Tag: Recap

Posted on

Michigan 31 Maryland 24 – Game 11 Recap

GAME 11 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 31-24, Michigan by 7 over Maryland
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 20.9 (-13.9)
CD Projection: Michigan by 26 (-19)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 11 RECAP @ Maryland

A common assumption coming into this trap game was that big chunks of Michigan’s play book were likely off limits. JJ McCarthy kept for a short loss on just one surprising read option. Also, I don’t recall a single target for Donovan Edwards in the air. For the 2nd consecutive week, the Wolverines succeeded in winning on the road using predominantly their base run & pass plays. JJ was a bit off target, going 12-23 for 141 yards, 0 TD & 1 INT. Also of note, starting tackle Ladarius Henderson was not available, and back up Myles Hinton also limped off in the second half.

The Michigan defense provided much more firepower against the Terrapins, but also caused concern. Mike Sainristil stepped forward as a clutch play maker once again with two interceptions. Linebacker depth caused fear when senior Mike Barrett stayed down with an upper body injury, although he returned in the second half. Earlier in the game Barrett’s strip-sack led to Derrick Moore’s defensive touchdown.

Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham both created havoc from their tackle positions. However, we saw multiple DBs, including Sainristil & Will Johnson, give up explosive plays on vertical routes. Playing a bend but don’t break defensive game plan allows some run game success and underneath passes. But, the Wolverines also struggled versus double moves. This test will resurface very soon, from much more talented receivers.

The special teams units were the true stars of the 1,000th win for Michigan. Christian Boivin blocked a punt in the 1st quarter, leading to a 2-point safety. Punter Tommy Doman punted 5 times, averaging 47.2 yards per kick (average net 41 yards). His best came last: a golf shot downed at the Maryland 1 yard line. The Wolverines would get another safety on the ensuing defensive series.

Michigan fans understand being anxious during Game #11. The Wolverines tend to simplify their game plan, and also focus on reducing injury risk with the Buckeyes looming. This particular example weighed extra heavy given the ongoing NCAA investigation and Jim Harbaugh’s 3-game suspension. However, the Wolverines are 11-0 and still have every goal to compete for when Ohio State comes to Ann Arbor in just over six days. Onward!

Posted on

Michigan 41 Purdue 13 – Game 9 Recap

GAME 9 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 41-13, Michigan by 28 over Purdue
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 36.1 (-8.1)
CD Projection: Michigan by 30 (-2)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 9 RECAP vs. Purdue

The Wolverines didn’t have their best night on offense. Actually, it could have been their worst of the season by some metrics. It was the lowest success rate of 2023 (44%), and their lowest yards/play (6.4). However, they still managed to put 41 points on the board, scored on 7 of their 13 drives, and converted 5.4 points per scoring opportunity. While JJ was admittedly a bit off target (2nd worst performance of the year by my eye), he still completed 65% of his passes for 335 yards. If this is the floor in terms of execution for this offense, that is absolutely good enough to win the remainder of their B1G Ten games.

For most of the second half, Purdue had 6 points on the board that came off two turnovers in Michigan’s end. While the Wolverines weren’t playing in the Purdue backfield the way I expected, they still held the Boilermakers to 24% success rate and just 3.0 points per scoring opportunity. However, the last touchdown leaves a little bit of a sour taste in my mouth. The game situation (4th & 3 with :20 on the clock) told me Purdue would go for the end zone on that play if the offense took the field. Sure enough, the corner got beat on a double move and gave up a touchdown. It was just one bad snap during garbage time, but it’s not the first time that lack of focus hurt this defense. On the positive side, big hat tip to tonight’s leading tackler: Makari Paige. He is becoming a player whose presence you can feel from snap-to-snap.

On special teams, I feel a bit let down as I started to get comfortable with Tyler Morris back on punt return. His error was not easy to spot on the muffed punt. It looks somewhat random that a blocker gets hit with the ball. The key is, though, Morris has to be more aggressive getting to that spot, and also communicating to the rest of his guys to clear the way. Jake Thaw took over from that point forward and did a fine job, including a big return of 32 yards. James Turner looked great on his FG attempts and extra points.

In the context of purely football and season objectives, this is another dominant performance for a 9-0 team that has a great chance to compete for a national title. Looking at the schedule, I wasn’t surprised to see a little discontinuity the week before playing Penn State. And, given the media firestorm around Signgate, I think this team did a fine job keeping the main thing the main thing. Hopefully they can keep their heads down and keep grinding, while conference and school leaders can hash out the rest of this drama without undercutting this team. Onward!

Posted on

Michigan 49 Michigan State 0 – Game 8 Recap

GAME 8 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 49-0, Michigan by 49 over Michigan State
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 19.5 (+29.5)
CD Projection: Michigan by 27 (+22)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 8 RECAP vs. Michigan State

Another team decided to create a game plan to stop the Michigan run game. While Michigan managed to hit the magic number 50% success rate on the ground, the Spartans held the Wolverines to 2.8 yards per run play (stats removed once the score was out of hand). Fortunately for Michigan, JJ McCarthy may be the best QB in the country. McCarthy had no problem throwing the team on his back and slaughtering the Spartan defense, finishing 21-27 for 287 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2+ quarters of action. Colston Loveland caught 2 of those touchdowns on twin 22-yard receptions, while AJ Barner and Roman Wilson also found the end zone. JJ and the starters were so efficient that Michigan’s depth players were able to play almost the entire second half.

