Michigan Football – Page 20 – UMGOBLUE.COM Michigan Wolverine Football & Basketball

November 23, 2019November 24, 2019

Michigan 39 Indiana 14 – Week 13 Recap

WEEK 13 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 39-14, Michigan by 25 over Indiana
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 2.4 (+22.6)
CD Projection: Michigan by 14 (+11)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 13 RECAP @ Indiana

Jim Harbaugh and his Wolverines maintained focus through the week. Many folks had this game circled on the schedule because it was: 1) on the road 2) against an Indiana team who gives Michigan trouble annually and 3) squeezed in between two rivalry games versus Michigan State and Ohio State. Kudos to the coaching staff for keeping the players on task. The players really executed at a high level in varying weather conditions on the road against the Hoosiers.

Finally, Nico Collins had his day. The junior wide receiver hauled in 6 passes for 165 yards and 3 touchdowns. When the ball went in Collins’ direction and he didn’t catch it, there was likely a pass interference call on the defender. He is a dominant weapon for Josh Gattis, and it seems like everyone has finally discovered that fact. Shea Patterson followed up his first 300+ yard passing game with a second one a week later. Patterson had 366 yards and 5 touchdowns to Collins, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Ronnie Bell. Michigan’s 7.8 yards per play is their most explosive mark of 2019, and the most since Week 2 of 2018 vs. WMU.

The Indiana Hoosiers have continually given Michigan problems, and their 2018 game plan was the kindling for Ohio State’s bonfire in The Game last season. The 2019 game in Bloomington started in the same mold with Indiana scoring touchdowns on 2 of their first 3 drives. Then, the defensive staff made their adjustments and forced 5 consecutive punts and forced a fumble over the next 6 drives. During garbage time, the Hoosiers were able to eclipse 300 total yards, and also managed 4.8 yards per play on the day. There may be a few issues to work out in the defensive film room this week, but it feels like there are plenty of tricks left in Don Brown’s bag for the Buckeyes next week.

Ohio State clinched the Big Ten East with their 28-17 victory over Penn State in Columbus earlier today. On Tuesday night, the Bucks may be consensus #1 in the country in the AP poll, the Coaches’ poll, and the College Football Playoff rankings. Ryan Day will lead OSU to Indianapolis to compete for a Big Ten title regardless of what happens in Ann Arbor. Jim Harbaugh has led an impressive bounce back after an awful start to the Big Ten season. In terms of Big Ten titles, this team’s slow building improvement is too little too late. However, in terms of 2019 season success and Harbaugh era legacy, the Wolverines have everything to play for. The 2019 version of The Game will come down to which team’s players will rise to the occasion and show they want it more. Big time players make the critical plays in the biggest games. #BeatOhio

November 21, 2019November 22, 2019

By the Numbers: Week 13 @ Indiana

LAST WEEK RECAP

A totally satisfying 44-10 pounding of the MSU Spartans highlighted the different trajectories of the two programs.

NEXT UP: @Indiana: 20th, 17.5

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 2.4, Michigan Win Probability 55%
In an interesting coincidence, Bill Connelly’s SP+ model produced the same prediction (28-25 Michigan) that I came up with in my Season Preview in August. Another comparison for the Indiana game is Week 9 vs. Notre Dame. The Irish also ranked 20th overall in SP+, with the 13th Offense, and the 35th Defense.

SP+ Picks are made weekly via Twitter by ESPN’s Bill Connelly

Michigan Offense (34th) vs. Indiana Defense (34th)
Michigan comes off perhaps their most impressive offensive outing. The Wolverines have improved 38 spots, up from 72nd after the loss to Wisconsin. In three road games after Wisconsin, Michigan averages a 45% success rate and 5.9 yards per play. In 2018, the Wolverines managed a 47% success rate and 6.7 yards per play. This contest with Indiana presents the final regular season road challenge for Josh Gattis and the offense. Based on the matching SP+ rankings for Michigan’s offense and Indiana’s defense, Saturday’s matchup will likely come down to who can execute more cleanly. If the Wolverines can avoid major mistakes, especially turnovers, I expect them to move the ball and score consistently.

Michigan Defense (5th) vs. Indiana Offense (13th)
In last year’s 31-20 victory, the Michigan defense generated significant angst among the fan base. Even worse, the Hoosiers’ success versus man coverage can be pointed to as a blueprint for the Buckeyes 62-point domination the following week. We know these events triggered Don Brown’s 2019 evolution, making the test against Indiana particularly interesting. After dealing with the cost of significant change early in the season, the Wolverines’ defense is back into the top 5 nationally, including 5th in SP+. The 2019 game shifts to Bloomington and opposing offensive units have had some success in road games since Wisconsin. The Wolverines allowed a 35% success rate and 4.3 yards per play at Illinois, at Penn State, and at Maryland. Also, because of the game waiting in Week 14, the prep for this game may be a delicate balance between executing vs. the Hoosiers without tipping your hand to the Buckeyes again.

