Category: Football

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Michigan 32 Nebraska 29 – Game 6 Recap

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GAME 6 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 32-29, Michigan by 3 over Nebraska
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 3.6 (-0.6)
CD Projection: Michigan by 20 (-17)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 6 RECAP @ Nebraska

Michigan fans can learn something from this 2021 Wolverines football team: enjoy the moment! The team is 6-0 heading into the bye week, and not even the most optimistic of us could have guessed that in August.

This group has a clear identity on both sides of the ball. They play hard and execute pretty cleanly, especially on special teams. They are player led, and the coaches augment the players’ positive energy. I am not saying it’s all sunshine and rainbows, but no season is. Embrace the struggle, and celebrate this team that has successfully battled through adversity together.

The offense carried Michigan to the victory today. However, I would also argue they are the main reason the game remained close. The Wolverines had a major efficiency advantage in the first half, and ran 22 more plays than Nebraska did. This ended as a 3-point victory because Michigan could not execute in the red zone and cash in more touchdowns in their 7 (!!) scoring opportunities.

Michigan racked up 219 yards rushing (sack adjusted). The Wolverines were led by Hassan Haskins’ 123 yards rushing (5.9 ypc) and 2 touchdowns. We also witnessed the return of Boom & Zoom in the 4th quarter as Haskins leapt a defender and rumbled 50 yards to set up the game-tying field goal. The drive before that saw Blake Corum zoom around the left end and race untouched into the end zone.

Defensively, Nebraska’s dual threat quarterback gave Michigan fits. Adrian Martinez went 18-of-28 for 291 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT. He also converted a handful of big 3rd downs with his legs on QB draw plays through the middle of the defense.

You have to give the Husker offensive staff a good chunk of credit. They made some very shrewd halftime adjustments. After suffering through a 21% and 17% success rate in the 1st and 2nd quarters, Nebraska bounced back to 65% success rate in the 3rd quarter, and 44% in the 4th. In the biggest moment, however, Michigan senior safety Brad Hawkins stripped Martinez as the QB ran for another 3rd down conversion. The Wolverines recovered the ball and kicked the game-winning field goal.

Once you pat Hassan Haskins on the back, the next game ball probably goes to the kicker Jake Moody. Moody was a perfect 4-for-4 on field goals, including two high-pressure kicks in the 4th quarter. He also blasted every kickoff well through the end zone to force the Cornhuskers to start nearly every drive from their own 25 yard line.

Because the Nebraska offense moved the chains reliably in the second half, we didn’t see many punt returns for AJ Henning. That may have been a blessing in disguise after Henning misjudged his last return attempt and nearly turned the ball over.

All-in-all this goes down as a tremendous team victory on the road against a team who desperately needed to win. Take a breather during the bye week, and get ready to enjoy the 2nd half of this great 2021 season. Onward!

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By the Numbers: Game 6 @ Nebraska

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LAST WEEK RECAP

The players, coaches, and even the fan base are starting to believe in Michigan as a B1G Ten East contender after the Wolverines traveled to Madison and schooled the Badgers 38-17. 

NEXT UP: @ Nebraska: 22nd, 13.5
PREGAME SP+: U-M by 3.6, Michigan Win Probability 58%

The SP+ model and the Vegas betting lines have converged in Week 6 in regard to Michigan.  There is only a 0.1 point difference in the spread, and a 1 point difference in the O/U total projection.  This spread is narrowed significantly by an adjustment for home field advantage.  We’ll see if Michigan can stay sharp on the road for the second consecutive week.  

Michigan Offense (26th) vs. Nebraska Defense (20th) 

The Wolverines are coming off another clean performance against the SP+ #3 defense from Wisconsin.  The Nebraska “black shirt” defense continues to improve, and manages to keep the Cornhuskers in every game they play.  

Michigan will have to deploy a balanced game plan, but I expect Josh Gattis to start the game by testing the interior of Nebraska’s defense.  The onus will be on the Michigan offensive line to create movement against their DL, and on Cade McNamara to make the correct reads and accurate throws on RPO opportunities behind the linebackers.

