Tag: Recap

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Michigan 31 Washington 10 – Game 2 Recap

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GAME 2 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 31-10, Michigan by 21 over Washington
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 9 (+12)
CD Projection: Michigan by 6 (+15)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 2 RECAP vs. Washington

For the second week in a row, Michigan outperformed my expectations, and SP+ projections, this time by dismantling the Huskies in front of an energetic Big House crowd. The Wolverines looked sharp as they executed the game plans on both sides of the ball. Even though this matchup lost some shine nationally after Washington’s Week 1 loss to FCS Montana, the team and the fan base still created another electric atmosphere Under the Lights in Ann Arbor. It was a vintage Jim Harbaugh era performance that featured run game flexing on offense, and a physical swarming defense.

Offensively, the Wolverines’ rushing attack pounded Washington mercilessly by calling run plays 78% of the game. Those play calls yielded 343 rushing yards, a 51% success rate, and an average EPA of 0.467. Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum split the work load relatively evenly again. The complementary nature of Haskins’ power (5.7 yards/carry) and Corum’s speed (3 TDs including a 67-yarder) earned a nickname in our house that I loved as soon as I heard it: we’ll be referring to the RB duo as Boom & Zoom.

Michigan’s defense also imposed their will in this game, led by captain Aiden Hutchinson. Hutchinson and his squad created consistent pressure on the QB. By the time Washington was able to find any holes in zone coverage, Michigan was up two scores. In fact, the Wolverines extended Washington’s offensive drought nearly to the end of the 3rd quarter when the Huskies were able to get a field goal. Their 4th quarter touchdown drive happened while Michigan led by 21, making it effectively garbage time. This Washington offense is not the best on the schedule by any stretch. But, through two weeks, I would say Mike MacDonald’s defensive install is ahead of schedule.

The special teams unit was a strength again, also. Jim Harbaugh’s fake punt call in the 2nd quarter not only paid off for a 1st down conversion, but Blake Corum scampered 67 yards for a touchdown on the very next snap. Jake Moody converted his career long field goal of 52 yards to open the scoring. Only one kickoff was returned, and former Wolverine Giles Jackson was unable to cross the 25 on that return. We did witness a couple shaky punt returns, but Caden Kolesar managed to return his second opportunity for 20 yards.

Again, the Wolverines took care of business at home. Some significant questions remain on both sides of the ball, but mostly because we aren’t sure how strong these first two opponents actually were. In terms of what we’ve seen, Jim Harbaugh has this team executing cleanly right now, and embracing a strong physical identity in all phases.

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Michigan 47 WMU 14 – Game 1 Recap

Today was a good day!

GAME 1 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 47-14, Michigan by 33 over WMU
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 19 (+14)
CD Projection: Michigan by 13 (+20)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 1 RECAP vs. WMU

Offensively, Michigan looked sharp and got multiple playmakers involved. A few early deep balls to Ronnie Bell showed that the Wolverines will threaten the field vertically. A swing pass completed to Blake Corum for a 14 yard touchdown served to stretch the defense horizontally. Josh Gattis’ group was able to build a big lead quick enough to get meaningful snaps for everybody we wanted to see, including a 69 yard bomb from freshman JJ McCarthy to newcomer Daylen Baldwin. The only rain cloud on this day for the offense appeared when their leader, Bell, came up limping after returning a punt in the 2nd quarter, and was carted off.

As great as Michigan’s offense looked in the opener, the biggest positive I am taking away is from the defense. Mike MacDonald implemented a solid game plan that held Western’s highly efficient pass offense to 191 yards on the day. Dax Hill clearly took a step forward this offseason. He made his presence felt throughout the first 3 quarters, especially fighting off blocks and making tackles near the line of scrimmage. The Wolverines were able to play a large rotation of defensive linemen, and the interior held up after some early challenges. Finally, and thank goodness for this, the corners on the outside were in good position to make plays on vertical routes. After Gemon Green initially gave up a sideline fade I felt a familiar doubt, but the DBs were able to adjust and clamp down early in the 2nd quarter.

The special teams not only held their own, but provided an early spark in this game. Blake Corum returned a kickoff 79 yards to set up Michigan’s second score, a Q1 field goal. Jake Moody was perfect on 2 field goal attempts and 5 PATs. The Wolverines’ field position advantage was worth a full point per drive, even after removing garbage time.

Overall, there are no major question marks that remain unaddressed after today’s performance. The biggest remaining issue is the health of OL Zak Zinter and WR Ronnie Bell, and their status for next week’s big matchup with #20 Washington. Phil and I joked in the 2nd half that some fans will still find some issues to be concerned with. Maybe they miss the drama between factions of the fan base. For me, I am 100% fine with this “boring” outcome. Onward!

2021-01-UM-47-WMU-14-Final-StatsDownload
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Michigan 17 Penn State 27 – Week 6 Recap

WEEK 6 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 17-27, Penn State by 10 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Penn State by 1.0 (-9.0)
CD Projection: Michigan by 1 (-11)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 6 RECAP vs. Penn State

Offensively, the Wolverines lost their first-half rhythm when Cade McNamara left the game with a shoulder injury.  The broadcast team mentioned that Joe MIlton was also less than 100%, and he was unable to mount a charge.  The salt in the wound for this week was Michigan netted 174 rushing yards.  In my data set, they averaged 6.5 yards per run play (garbage time & sacks removed).  However, they could not sustain drives and continue to move the chains.  While McNamara was hurt, Hassan Haskins was inexplicably standing on the sideline.  This week, Josh Gattis was unable to scheme his WRs open, and Michigan could only muster a 28% success rate on pass plays. 