PREDICTION: I made a big deal out of the 2018 trend in home versus road performance. Michigan was +7.9 to the SP+ projections at home, and -7.1 on the road. That 15 point swing was particularly startling for me. So far In 2019 the Wolverines are +7.2 at home, and a much more reasonable +0.8 on the road. I think Michigan will continue to show their growth on the road and will improve that +0.8 number.
Michigan 31 Indiana 17 (PRESEASON Michigan 28 Indiana 25)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/19/2019), 8-2

SP+ Overall: 10th (↑5), 22.4
- SP+ Offense:34th (↑9), 33.8
- SP+ Defense: 5th (↓1), 12.0
- SP+ Special Teams 49th (↑21) 0.5
CFP Rank: 13th (↑2)
AP Poll: 12th (↑2), 829
Coaches’ Poll: 12th (↑2), 851

November 16, 2019November 18, 2019

Michigan 44 MSU 10 – Week 12 Recap

WEEK 12 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 44-10, Michigan by 34 over Michigan State
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 12.7 (+21.3)
CD Projection: Michigan by 17 (+17)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 12 RECAP vs. MSU

That game had a little bit of everything, but it ended with a Maize & Blue avalanche. After Michigan State scored early to take a 7-0 lead in the first quarter, Michigan roared back 44-3. This year’s Spartan team is not up the Mark Dantonio standard of this decade. However, I am sure that doesn’t make Jim Harbaugh’s third victory over MSU any less sweet.

Michigan’s offense was led by a career day for Shea Patterson. The senior quarterback was 24 of 33 for 384 yards and 4 touchdown passes. Today also marked the first game in 2019 that Michigan passed more than it ran in a victory. Josh Gattis called 55% pass plays in a 34-point blowout. This could signal another major step forward for #SpeedInSpace in the final two games. Offensively, 7.4 yards per play is their best mark of the season, and the 51% success rate is third best.

On defense, the narrative held pretty much as predicted. Michigan State had a solid game plan and back of tricks coming out of the gate. However, once they had shown Don Brown all that was hidden, MSU could not get much moving. The Spartans averaged 5.2 yards per play in the first quarter as they took their 7-0 lead. In the third quarter they accumulated almost as much yardage as the first (74 total yards), but needed 19 plays to do it. In the fourth quarter, Michigan State could only muster 28 yards on 13 plays (2.2 yards per play). Perhaps the most encouraging signal sent by the defense came from the bone-jarring hit Khaleke Hudson put on an MSU wide receiver on a crossing route. That signal was sent directly to Indiana and Ohio State, who decimated the Wolverines’ coverage with similar routes last year.

Whatever did not go well in the first bye week (before the Wisconsin game) definitely got corrected for the second bye week. Jim Harbaugh and his staff had Michigan executing as well as we’ve seen in 2019. This crescendo in November is a welcome sight. In his first four seasons, finishing each season on a low note has been a legitimate criticism of Harbaugh. Now the challenge is to give the proper respect and preparation for a very good Indiana team. Preparing for a road trap game will fall directly on Harbaugh and his staff. For now, enjoy the State Championship. It’s GREAT…to BE…a Michigan WOLVERINE!

November 14, 2019November 15, 2019

By the Numbers: Week 12 vs. MSU

LAST WEEK RECAP

During the Week 11 Bye, we looked at 2018 & 2019 through 9 games, and we kept an eye on what to expect in the final 3 games.

NEXT UP: vs. Michigan State: 35th, 9.8

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 12.7, Michigan Win Probability 77%
Bill Connelly’s metric system is now dialed in with eleven weeks worth of data. With that said, the SP+ spread has moved in Michigan’s direction by only 1.2 points, with a small 2-point bump in Win Probability.

Michigan Offense (43rd) vs. Michigan State Defense (11th)
Michigan’s offense has not been quite as good as expected, but the Spartan defense hasn’t either. When I have watched Michigan State games in 2019, it feels an awful lot like watching the Wolverines in 2017. This defense is good, but they just cannot maintain a high level of play for a full 60 minutes. A lot of that is because the offense does not give them breaks in time of possession or field position. But, the Michigan State defense is also prone to making mistakes that turn into explosive plays. Offensively, Michigan has shown that they can be effective against top defenses. The Wolverines have played three top 10 SP+ defenses (Wisconsin, Iowa, & Penn State), plus Notre Dame is 23rd. The key will be whether Josh Gattis’ group comes out of the bye week sharp enough to exploit the inevitable MSU mistakes for big plays.

Michigan Defense (4th) vs. Michigan State Offense (84th)
The match up between Michigan’s defense and MSU’s offense will determine whether this game remains tight, or gets out of hand. The Spartans will definitely want to turn this game into a rock fight by grinding out first downs and playing the field position game. As Don Brown has transitioned to multiple fronts, and mixed in more zone coverage, Michigan has allowed some yardage but has tightened up on scoring opportunities. In this game, MSU would gladly march between the 20 yard lines and milk the clock. The Wolverines must turn the rivalry game energy and emotion into a laser focus on run fits during standard downs. Once they’ve forced Michigan State into passing downs, Michigan will be looking to create havoc.

