Final Score: 28-18, Michigan by 10 over Arkansas State SP+ Projection: Michigan by 28.9 (-18.9) CD Projection: Michigan by 21 (-11)
FIVE FACTORS
GAME 3 RECAP vs. Arkansas State
The coaching staff for the Wolverines committed to returning to their run first identity, and it paid off. Michigan finished with 301 yards rushing on the day. However, there was still enough sloppiness up front to give some of the doubters oxygen. The pass protection was still a major issue, and Davis Warren let it affect him in the pocket. Warren was pulled after throwing his third interception of the day. Alex Orji entered and led a scoring drive, but we still haven’ seen him lead an efficient passing effort yet. The biggest blow for Michigan was an apparent shoulder injury suffered by Coleston Loveland, the All-American tight end.
The defense spent a majority of his game looking as dominant as we’ve come to expect. Arkansas State could only muser 280 total yards for the game. Both touchdowns came in the 4th quarter while Michigan’s 28-3 lead would define that period as garbage time. However, there was also sloppiness to worry about from the D. Most critically, the penalties after the whistle must stop. Two drives were saved for the Red Wolves on absolutely avoidable penalties.
On special teams, we didn’t get a chance to deploy our most dangerous weapon, placekicker Dominic Zvada. I am sure he was looking for an opportunity to score against his former team, but no opportunity presented itself. Returns were muted all day by mostly fair catch signals. Punter Tommy Doman still has me a little worried. His three punts today averaged 39.0 yards. But, we’ve seen multiple punts this year of less than 30 yards, including a 29-yarder in the 4th quarter of this game.
We wanted to see a come-to-Jesus moment, but this game just underwhelmed those expectations. Offensively, I think we’ll get to see what Alex Orji is capable of. He certainly adds another explosive threat to the mix, and that will be a big boost if Loveland’s injury is serious. Defensively, they look closer to a finished product, but there is another major challenge looming when USC visits next weekend.
Michigan was outclassed by Texas in the Big House, and scored late to post a 31-12 score that looks better than the game felt. Davis Warren threw two interceptions, and the Wolverines’ defense showed they are human.
NEXT UP: vs. Ark. St.: SP+ 99th, -9.4
PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 28.9, Michigan Win Probability 96%
While the Wolverines were thoroughly outplayed last weekend by the Texas Longhorns, the SP+ model did not shift much. Michigan drops one spot to 13th overall. The even wilder quirk of the model is that Texas’ unit rankings each improved, but overall the Longhorns also dropped one spot to #4. Arkansas State is in alignment with average G5 teams.
Michigan Offense (67th) vs. Ark. St. Defense (124th)
This week is potentially a now-or-never moment for Michign’s offense. The Red Wolves bring a bottom feeder defensive unit to Ann Arbor. We can use any number of traditional stats or advanced stats to measure the offense this week, but I just want to see Michigan move the line of scrimmage at the snap. Arkansas State is giving up over 140 yards rushing per game so far versus Central Arkansas and Tulsa. This is a big week for first year Offensive Line Coach Grant Newsome. Michigan must re-establish their identity as a smash offense. Any of the quarterbacks on the roster require an efficient run game to open up explosive plays in the air, or even using Oriji’s legs for chunk yardage gains. Priority #1 for Michigan on Saturday has to be clean execution up front on offense.
Michigan Defense (3rd) vs. Ark. St. Offense (69th)
Maybe it’s unfair to keep comparing the 2024 Michigan Football team to the 2023 team that won the national title. But, if the Wolverines are going to maintain the program standard under first-year head coach Sherrone Moore, this defense will have to be just as good as last year’s unit. The major challenge to accomplishing that objective is the 2024 depth being much thinner this season. The Wolverines can no longer rely on a dominant performance from the 1st and 2nd units interchangeably. So, to have success remotely comparable to last year’s defense, Wink Martindale will have to find a way to get off the field when they have the chance. Hopefully, the offense will continue to evolve and improve enough to help rest the 1st team defense so they are fresh for the key moments late in games.
Arkansas State is almost exactly average nationally as an offensive unit. They are averaging 426 total yards per game so far against a couple low-level opponents. Quarterback Jaylen Raynor will be looking to push the ball down the field and challenge Michigan’s DBs who aren’t named Will Johnson. Raynor is also the leading rusher for the Red Wolves through two weeks. The Wolverines will definitely be rotating many players into this game as they try to shore up their depth. If they can consistently get to Raynor and hit him, they will have some chances to create a few turnovers in this game.
