Tag: Michigan Football

Posted on

Michigan 21 Indiana 38 – Week 3 Recap

WEEK3 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 21-38, Indiana by 17 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 2.1 (-19.1)
CD Projection: Michigan by 1 (-18)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 3 RECAP @ Indiana

For the second week in a row, Michigan was outplayed and lost.  In some sense you have to give the Hoosiers the respect they deserve.  That doesn’t help soothe the deep disappointment for this team.  Jim Harbaugh must go back to the drawing board and get all his guys onto the same page.  If he cannot keep the team together through this challenging season, it will be hard for me to believe he can restore the program.

The Michigan offensive line was behind the eight ball right away without both starting tackles.  The running game was only able to produce an 8% success rate, and 1.6 yards per play.  On the first watch, I didn’t see very much read-option, if at all.  I don’t know why there is such hesitation to use Joe Milton in the run game, but it’s clearly been taken out of the game plan.  I will give Gattis and Joe Milton a lot of credit for bouncing back in the second half.  The offense was dangerous enough in the 2nd half to threaten the whole field, but still couldn’t click in the most critical spots.

The Hoosiers copied the Michigan State offensive game plan of chuck and hope versus the Michigan corners.  It was almost as successful this week.  There was a clear commitment to back off into more zone coverages to take some heat off Vincent Gray and Gemon Green.  Indiana was able to find large holes and Michael Penix had a career day.  There was pressure on Penix, and Michigan caused some errant throws.  This was despite Aiden Hutchinson leaving with an apparent foot or ankle injury in the first quarter.   The defense managed to slow Indiana down in the 2nd half, but could not get off the field on key plays.  Indiana ran 87 snaps on offense, compared to just 52 for Michigan.

Posted on

By the Numbers: Week 3 @ Indiana

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan State upset the Wolverines 27-24, as Michigan was outplayed at home in stunning fashion by their rivals. 

NEXT UP: @ Indiana: 25th, 11.5

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 2.1, Michigan Win Probability 55%
The Hoosiers are 2-0, and have performed pretty much as expected according to SP+.  The win over Penn State was a statistical anomaly.  Indiana would have lost if Penn State had taken a knee instead of handing off.  They were also kick-started by two short fields in the first half against Rutgers.

Michigan Offense (29th) vs. Indiana Defense (26th) 
The Michigan rushing attack will be my main offensive key on Saturday.  Indiana ranks 10th in Big Ten rushing yards allowed per game.  Michigan was able to produce a 48% success rate on called run plays versus Michigan State (ranked 7th in B1G rush yds/game).  Despite being somewhat successful, the offensive line had trouble adapting to how MSU  attacked their blocking scheme.  This produced far more negative yardage plays than Josh Gattis would like.  The Wolverines may also be dealing with some injuries up front, including their best lineman Jaylen Mayfield. 

Michigan Defense (13th) vs. Indiana Offense (33rd)
Regardless of which two Michigan cornerbacks get the start in Bloomington, I expect Don Brown to give them additional help from the safeties.  The success of MSU’s chuck-it-deep approach last week will definitely be imitated by the rest of the Big Ten teams versus Michigan.  The key questions I’ll be looking to answer: How well can Dax Hill and Brad Hawkins perform in coverage? Can the corners function in coverage without overtly grabbing the Indiana wide receivers?  Can the defensive line and blitzing linebackers get to QB Michael Penix before he can find the holes in more frequent zone coverage by the Wolverines?  

PREDICTION: Indiana has been pretty consistent through two weeks, and they are now 2-0 and ranked 13th nationally.  Michigan has already visited both ends of the performance and expectations spectrum.  No metric system can answer whether or not the 2020 Michigan team can bounce back from a shocking loss.  I expect a better-prepared and more enthusiastic showing this week, but the stat sheet might not reflect that.  This game could remind Michigan fans of last year’s Iowa game, a 10-3 home victory.  My advice is to focus on what really matters…win the game!
Michigan 28 Indiana 27 (PRESEASON Michigan 35 Indiana 20)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/2/2020), 1-1

SP+ Overall: 16th (↓7), 15.7
SP+ Offense: 29th (↓6), 33.6
SP+ Defense: 13th (↓3), 17.8
SP+ Special Teams: 77th (↓6), -0.1

AP Poll: 23rd (↓10), 151
Coaches’ Poll: 25th (↓11), 141
CFP Rank: N/A

Posted on

2020 Game 2 — Michigan 24 Michigan State 27 – Week 2 Recap

Now what?

WEEK 2 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 24-27, Michigan State by 3 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 19.2 (-22.2)
CD Projection: Michigan by 45 (-48)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 2 RECAP vs. Michigan State

There wasn’t a huge turnover margin problem.  There was no hurricane or snow storm.  Michigan State outplayed Michigan and won the game in Ann Arbor.  That is the sad, brutal truth.  The most important question now has to be, “What is next?”

Joe Milton looked like a new starter.  He wasn’t bad, but there were problems with reading the defense in the pass game and the run game.  There were inaccurate throws, deep and intermediate.  The biggest difference this week was almost no explosion passing or running.  To really understand why these things are true, I need another review of the play on the field, and that’s going to have to wait a while.