Michigan Defense (8th) vs. Nebraska Offense (34th)

On paper, the Michigan defense appears to have another significant advantage over Nebraska’s offensive unit.  One particularly lopsided match up will be on the edges of the line of scrimmage.  Aidan Hutchinson, David Ojabo, and the rest of the “Reapers” who play OLB for the  Wolverines will be too much to handle for the Huskers’ offensive tackles.  That means Scott Frost will be leaning heavily on plays that get the ball out of QB Adrian Martinez’ hands quickly as possible.  

More importantly, I think Nebraska will be extremely dependent on Martinez’ legs to move the ball by running option plays.  Surely Michigan is reviewing the film of Noah Vedral causing problems in the 2nd half of the Rutgers game.  Getting a healthy Josh Ross back into the center of the defense to make the calls and pick up formation tendencies will be a huge boost against Frost’s QB run game.

PREDICTION:  The dynamic of this game is very similar to last week as Michigan prepped for a trip to Madison.  You can add in the challenge of sitting around in a hotel all day waiting for a night game.  The atmosphere and crowd will be much more jacked up for this one.  Also, Adrian Martinez presents a much more dangerous dual threat challenge than Graham Mertz last week.   However, Martinez is prone to taking risks with the ball, and making turnover-worthy mistakes multiple times per game.  

Michigan will also leverage a clear advantage in special teams in this game.  Nebraska dropped their game against MSU specifically because of poor punting and punt coverage.  With all that said, the single largest reason that  I am much more confident that Michigan can bring their best performance on the road is the strength of the player leadership on this team makes a significant difference.  Nebraska’s penchant for making critical errors, and my confidence in Michigan’s ability to stay laser focused in the face of adversity make this feel like another multiple score victory for the Wolverines.

Michigan 33 Nebraska 13 (PRESEASON Michigan 42 Nebraska 23)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (10/3/21), 5-0

  • SP+ Overall: 8th (same), 19.7
  • SP+ Offense: 26th (↓9), 34.4
  • SP+ Defense: 8th (same), 15.3
  • SP+ Special Teams: 3rd (↑6), 0.6

AP Poll: 9th (↑5), 1,053

Coaches’ Poll: 8th (↑6), 1,125

CFP Rank: N/A

U-M Resume after Game #5
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2021 Michigan Football — Playbook — Flea Flicker — Hassan Haskins to Cade McNamara to Cornelius Johnson

Let’s break down Michigan’s first touchdown versus Wisconsin in their 38-17 victory.

The Wolverines execute a textbook example of flea flickers pass. They line up in an I-formation with two wide outs. Roman Wilson goes in motion pre-snap and the Wisconsin defensive back #21 goes with him, clearing out the left side of the field.

Look at what Cade sees pre-snap. You can #9 the safety already cheating up.

#25 Hassan Haskins is lined up behind Cade to take the hand-off post snap. By lining strong right the Wolverines cause the Wisconsin defense to shifts attackers away from the center of Michigan formation. The Michigan offensive line must prevent any defender from getting to Haskins before he can flip the ball back to McNamara. Michigan has five offensive lineman to counter Wisconsin’s nose tackle, defensive linemen, and defensive end (4).

This play targets the safety #9, who overcommits to the run when he see #25 Hassan Haskins take the hand-off from #12 Cade McNamara.

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#9 comes up to cover the run and he shifts to cover #14 Roman Wilson when the he recognizes that something is afoot. #6 Cornelius Johnson takes off to the left corner of the endzone. #21 from Wisconsin who had gone in motion to cover #14 Wilson shifts to cover Johnson but he is too late, getting turned around with his back to the play in an effort to close the gap. #11 shadows mirrors Johnson but can’t match his speed.

McNamara throws a prefect pass to Johnson and Michigan scores their first touchdown of the day.

Everything worked for Michigan to execute this play.