Tag: Recap

WEEK 4 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 31-7, Michigan by 24 over Rutgers
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 28.6 (-4.6)
CD Projection: Michigan by 17 (+7)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 4 RECAP vs. Rutgers

A longing feeling still remains with the offense.  It’s not very easy to put a finger on, but we can certainly feel like there is more potential remaining untapped.  But, Michigan gained over 400 yards, and again eclipsed 50% success rate in the run game.  We got an early peek at some creative play calling in the first quarter with a reverse flea flicker.  I also enjoy the two-running back formations that the Wolverines put on film today.  But, after those schemes were successful, they went back into the garage and the Wolverines methodically trampled the Rutgers defensive front.  Blake Corum finished with 97 yards and 2 touchdowns.  JJ McCarthy was cleaner today, going 15-for-21 through the air for 214 yards and a touchdown.

The defense had an unfortunate missed tackle on Rutgers’ first series of the day.  A 69-yard touchdown pass on the third snap sucked the energy right out of the building.  However, the Michigan defense flexed after the start of the 2nd quarter.  The Scarlet Knights only gained 122 yards in the final three quarters of the game.  Junior Colson led on the stat sheet with six tackles.  But, the most electric moment of the game was a 71-yard pick six by captain Mike Sainristil in the 3rd quarter.  Rutgers never seriously threatened to score again.

The kicking game also left something to be desired.   James Turner narrowly missed a 42-yard field goal wide.  Also, Jake Thaw wasn’t aggressive on an early punt and let it roll out.  The result was a 75-yard field punt that flipped the field position.  There is still no alarm to panic about, but this team will need to improve their special teams execution to win the biggest games on the schedule. 

Overall, the Wolverines have held serve through these opening four home games.  Now, Michigan must pack a few more improvements into their suitcases and travel for the first time in 2023 next week.  We’ll keep an eye on exactly how good a win this ends up being over Rutgers.  I think that team should head to a bowl this season, and might surprise one or two B1G teams, also.  Onward!

GAME 3 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 31-6, Michigan by 25 over BGSU
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 45.1 (-20.1)
CD Projection: Michigan by 33 (-8)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 3 RECAP vs. Bowling Green

Do you want the good news first, or the bad news? For the third consecutive week, Michigan had one phase of the offense humming, but struggled in the other. JJ McCarthy threw 3 interceptions, all of them on scoring opportunities inside Bowling Green’s 40-yard line. In addition to the turnovers, he also missed a few open receivers with his eyes, and a couple with his arm. While the passing attack struggled, Michigan returned to sky-high success rate on the ground (68%). Blake Corum kicked the game off with a 54-yard scamper, and Donovan Edwards also averaged 5.6 yards per carry for the game.

The defense was physically dominant again for the third consecutive week. On a night that Michigan turned the ball over four times, the shut out potential was lost early. However, the pass rush and ball-hawking secondary combined to create three turnovers to help balance the scales. One particular highlight was Mason Graham pressuring the Falcons’ quarterback on a screen pass that was picked off by tackle Kris Jenkins. Jenkins had his eyes on the end zone, but was dragged down just short. Corum pounded the ball in for Michigan’s third touchdown.

Special teams was uncharacteristically sloppy as well. The most costly event was a fumbled pooch kick by Max Bredeson after Bowling Green’s first field goal. That quick change resulted in the second score allowed by the defensive unit, but they would not allow any more. On the positive side of the ledger, James Turner looks like he’s settled in as the place kicker. Also, both Jake Thaw and Tyler Morris were sure-handed while fielding bouncing punts.

This was a text book example of an ugly win. The Wolverines were able to win comfortably based on their defensive line dominance and creating explosive offensive plays. This might be the ugliest of the three games we’ve seen in 2023, but the concern is that we still haven’t seen a complete performance from Michigan. The next test from Rutgers will force the Wolverines to put all the pieces together. The Scarlet Knights come to Ann Arbor next week with a 3-0 record. Onward!

CFP SEMIFINAL GAME PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 45-51, TCU by 6 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 9.3 (-15.3)
CD Projection: Michigan by 13 (-19)

FIVE FACTORS

CFP SEMIFINAL GAME RECAP vs. TCU

If you had told me that JJ McCarthy’s stat line would be equal to or better than Max Duggan’s at the end of this game, I would have gladly signed myself up for that outcome. While Duggan was 14/29 for 225 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs, McCarthy finished 20/34 for 343 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs (both became lethal pick-sixes). Both QBs added to the rushing attack also, and both found the end zone.

However, we knew the Michigan rushing attack was what mattered most. After the first snap saw Donovan Edwards flash for 54 yards, the Wolverines were unable to punch it into the end zone. Michigan’s 39% Success Rate on run plays was on par with their OSU performance, but the explosiveness was not the same after the first snap. Averaging 4.9 yards per run play was a full yard short of their season average of 5.9 YPP. The frantic game pace, and playing from behind the entire night, also forced Michigan to rely on the pass much more than normal.

Defensively, Michigan surrendered more huge explosive plays in this game than any other. TCU created four plays greater than 30 yards (32, 46, 69, 76) and they got larger as the game progressed. No other game saw more than two such plays against the Wolverines’ defense, and only two of those previous plays came in the 2nd half (48-yard pass by PSU and a 44-yard pass by OSU).

While the secondary accomplished what I had hoped in coverage versus TCU’s talented outside WRs, it was brutal to see too many missed tackles in critical spots. Both the 69-yard run (eventually tackled at the 1 yard line) and the 76-yard touchdown pass in the second half had the potential to be stopped short.

The special teams were another strength throughout the season. While the kicking units were mostly reliable in this game, a 31-yard punt return allowed in the 4th quarter led to a TCU field goal. That one negative blip is counteracted by the career-long 59-yard field goal nailed by Jake Moody on the final snap of the first half. The kick set a Michigan record for longest field goal, as well as the Fiesta Bowl record. A fitting end to a legendary individual career for Moody.

In most of the traditional statistical categories, Michigan finished with a slight edge. But, this game came down to the high-leverage moments, as all close football games do. When all the chips were on the table, Max Duggan and the TCU Horned Frogs were able to answer the challenge. Michigan’s sloppiness down to down forced the Wolverines into a shootout that TCU was certainly more accustomed to. It was quite a feat for Michigan to continue to answer the bell from behind, and they repeatedly showed the heart of champions.

The 2022 season was absolutely another step forward for the Michigan football program. There is a bitter taste that comes with falling short of their National Championship goals, and it’s especially sour to play less than your best in the last game. But, with all that said, this team is one of the greatest Michigan teams of all-time. And, the foundation for optimism heading into 2023 is just as strong as it was heading into this year. Now, the work begins to prepare to take the final few steps to the pinnacle of the sport. Onward!