Tag: Michigan Football

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By the Numbers: 2020 Michigan Football Season Preview

Young WRs like Mike Sainristil must step up for the Michigan offense during an uncertain 2020 season.

Every football offseason feels like it takes forever to end. In 2020, this particular football offseason dwarfs all the rest. After the cancellation of spring ball, and the postponement then revival of the 2020 fall season, I cannot wait to return to discussions about players, stats, and game results again. This week I will kickoff the return of UMGoBlue.com By the Numbers content with a game-by-game preview of the 2020 Michigan Football season. In the By the Numbers articles and podcasts I will compile, review, and summarize data and metrics to look deeper into the football team’s performance, and try to provide a clearer picture of how the upcoming games may turn out.

The foundation for most of my analysis comes from the ESPN SP+ college football analytics model, created by Bill Connelly. While his system was meant to be predictive for beating the odds against Vegas, studying the Five Factors is useful for understanding what a team does, or needs to do, to win football games. Here are his B1G West & B1G East preseason preview articles.

What is SP+
SP+ is the tempo and opponent adjusted college football analytical model developed by Bill Connelly for Football Outsiders (he is now at ESPN). SP+ is based around the core concepts of the Five Factors of winning football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers.  The resulting metric is expressed in adjusted points per game, as compared to the average CFB team.
Full Explanation 

Previous Results (2018-19)

Over the past two seasons, Connelly’s SP+ preseason predictions correctly selected the winner in 22 of 24 regular season Michigan games. The SP+ weekly projections were correct in 24 of 26 Michigan games, including a perfect 13-for-13 in 2019.

In my season preview posts in 2018 & 2019, I correctly picked the winner in 19 of 24 regular season Michigan games. In the weekly previews, I have been correct in 21 of 25 games.

Michigan 2020 SP+ Preseason Ranking

Overall – 17th, 14.0
Offense – 38th, 31.9
Defense – 14th, 17.8

2020 Regular Season Schedule

@ Minnesota: 16th Overall, 10th Offense, 44th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: Minnesota by 0.3 – This matchup reminds me of how SP+ saw the week 1 toss up on the road versus Notre Dame in 2018.

PREDICTION: This will be the third consecutive season that Michigan starts with a night game in week 1. Because everything in 2020 is crazy, this one will be in front of almost no fans in the stands (families of the players only). ESPN College Gameday will also be in Minneapolis. I think the offense will be able to move the ball, but the key for Josh Gattis will be cashing in Michigan’s opportunities for touchdowns. Defensively, the Wolverines will be in trouble if they are unable to convert pressure into sacks against QB Tanner Morgan and WR Rashod Bateman.
Michigan 34 Minnesota 30, 1-0

vs. Michigan State: 51st Overall, 109th Offense, 13th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: Michigan by 10.0 – Before the games are played, the SP+ system relies on returning production and past recruiting. The metrics haven’t seen what Mel Tucker’s Spartans will bring in 2020, and neither have I.

PREDICTION: This game is in the Big House for the second consecutive year. The main difference between the Michigan football program and Michigan State football program since the Wolverines’ 44-10 mauling last November is the lack of time on task this past offseason will be an even larger challenge for Mel Tucker’s staff as they transition. I am sure they will play with a lot of passion, and rivalry games can be weird, but this will be lopsided by the end.
Michigan 31 Michigan State 14, 2-0

@ Indiana: 32nd Overall, 35th Offense, 30th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: Michigan by 4.1 – Tom Allen has instilled a tough attitude in Bloomington, and SP+ recognizes balance between the offense and defense that has not been common for the Hoosiers.

