Tag: Recap

Posted on

Michigan 52 Minnesota 10 – Game 6 Recap

GAME 6 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 52-10, Michigan by 42 over Minnesota
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 18.5 (+23.5)
CD Projection: Michigan by 27 (+15)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 6 RECAP @ Minnesota

The Wolverines have settled on their starting five offensive linemen, and it paid off. Michigan put up a 67% success rate against Minnesota, who came into the contest as the 28th ranked defense, per SP+. That is the 2nd highest mark of the season for Michigan (68% vs. Bowling Green). JJ McCarthy was also solid in the passing game with a 70% completion rate, 219 yards, and a touchdown to Colston Loveland. The most impactful part of McCarthy’s game was adding 2 touchdown runs. The QB run game must officially be accounted for by the rest of the defensive coordinators on Michigan’s schedule.

We’ve seen the Michigan defense give up an explosive score early (vs. Rutgers), and a few times late (most recently Nebraska). This time, the cringe-worthy play happened just before halftime when Minnesota’s WR Daniel Jackson beat Mike Sainristil on a fade route late in the 2nd quarter. After the Wolverines were staying blocked on some outside zone runs, this looked like there could be significant question marks. Then the 2nd half arrived, and Mason Graham and his partners smothered the Golden Gophers, allowing only 46 total yards after half time.

On special teams, James Turner has settled in as the place kicker. He has shown a strong leg, and looked solid on all 7 (!) extra points while also converting a chip shot field goal. Jake Thaw and Tyler Morris continue to compete for the punt return duties. Seems like Thaw is the “safe” option, while Morris probably has more upside for an explosive return.

While the B1G Ten season’s opening three games have come against similar opponent profiles (Rutgers, Nebraska, & Minnesota), we are seeing the Wolverines continually improve week after week. The offensive line is settling in, but there is still room to grow as the running backs continue to look to add more big runs. The interior defensive line appears unblock-able for long stretches in every game, but there are still cracks visible in the secondary. This team is playing extraordinarily well, but the scariest thing is that they might not be at their peak. Yet.

Posted on

Michigan 31 Rutgers 7 – Game 4 Recap

WEEK 4 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 31-7, Michigan by 24 over Rutgers
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 28.6 (-4.6)
CD Projection: Michigan by 17 (+7)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 4 RECAP vs. Rutgers

A longing feeling still remains with the offense.  It’s not very easy to put a finger on, but we can certainly feel like there is more potential remaining untapped.  But, Michigan gained over 400 yards, and again eclipsed 50% success rate in the run game.  We got an early peek at some creative play calling in the first quarter with a reverse flea flicker.  I also enjoy the two-running back formations that the Wolverines put on film today.  But, after those schemes were successful, they went back into the garage and the Wolverines methodically trampled the Rutgers defensive front.  Blake Corum finished with 97 yards and 2 touchdowns.  JJ McCarthy was cleaner today, going 15-for-21 through the air for 214 yards and a touchdown.

The defense had an unfortunate missed tackle on Rutgers’ first series of the day.  A 69-yard touchdown pass on the third snap sucked the energy right out of the building.  However, the Michigan defense flexed after the start of the 2nd quarter.  The Scarlet Knights only gained 122 yards in the final three quarters of the game.  Junior Colson led on the stat sheet with six tackles.  But, the most electric moment of the game was a 71-yard pick six by captain Mike Sainristil in the 3rd quarter.  Rutgers never seriously threatened to score again.

The kicking game also left something to be desired.   James Turner narrowly missed a 42-yard field goal wide.  Also, Jake Thaw wasn’t aggressive on an early punt and let it roll out.  The result was a 75-yard field punt that flipped the field position.  There is still no alarm to panic about, but this team will need to improve their special teams execution to win the biggest games on the schedule. 

Overall, the Wolverines have held serve through these opening four home games.  Now, Michigan must pack a few more improvements into their suitcases and travel for the first time in 2023 next week.  We’ll keep an eye on exactly how good a win this ends up being over Rutgers.  I think that team should head to a bowl this season, and might surprise one or two B1G teams, also.  Onward!

Posted on

Michigan 31 Bowling Green 6 – Game 3 Recap

GAME 3 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 31-6, Michigan by 25 over BGSU
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 45.1 (-20.1)
CD Projection: Michigan by 33 (-8)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 3 RECAP vs. Bowling Green

Do you want the good news first, or the bad news? For the third consecutive week, Michigan had one phase of the offense humming, but struggled in the other. JJ McCarthy threw 3 interceptions, all of them on scoring opportunities inside Bowling Green’s 40-yard line. In addition to the turnovers, he also missed a few open receivers with his eyes, and a couple with his arm. While the passing attack struggled, Michigan returned to sky-high success rate on the ground (68%). Blake Corum kicked the game off with a 54-yard scamper, and Donovan Edwards also averaged 5.6 yards per carry for the game.

