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Posted on by Clint Derringer

By the Numbers: Game 4 vs. Rutgers

2021_03_UM63__NIU10_0-10

LAST WEEK RECAP

Northern Illinois had no answers for Michigan’s offense as the Wolverines raced past the Huskies 63-10 in the final non-conference game of 2021.

NEXT UP: vs. Rutgers: 71st, 1.8

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 21.2, Michigan Win Probability 89%
The SP+ model is in love with the Wolverines.  So much so, that Bill Connelly trolled Michigan fans this past Sunday:

The (way too early) SP+ Resume model is also keeping Rutgers on the radar, currently ranking the Scarlet Knights’ 3-0 start as the 5th best resume to date. Look who is #2:

Michigan Offense (13th) vs. Rutgers Defense (43rd) 

Josh Gattis and the Michigan offense have rolled relentlessly right over the top of their first 3 opponents.  The offensive line is led by super-senior center Andrew Vastardis, who currently sits atop PFF’s blocking grade list for centers in all of FBS.  The Wolverines’ average Expected Points Added (EPA) per play reads an astounding 0.508, even after removing garbage time.  For context, the previous high average EPA for seasons I’ve tracked (back to 2016) was 0.209 in 2018.  In that 2018 season, the offense only eclipsed this current squad’s average EPA in two individual games: vs. WMU (0.750) and vs. Nebraska (0.633).

In 2020, Rutgers’ defense was able to bottle up the Michigan attack for the first half.  However, Cade McNamara’s entry to the game seemed to unlock the Wolverines’ offensive efficiency.  Michigan stormed back with 28 second-half points, and eventually held on in 3OT for a 48-42 victory.  The Scarlet Knights have also made the challenge harder on themselves.  News broke this week that two Rutgers’ defensive players, including starting CB Max Melton, will be suspended for at least this game. 

Michigan Defense (9th) vs. Rutgers Offense (87th)

When Rutgers has the ball, defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald will prioritize stopping the Knights’ rushing attack.  While they amassed 220 yards rushing in their opening win against Temple, and another 163 yards last week vs. Delaware, Rutgers could only manage 67 rushing yards in Week 2 at Syracuse (#57 defense in SP+).  This team is not built to rely on their quarterback, Noah Vedral, and the outside receivers to put up points in bunches either.  To continue their defensive success, Michigan must limit RB Isaih Pacheco’s big play ability.   

PREDICTION:  The 2021 Michigan football team is accomplishing the objectives they have communicated since Spring Ball.  First, the offense wanted to strengthen the run game and get off to a better start in each game.  Check and check.  Second, the defense wanted to install a new system that focuses on being less predictable while maintaining their aggressive nature.  Check and check.  Jim Harbaugh and his revamped staff seem energized by the early success within their respective position groups on both sides of the ball.  The upperclassmen are leading by example on the field.  Publicly all the players have maintained focus on the big picture season goals.  The program seems to effectively prioritize improving each week.  

Good vibes have started to rumble deep within the Michigan fan base.  Many folks are still very cautiously guarding their optimism and hope because they’ve been so scalded in recent seasons.  I can understand that, but try to make sure you’re appreciating and enjoying the excellent football that these kids are playing right now.  Greg Schiano has done well to improve the Rutgers program in just over one full season, but I don’t think this is a team that can disrupt Michigan’s current avalanche of enthusiasm.
Michigan 39 Rutgers 10 (PRESEASON Michigan 33 Rutgers 24)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (9/19/21), 3-0

  • SP+ Overall: 6th (same), 22.4
  • SP+ Offense: 13th (same), 37.5
  • SP+ Defense: 8th (↑1), 15.6
  • SP+ Special Teams: 2nd (↑3), 0.5

AP Poll: 19th (↑6), 456

Coaches’ Poll: 19th (↑6), 423

CFP Rank: N/A

U-M Resume after Game #3

About Clint Derringer

@clint_derringer on Twitter U-M B.A. Sport Management & Communications ‘05 U-M M.S. Program & Project Management ‘18

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