On the other side of the ball, Jesse Minter and Steve Clinkscale finally put the finishing touches on a shutout for the Michigan defense. For the second time in B1G Ten play, the defensive unit outscored the opponent’s offensive unit thanks to another Pick-Six by captain Mike Sainristil in the 3rd quarter. Linebacker Junior Colson had a great bounce back game, leading the team in tackles with 11. Edge player Braiden McGregor led in the tackles-for-loss (TFL) column with 1.5. Eight different players made a play in the Spartan backfield as the Wolverines accumulated 8 TFLs total on the night.

All of the special teams units combined to execute cleanly with no major mistakes, which was the primary objective against an overmatched rival. The main item of note was that Tyler Morris seems to have seized control of the punt return role. He also made a good decision to field a bouncing punt, and did so cleanly and avoided taking a major hit in the process. I look forward to future explosive plays from Morris as a returner.

A road game against a bitter rival amidst major off-field distractions posed a major threat to derail Michigan’s special season to this point. Instead, the Wolverines seemed even more locked in and focused on the task at hand. It was another dominant performance in a season full of similar games against overwhelmed foes. This one was the most complete decimation to date, and I am glad they saved such a beat down for Sparty. Next is a bye week to rest and heal for the pivotal November stretch of B1G Ten games. Onward!

Posted on

Michigan 52 Indiana 7 – Game 7 Recap

GAME 7 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 52-7, Michigan by 45 over Indiana
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 36.5 (+8.5)
CD Projection: Michigan by 35 (+10)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 7 RECAP vs. Indiana

In this game, the Michigan offense dealt with the positive and negative sides of the coin through the whole game. The positive: JJ McCarthy and the passing attack were hyper-efficient yet again. JJ went 14-for17, racking up 222 yards and 3 touchdowns. Jack Tuttle took over in the 4th quarter and went 5-for-5 and also connected for a touchdown against his former team. The negative: McCarthy was sacked as many times in this game as he had been all of the first six games combined. Also, the running game produced a 40% success rate, two points behind what Indiana could muster (42%). There is a lot to learn from this week’s film sessions.

I expected Indiana to be able to find some success early in this game. For one, they were coming off a bye week, so hey had some extra time to prepare. Also, they canned their previous offensive coordinator before the bye, so significant change was inevitable, and really they could only improve from where they had been. That said, the Wolverine defenders were disruptive today, forcing 4 turnovers. That was plenty to boost the Michigan offense out of a slow start, and snatched the fire out of the Hoosiers.

Special teams MVP goes to Tommy Doman for pounding touchbacks on many kickoffs today, avoiding the extra touches for Indiana’s best player Jaylin Lucas. Special mention to Tyler Morris who electrified the crowd again on a 27-yard punt return in the 2nd quarter.

The Wolverines didn’t play their best game, and still finished ahead by 6+ touchdowns on he scoreboard. We have heard Jim Harbaugh happily accept an “ugly win” in the past. He may have just invented the “ugly blowout”. Regardless, Michigan is 7-0 and heads to East Lansing for rivalry week before taking a much deserved week off. Onward!

Posted on

Michigan 52 Minnesota 10 – Game 6 Recap

GAME 6 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 52-10, Michigan by 42 over Minnesota
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 18.5 (+23.5)
CD Projection: Michigan by 27 (+15)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 6 RECAP @ Minnesota

The Wolverines have settled on their starting five offensive linemen, and it paid off. Michigan put up a 67% success rate against Minnesota, who came into the contest as the 28th ranked defense, per SP+. That is the 2nd highest mark of the season for Michigan (68% vs. Bowling Green). JJ McCarthy was also solid in the passing game with a 70% completion rate, 219 yards, and a touchdown to Colston Loveland. The most impactful part of McCarthy’s game was adding 2 touchdown runs. The QB run game must officially be accounted for by the rest of the defensive coordinators on Michigan’s schedule.

We’ve seen the Michigan defense give up an explosive score early (vs. Rutgers), and a few times late (most recently Nebraska). This time, the cringe-worthy play happened just before halftime when Minnesota’s WR Daniel Jackson beat Mike Sainristil on a fade route late in the 2nd quarter. After the Wolverines were staying blocked on some outside zone runs, this looked like there could be significant question marks. Then the 2nd half arrived, and Mason Graham and his partners smothered the Golden Gophers, allowing only 46 total yards after half time.

On special teams, James Turner has settled in as the place kicker. He has shown a strong leg, and looked solid on all 7 (!) extra points while also converting a chip shot field goal. Jake Thaw and Tyler Morris continue to compete for the punt return duties. Seems like Thaw is the “safe” option, while Morris probably has more upside for an explosive return.

While the B1G Ten season’s opening three games have come against similar opponent profiles (Rutgers, Nebraska, & Minnesota), we are seeing the Wolverines continually improve week after week. The offensive line is settling in, but there is still room to grow as the running backs continue to look to add more big runs. The interior defensive line appears unblock-able for long stretches in every game, but there are still cracks visible in the secondary. This team is playing extraordinarily well, but the scariest thing is that they might not be at their peak. Yet.