Defensively there are two main issues: one was discussed ad nauseum by the FOX broadcast, and one was not.  We heard Gus Johnson & Joel Klatt keep calling out MSU’s advantage outside with their WRs versus Michigan’s CBs.  I am absolutely shocked the Spartans were able to make the plays they made, but I’ll tip my cap on two or three of those catches.  The other main issue was almost a total absence of pressure on Rocky Lombardi.  The MSU offensive line that gave up 12 (!) TFLs to Rutgers (!) in week one, kept their QB clean today versus the Wolverines.  That fact alone carries most of the water when I have to explain how I missed this prediction by 48 points.  I did not think we would see a clean jersey on Rocky Lombardi.   

Back to the drawing board for Jim Harbaugh and his staff.  The offensive game plan got major kudos last week, and this week seemed handcuffed.  The defensive personnel concerns that fans had from training camp at CB seemed unfounded versus Rashod Bateman last week.  This week they got torched by Ricky White.  I knew 2020 was going to be a crazy season, but still got totally rope-a-doped in this one.  Shame on me.

Posted on

By the Numbers: Week 2 vs. Michigan State

Lack of accuracy from Storm Troopers leads to notoriously weak offensive efficiency. Pew! Pew!

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan opened the 2020 season on the road, at night, against a ranked opponent.  The 49-24 victory over Minnesota was impressive, and many national pundits are taking notice.

NEXT UP: vs. Michigan State: 60th, 2.0

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 19.2, Michigan Win Probability 87%
After the Spartans lost their home opener to Rutgers in week 1, the expectations for this game have drastically shifted.  I still think SP+ is under-rating Michigan a bit, and the system is definitely over-rating the Spartans.

Michigan Offense (23rd) vs. Michigan State Defense (17th)
Josh Gattis kicked off his second year as Michigan’s offensive coordinator with a 59% Success Rate (garbage time removed).  That is the most efficient offensive performance for Michigan since November 5th, 2016 versus Maryland.  While Minnesota’s defense was not strong, the last five outings have produced these efficiency results: 52% at Maryland, 52% at Indiana, 45% vs. Ohio State, 49% vs. Alabama, and 59% on Saturday in Minneapolis.  Because SP+ still weighs returning production and preseason ranks after one game, I think the Wolverines’ offense is drastically under-rated.

Michigan Defense (10th) vs. Michigan State Offense (113th)
The Spartans have had some anemic offensive performances the past few seasons as Mark Dantonio refused to adapt and modernize the offense.  Mel Tucker’s offensive squad produced seven (!) turnovers at home vs. Rutgers, and struggled to run the ball.  I expect Michigan will be able to bottle up the MSU rushing attack as well.  Defensive wins on standard downs will set up QB Rocky Lombardi vs. Don Brown’s pass rush in clear passing downs.  That promises to be quite an adventure.

PREDICTION: A short time ago, in the preseason, I was giving the Spartans the benefit of the doubt.  I thought they would be coming off a relatively easy victory.  I also thought that easy victory would allow them to hide a few “kitchen sink” plays that they were saving for the rivalry game.  One short week later, it’s clear to me there is a wide gap between how Jim Harbaugh and his staff were able to prepare during COVID, and how Mel Tucker was able to prepare.  This should become a horror show for Sparty fans.  Happy Halloween!
Michigan 48 Michigan State 3 (PRESEASON Michigan 31 Michigan State 14)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (10/28/2020), 1-0

SP+ Overall: 9th (↑8), 18.8
SP+ Offense: 23rd (↑15), 35.5
SP+ Defense: 10th (↑4), 16.7
SP+ Special Teams 71st (N/A) -0.1

AP Poll: 13th (↑5), 839
Coaches’ Poll: 14th (↑3), 789
CFP Rank: N/A

Posted on

Michigan 49 Minnesota 24 – Week 1 Recap

WEEK 1 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 49-24, Michigan by 25 over Minnesota
SP+ Projection: Minnesota by 3 (+28)
CD Projection: Michigan by 4 (+21)

FIVE FACTORS

Five Factors Summary Week 1 – Michigan 49 Minnesota 24

WEEK 1 RECAP @ Minnesota

Overall, this was Michigan’s best road performance since 2018 in East Lansing.

On offense Michigan flexed their muscle on the offensive line. The Wolverines are deep at running back. It looks like the back will be selected based on how and where Josh Gattis wants to attack. Tight end Erick All flashed some promise in the absence of Nick Eubanks, but dropped a touchdown down the middle.

The Michigan defense helped their own cause by scoring a 1st quarter touchdown as Donovan Jeter plucked Tanner Morgan’s fumble from mid-air and ran it in from 15 yards out. The fumble was forced by viper Michael Barrett on a edge blitz. Barrett was everywhere for the Wolverines. It took a while to get going, but Kwity Paye, Aiden Hutchinson, and Carlo Kemp finally got to the quarterback in the 2nd half.

There were some scary moments on special teams, including an opening blocked punt that set up Minnesota’s first score. Jake Moody also missed all three field goal attempts. However, Michael Barrett did explode for a huge 65-yard kickoff return setting up a Joe Milton touchdown pass to Ben Mason.

I think we all expected some rocky moments, and some hiccups. They were present, but I am personally very impressed with how Michigan showed poise and executed on the road, at night, on national TV.