PREDICTION: I’ve heard this game identified as a potential trap game for Michigan coming off a rivalry game, and perhaps looking ahead to Wisconsin. While that is possible, I think the Hoosiers will have Michigan’s full attention. The Wolverines looked sharp last November on the road (the week before OSU). I expect Michigan will have some early season offensive hiccups corrected by week 3. This could become a shootout if QB Michael Penix is extending plays with his scrambling ability .
Michigan 35 Indiana 20, 3-0

vs. Wisconsin: 6th Overall, 19th Offense, 3rd Defense

PRESEASON SP+: Wisconsin by 7.7 – The Badgers’ brand of football includes efficient offense and stout defense each year. The SP+ system will consistently reward that efficiency.

PREDICTION: Wisconsin has to replace a star running back and their best wide receiver who both entered the NFL draft. The starting quarterback may still be sidelined for this game after suffering a foot injury that required surgery during fall camp. But the Badgers reload every year in the trenches on both sides of the ball, where it matters most. This will be the first top-tier defense that Joe Milton will see, and I expect a difficult outing for the offense. The Wolverines will also miss 111,000 fans and the home field advantage they typically provide in this one.
Michigan 17 Wisconsin 23, 3-1

@ Rutgers: 109th Overall, 119th Offense, 75th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: Michigan by 24.2 – Greg Schiano’s return to New Jersey comes in a tough year for new coaches. Rutgers will improve on defense throughout the year, though.

PREDICTION: I worry this mid-November trip to Piscataway will produce a pretty flat performance. The Wolverines will need to manufacture their own energy and adrenaline. While I think Michigan will have to navigate some rough patches of play, the talent gap between Michigan and Rutgers is too wide for me to be overly concerned.
Michigan 41 Rutgers 10, 4-1

vs. Penn State: 5th Overall, 8th Offense, 10th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: Penn State by 8.3 – PSU welcomes back a lot of offensive production. Time will tell whether or not they can replace some major star power on defense.

PREDICTION: This game is the second of the 2020 season that Michigan will sorely miss the Big House atmosphere. Under Jim Harbaugh, Michigan has outscored Penn State 91-17 in Ann Arbor. I believe Don Brown and the defense will correct some of the big play mistakes from last year in State College. With this game being played during Thanksgiving weekend (the normal OSU weekend), I’ll be looking at run game Success Rate as a key indicator of who has the inside track leading up to this game.
Michigan 27 Penn State 21, 5-1

vs. Maryland: 84th Overall, 98th Offense, 69th Defense

PRESEASON SP+: Michigan by 18.2 – The first December football game at Michigan Stadium will be Senior Day. Maryland’s preseason rankings are below Power 5 average in all facets.

PREDICTION: The final home game for 2020 really highlights some of the folly of trying to predict the 2020 college football season. Right now in mid-October, on paper, I should tell you this will be an old school beat down. If (that is a BIG IF) all the key players are healthy and available, I believe that will be the case. On top of all that, you can add December weather forecasting in Michigan to the mix. The information we have available currently points to a fun day for Michigan fans.
Michigan 51 Maryland 6, 6-1

@ Ohio State: 1st Overall, 2nd Offense, 2nd Defense

PRESEASON SP+: Ohio State by 16.2 – Right now, SP+ would favor the Buckeyes over both 5-0 Clemson and over 4-0 Alabama by 1.7 points. It increases to 7.6 over Georgia, who is currently 4th and is coming off a 17-point loss to the Crimson Tide.

PREDICTION: I’ve used this space for two years to spout my optimism about Michigan’s return to level footing in the rivalry. I can still sell myself on the logic: The 2016 game was robbery. Harbaugh’s worst performing team in 2017 probably should have beaten the Buckeyes. Some very flawed teams from the Hoke era were within a play or two of beating Ohio State. However, Ohio State has somehow managed to improve as they navigated a coaching change and transitioned to a transfer quarterback. They are doing something different in Columbus. It will take a truly heroic effort from the Wolverines to win in the Horseshoe. The 2020 season will certainly continue to be crazy. Let’s hope Michigan puts an insane cap on it this December.
Michigan 24 Ohio State 37, 6-2
2nd Place in B1G Ten East

