion.
Down by seven with 4:41 to go, Michigan delivered a drive for the ages. The Wolverines marched eight plays, 75 yards, highlighted by a 4th & 2 pass from McCarthy to Corum to move into Alabama territory. McCarthy finished 17-27 for 221 yards and 3 TDs, while Corum scored twice. His rushing touchdown in overtime made him the program’s all-time rushing touchdown record holder, a well deserved honor for an iconic Michigan Man.
Defensively, coordinator Jesse Minter called a masterful game. The Wolverines piled up five sacks in the first half and finished with six total for the game. As the offense sputtered in the middle of the contest, the defense repeatedly had to come up with huge stops in high leverage moments. Linebacker Junior Colson battled through multiple injuries to lead the defense with ten tackles.
No play could be any bigger than the final stop of Jalen Milroe on 4th down in overtime. Defensive end Derrick Moore made a tremendous individual play to cross the face of the offensive tackle and make contact with Milroe behind the line of scrimmage. The rest of the Wolverines finished the tackle, and the celebration was allowed to commence around the country.
The special teams unit turned in their worst performance in memory, keeping the game closer than it should have been while Michigan dominated the other phases. Semaj Morgan muffed a punt in Q1 to set up Alabama’s first half touchdown. Two poor snaps led to a missed PAT, and a missed FG. And in the most heart-stopping moment of the day, the Tide’s final punt of regulation was muffed by Jake Thaw inside the 5-yard line. No doubt Jay Harbaugh will dedicate extra practice time to cleaning these issues up this week.
This game lived up to the heavyweight slugfest that it was hyped to be. While Michigan played sloppily, they also rose to the occasion in the largest moments. In that way, this Rose Bowl championship is a fitting microcosm for the whole 2023 season. But, the work’s not finished. Onward to Houston!