The defense was physically dominant again for the third consecutive week. On a night that Michigan turned the ball over four times, the shut out potential was lost early. However, the pass rush and ball-hawking secondary combined to create three turnovers to help balance the scales. One particular highlight was Mason Graham pressuring the Falcons’ quarterback on a screen pass that was picked off by tackle Kris Jenkins. Jenkins had his eyes on the end zone, but was dragged down just short. Corum pounded the ball in for Michigan’s third touchdown.

Special teams was uncharacteristically sloppy as well. The most costly event was a fumbled pooch kick by Max Bredeson after Bowling Green’s first field goal. That quick change resulted in the second score allowed by the defensive unit, but they would not allow any more. On the positive side of the ledger, James Turner looks like he’s settled in as the place kicker. Also, both Jake Thaw and Tyler Morris were sure-handed while fielding bouncing punts.

This was a text book example of an ugly win. The Wolverines were able to win comfortably based on their defensive line dominance and creating explosive offensive plays. This might be the ugliest of the three games we’ve seen in 2023, but the concern is that we still haven’t seen a complete performance from Michigan. The next test from Rutgers will force the Wolverines to put all the pieces together. The Scarlet Knights come to Ann Arbor next week with a 3-0 record. Onward!

Posted on

Michigan 35 UNLV 7 – Game 2 Recap

GAME 2 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 35-7, Michigan by 28 over UNLV
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 40.2 (-12.2)
CD Projection: Michigan by 33 (-5)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 2 RECAP vs. UNLV

JJ McCarthy was able to match his Week 1 performance going 22-25 through the air for 278 yards and 2 touchdowns. Eventually, the Wolverines nudged their rushing total up to 179 yards, but there is still a feel that they have another gear or maybe two gears they haven’t hit yet in 2023. We did see the Wolverines add the quarterback to the running attack. McCarthy had a 17 yard run on a keeper to set up a Blake Corum touchdown.

The most entertainment value in the 2nd half came from another shutout watch for Jesse Minter’s defense. Michigan set up shop in the UNLV backfield and finished with 10 tackles for loss. Perhaps the most valuable part of the game was adding snaps and reps for the players down the depth chart. The Wolverines were again without Rod Moore and Will Johnson for most of this game as a precaution. Today Quinten Johnson made some impact from the safety position, especially as a blitzer.

James Turner didn’t get any field goal opportunities, but was a perfect 5-for-5 on extra points. In the return game, Semaj Morgan and Kalel Mullings both had 20+ yard kick returns, and we saw a flash of explosiveness from Tyler Morris on punt return. Morris made his first appearance this week after sitting out the opener with a minor injury, and also made a great 3rd down catch in the first half.

Hard to find a whole lot to nit pick in Michigan’s second consecutive solid performance. The defense might be more dominant than 2022 if the pass rush continues to ascend for the defensive line. JJ McCarthy is playing nearly perfectly, albeit versus two lackluster defensive units. Once Michigan settles on their offensive line starters, and Blake Corum knocks the rest of the recovery rust off, the Wolverines seem primed to unleash their full potential in the Big Ten season. Onward!

Posted on

Michigan 30 East Carolina 3 – Game 1 Recap

GAME 1 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 30-3, Michigan by 27 over ECU
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 40.9 (-13.9)
CD Projection: Michigan by 32 (-5)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 1 RECAP vs. ECU

Offensively, the number that stands out is 60(%).  Michigan called pass plays 60% of the snaps that were non-garbage time against ECU.  That clarifies an increased focus on letting J.J. McCarthy have more control over the game.  He stepped up to the challenge by going 26-of-30 for 280 yards and connecting for 3 touchdowns to Roman Wilson.  There were hiccups, as we expected, with the offense in Sherrone Moore’s absence.  However, I expect that will smooth out when Moore returns and the offensive line continues to gel together.

The defense was robbed of a shutout on the final snap of the game.  ECU settled for the saddest possible 33-yard field goal to get onto the scoreboard with 0:05 left in the game.  The Wolverines gained a lot of game experience for their younger players, especially in the secondary.  With Will Johnson and Rod Moore both sitting out, Keon Sabb and Jyaire Hill stepped in admirably.  Kenneth Grant showed that he will be adding value to the interior pass rush.  He was in the face of ECU quarterback Mason Garcia to force an interception by Mike Sainristil.

2023_01__UM30_ECU3_PSC_-1

Image of

There was almost no way to sustain the kicking game level we’re used to from the Jake Moody / Brad Robbins era.  James Turner’s nerves got the best of him as he missed an extra point.  However, he showed plenty of leg while he nailed a 50-yard field goal in the first half, and missed a 53-yarder wide in the second half.

Overall, I didn’t see anything that made me change my expectations for the early portion of the season.  It was very encouraging to see an offensive commitment to the pass game, and we know the run game will sort itself out to some extent.  Other than the players who sat out, I think the Wolverines managed to stay healthy.  Next, Michigan will look to play a cleaner game under two different acting head coaches when they take on UNLV for Game #2.  Onward!