PREDICTION: As bad as the Spartan offense has been, SP+ thinks their special teams are worse. They are currently ranked 108th nationally. This doesn’t bode well for the field position rock fight strategy that I expect from Mark Dantonio. I was happy to hear Jim Harbaugh using “High Alert” as the program mantra this week. This season was reduced to a one-game season in October. Potentially winning this game is the last shred of opportunity remaining the Spartans. Dantonio will have them playing at their highest level, but that won’t be good enough. #LeaveNoDoubt
Michigan 24 Michigan State 7 (PRESEASON Michigan 17 MSU 13)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/11/2019), 7-2

SP+ Overall: 15th (↓4), 19.9
- SP+ Offense:43rd (↑3), 32.3
- SP+ Defense: 4th (↓1), 12.3
- SP+ Special Teams 70th (↓1) -0.1
CFP Rank: 15th (↓1)
AP Poll: 14th (same), 744
Coaches’ Poll: 14th (same), 731

November 8, 2019November 8, 2019

By the Numbers: Week 11 Bye – Q3 Review

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan gave up zero points on defense, and beat Maryland by 31 points. Somehow these facts did not produce the same celebratory tone within the fan base.

NEXT UP: Bye Week, then vs. Michigan State: 29th, 11.2

Match up breakdown and prediction will return in Week 12 vs. Michigan State

THROUGH 9 GAMES: COMPARING 2018 & 2019

Michigan’s second bye week arrives as the Wolverines transition from the third quarter of the season to the fourth. The early season existential crisis for the fan base seems to have dwindled a bit. Most of that anxiety is probably just on the shelf until the last two rivalry games. Many Michigan fans continue to brace for the impact of the #1 Ohio State Buckeyes’ visit to the Big House. During the off week, we can compare how the 2018 metrics through nine games compared to the fourth quarter of the season. In the far right column, I’ll share my expectations for the final three games of 2019.

SCHEDULE
In terms of average SP+ ranking, the 2019 season has a much tougher conclusion for Michigan. In 2018 the final three games against Rutgers, Indiana, and Ohio State produced an average ranking of 61st. In 2019, Michigan State, Indiana, and Ohio State average out to 17th!

OFFENSE
Last season, the offense stayed very consistent through the final three games. The two significant changes were a slight improvement in Points per Opportunity and an increase in turnovers. For 2019, I expect to see more of the same in terms of Explosiveness and Finishing Drives. While the decrease in Yards per Play in 2019 was not what we expected under Josh Gattis, the successful plays have still produced the same IsoPPP. I expect the Wolverines to make their most impactful offensive improvement in Efficiency. In the first part of the 2019 season, success rate has been significantly hampered by lack of rhythm due to turnovers. As Michigan has taken better care of the ball, the success rate has trended upward. I expect both of those upward trends to continue through the end of this season.

DEFENSE
Curiosity about the 2018 Defensive splits drove this particular comparison article. As expected, the numbers were significantly worse. The surprise came in seeing the downward trend really started in the tenth game, a 42-7 win at Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights finished with 4.8 Yards per Play, and the same IsoPPP (1.24) against Michigan as the Buckeyes did. These 2018 problems triggered the 2019 scheme and personnel changes by Don Brown. The metrics show Michigan’s defense has not been quite as strong as they were the first nine games last year. However, this year I expect them to maintain the current levels. Utilizing multiple fronts and coverages, Brown has been able to stay true to his aggressive philosophy. The focus on QB pressure allows this defense to make key plays on critical downs. I believe being less predictable with blitzes and coverages will result in maintaining the current 2019 results, as opposed to the November melt down that we saw last season.

SPECIAL TEAMS
Michigan’s special teams just stopped a mid-season slide that saw them down to 80th in the SP+ special teams rankings. The poor field goal kicking plays a large part in that slide, but we can also check the impact on field position. The Wolverines average start at their own 33 yard line is exactly the same as 2018. However, the 2019 number comes as a result of the increase in turnovers forced by the defense balancing out some losses in the kicking and return game. Against Maryland Will Hart returned to booming 50+ yard punts (50.8 on average). In his previous five games, Hart was only kicking the ball 44.7 yards on average. He and the coverage team pushed his net punt average back up to 39.6, still not as good as 2018. Pinning teams deep into their own territory will be a critical factor in the final three November games. I expect to see the net punting improvement continue with Hart back in form. Continuing the explosiveness in Michigan’s own return game would also be a welcome surprise.

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/5/2019), 7-2

SP+ Overall: 11th (same), 20.8
- SP+ Offense:46th (↓5), 32.8
- SP+ Defense: 3rd (↓1), 11.9
- SP+ Sp. Teams 69th (↑11) 0.0
CFP Rank: 14th
AP Poll: 14th (same), 780
Coaches’ Poll: 14th (↑1), 746