Cam McGrone will need to lead a herculean effort in Columbus to break the streak of losses to OSU.
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Michigan 27 Ohio State 56 – Week 14 Recap

WEEK 14 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 56-27, Ohio State by 29 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Ohio State by 11.0 (-18.0)
CD Projection: Michigan by 3 (-32)

FIVE FACTORS

Week 14 Five Factors box score

WEEK 14 RECAP vs. Ohio State

This became another version of The Game that looked a lot like Michigan-Ohio State games of this generation.  The Wolverines came out strong and scored on their first drive. They stood toe-to-toe through the first quarter at 14-13.  But, as the 2nd quarter and 3rd quarter wore on, Ohio State continued to execute and make big plays. Michigan ran out of steam and looked hapless as the Buckeyes pulled away.  

The offensive game plan provided a solid foundation for Michigan on the day.  However, the Buckeyes’ #1 defense gave the Wolverines a dose of their own medicine by choking them out after halftime.  The Wolverines could only muster 111 total yards against the smothering OSU defense in the 3rd and 4th quarters combined.  Plays were available to be made, especially in the 3rd quarter, but too many of Shea Patterson’s passes hit the wide receivers and then hit the turf.  As the clock turned to the 4th quarter, Michigan had completed just one pass in the 3rd frame. While Michigan’s 39% success rate is only slightly below average, looking at it by quarter is more telling: 53% (1st) 47% (2nd) 29% (3rd) 30% (4th).

While Michigan sputtered in the second half, Ohio State kept rolling.  The Buckeyes scored 14 points in each quarter by staying true to their identity.  JK Dobbins was explosive running the ball, and Justin Fields repeatedly hit deep shots through the air.  OSU matched Michigan’s hot start with a 57% success rate and 8.4 yards per play in the 1st quarter. Unlike the Wolverines offense, Ryan Day and his staff had the next round of answers for their opponents’ in game adjustments.  The Buckeyes’ 7.5 yards per play will likely send Jim Harbaugh’s staff back to the drawing board. That is the most Michigan allowed per play all season, including the early season blow out in Madison (6.9 YPP).

This puts the final stamp onto a frustrating season for Jim Harbaugh and the Michigan Wolverines football program.  With the experience and talent returning from 2018, this team had their eyes set on much loftier goals. The goals are the correct ones.  To achieve those championship goals, this program needs to execute in big games. There is nothing to do at this point but get back to work.

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By the Numbers: Week 14 vs. Ohio State

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan finished up the road portion of their regular season schedule with an impressive 39-14 disassembly of the Indiana Hoosiers in Bloomington.

NEXT UP: vs. Ohio State: 1st, 36.2

PREGAME SP+: Ohio State by 11.0, Michigan Win Probability 26%
The Buckeyes’ SP+ rating score (36.2) is 59% higher than #10 Michigan’s (22.7).  On the other hand, Michigan has beaten the SP+ projected margin in 8 consecutive games.  The Wolverines have outperformed the projected margin by an average of 14.5 points since Week 4 @ Wisconsin, and by an average of 21.4 since Week 8 @ Penn State.

Michigan Offense (26th) vs. Ohio State Defense (1st) 
With just under 5:00 remaining in the 3rd quarter, Ohio State’s Sevyn Banks returned a blocked punt for a touchdown to increase the 2018 Buckeyes’ lead over Michigan to 15 points 34-19.  This is the moment the wind left the sails for the Wolverines and for the fan base. With 19+ minutes remaining in game time, I did not believe the Michigan offense would be able to change gears to the hurry-up passing attack necessary to come from behind.  That need to be able to change gears on offense, I believe, led to the January 10th hiring of Josh Gattis as offensive coordinator. The early season transition costs were steeper than I predicted, and a Big Ten Championship berth is not possible. However, those transition costs were absorbed to buy the chance for success in this game vs. Ohio State.  In that regard, Gattis and Jim Harbaugh have this unit peaking at the right time with added flexibility to exploit scoring opportunities against the Buckeyes.

