Category: Football

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Michigan 29 Indiana 7 – Game 9 Recap

GAME 9 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 29-7, Michigan by 22 over Indiana
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 17.9 (+4.1)
CD Projection: Michigan by 22 (✅)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 9 RECAP vs. Indiana

That was a clean sweep on the Five Factors for Michigan. Those games usually result in a ho-hum response from the media and from fans. However, that is exactly what this team needed. They played to their strengths, tried to answer a few questions from previous weeks, and rolled to a 3-score victory.

Offensively, Hassan Haskins stepped forward to carry this team once again. Haskins had 168 yards on 27 carries, both career highs. H2 was without his normal running mate, as Blake Corum only played a handful of snaps before retreating to the locker room for further evaluation of an injury.

Also, Cade McNamara showed that he is still the right QB to lead this unit. He completed 10-of-18 passes for 168 yards and 2 touchdowns. Josh Gattis clearly wanted to return to a balanced approach with his run game and passing attack. The play calls were 50/50, and yardage was almost equal as well.

The Michigan defense was back to being dominant for large swaths of this game. Outside of one drive where Indiana QB Donaven McCulley broke tackles and scrambled for big plays, the Wolverines really suffocated the Hoosiers. Indiana finished with just 195 total net yards for the whole game. While the defense bottled up the IU rushing attack (average 0.036 Expected Points Added per play), the Wolverines really attacked Indiana when they dropped back to pass. The Hoosiers’ pass plays averaged a negative EPA on the day, -0.129.

Jake Moody led the special teams unit, and cashed in another 3 field goals today. While his kickoffs were high and short, Indiana wanted no part of testing the coverage units. The return game was particularly impacted by injuries in this one. AJ Henning and Andrel Anthony both were dinged up in addition to Corum. DJ Turner filled in as the next man up returning punts. Onward to Happy Valley!

2021-09-UM-29-Indiana-7-Final-StatsDownload
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2021 Michigan Football — Playbook — Homecoming — Andrel Anthony 93 Yard TD Reception

Let’s break down the 93 yard touchdown pass from QB Cade McNamara to WR Andrel Anthony at the 11:17 mark of the 1st quarter.

It was a big play for Michigan and a triumphant return for Anthony, a true freshman, who attended East Lansing High School.

PRE-SNAP


Here is the pre-snap look at the line of scrimmage. It’s third down and five yards to go, early in the first quarter. Michigan has the three receivers to the wide side of the field– as I’ve mentioned before I love when the Gattis overload the formation with receivers like this. It gives the offense many options and causes coverage problems, if the offensive line can hold their blocks long enough for the receivers to run their routes. Michigan State has their defensive linemen ready to drive up the field to pressure McNamara.

Here’s another angle showing the key Spartan defenders targeted by the play.

POST SNAP

#15 picks up #1 Andrel Anthony, trailing him as he runs a slant pattern across the field. The safety #3 drops back and drifts to the left as Anthony crosses in front him. #6 drops back and spins in an attempt to follow Anthony. With no one to block #2 Blake Corum drifts out of the backfield and turns in case McNamara needs to dump the ball off.

Cade McNamara hits Andrel Anthony in stride as he crosses the field, exploiting a bubble in the Spartan defense, as defenders shift to cover the receivers.

Anthony gets behind #3, and then it’s off to the races.

PLAY DIAGRAM — THE ACTION

This play shows how the overloading the formation to the wide side causes problems for spartan defense. The safety #3 initially takes a few steps back while tracking the Michigan receivers, by time Anthony takes the pass he’s out of position to make a play on the speedy receiver.

Michigan called a great play, but it relied on the offensive line holding their blocks, Anthony running a precise pattern, and McNamara throwing a ball right where it needed to go.

It was a great start to what unfortunately would be a disappointing day for the Wolverines.

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By the Numbers: Game 9 vs. Indiana

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines let a 16-point lead slip through their fingers in East Lansing during a painful 37-33 loss to the Spartans.  Michigan did many positive things against Michigan State, but just couldn’t come up with the critical plays in high leverage moments.

NEXT UP: vs. Indiana: 61st, 5.3

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 17.9, Michigan Win Probability 85%
Indiana has crashed back to earth after living a charmed existence in 2020 as everyone’s favorite COVID team.  QB Michael Penix can’t stay healthy, and the Hoosiers have also lost their best defensive coverage guys to injury.  

Michigan Offense (18th) vs. Indiana Defense (41st) 

SP+ does not adjust for injured players who are missing, and that is the story of Indiana’s defense.  Their defensive backfield looked elite coming into the 2021 season.  However, they are hobbled by major injuries, most notably to cornerback Taiwan Mullen.  This matchup feels similar to how the Wolverines lined up with the Washington Huskies back in Week 2, except Indiana has lost their best cover guys.  I will be concerned if Michigan struggles for more than a series or two with their starters in this game.

Michigan Defense (8th) vs. Indiana Offense (74th)

Mike MacDonald and the Wolverine defense need a get right game.  The Hoosiers should be just what the doctor ordered.  Former Michigan backup QB Nick Sheridan has been uninspiring as offensive coordinator in Bloomington.  I don’t believe Indiana will be able to protect their own backup QB Donaven McCulley.  Indiana has come up with troublesome game plans in years past, though.  I expect the Hoosiers will attempt to exploit the Wolverines’ alignment issues versus tempo that proved to be fatal last week in East Lansing. 

PREDICTION:  Michigan will be challenged again to focus on the task at hand without looking ahead.  Nearly every matchup on paper is a sizable advantage for the Wolverines, and they are 3 touchdown favorites.  The team will not be able to disprove their most vocal doubters against this under-manned Hoosier team.  The goal must be to clean up the personnel issues on defense.  We also want to see confidence continue to build on offense.  Cade McNamara is coming off his best performance.  Now, Michigan fans would love to see a full, completely balanced performance from both the passing and rushing attacks.  I believe we’ll see continued success in terms of yardage, but this probably won’t be the game where Josh Gattis answers the red zone touchdown questions.

Michigan 32 Indiana 10 (PRESEASON Michigan 25 Indiana 17)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (10/31/21), 7-1

  • SP+ Overall: 5th (↑2), 20.8
  • SP+ Offense: 22nd 18th (same), 35.9
  • SP+ Defense: 8th (same), 15.7
  • SP+ Special Teams: 3rd (same), 0.6

AP Poll: 9th (↓3), 1,048

Coaches’ Poll: 10th (↓4), 1,050

CFP Rank: 7th

U-M Resume after Game 8