Defensively, I saw just about what I expected.  While the defensive line was boosted by Kwity Paye’s return, the defensive interior could not stand up to Penn State’s mediocre offensive line.  The Nittany Lions netted 254 rushing yards, and averaged 5.2 yards per run play in my data set.  Michigan needed a big stop after tightening the score to 20-17 in the 4th quarter.  The Wolverines were merely an annoyance to Penn State as they marched 75 yards in 5:00 to stretch the lead to 10.  I think the defensive staff has adjusted to help mitigate the huge plays against man coverage outside, and that is commendable.  I thought holding PSU under 30 would be enough to win, but instead James Franklin has his first win of 2020.

Last week, special teams hurt Michigan with 3 missed FGs.  This week, it was 2 muffed punts, one of which resulted in a turnover and a field goal for Penn State.  Michigan certainly missed Giles Jackson, who was the latest to hit the injury report.  This year cannot end soon enough.

Every problem that plagues Michigan right now is also weighing down the Nittany Lions.  The game was in Ann Arbor on a beautiful November day.  All the potential excuses have withered and Michigan is left with just one option: acknowledging that they don’t know how to win football games right now. 

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Michigan 48 Rutgers 42 – Week 5 Recap

WEEK 5 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 48-42 3OT, Michigan by 6 over Rutgers
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 19.3 (-13.3)
CD Projection: Michigan by 6 (✔)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 5 RECAP @ Rutgers

Admittedly, it felt weird to be treating a week 5 trip to Rutgers as a must win.  But, it absolutely was a must win game for Michigan, and for Jim Harbaugh.  They won, and that matters a lot.  There were still a litany of errors to correct for this coaching staff, and for these players.  But in the end, Michigan finally managed to make some key plays in big spots.  This will prove to be a memorable lesson in how to win for these players, especially those with very little game experience.

I hope everyone is prepared for a very fast transfer from the Joe Milton hype train to the Cade McNamara hype train.  McNamara looked very sharp after taking over for Milton in the second quarter.  He was 27-36 (75%) for 260 yards and 4 TDs.  Perhaps more importantly, once the offense forced Rutgers to defend the whole field, the running game was able to find some creases.  There is still a lot of work to do to bolster the depth while three of the five starting lineman recover from injuries.  Hassan Haskins seems to have stepped forward to gather more carries than the other three running backs.  However, Chris Evans had perhaps the play of the game on a 4th & 5 conversion in the 4th quarter.  Josh Gattis finally seemed to get into a rhythm for the first time since October 24th in Minneapolis.

On first glance, this game was a lot like the rest of the 2020 performances for Don Brown’s defensive unit.  There were still huge chunk plays given up through the air to a Rutgers QB who was averaging 5.3 yards per pass attempt coming in.  Rutgers managed 6.8 yards per called pass play tonight against Michigan.  There were a few glimmers of hope, however.  Early on, we saw a flash of speed off the ball from Chris Hinton.  If he emerges as an interior threat, this defense immediately improves.  We also saw Dax Hill make a technique correction from early in the game to the end.  In the 1st quarter, Dax made a passive play on a deep ball and the WR high-pointed a 43 yard bomb to set up Rutgers’ first score.  On the final play of the game, in a similar coverage technique, Dax left no doubt by going up high to snatch his first interception of the season. 

Giles Jackson continues to show his propensity for being a playmaker.  Today, it was as a kick returner.  His 95-yard touchdown return to open the 2nd half was a huge part of why Michigan was able to execute a comeback victory.  When Rutgers kicked away from Jackson, Blake Corum was very capable of converting short kicks into good field position also.  Michigan was very fortunate that their explosive return game was able to pick up the place kicking.  Three missed field goals nearly cost Michigan this game in regulation, and in overtime.  One missed field goal was affected by a poor snap, but the other two were clearly pushed right by Quinn Nordin.  I expect Michigan’s special teams unit will sink even lower in next week’s SP+ rankings.

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Michigan 11 Wisconsin 49 – Week 4 Recap

WEEK 4 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 11-49, Wisconsin by 38 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Wisconsin by 9.8 (-28.2)
CD Projection: Wisconsin by 17 (-21)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 4 RECAP vs. Wisconsin

Michigan fans were dispirited heading into this game, and somehow feel worse limping out of it.  It’s time to figure out what the plan for 2021 is, I think.  I will keep the analysis brief, because I am not one to blow smoke.

Offensively, I will summarize like this: both of Michigan’s scoring drives happened while the scoreboard determined that it was technically garbage time.  28-0 in the 3rd quarter, Jim Harbaugh was forced to send Quinn Nordin in to kick a mercy field goal on 4th & 10.  By the time Cade McNamara hit three chunk plays through the air in the 4th quarter, it was 35-3 and those stats will also be removed from the data.

Defensively, at least the problems tonight were different than the last two weeks…?  The corners finally looked serviceable, but with both Kwity Paye and Aidan Hutchinson out, the Wolverines failed to set an edge from start to finish.  RBs and WRs rushed the ball outside with ease.  When the Badgers did need to throw, Graham Mertz found easy connections in the flat where LBs could not cover.

It’s extremely frustrating to look less prepared than the team that had their last two games canceled during a 10-day shutdown due to a COVID breakout.  I don’t know what the right answer is, but it’s time to start asking the hard questions.