Tag: Recap

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Michigan 52 Indiana 7 – Game 7 Recap

GAME 7 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 52-7, Michigan by 45 over Indiana
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 36.5 (+8.5)
CD Projection: Michigan by 35 (+10)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 7 RECAP vs. Indiana

In this game, the Michigan offense dealt with the positive and negative sides of the coin through the whole game. The positive: JJ McCarthy and the passing attack were hyper-efficient yet again. JJ went 14-for17, racking up 222 yards and 3 touchdowns. Jack Tuttle took over in the 4th quarter and went 5-for-5 and also connected for a touchdown against his former team. The negative: McCarthy was sacked as many times in this game as he had been all of the first six games combined. Also, the running game produced a 40% success rate, two points behind what Indiana could muster (42%). There is a lot to learn from this week’s film sessions.

I expected Indiana to be able to find some success early in this game. For one, they were coming off a bye week, so hey had some extra time to prepare. Also, they canned their previous offensive coordinator before the bye, so significant change was inevitable, and really they could only improve from where they had been. That said, the Wolverine defenders were disruptive today, forcing 4 turnovers. That was plenty to boost the Michigan offense out of a slow start, and snatched the fire out of the Hoosiers.

Special teams MVP goes to Tommy Doman for pounding touchbacks on many kickoffs today, avoiding the extra touches for Indiana’s best player Jaylin Lucas. Special mention to Tyler Morris who electrified the crowd again on a 27-yard punt return in the 2nd quarter.

The Wolverines didn’t play their best game, and still finished ahead by 6+ touchdowns on he scoreboard. We have heard Jim Harbaugh happily accept an “ugly win” in the past. He may have just invented the “ugly blowout”. Regardless, Michigan is 7-0 and heads to East Lansing for rivalry week before taking a much deserved week off. Onward!

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Michigan 52 Minnesota 10 – Game 6 Recap

GAME 6 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 52-10, Michigan by 42 over Minnesota
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 18.5 (+23.5)
CD Projection: Michigan by 27 (+15)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 6 RECAP @ Minnesota

The Wolverines have settled on their starting five offensive linemen, and it paid off. Michigan put up a 67% success rate against Minnesota, who came into the contest as the 28th ranked defense, per SP+. That is the 2nd highest mark of the season for Michigan (68% vs. Bowling Green). JJ McCarthy was also solid in the passing game with a 70% completion rate, 219 yards, and a touchdown to Colston Loveland. The most impactful part of McCarthy’s game was adding 2 touchdown runs. The QB run game must officially be accounted for by the rest of the defensive coordinators on Michigan’s schedule.

We’ve seen the Michigan defense give up an explosive score early (vs. Rutgers), and a few times late (most recently Nebraska). This time, the cringe-worthy play happened just before halftime when Minnesota’s WR Daniel Jackson beat Mike Sainristil on a fade route late in the 2nd quarter. After the Wolverines were staying blocked on some outside zone runs, this looked like there could be significant question marks. Then the 2nd half arrived, and Mason Graham and his partners smothered the Golden Gophers, allowing only 46 total yards after half time.

On special teams, James Turner has settled in as the place kicker. He has shown a strong leg, and looked solid on all 7 (!) extra points while also converting a chip shot field goal. Jake Thaw and Tyler Morris continue to compete for the punt return duties. Seems like Thaw is the “safe” option, while Morris probably has more upside for an explosive return.

While the B1G Ten season’s opening three games have come against similar opponent profiles (Rutgers, Nebraska, & Minnesota), we are seeing the Wolverines continually improve week after week. The offensive line is settling in, but there is still room to grow as the running backs continue to look to add more big runs. The interior defensive line appears unblock-able for long stretches in every game, but there are still cracks visible in the secondary. This team is playing extraordinarily well, but the scariest thing is that they might not be at their peak. Yet.

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Michigan 31 Rutgers 7 – Game 4 Recap

WEEK 4 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 31-7, Michigan by 24 over Rutgers
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 28.6 (-4.6)
CD Projection: Michigan by 17 (+7)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 4 RECAP vs. Rutgers

A longing feeling still remains with the offense.  It’s not very easy to put a finger on, but we can certainly feel like there is more potential remaining untapped.  But, Michigan gained over 400 yards, and again eclipsed 50% success rate in the run game.  We got an early peek at some creative play calling in the first quarter with a reverse flea flicker.  I also enjoy the two-running back formations that the Wolverines put on film today.  But, after those schemes were successful, they went back into the garage and the Wolverines methodically trampled the Rutgers defensive front.  Blake Corum finished with 97 yards and 2 touchdowns.  JJ McCarthy was cleaner today, going 15-for-21 through the air for 214 yards and a touchdown.

