Tag: Recap

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Michigan 11 Wisconsin 49 – Week 4 Recap

WEEK 4 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 11-49, Wisconsin by 38 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Wisconsin by 9.8 (-28.2)
CD Projection: Wisconsin by 17 (-21)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 4 RECAP vs. Wisconsin

Michigan fans were dispirited heading into this game, and somehow feel worse limping out of it.  It’s time to figure out what the plan for 2021 is, I think.  I will keep the analysis brief, because I am not one to blow smoke.

Offensively, I will summarize like this: both of Michigan’s scoring drives happened while the scoreboard determined that it was technically garbage time.  28-0 in the 3rd quarter, Jim Harbaugh was forced to send Quinn Nordin in to kick a mercy field goal on 4th & 10.  By the time Cade McNamara hit three chunk plays through the air in the 4th quarter, it was 35-3 and those stats will also be removed from the data.

Defensively, at least the problems tonight were different than the last two weeks…?  The corners finally looked serviceable, but with both Kwity Paye and Aidan Hutchinson out, the Wolverines failed to set an edge from start to finish.  RBs and WRs rushed the ball outside with ease.  When the Badgers did need to throw, Graham Mertz found easy connections in the flat where LBs could not cover.

It’s extremely frustrating to look less prepared than the team that had their last two games canceled during a 10-day shutdown due to a COVID breakout.  I don’t know what the right answer is, but it’s time to start asking the hard questions.

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Michigan 21 Indiana 38 – Week 3 Recap

WEEK3 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 21-38, Indiana by 17 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 2.1 (-19.1)
CD Projection: Michigan by 1 (-18)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 3 RECAP @ Indiana

For the second week in a row, Michigan was outplayed and lost.  In some sense you have to give the Hoosiers the respect they deserve.  That doesn’t help soothe the deep disappointment for this team.  Jim Harbaugh must go back to the drawing board and get all his guys onto the same page.  If he cannot keep the team together through this challenging season, it will be hard for me to believe he can restore the program.

The Michigan offensive line was behind the eight ball right away without both starting tackles.  The running game was only able to produce an 8% success rate, and 1.6 yards per play.  On the first watch, I didn’t see very much read-option, if at all.  I don’t know why there is such hesitation to use Joe Milton in the run game, but it’s clearly been taken out of the game plan.  I will give Gattis and Joe Milton a lot of credit for bouncing back in the second half.  The offense was dangerous enough in the 2nd half to threaten the whole field, but still couldn’t click in the most critical spots.

The Hoosiers copied the Michigan State offensive game plan of chuck and hope versus the Michigan corners.  It was almost as successful this week.  There was a clear commitment to back off into more zone coverages to take some heat off Vincent Gray and Gemon Green.  Indiana was able to find large holes and Michael Penix had a career day.  There was pressure on Penix, and Michigan caused some errant throws.  This was despite Aiden Hutchinson leaving with an apparent foot or ankle injury in the first quarter.   The defense managed to slow Indiana down in the 2nd half, but could not get off the field on key plays.  Indiana ran 87 snaps on offense, compared to just 52 for Michigan.

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2020 Game 2 — Michigan 24 Michigan State 27 – Week 2 Recap

Now what?

WEEK 2 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 24-27, Michigan State by 3 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 19.2 (-22.2)
CD Projection: Michigan by 45 (-48)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 2 RECAP vs. Michigan State

There wasn’t a huge turnover margin problem.  There was no hurricane or snow storm.  Michigan State outplayed Michigan and won the game in Ann Arbor.  That is the sad, brutal truth.  The most important question now has to be, “What is next?”

Joe Milton looked like a new starter.  He wasn’t bad, but there were problems with reading the defense in the pass game and the run game.  There were inaccurate throws, deep and intermediate.  The biggest difference this week was almost no explosion passing or running.  To really understand why these things are true, I need another review of the play on the field, and that’s going to have to wait a while.

Defensively there are two main issues: one was discussed ad nauseum by the FOX broadcast, and one was not.  We heard Gus Johnson & Joel Klatt keep calling out MSU’s advantage outside with their WRs versus Michigan’s CBs.  I am absolutely shocked the Spartans were able to make the plays they made, but I’ll tip my cap on two or three of those catches.  The other main issue was almost a total absence of pressure on Rocky Lombardi.  The MSU offensive line that gave up 12 (!) TFLs to Rutgers (!) in week one, kept their QB clean today versus the Wolverines.  That fact alone carries most of the water when I have to explain how I missed this prediction by 48 points.  I did not think we would see a clean jersey on Rocky Lombardi.   