Michigan Defense (5th) vs. Ohio State Offense (5th)
Like Harbaugh and Gattis, Don Brown and his staff designed a sharp transition triggered by the 2018 Ohio State game.  The defensive evolution also came with significant cost. Wisconsin exploited major mistakes in the run game in Week 4, and Penn State did so through the air in Week 8.  But, as October turned into November the Michigan defense re-emerged as a top-tier unit. The Wolverines drowned Notre Dame in a first-half rain storm and the Irish could only muster 180 total yards.  Indiana’s passing attack leads the Big Ten in 2019, but barely crept over 200 yards passing last week versus Michigan. Don Brown does not have to be perfect in this game, but he will have to utilize every tool in his belt to bottle up JK Dobbins and Justin Fields on standard downs.  If Michigan can force the Buckeyes into passing downs (2nd & 8+ or 3rd/4th & 5+), the Wolverines’ speed personnel can attack Ohio State from all angles.

PREDICTION: The Wolverines and Buckeyes share 3 SP+ top-25 opponents: Wisconsin, Penn State, and Indiana.  Michigan’s resume also includes victories over 2 more: Iowa and Notre Dame. I believe this particular version of The Game sets up much more evenly than most analysts.  The Wolverines are averaging 26.8 points in 5 games against current SP+ top-25 defenses. The 4 top-25 offenses have scored an average of 22.8 points against Michigan’s defense.  Ohio State is better than those other teams, but this isn’t the same Michigan team either.
Michigan 30 Ohio State 27  (PRESEASON Michigan 37 Ohio State 33)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/26/19), 9-2

  • SP+ Overall: 10th (same), 22.7
    • SP+ Offense: 26th (↑8), 35.0
    • SP+ Defense: 5th (same), 12.7
    • SP+ Special Teams 52nd (↓3) 0.3
  • CFP Rank: 13th (same)
  • AP Poll: 10th (↑2), 913
  • Coaches’ Poll: 11th (↑1), 893
Week 14 Resume vs. Ohio State
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Michigan 39 Indiana 14 – Week 13 Recap

WEEK 13 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 39-14, Michigan by 25 over Indiana
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 2.4 (+22.6)
CD Projection: Michigan by 14 (+11)

FIVE FACTORS

Week 13 Five Factors box score @ Indiana

WEEK 13 RECAP @ Indiana

Jim Harbaugh and his Wolverines maintained focus through the week.  Many folks had this game circled on the schedule because it was: 1) on the road 2) against an Indiana team who gives Michigan trouble annually and 3) squeezed in between two rivalry games versus Michigan State and Ohio State.  Kudos to the coaching staff for keeping the players on task. The players really executed at a high level in varying weather conditions on the road against the Hoosiers.

Finally, Nico Collins had his day.  The junior wide receiver hauled in 6 passes for 165 yards and 3 touchdowns.  When the ball went in Collins’ direction and he didn’t catch it, there was likely a pass interference call on the defender.  He is a dominant weapon for Josh Gattis, and it seems like everyone has finally discovered that fact. Shea Patterson followed up his first 300+ yard passing game with a second one a week later.  Patterson had 366 yards and 5 touchdowns to Collins, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Ronnie Bell. Michigan’s 7.8 yards per play is their most explosive mark of 2019, and the most since Week 2 of 2018 vs. WMU.   

The Indiana Hoosiers have continually given Michigan problems, and their 2018 game plan was the kindling for Ohio State’s bonfire in The Game last season.  The 2019 game in Bloomington started in the same mold with Indiana scoring touchdowns on 2 of their first 3 drives. Then, the defensive staff made their adjustments and forced 5 consecutive punts and forced a fumble over the next 6 drives.  During garbage time, the Hoosiers were able to eclipse 300 total yards, and also managed 4.8 yards per play on the day. There may be a few issues to work out in the defensive film room this week, but it feels like there are plenty of tricks left in Don Brown’s bag for the Buckeyes next week.