The defense had an unfortunate missed tackle on Rutgers’ first series of the day.  A 69-yard touchdown pass on the third snap sucked the energy right out of the building.  However, the Michigan defense flexed after the start of the 2nd quarter.  The Scarlet Knights only gained 122 yards in the final three quarters of the game.  Junior Colson led on the stat sheet with six tackles.  But, the most electric moment of the game was a 71-yard pick six by captain Mike Sainristil in the 3rd quarter.  Rutgers never seriously threatened to score again.

The kicking game also left something to be desired.   James Turner narrowly missed a 42-yard field goal wide.  Also, Jake Thaw wasn’t aggressive on an early punt and let it roll out.  The result was a 75-yard field punt that flipped the field position.  There is still no alarm to panic about, but this team will need to improve their special teams execution to win the biggest games on the schedule. 

Overall, the Wolverines have held serve through these opening four home games.  Now, Michigan must pack a few more improvements into their suitcases and travel for the first time in 2023 next week.  We’ll keep an eye on exactly how good a win this ends up being over Rutgers.  I think that team should head to a bowl this season, and might surprise one or two B1G teams, also.  Onward!

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Michigan 31 Bowling Green 6 – Game 3 Recap

GAME 3 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 31-6, Michigan by 25 over BGSU
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 45.1 (-20.1)
CD Projection: Michigan by 33 (-8)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 3 RECAP vs. Bowling Green

Do you want the good news first, or the bad news? For the third consecutive week, Michigan had one phase of the offense humming, but struggled in the other. JJ McCarthy threw 3 interceptions, all of them on scoring opportunities inside Bowling Green’s 40-yard line. In addition to the turnovers, he also missed a few open receivers with his eyes, and a couple with his arm. While the passing attack struggled, Michigan returned to sky-high success rate on the ground (68%). Blake Corum kicked the game off with a 54-yard scamper, and Donovan Edwards also averaged 5.6 yards per carry for the game.

The defense was physically dominant again for the third consecutive week. On a night that Michigan turned the ball over four times, the shut out potential was lost early. However, the pass rush and ball-hawking secondary combined to create three turnovers to help balance the scales. One particular highlight was Mason Graham pressuring the Falcons’ quarterback on a screen pass that was picked off by tackle Kris Jenkins. Jenkins had his eyes on the end zone, but was dragged down just short. Corum pounded the ball in for Michigan’s third touchdown.

Special teams was uncharacteristically sloppy as well. The most costly event was a fumbled pooch kick by Max Bredeson after Bowling Green’s first field goal. That quick change resulted in the second score allowed by the defensive unit, but they would not allow any more. On the positive side of the ledger, James Turner looks like he’s settled in as the place kicker. Also, both Jake Thaw and Tyler Morris were sure-handed while fielding bouncing punts.

This was a text book example of an ugly win. The Wolverines were able to win comfortably based on their defensive line dominance and creating explosive offensive plays. This might be the ugliest of the three games we’ve seen in 2023, but the concern is that we still haven’t seen a complete performance from Michigan. The next test from Rutgers will force the Wolverines to put all the pieces together. The Scarlet Knights come to Ann Arbor next week with a 3-0 record. Onward!

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Michigan 35 UNLV 7 – Game 2 Recap

GAME 2 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 35-7, Michigan by 28 over UNLV
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 40.2 (-12.2)
CD Projection: Michigan by 33 (-5)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 2 RECAP vs. UNLV

JJ McCarthy was able to match his Week 1 performance going 22-25 through the air for 278 yards and 2 touchdowns. Eventually, the Wolverines nudged their rushing total up to 179 yards, but there is still a feel that they have another gear or maybe two gears they haven’t hit yet in 2023. We did see the Wolverines add the quarterback to the running attack. McCarthy had a 17 yard run on a keeper to set up a Blake Corum touchdown.

The most entertainment value in the 2nd half came from another shutout watch for Jesse Minter’s defense. Michigan set up shop in the UNLV backfield and finished with 10 tackles for loss. Perhaps the most valuable part of the game was adding snaps and reps for the players down the depth chart. The Wolverines were again without Rod Moore and Will Johnson for most of this game as a precaution. Today Quinten Johnson made some impact from the safety position, especially as a blitzer.

James Turner didn’t get any field goal opportunities, but was a perfect 5-for-5 on extra points. In the return game, Semaj Morgan and Kalel Mullings both had 20+ yard kick returns, and we saw a flash of explosiveness from Tyler Morris on punt return. Morris made his first appearance this week after sitting out the opener with a minor injury, and also made a great 3rd down catch in the first half.

Hard to find a whole lot to nit pick in Michigan’s second consecutive solid performance. The defense might be more dominant than 2022 if the pass rush continues to ascend for the defensive line. JJ McCarthy is playing nearly perfectly, albeit versus two lackluster defensive units. Once Michigan settles on their offensive line starters, and Blake Corum knocks the rest of the recovery rust off, the Wolverines seem primed to unleash their full potential in the Big Ten season. Onward!