PREDICTION: This should be the last week where we enter the game with major question marks about how Michigan will manage personnel. If Alex Orji is getting more snaps, especially consecutively, then they see his ability as critical to supporting the run game. When Davis Warren and/or Jack Tuttle is at quarterback, the Wolverines are stating they think the run game will continue to improve without adding the QB run plays. Either way, the key players are on the offensive line. I am especially looking to see how Newsome is rotating players at right tackle.
The Wolverines have a major talent advantage in this game, and expectations should match that edge. Behind the scenes, we really need to evaluate how this group of leaders (both players & coaches) respond to being punched in the mouth. If Michigan comes out hungry, looking to prove themselves all over again, then we can all move forward with more confidence into B1G Ten play. I expect to see better balance and complementary football, but the offense will still be showing some growing pains. Michigan 27 Ark. St. 6 (PRESEASON Michigan 33 Ark. St. 6)
Final Score: 12-31, Texas by 19 SP+ Projection: Texas by 6.5 (-12.5) CD Projection: Texas by 6 (-13)
FIVE FACTORS
GAME 2 RECAP vs. Texas
The false start by LT Myles Hinton on the first offensive snap at home was a harbinger of things to come. The Wolverines did not look sharp at any position. When there were flashes of competence, they quickly dulled into a burnt orange haze. QB Davis Warren finished 22-33 for 204 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately, most of that came in the fourth quarter when all my metrics were removed as Garbage Time. Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings combined for just 14 carries and 66 yards, an average of 4.7 yards per carry.
My pregame prediction was for Michigan to score 14 points, and a victory would require the Wolverines D to hold Texas under 20. The Longhorns looked as if they could execute any set of plays they wanted, under very little pressure. I was truly shocked that Texas could amass 374 total yards in three quarters (!!) against Wink Martindale’s unit. Some of the issues were short fields and battling uphill. But, plain and simple, the Texas offense whipped up on the Michigan defense today.
Just as the offense started out with a bad omen, special teams also tripped out of the gate. Tommy Doman punted just 28 yards after the first series went 3-and-out, allowing Texas to get out to an initial 7-0 lead. There were no other critical errors, but the Wolverines were never in a position to capitalize on a potential advantage here.
In the grand scheme of things nationally, today was much more about Texas being good as opposed to Michigan being bad. But, that doesn’t make it any easier to swallow. The Wolverines need to continue to toughen up in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Every season-long goal is still available. The challenge is now one of grit and leadership for both players and coaches. Next week, Arkansas State comes in, and hopefully Michigan can build some confidence in a “Get Right Game”. Smash!
Final Score: 30-10, Michigan by 20 over Fresno State SP+ Projection: Michigan by 27.6 (-7.6) CD Projection: Michigan by 24 (-4)
FIVE FACTORS
GAME 1 RECAP vs. Fresno State
On the offensive side of the ball, the Wolverines sputtered from start to finish. For me, that was to be expected. There is one returning starter on this unit, tight end Colston Loveland. Everyone else is stepping into a bigger role, as well as new play caller Kirk Campbell. That doesn’t mean this should be acceptable internally to the team, or externally to the fans. It’s only context to understand why we saw some struggles. Quarterback Davis Warren finished 15-25 for 118 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Tonight’s backup was Alex Orji, and he chipped in 6.4 yards per carry on the ground. The improvement focus needs to shift up front on the line. Both pass protection and interior push in the run game should be much better as the season goes along.
For large stretches of the game, the Michigan defense was absolutely dominant. The Wolverines allowed less than 100 total yards in the first half. The defensive line looked unstoppable while coordinator Wink Martindale rotated in two or three guys at most positions. Then the Bulldogs managed to spring a few big plays. Surprisingly, those big plays came against All-American cornerback Will Johnson. Johnson finished with the last laugh after cashing in a pick six to put the game on ice for good in the fourth quarter.
In the kicking game, I had no idea what to expect coming into tonight. I leave afterward pleasantly surprised. Kicker Dominic Zvada consistently put the ball into the end zone on kickoffs. He also looked cool as ice while he banged home three field goals of 45, 53, & 55 yards. Punter Tommy Doman averaged 42.5 yards in net punting. And, both Tyler Morris and Semaj Morgan looked steady catching punts.
I am looking forward to crunching the numbers here and finding the appropriate context. I expected some struggles, and we definitely saw them. There were moments of horror, but also plenty of foundational strengths to build on. Next week, in comes a national championship contender to test the Wolverines. Michigan takes on No. 4 Texas at noon right back in the Big House. Smash!
On defense, the Wolverines will challenge to be the best unit in the country again in 2024. Junior tackles Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant will garner the most attention. Josiah Stewart and Derrick Moore will start on the edges, while cornerback Will Johnson returns to lead the secondary.
