Category: Football

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By the Numbers: Game 7 vs. Northwestern

2021_04_UM20_Rutgers13_0-9

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines are coming off a bye that followed their second consecutive road victory.  The latest victory was a 32-29 nail-biter that included a little bit of everything.  We saw diving catches, interceptions, and hurdled defenders, but also bad reads and blown coverages.

NEXT UP: vs. Northwestern: 77th, 1.0

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 21.6, Michigan Win Probability 89%

Vegas lines have again landed close to SP+ model projections.  I recorded the opening line at Michigan -21.5 on Sunday, so SP+ would have chosen Michigan by 0.1 point.  The line has moved to Michigan -23.5, so Bill Connelly has recorded the pick against the spread for Northwestern. Regardless, the Wolverines will need to avoid the proverbial trap game stumble with a potential top-ten showdown in East Lansing looming next weekend.  

Michigan Offense (18th) vs. Northwestern Defense (31st) 

The Northwestern defense has traditionally been the strength of the team under Pat Fitzgerald.  However, the 2021 team’s 31st SP+ defensive ranking is very misleading.  Their preseason ranking (12th) is still carrying most of the weight.  Longtime defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz retired after 51(!) seasons of coaching.  Northwestern also ranked dead last 129th in all FBS in returning production overall, and 128th on defense specifically.  All that personnel and leadership turnover has resulted in major issues for the Wildcats, especially in their run fits.  Northwestern has allowed an average of 272 yards rushing to their 3 previous Big Ten opponents. That bodes well for the Wolverines’ rushing attack.  

Michigan Defense (9th) vs. Northwestern Offense (108th)

Michigan’s unit-versus-unit advantage will be even more lopsided when Northwestern has the ball.  The Wildcats have scored less than 25 points in 5 of their 6 games, including just 24 points and 275 yards of total offense against FCS Indiana State.  Northwestern does usually trend upward as the season progresses, and they are coming off a much cleaner performance that resulted in a 21-7 victory at home over Rutgers.  

The Wolverines’ talent advantage should allow Michigan to overwhelm the Wildcats in the trenches.  The one potential troubling matchup will be running back Evan Hull and slot receiver Stephan Robinson against the Michigan linebackers in coverage. 

PREDICTION:  Michigan returns from the bye week trying to stay focused on the task at hand without looking ahead to hugely impactful matchups down the line.  I expect the coaching staff and upperclassmen leadership will be able to keep Northwestern as the primary focus.  

From a game plan standpoint, I think Josh Gattis will return to a heavy dose of running the ball against a pretty porous Northwestern front.  It will be interesting to see how Pat Fitzgerald and his defensive staff decide to load the box, and how Gattis reacts with the passing game going over the top.  

On defense, Michigan will be trying to shore up some of the issues the linebackers have experienced since Big Ten play started.  I expect Michigan will be able to pressure QB Ryan Hillinski with 4 or 5 rushers and may challenge Josh Ross, Nikhai Hill-Green, and Junior Colson to improve their underneath pass coverage.  We’ll see if there is a trend using Hill-Green more on standard downs, and the true freshman Colson seeing his snap count increase on passing downs.
Michigan 41 Northwestern 10 (PRESEASON Michigan 24 Northwestern 20)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (date)

  • SP+ Overall: 8th (same), 20.1
  • SP+ Offense: 18th (↑8), 35.6
  • SP+ Defense: 9th (↑1), 16.1
  • SP+ Special Teams: 2nd (↑1), 0.7

AP Poll: 6th (↑2), 1,214

Coaches’ Poll: 6th (↑1), 1,299

CFP Rank: N/A

U-M Resume after Game #6
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2021 Michigan Football — Playbook — The Leap — Hassan Haskins

Let’s break down Hassan Haskins’ leaping 50 yard run versus Nebraska.

There are some nice plays on both sides of the ball. The Wolverines nearly scored a touchdown if not for some backside pursuit by Nebraska. It was crucial point in the game, with the Cornhuskers leading 49-26 with 6:27 remaining in the 4th quarter.

This is what Cade McNamara sees as the Michigan offense lines up. The Wolverines are attacking the right side the Nebraska defense. It’s 2nd down and 3 yards to go, the Cornhuskers are expecting pass, they have a safety deep (practically in the the next county) to stop the big play– they’re conceding a first down on this play call.

#25 Hassan Haskins is lined up behind Cade to take the hand-off post snap. The play will be led by #86 Luke Schoonmaker and #52 Chuck Filiaga who are pulling to point of attack.

The key players to watch on Nebraska are #9 (safety), #8 (defensive back), and #42 (linebacker).

#3 AJ Henning blocks #8 all the way downfield, #86 Luke Schoonmaker and #52 Chuck Filiaga pull and engage defenders, opening a gap for #25 Hassan Haskins after taking the handoff from #25 Cade McNamara.

At this point, #9 (the safety) moves up to tackle Haskins (note the block by #66).

And then this happened.

Credit #42 Nebraska for shaking the block by #66 Filiaga and catching Hassan Haskins. If Filiaga had been able to get his head on the other side during the block, Haskins may be scored a touchdown. But Filiaga made a great play, not only did he delay #42 he also avoided a blocking in the back penalty when which would have erased the play. The Nebraska linebackers key on the players pulling which reveals the point of attack, making Filiaga’s task more difficult.

#42 chased Haskins and eventually made the tackle. While Haskins’ leap got the raves deservedly so) the play was made possible by pulling of #86 Schoonmaker and #66 Filiaga.
It was great play by #42 to catch Haskins after the leap.