Back to the drawing board for Jim Harbaugh and his staff.  The offensive game plan got major kudos last week, and this week seemed handcuffed.  The defensive personnel concerns that fans had from training camp at CB seemed unfounded versus Rashod Bateman last week.  This week they got torched by Ricky White.  I knew 2020 was going to be a crazy season, but still got totally rope-a-doped in this one.  Shame on me.

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Michigan 49 Minnesota 24 – Week 1 Recap

WEEK 1 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 49-24, Michigan by 25 over Minnesota
SP+ Projection: Minnesota by 3 (+28)
CD Projection: Michigan by 4 (+21)

FIVE FACTORS

Five Factors Summary Week 1 – Michigan 49 Minnesota 24

WEEK 1 RECAP @ Minnesota

Overall, this was Michigan’s best road performance since 2018 in East Lansing.

On offense Michigan flexed their muscle on the offensive line. The Wolverines are deep at running back. It looks like the back will be selected based on how and where Josh Gattis wants to attack. Tight end Erick All flashed some promise in the absence of Nick Eubanks, but dropped a touchdown down the middle.

The Michigan defense helped their own cause by scoring a 1st quarter touchdown as Donovan Jeter plucked Tanner Morgan’s fumble from mid-air and ran it in from 15 yards out. The fumble was forced by viper Michael Barrett on a edge blitz. Barrett was everywhere for the Wolverines. It took a while to get going, but Kwity Paye, Aiden Hutchinson, and Carlo Kemp finally got to the quarterback in the 2nd half.

There were some scary moments on special teams, including an opening blocked punt that set up Minnesota’s first score. Jake Moody also missed all three field goal attempts. However, Michael Barrett did explode for a huge 65-yard kickoff return setting up a Joe Milton touchdown pass to Ben Mason.

I think we all expected some rocky moments, and some hiccups. They were present, but I am personally very impressed with how Michigan showed poise and executed on the road, at night, on national TV.

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Michigan 27 Ohio State 56 – Week 14 Recap

WEEK 14 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 56-27, Ohio State by 29 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Ohio State by 11.0 (-18.0)
CD Projection: Michigan by 3 (-32)

FIVE FACTORS

Week 14 Five Factors box score

WEEK 14 RECAP vs. Ohio State

This became another version of The Game that looked a lot like Michigan-Ohio State games of this generation.  The Wolverines came out strong and scored on their first drive. They stood toe-to-toe through the first quarter at 14-13.  But, as the 2nd quarter and 3rd quarter wore on, Ohio State continued to execute and make big plays. Michigan ran out of steam and looked hapless as the Buckeyes pulled away.  

The offensive game plan provided a solid foundation for Michigan on the day.  However, the Buckeyes’ #1 defense gave the Wolverines a dose of their own medicine by choking them out after halftime.  The Wolverines could only muster 111 total yards against the smothering OSU defense in the 3rd and 4th quarters combined.  Plays were available to be made, especially in the 3rd quarter, but too many of Shea Patterson’s passes hit the wide receivers and then hit the turf.  As the clock turned to the 4th quarter, Michigan had completed just one pass in the 3rd frame. While Michigan’s 39% success rate is only slightly below average, looking at it by quarter is more telling: 53% (1st) 47% (2nd) 29% (3rd) 30% (4th).

While Michigan sputtered in the second half, Ohio State kept rolling.  The Buckeyes scored 14 points in each quarter by staying true to their identity.  JK Dobbins was explosive running the ball, and Justin Fields repeatedly hit deep shots through the air.  OSU matched Michigan’s hot start with a 57% success rate and 8.4 yards per play in the 1st quarter. Unlike the Wolverines offense, Ryan Day and his staff had the next round of answers for their opponents’ in game adjustments.  The Buckeyes’ 7.5 yards per play will likely send Jim Harbaugh’s staff back to the drawing board. That is the most Michigan allowed per play all season, including the early season blow out in Madison (6.9 YPP).

This puts the final stamp onto a frustrating season for Jim Harbaugh and the Michigan Wolverines football program.  With the experience and talent returning from 2018, this team had their eyes set on much loftier goals. The goals are the correct ones.  To achieve those championship goals, this program needs to execute in big games. There is nothing to do at this point but get back to work.