Michigan enters the 2024 season defending the 2023 National Championship, and as the three-time defending B1G Ten champions. However, the college football world is totally different with conference realignment expanding the B1G Ten to eighteen teams, and the CFP expanding to include twelve teams. The football program is also turning the page from the Harbaugh era into the Sherrone Moore era.
The new staff valued consistency on offense, hiring from within the program to fill coaching holes. On defense, every position coach is new to the program, but coordinator Wink Martindale was instrumental in designing the defensive scheme run by Jesse Minter in 2023. Finally, it’s August with a bright red target painted onto the back of the Wolverines, so we kick off the return of UMGoBlue.com By the Numbers analysis with this game-by-game preview of the 2024 Michigan Football season. In the By the Numbersarticles and podcasts we will compile, review, and summarize various metrics to look deeper into the football team’s performance while trying to provide a clearer picture of how the upcoming games may turn out.
The foundation for most of my analysis comes from the ESPN SP+ college football analytics model, created by Bill Connelly. While his system is meant to be predictive for making educated bets, studying the Five Factors is also useful for understanding what a team does, or needs to do, to win football games.
What is SP+
SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date..
When it comes to predicting the outcome of Michigan Football games, I’ve tracked my own record and that of the SP+ projections, both straight up and against the spread (ATS) since I started writing for UMGoBlue.com in 2018. I track the preseason predictions (locked in August), as well as the game week predictions.
Michigan’s 3rd ranked SP+ defense will likely carry the load, especially early in the season while a new starting QB and new offensive line take time to settle in. The 2024 season does not have the same slow ramp up that the 2023 season had, so the Wolverines will need to round into shape very quickly in September to manage one of the nation’s toughest schedules.
2024 Regular Season Schedule
vs. Fresno State: 63rd Overall, 46th Offense, 88th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 27.6
PREDICTION: The national title celebration will continue into August in Ann Arbor as Wolverine fans return to the stadium and check out the 2023 signage. The Fresno State Bulldogs are no pushover, though. The former home of Kalen Deboer has new leadership again after Jeff Tedford stepped away this offseason due to health concerns and Tim Skipper takes over. I expect the Wolverines to ride the huge blue wave of energy from the fans under the lights at the Big House and overwhelm the Bulldogs early. Michigan 31 Fresno St. 7, 1-0
vs. Texas: 5th Overall, 4th Offense, 12th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: Texas by 0.2
PREDICTION: The Texas Longhorns were right in the center of conference realignment frenzy when they joined the rival Sooners from Oklahoma and jumped from the Big 12 to the SEC. This is a program that is hungry coming off a CFP semifinal loss a year ago. While I have full confidence in Michigan’s defense to keep any game close, I think the difference is Texas’ experienced QB Quinn Ewers and returning 4 of 5 starters from a very effective offensive line. Early in the season, Michigan will still be ironing out too many wrinkles, and Texas will capitalize just enough to win in Ann Arbor. Michigan 14 Texas 20, 1-1
vs. Arkansas State: 93rd Overall, 65th Offense, 122nd Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 36.6
PREDICTION: While the Red Wolves may be contenders for a Sun Belt championship this season, they get a tough draw on the schedule here catching Michigan after a loss. The week of practice that focuses on correcting the inevitable mistakes that emerge against Texas will help propel the Michigan offense forward. On the flip side, Arkansas State will struggle to stop most teams, but could really get steamrolled with a wide talent margin. I expect to see one of the Wolverines’ best performances here, and they could really light up the scoreboard. Michigan 33 Arkansas St. 6, 2-1
vs. USC: 21st Overall, 5th Offense, 83rd Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 13.6
PREDICTION: The B1G Ten slate starts off with a banger as the USC Trojans come to Ann Arbor for a 3:30 kickoff. Miller Moss steps into huge shoes at quarterback, replacing 1st overall draft pick Caleb Williams. More importantly, D’Anton Lynn steps in as defensive coordinator, replacing Alex Grinch. In simple terms, I think the defense takes a moderate step forward, but the offense takes a larger step backward. The net result is an overrated team from Los Angeles. Michigan 27 USC 10, 3-1
vs. Minnesota: 47th Overall, 89th Offense, 22nd Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 23.3
PREDICTION: PJ Fleck is still searching for the formula he used to rack up 10-win seasons for the Gophers when he first arrived in Minneapolis. While the defense has been shored up, the offense still lacks consistency. In 2024 Fleck will turn to Max Hosmer, a transfer from New Hampshire who slings it all over. I’m skeptical that Minnesota will have it figured out on offense in early October. This could be a chance for a breakout game for the Wolverines’ pass rushers. Michigan 24 Minnesota 9, 4-1