Ohio State clinched the Big Ten East with their 28-17 victory over Penn State in Columbus earlier today.  On Tuesday night, the Bucks may be consensus #1 in the country in the AP poll, the Coaches’ poll, and the College Football Playoff rankings.  Ryan Day will lead OSU to Indianapolis to compete for a Big Ten title regardless of what happens in Ann Arbor. Jim Harbaugh has led an impressive bounce back after an awful start to the Big Ten season.  In terms of Big Ten titles, this team’s slow building improvement is too little too late. However, in terms of 2019 season success and Harbaugh era legacy, the Wolverines have everything to play for. The 2019 version of The Game will come down to which team’s players will rise to the occasion and show they want it more.  Big time players make the critical plays in the biggest games. #BeatOhio


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By the Numbers: Week 13 @ Indiana

LAST WEEK RECAP

A totally satisfying 44-10 pounding of the MSU Spartans highlighted the different trajectories of the two programs.

NEXT UP: @Indiana: 20th, 17.5

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 2.4, Michigan Win Probability 55%
In an interesting coincidence, Bill Connelly’s SP+ model produced the same prediction (28-25 Michigan) that I came up with in my Season Preview in August.  Another comparison for the Indiana game is Week 9 vs. Notre Dame.  The Irish also ranked 20th overall in SP+, with the 13th Offense, and the 35th Defense.

SP+ Picks are made weekly via Twitter by ESPN’s Bill Connelly

Michigan Offense (34th) vs. Indiana Defense (34th) 
Michigan comes off perhaps their most impressive offensive outing.  The Wolverines have improved 38 spots, up from 72nd after the loss to Wisconsin.  In three road games after Wisconsin, Michigan averages a 45% success rate and 5.9 yards per play.  In 2018, the Wolverines managed a 47% success rate and 6.7 yards per play. This contest with Indiana presents the final regular season road challenge for Josh Gattis and the offense.  Based on the matching SP+ rankings for Michigan’s offense and Indiana’s defense, Saturday’s matchup will likely come down to who can execute more cleanly. If the Wolverines can avoid major mistakes, especially turnovers, I expect them to move the ball and score consistently.

Michigan Defense (5th) vs. Indiana Offense (13th)
In last year’s 31-20 victory, the Michigan defense generated significant angst among the fan base.  Even worse, the Hoosiers’ success versus man coverage can be pointed to as a blueprint for the Buckeyes 62-point domination the following week.  We know these events triggered Don Brown’s 2019 evolution, making the test against Indiana particularly interesting. After dealing with the cost of significant change early in the season, the Wolverines’ defense is back into the top 5 nationally, including 5th in SP+.  The 2019 game shifts to Bloomington and opposing offensive units have had some success in road games since Wisconsin. The Wolverines allowed a 35% success rate and 4.3 yards per play at Illinois, at Penn State, and at Maryland. Also, because of the game waiting in Week 14, the prep for this game may be a delicate balance between executing vs. the Hoosiers without tipping your hand to the Buckeyes again.

PREDICTION: I made a big deal out of the 2018 trend in home versus road performance.  Michigan was +7.9 to the SP+ projections at home, and -7.1 on the road. That 15 point swing was particularly startling for me.  So far In 2019 the Wolverines are +7.2 at home, and a much more reasonable +0.8 on the road. I think Michigan will continue to show their growth on the road and will improve that +0.8 number.
Michigan 31 Indiana 17  (PRESEASON Michigan 28 Indiana 25)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/19/2019), 8-2

  • SP+ Overall: 10th (↑5), 22.4
    • SP+ Offense:34th (↑9), 33.8
    • SP+ Defense: 5th (↓1), 12.0
    • SP+ Special Teams 49th (↑21) 0.5
  • CFP Rank: 13th (↑2) 
  • AP Poll: 12th (↑2), 829
  • Coaches’ Poll: 12th (↑2), 851
Week 13 Resume