PREDICTION: The rematch of last season’s CFP National Championship game will feature two very different teams. Former friend & trusted agent Jedd Fisch takes over the program after Kalen DeBoer moved to Tuscaloosa. The Huskies are also replacing nearly every starter from their high-powered offense from a year ago, just like Michigan. I am always wary of away games in tough environments, and Seattle definitely qualifies. It’s also the first road trip of the season, and a west coast swing to boot. I predict the Wolverines will have to find a way to battle and steal a victory in a game where they may not play their best. Michigan 21 Washington 20, 5-1
PREDICTION: Michigan returns from a mid-season bye week and hits the road again to visit Champagne and take on Bret Bielma’s Illini squad. Illinois returns a good chunk of their offensive production, but they need to improve in the trenches. I like their chances to take a step forward on both the offensive and defensive lines in 2024. But, this matchup doesn’t align very well for the Illini. They want to smash a defense up the middle, and that is the strength of the Wolverines’ D. This is probably another ugly game, but I expect Michigan to win the field position battle and to chalk up another W. Michigan 20 Illinois 7, 6-1
vs. Michigan State: 71st Overall, 121st Offense, 26th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 29.9
PREDICTION: Another program looking to turn the page into a new era is just up the road in East Lansing. The Spartans hired well when they snagged Jonathon Smith from Oregon State. The turnover in personnel will keep Michigan State on the wrong side of the ledger against the best teams. However, I expect them to surprise somebody at least once in 2024. The Wolverines will not be that team. Sparty still has the full attention of the players in Ann Arbor, and the Michigan faithful will be amped up to welcome the team home to the Big House. Tough break for State. Michigan 30 Michigan State 3, 7-1
vs. Oregon: 3rd Overall, 1st Offense, 15th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: Oregon by 1.5
PREDICTION: Oregon is a trendy pick to win a B1G Ten title in their first year in the conference. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel transferred in from Oklahoma and leads the SP+ top-ranked offense. While the schedule makers created a very tough slate for the Wolverines, they do get a small break hosting the Ducks in November. Oregon will come into the game having already played Ohio State at home, as well. I think that opportunity to scout the Ducks’ best shot will give the Wolverines’ defense just enough edge to slow down Oregon. Also, by the ninth game, we’ll start to see the Michigan offensive line really moving people up front. This game will plant U-M right back into the national title conversation. Michigan 24 Oregon 13, 8-1
PREDICTION: New head coach Curt Cignetti decided he wanted to kick down the doors on his entrance into the B1G Ten, calling out not only the rival Boilermakers but Michigan and Ohio State too. The Hoosiers’ roster has also been imported from James Madison University. Even if Indiana moves leaps and bounds forward, they are still not on the same level as the Wolverines from a talent perspective. That will show in this game as depth becomes a major factor this deep into the season. Michigan 28 Indiana 10, 9-1
vs. Northwestern: 75th Overall, 117th Offense, 29th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 30.3
PREDICTION: Michigan will come off the second bye week of the season and host the Northwestern Wildcats for Senior Day at the Big House. David Braun pulled a rabbit out of his hat in 2023, leading the ‘Cats to an 8-5 finish. Many pundits questioned whether they would win any games at all. I would be surprised to see the positivity extend into 2024, though. Northwestern will still struggle to move the ball against B1G Ten teams. And, by late November they could be sporting a very thin two-deep. The Wolverines will likely keep their best stuff on the shelf in this game with many eyeballs turning toward Columbus. Michigan 23 Northwestern 6, 10-1
PREDICTION: It’s a bit startling to see Ohio State head into a season with an offense ranked as low as 25th in SP+. The Buckeyes are perennially at the top of Bill Connelly’s ratings on offense. After pinning the blame for the 2023 loss on Kyle McCord, the program forced him out via transfer to Syracuse. In comes running QB Will Howard, and new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly to call plays. These two defensive units may very well be the best two in the country, so the team who minimizes mistakes on offense and special teams is going to win. If the Wolverines were at home, I would pick them to win, but right now I lean toward a Buckeye victory in the Shoe. Michigan 17 Ohio State 21, 10-2
3rd Place in B1G Ten CFP At-Large Selection – 8th seed
Senior running back Donovan Edwards looks to carry the torch passed on by JJ McCarthy and 9 other starters from the 2023 team. Edwards has scored some of the most iconic touchdowns in Michigan football history, but now it’s his turn to be the featured back.
